Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Thanks, Fess
by Super on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Bemused you are now getting into a particular field of expertise of mine.
I attended a far away Victorian provincial racemeeting yesterday. After extensive form analysis I advised a young jockey at the meeting where to place his horse from barrier 9 as there were 4 horses with speed in the field and specifically one that always led or sat second in the run. What happened my jockey jumped too well and led and was run down in the last 50 metres and ran third. The horse that always normally led sat back and with an older jockey on won!
Later in the day I also advised him but this time to lead on his mount even though it was carrying much more weight than the others. However, I did state where to go for home at a certain point which he did. The backmarkers nearly got him but he won by a short margin as the second horse flashed home.
Americain was ‘slaughtered’ by it’s French jockey in the Rosehill BMW yesterday and should have won easily – this also could be Abbott in the 2013 election campaign.
by Dr John on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:20 pm
And the absence of a handbag, don’t forget that. The nation is practically gripped in No Handbag Fever for heaven’s sake. Or at least that’s what Niki Savva and that horse trainer woman prefer to think.
Anyone who can deride people here (either implicitly or explicitly) for calling bullshit on most of the media’s coverage of federal politics in the last few years is obviously a newly arrived migrant with no exposure to Australia’s mainstream media, or a hermit who’s crawled out of the central Australian desert after being cut off from the news for years.
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Bill,
I wouldn’t waste the effort to write lengthy explanations of the situation with the media for Dio’s benefit. Note the mocking tone to his comment that “everything will be the media’s fault”. He has a record as a mocking ABC bias skeptic, so both feet aren’t exactly treading reality and both eyes may not exactly be what you’d call open.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Super,
If you really want cheering up, did you read Bill’s description of what is happening in his neck of the woods with the rail extension. Bill tried tried to them the libs would screw them over, because they were in a safe lib seat. They laughed right up until the saw they schedule of works or whatever it is called.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:22 pm
I totally agree with someone who criticised the ABC “Insiders” program that it is just journalists talking to journalists. This has been the demeaning position presented to the audience for a long time now and as far as I am concerned is a pestilence on the art of reporting.
I used to watch the program but felt genuinely insulted after a time and found myself talking to the television saying ” I dont give a rats arse what Annabel or Barrie or David or Piers etc think give me some reporting!You arrogant popinjays !”
Also isnt it time to have a whole broom through the ABC and get some younger insights instead of the likes the preening turkeys like Philip Adams and Michael Duffy.
by Harry Rogers on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Cuppa
You mean like Mike Rann, who was Labor premier for 9 years.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Mod Lib:
I am not “hiding” or even resiling from any comment I’ve made. I simply refuse to continue beating my head against a brick wall by responding to someone so determined to twist what I’ve posted.
I have better things to do, like work out what to have for dinner tonight. Vegetarian pasta or some description, or steak with roast vegetables?
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Dr John,
We had a nice young winner (country) in the family in the last couple of weeks. Wish I could brag but lips are sealed, we are hesitantly confident and scared as hell there will be an injury or something.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Diogones,
One of Mr Rann’s Ministers was the subject of an attack by two talkers on ABC Radio Adelaide. ACMA found the ABC guilty of bias over that incident.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Thanks, Puff. I think BB’s writing is top-shelf. He is also prolific! Puts much of the media (Hartcher, take note) to shame.
by Super on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:28 pm
ruawake @ 2097
There are people better qualified than me to give a definitive answer, but I will nominate a few points.
Bluegreen has had a lot to say about rhetoric and I believe he is right. How you express your message can make all the difference between it being memorable and catching attention or sinking like a stone. The PM has improved but still has some way to go. Same with some other ministers.
Now that a price on carbon is law, an advertising campaign is justified, but please oh please let it be better than that insipid campaign run in support of the MRRT (or whatever it was called then by Rudd).
Join a few dots. Coalition stooges in business organisations are bleating about the need to improve productivity, using it as a code expression for reducing real wages. Call them out and point to how true productivity improvement requires investment in infrastructure (NBN is a winner here) and skills (a good story on education, but could be better).
Make increased use of the likes of Andrew Leigh, Mike Kelly, Mark Dreyfus. Some of these should be promoted. All are good media performers.
by bemused on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Cuppa
One incident does not mean the whole organisation is biased. That is just cherry-picking. I’ll go with Rann’s opinion.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Dr John @ 2102
I hate to disillusion you Dr, but I think horse racing is the second most boring activity known to me. The first being, of course, AFL.
by bemused on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:32 pm
I would go for the second option you need iron to keep up your stamina!
by mari on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Just saw the Clown Counsel on Channel 10 news actually say ‘that Thomson used other people’s money to pay for prostitutes which constituted theft and/or fraud.’
Can anyone imagine such a bald and untested assertion being made by previous generations of politicians?
by CO on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Harry Rogers:
The ‘what the Sunday papers say’ segment is especially egregious. Nothing more than a publicly-funded advertorial for Murdoch’s tabloid rags.
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Diogenes,
And neither does a quote from one person (no doubt made with grace and diplomacy) mean the whole organisation is not biased. That is just cherry-picking which is why you go with Rann’s opinion.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Phil the Groundhog got it wrong this year. He predicted 6 weeks more of winter. Soon after this the contiguous US states enjoyed their hottest March on record.
wRONg.
by Boerwar on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:36 pm
mari:
I was leaning towards steak, but didn’t feel up to making a gravy for the mash. I don’t think I have enough flour left, and only have creme fraiche rather than cream to do the alternative of a wine, mushroom and cream sauce. I’ve never tried creme fraiche in replace of cream, so don’t know how it would turn out.
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Rann’s opinion is based on nine years as premier and was made after he stepped down. He criticised some media outlets and praised the ABC, SBS and Sky.
He is more of a realist than many here.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Dio
what do you call starting almost every political news story with, “the opposition says? And did you read that analysis of qanda that found, amongst other things, that the IPA had a large share of panel spots yet the Australia Institute go not one?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:42 pm
UK people use creme fraiche for everything, but I would forget the roast vegs have the potatoes, pumpkin etc as scallops on the BBQ with the steak, as I said keep up the iron for stamina
by mari on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:46 pm
confessions
Probably won’t help you decide,but we’re having fettucine and broccoli with a cheese/cream sauce. Last night was a rabbit stew – I like to alternate the meat/veg meals.
by lizzie on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:47 pm
It must have been an accident. or Dog. or something. This March 6,800 temperature records were set in the US.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/sci-tech/climate-change-panel-warns-of-severe-storms-droughts-heatwaves/story-fn5fsgyc-1226313109225
by Boerwar on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:47 pm
In my opinion there is one thing we can agree on. No matter the side or degree of progressive you are. The government is not getting the message of its policies out.
The question is why? I think the answer is easy. A hostile media. I think the fix for this is easy. Make he media pay the price for its spin. Schedule all government pressers for times people can watch it live. Provide two sound sources. One the traditional one at the podium. A second one for the press pack so we can hear the questions. This means the Canberra Press Pack will be up o very early in the morning writing copy. They would have to give up some of that wonderful time during the day to sleep. .
by guytaur on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Puffy
I often hear the phrase “The government says..” as well. The problem is confirmation bias.
Can you quote a single Labor figure who has complained about ABC bias?
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Nine years ago the ABC was nowhere near as bad as it is today. It was about nine years ago in fact that Howard began stacking the Board with right wing activists. Michael Kroger, Keith Windschuttle, Janet Albrechtsen for example. Why do you think Howard did THAT by the way? You think, just possibly, it might have been to bring about a shift of the organisation away from the centre to a more right-favourable position? A lot of people have commented on the ABC’s current bias. For example, Chris Wallace, of Breakfast Politics {breakfastpolitics.com}, speaking with Jon Faine, on ABC 774, 04 April 2012 said ABC is “centre-right”.
Um, yes, he’s certainly more realist than ABC bias skeptics.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Bemused why do you then use horseracing as a metaphor for politics?
I am sorry you have missed out on so much in life. Do you find posting here 20 hours a day exciting? If so at least read a Dick Francis novel!
And I’m not disillusioned – no more than reading Piers blogs.
by Dr John on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:48 pm
It will be great. Sour cream, cream and creme fraiche all make great sauces.
by ruawake on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Diogenes
Me
by lizzie on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:49 pm
mari:
BBQ veg! I hadn’t considered that.
lizzie:
I like to alternate as well.
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:49 pm
True and that always seems to be a lead story on News(the oppostion says” Didn’t I read somewhere Their ABC is now centre right in political reporting, leave out the centre description and you have it according to the”gospel” of Mark Scott
by mari on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:49 pm
I’ve seen Labor MPs on Twitter allude to it.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Dio
Mr Rann might have been watching the other Sky. Either that, or Mr RANn is wRONg.
IMHO, the sneering, the snarking and the cynicism on Sky is rank. It goes on, and on, and on. The panels are stacked. The reactionaries are allowed their rants and their dummy spits. The questioning is sub-calibre and the endless repetitions of Mr Abbott’s lines are how borement.
by Boerwar on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Didn’t Andrew Leigh do a study a few years ago?
by confessions on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:50 pm
And Bob Brown has publicly complained about the ABC’s discrimination against the Greens during the last election campaign.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
To be fair on that score I hear the same phrase used by local ABC radio in W.A. when reporting state politics . The IPA infestation is indeed a disgrace.
by poroti on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:51 pm
He is an ABC bias skeptic so that’s a pretty illogical comment.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:51 pm
BW
I don’t get Sky so I can’t comment.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Puff The Magic Dragon
Saw an NZ TV program recently – mentioned some local websites set up to reunite missing pets with their owners. Apparently it’s very successful. You would have checked with any similar sites in your area I’m sure.
Friends of mine ‘own’ a very lively pure-bred people-loving escape-artist cat, whose territory included inside the local church (especially with a congregation in attendance), inside the library and inside selected houses with open doors – a known and loved local character. He disappeared at about 8 months old, and it was assumed he’d either accidentally or deliberately been taken by someone.
He wore an ID tag and the owners also searched, phoned vets etc. Ten months later they got a good news phone call from a vet in a rural village about 35k away. It seems cat escaped from wherever he had been kept and called in at a neighbouring property to check it out. Luckily the neighbour is a nurse at the local vet. Being fairly certain there were no local cats of the breed, and that such a valuable cat would normally not be collar-less, she took him to work. A check with the microchip scanner resulted in the phone call to my friends, who were overjoyed, and collected him promptly. He was in good condition, and was very pleased to see his original family again.
With dogs and cats there is always hope and I wish you continued strength for your search.
Helen
by Helen2 on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:53 pm
You can also throw on bananas pineapple slices, I do thepineapple coated in brown sugar in a little selfmade aluminium dish so the sugar doesn’t burn. Leave the bananas in their skins
Lizzie I haven’t had rabbit stew since I was a kid I loved rabbit, did you finally clobber TA???
by mari on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Those defending the media. Saying it is a Labor problem, not a media problem, you just don’t get it. There was a reason the Prime Minister said at a Press Club function “Just don’t write crap”.
The media still is writing crap. That is the problem.
by guytaur on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:55 pm
It is quite entertaining watching horses being whipped in order for them to go faster.
Thiis is a reasonable approach to sensitive, sentient beings which made the mistake of not being humans.
I understand from racing industry contacts that this is to ensure that their strides are balanced. Something like that.
The bull riders and buckjump rides at rodeos are even more pleasurable to watch. Next time you see exciting footage of this, watch for the leather strap that is wrapped around the private parts of the animal concerned. It has no other function than to inflict bad pain on the the creature. Naturally it heaves and jumps and such like and creates a spectacle.
Of course bulls and broncs are not humans so it does not matter.
by Boerwar on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Dio
Wise choice. Sometimes I wonder why I do this stuff to myself.
by Boerwar on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Great speech by scientist James Hansen at TED (via the Drum):
james Hansen
by Super on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:57 pm
I’m not saying his bias skepticism is realistic. Clearly I do not believe it is realistic. As a general observation, however (and putting to one side his skepticism), he would be more realistic than those who argue there isn’t a problem.
Now, I know that sounds a bit convoluted, but frankly MD I don’t give a damn.
by Cuppa on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:58 pm
poroti
Basically, the ABC is lazy, dispirited and poorly-resourced. The IPA makes it cheap and easy for the ABC so they use them. I agree it’s a problem.
by Diogenes on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Boerwar
I know a quick fix. Make it mandatory that politicians in an lection race are treated exactly the same as animals. I think the lot of animals wpild improve drastically.
by guytaur on Apr 8, 2012 at 5:59 pm
mari
The rabbit had no head (it was wild, not farmed) so I can’t be sure it was MrRabbott.
However, it was a little skinny, probably owing to too much exercise, was meaty around the saddle and skinny in the legs. Pretty good likeness, really
by lizzie on Apr 8, 2012 at 6:00 pm