Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mod Lib
Not fully. You see, most people didn’t preference at all as there was no need to.
What I do know, from my branch meeting, is that the LNP won 45 seats – ie the magic number to win a majority – with over 50% of the PRIMARY vote. That is staggering.
In other words, they won the election without relying on any preferences distributed.
For a good Labor man like me, that is hard to take, I can assure you.
by feeney on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:49 pm
@Mod Lib/2317
You’re posts don’t help.
Where some positives for a change?
Anyway, I’m going to bed, this is a repeat of a repeat of a repeat discussion, bout time you guys grow up
by zoidlord on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:51 pm
OC @ 2344
I don’t know how you can say Rudd has no presence, just look how crowds react to him. I can assure you that in person he effortlessly is the centre of attention and interest.
As mumble pointed out regarding the alleged administrative ability, systems can be set up. A good deputy should sort that out along with personal staff.
I recall the first time I became aware of Rudd was when I happened to come across him on a TV current affairs program, Sunrise? Not sure. I had never even heard of him and just thought “who is this guy?”. He was on top of his subject and handled the interview with ease. Most impressive.
He went on to campaign well in 2007 and got rid of Howard. Three cheers! He then made some significant achievements despite the most difficult governing situation since Whitlam. Sure, there were some disappointments, but he was on top of Abbott and then he was gone…..crazy stuff!
by bemused on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:54 pm
It will be fascinating to see what the Katter votes did, although I accept it doesn’t matter much at the state level given the primary vote surge.
Its not so much in Qld, where I agree with you, I suspect all the ALP seats will be lost, with the exception of Rudds, which could be lost, but will be contestable- but all depends on what happens with KAP. Its a question of WHO the Katter voters are. I was amazed to hear from a Qlder (well before the election) that they would come just as much from the ALP as LNP, which appears to have been the case. If so, will they go BACK to the ALP, or will they be lost, and in what proportions.
I suspect things will be a lot closer federally than they were at state level, and Katter may do better now that he has the magic double digits.
by Mod Lib on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:57 pm
I believe Cuppa has a point about the ABC. It was nobbled by Howard and his lackeys. The ABC stood up fairly well against various attacks, notably from Kroger’s crony, Shiers. But it only seriously went off course under Newman and Scott. It’s questionable that IPA should appear on ANY ABC panels, let along swamp them as it has in recent years. It is a bunch of paid shills as likely to do a deal with Big Tobacco as Big Coal and Big Oil.
Scott’s attempts at tabloiding news and current affairs has effectively killed it from its original function as an independent news source.
The classic example is the natural disaster coverage last year. The efforts of Gillard in co-ordinating a national effort were buried beneath ‘beauty contest’ type of commentary about Gillard and Bligh, reaction to the levy and Abbott’s hamming it up. In contrast the NZBC coverage of Christchurch was comprehensive and supportive of the government’s aims. That simply didn’t happen with our government and the ABC.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Well folks, that’s all from me tonight.
Off to bed.
by bemused on Apr 8, 2012 at 10:59 pm
My 2317 was this:
If bloggers continue to keep their heads firmly in the sand about the ALP being on the nose what do you expect us to post?
Do you remember all those posts a year ago “Its all just temporary, everything will change once……”
and insert any excuse you want:
1. Abbott implodes
2. New Senate
3. CPRS is passed
4. Compensation is passed
5. The Budget
6. The New Year
7. The Leadership is settled
8. (insert whatever the next line in the sand turns out to be)
by Mod Lib on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Bemused @ 2352
The first time I heard of Rudd was when I was doing some work for Mal Brough in 2001 (pre-Minister days). A very big donor to the Liberals was all a gush about Brough and stated that ‘he was the most intelligent person in Parliament’. I later discussed this with a (National Party) ministerial staffer and started by saying that this donor had named the smartest person in Parliament – before I could announce Brough’s name the staffer said ‘did he say Kevin Rudd?’
by CO on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:07 pm
MM@2311. It’s all academic now, but I’m surprised that Rudd was persuaded to challenge at all, knowing how the count finally came down. If Albo knew he was leaking and harming the party I do think he could with good conscience encourage Rudd to challenge if he genuinely believed he had to. The leadership issue would then be resolved, and I could imagine him coming out for him so that he didn’t pull out for lack of support from someone of substance or numbers. He was very clear in that speech about his regret there had not been a vote in 2010. Whether it was a personal or a managed decision, his was still an honorable course. His leader was equally honorable.
I adore Julia too!
She’s forthright, strong and no fibber,
Stand-out model for any Libber.
Trace her career; right from the start
It’s clear that she’s no bleeding heart.
But, intelligent and aware,
She’s never anything but fair.
Questions on why she’s not married
Have been very lightly parried.
Which echoes that other ‘Welsh’ red head
Who resolutely refused to wed.
True, Julia’s not a Tudor, born to rule,
But she surely comes from that gene pool.
by PatriciaWA on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:09 pm
OK so you mentioned half a dozen policies.
What about education, health, defence, infrastructure, science and technology, water management, foreign affairs, industry, social security and immigration?
To name a few “minor” areas of federal governance.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Mod lib
My favourite excuse is that now voters have got there wacking of NSW labor out of the way they will re focus on Abbott and the libs.
My new favourite excuse is the above just add QLD.
by rummel on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:13 pm
mod lib,
I don’t give a flying fruitbat if the ALP is on the nose or not, at the core of it. I want Labor to enact as much of its agenda as possible before the maggots in our society manage to get them out of office and that bunch of whack-jobs lead by batshit-crazy Abbott. Being ‘on-the-nose’ is almost inevitable for the ALP considering the electorate is as weak as water after the Howard years.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:15 pm
What I find intriguing is that the conservative supporters can’t accept that some people support Labor. Some people support Gillard.
They seem to want people to turn around and say that they don’t support either.
Since when did 100% of the population have to support a certain party? Why have dissenting opinions become so threatening?
Surely, if you think your team is going to beat our team by 10 goals in the next election, all you would feel was pity. You wouldn’t suddenly expect us to start playing for your team.
The only circumstances I know of where people are really anxious for you to agree with them are where they are insecure about their own position. Recruiting others to their side bolsters their own belief.
As a Labor supporter, I don’t really care whether it worries people that I support Labor and what it’s doing. I think Labor is acting in the best interests of the nation, which is what a government is supposed to do, and as long as it’s doing that I’m happy.
Of course I’d rather it had a thumping majority and was cruising to an easy victory, but it’s not. I could spend every second of my day tearing my hair out, running in circles and writing long posts on t’net about how Labor is doomed, doomed I tell you, and that wouldn’t change a single thing.
Indeed, if every poster on PB did what so many here seem to want them to do, and came out saying that they didn’t believe Labor or Gillard could win at the next election, that wouldn’t change a single thing either.
So – rather than bolster a few insecure posters in their beliefs – I’ll just keep doing what I’m doing, thank you very much, and call the shots as I see them.
And I’ll let you guys do the same, too, without exhorting you all to become true believers.
That seem fair to you?
by zoomster on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:20 pm
If you want to know what I would do in those areas:
Education: something along the lines of funding parents to spend their own money on their children’s education however they want (ie fund the child rather than the school) would be my preference, obviously in addition to State funding of public schools
Health: Massive increases in Indigenous and Mental health spending so that they can be brought up to par rather than languishing
Defence: Massive cuts IMO. Indonesia aint gonna attack us. North Korea might, but not sure any assets we have at present will do anything to protect us if they do.
Infrastructure, science and technology: Increased spending on research, and more flexibility on spending (currently a straightjacket).
Water management: This has been a screw up throughout my life. We are either drowning or dry! We need some sort of network of catchments so that we can prevent this from happening again, and a parallel storm water and waste water system
Foreign Affairs/Immigration: The biggest impact we can have is to co-ordinate a comprehensive international system on the management of asylum seekers across the globe. We should double or triple our refugee intake, stop offshore processing and support our neighbours to manage their refugee populations with the money we save.
Budget: Slash the middle class welfare system to help pay for above.
Can I be PM now?
by Mod Lib on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Puff:
Have you noticed you take no blame for the ALP’s parlous state at present?
Blaming the media and “bogans” as many call them here highlights the problem: complete lack of insight into the internal problems within the ALP itself.
Enact away while you can, you are giving us free hits with the brand damage being done at present.
Every day Gillard stays in power is several extra days of Liberal rule IMO.
by Mod Lib on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:26 pm
There used to be a good term to warn us about just this type of person….. Oh yes , a latte sipping elitist.
So this is how the end of days for labor looks like. Pathetic spite filled hate for the swinging voters who don’t pay heed to the views of the elitist left. It started with bogans and now every one who does not kneel before the chosen one in the green path to enlightenment is a maggot. Labor will be out in the cold for a very long time with this attitude a pure hatred for the working family’s of Australia.
by rummel on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Mod Lib
And why should she?
When the Liberals lost in 2007, are you seriously telling me you felt it was your fault?
What kind of God complex do you think Puff should have?
by zoomster on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:29 pm
zoomster:
When Howard lost in 2007 many liberals (myself included) said that workchoices was stupid and the party got arrogant and took things for granted.
We didn’t spit the dummy and say the voters were stoopid bogans, and the media had it out for us, and the ALP were led by a wingnut (although in retrospect, based on ALP insiders we perhaps should have- not that they admitted that then of course!!!).
Notice the difference?
by Mod Lib on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:34 pm
One of the USA has repealed their equal pay laws for women. The wonders of the GOP, and as Abbott and his minions are in the thrall of the Republican ideals how long before women’s best friend Abbott slips that one into the manifesto?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:49 pm
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/11881989-wisconsin-equal-pay-law-repealed
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:52 pm
I don’t hate working families or bogans. I hate Liberals. They are maggots, fruit fly ones to be specific. They ruin all that is good so they can fatten their own bellies and they leave rotteness and waste where-ever they have been.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:56 pm
Mod Lib, what are you talking about, you are lead by a wing-nut?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Zoomster,
They can worship at my feet anytime they like.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 8, 2012 at 11:59 pm
On average, over the last 4 decades, Liberal governments have:
1. Lower unemployment
2. Higher wage rises
3. Lower inflation
4. Higher surplusses
5. Lower interest rates
…and most importantly of all
6. Higher economic growth rates
…than ALP governments. Hardly wreck and ruin as you suggest.
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:02 am
rummel
Latte is not coffee, I sip nothing less than a double strength long black, with a dash of full-cream milk, from Adelaide roasted Mon Java organic coffee beans. And don’t scald the bloody milk when you heat it.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:04 am
Mod Lib,
That argument has been demolished on PB many a time.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:05 am
That’s nice puff.
I hope it’s ethical coffee
by rummel on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:06 am
Mod Lib,
I hope you have the figures and references to back up that assertion.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:06 am
rummel
The Liberal Party thesaurus does not contain the word ethical.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:08 am
Well, the Tories seem to believe this tripe, anyway.
by smithe on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:08 am
Mod Lib @ 2363. That seems like a pretty good set of Labor policies to me! Hell will freeze before any of those policies become Abbott policies. Which begs the question posed earlier: why exactly are you such a strong support of the Abbot Liberals when your policy wish list is so at odds with what an Abbott government will deliver? Is it a case of blind faith, along the lines of “interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government” etc? At least we know what Labor stands for. As you concede, we really have no idea what an Abbott government wil be like. My suspicion is we are heading for a period of conservative popularism, which is unlikely to deliver any kind of meaningful change?
I think therein lies the secret of Abbott’s political success. With a mildly reformist government in office, and the natural aversion of most people to change, pure
” oppositionism” is easy politics. But does it result in good government, or a better country? I don’t believe so, nor do many others on this site. That’s why so many of us remain so firmly in the Labor camp, regardless of the polls.
From what I have read of your posts over time, you seem to be very much from the moderate Liberal tradition of the likes of Fred Cheney, or Steele Hall, or even Menzies himself. Not too many of them left in the Liberal party of today!
by Outsider on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:09 am
Not sure how that goes with this:
…but:
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1011/11rp12
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:10 am
What did you think the pock-marked wall at the back of Lib HQ was for?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:13 am
Yes Fred, not Dick: Remember that distinction!
I don’t want an Abbott government, I want a Turnbull (or other non-Abbott) Liberal government.
Have to disagree with this, but respect your team solidarity! I do not have a team. I think on balance a liberal government is better than an ALP government. I think there are many critical problems with the internal workings of the ALP: it comes from the huge over-representation of unionists, who, by definition, have got to where they are by using other people’s money (union members dues) to advance their own careers, as opposed to the liberal MPs who are more likely to have built something themselves (small businesses) and know the value of money- its not for flittering away on white elephants to bolster your own posterity.
An ALP without union domination and ipso facto, without the factionalisation, would be much more attractive to me, just as a liberal government with moderates would be utopia!
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:18 am
Right up there puff with the mythical labor surplus.
by rummel on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:18 am
Mod Lib.
Nice cherry picking exercise there, I see, and a total distortion of the results of the research, particularly when you left out the caveats. Are you looking for a job with Rupert?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:20 am
Puff, indeed, indeed! I was a long term Liberal supporter through my teens and twenties. I have followed the reverse trend, and become more left wing as I have grown older! Probably brought to a head by some professional interaction with one Peter Reith in the early 90s!
by Outsider on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:21 am
Mod Lib @2367 said re the 2007 election loss by Liberals We didn’t spit the dummy and say the voters were stoopid bogans,
That could be true but on the other hand Alan Jones did blame the result on single mothers having their welfare reduced. He gives figures too. Very thorough our Alan.
Election Fall-out 27 November 2007
Well, a couple of things may not still have been learnt by both major parties in the wash up after the election.
Sue Dunlevy yesterday dug up some very interesting observations.
The Howard Government in July forced single mothers whose youngest child was six to look for 15 hours’ work a week.
They went off the single mother’s pension and onto the lower payment, the dole.
Yet as she said, the 2006 census shows single mothers made up 19 per cent of the electorate in the New South Wales seats of Lindsay, Dobell and Page where the Government were thrashed.
In the South Australia seat of Wakefield where the Government was cleaned out, 20.9 per cent.
A shock result as the Government was done over in the North Queensland seat of Leichhardt, 19.7 per cent single mothers.
In Solomon in the Northern Territory which the Coalition lost, 19.1 per cent.
http://www.2gb.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4521&Itemid=134
Mod Lib also said We didn’t spit the dummy and say …….. the ALP were led by a wingnut
Possibly true in 2007 but definitely not true by 2010.
Direct quote from Alan Jones….
Fri 21st May 2010
Rudd “talks filth, he is a bile driven filth monger, a pig of a man, a mongrel” Also described Rudd as having Aspergers and being “personally responsible for the deaths of several people”.
Not to mention the old chestnut of Rudd destroying evidence in a child rape case and bribing the victim for her silence. I know it is technically not saying Rudd was a wingnut but it is close.
by Phil Vee on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:22 am
“got where they are by using other people’s money”. ROFL, that describes the Liberal Partiers to a tee, getting their hands on OPM is an art form.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:24 am
The Labor surplus is necessary to shut that squawling brat Abbott up.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:26 am
Phil Vee:
I will save you some time in finding any more stuff from Alan Jones: not a fan!
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:28 am
Outsider,
You met Peter Reith and didn’t end up with fang marks in your neck? Can you still see yourself in a mirror?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:29 am
Mod Lib
i guessed you would not be a fan but i have all this stuff and I have to post it somewhere!
by Phil Vee on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:42 am
Coalition governments understand Pie Theory better than Labor governments as a general rule. On the other hand Labor governments seem more concerned about Pie Distribution as a general rule. The Hawke/Keating government was a spanner in the works of this assertion being the best government in my adult life at implementing policies to ensure long-term we gave ourselves the best chance to bake the biggest pie given the ingredients we had/have at hand.
Unfortunately both Rudd and Gillard have reverted to more traditional Labor values resulting in too much waste of what pie we managed to produce. Mind you I am far from convinced Abbott can do much better.
We badly need a leader who can see the big picture and has the leadership qualities to communicate to and take the community with them. Sadly I don’t see that leader on either side of politics at present.
by DavidWH on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:44 am
yeah sorry about that ML, DVD it was.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:50 am
davidwh
That is a time worn tactic, the msm are using it well. When the Liberals stuff up or Abbott demonstrates what a tool he is, it is always ‘all the politicians’, ‘both parties’, ‘neither leader’, the ‘sad state of all politics today’. It is never that the Liberal Party has descended into tea-party madness, has taken all its wet-small-liberals out and shot them except for the few hiding in the ceiling, and installed a sexist homophobic far-right-wing economic and reactionary social policy upholding nutter as a leader. No, it is all politicians and how terribly, terribly sad it is for us all.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:53 am
MM:
Well, while you have been watching Charlton Heston being oblivious to the gay undercurrent of Ben Hur, I have just stuffed up a square in the SMH Samurai Sudoku, so now I am rightly peeved…thankfully I have the certain numbers in pen and the uncertain ones in pencil, so can rub out and start midway and not from the start!
AAARRRGGGHHHH…
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 12:56 am
The only pie theory the Liberals understand is that they get the banana caramel creme pie and the rest of us get the tripe.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:00 am
Only someone who doesn’t understand the tea-party would compare them to the Australian Liberal Party.
Even the Democratic Party of the USA is to the right of the Australian Liberal Party. Yes the moderates are dwindling in number, but our right wingers are not as bad as the USA.
You understand the implication of the Ryan plan (which Romney thinks is ‘marvellous’)?
Cut medicaid
Cut unemployment benefits
Cut taxes to the rich (he wants the top rate to be 25%)
The day the Australian Liberal Party goes to an election wanting to cut Medicare, cut unemployment, cut pensions and drop the tax rate by half is the day you can compare them to the republican tea partyers.
by Mod Lib on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:02 am
Only wusses need a pencil for Sudoku!
by Jolyon Wagg on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:16 am