Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.

Plentiful preselection action:

• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.

• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

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BK @ 2586.

Thought you’d particularly like the Deming ref.

by ratsak on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:08 pm
ratsak

add my admiration
(was waiting for the italics off!)

sure beats the hell out of my usual reply to the BS Coalition nutters: Eff Orf!

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Jesuz, have you people been hiding under the rock or something.

I have been calling Zoomster as Zoom on Twitter ever since she followed me and i followed her. She has never asked me not to call her that.

I blame The Finnigans.

by Diogenes on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Most (if not all) churches preach sexual orientation as “learned” behaviour; very much nurture as opposed to nature. Not surprising given the fire and brimstone in the Bible, but it got me thinking about Abbott, given he seems to pretty much be a “traditionalist” when it comes to church teachings.

As such, one would think that he would be of the view that sexuality is “nurture”, but given he was raised in exactly the same environment as his gay sister, one also wonders whether this thought is causing him some discomfort.

On the other hand, it can’t be too comfy living with the thought that if it is “nature” after all, then he possibly has the gay gene in his own DNA, potentially passing it on to his own daughters.

I know I’m a bit of a sicko, but the idea of the old homosexist grappling with these verities as he lies awake at night does rather bring a smile to my dial

by Danny Lewis on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Kezza

21 months into office and it is to be expected that Gillard will by now have many of her OWN policies to implement and well as implementing those which started under Rudd’s watch. Not sure that the three you named are the best to brag about though. SSM is a wish not a reality, uranium will lose more votes than it wins and offshore processing is toxic.

by daretotread on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:16 pm
I DON’T BLAME ANYONE.

So please let’s leave the whole subject alone now….

by zoomster on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Lets have a look at abbott’s leadership skills

1- News ltd and pro coalition media have no confidence in him as the leader of the liberal party & opposition

2- Peter Slipper gave his no confidence in Abbott’s leadership by resigning

3- Malcolm Turnbull by distancing himself from Abbott’s policies is showing no confidence

4- Andrew Robb by publicly not denying he has a problem with Abbott’s policies is showing no confidence

5- The liberal party and national party infighting , showing no confidence of Abbott being able to lead an stable coalition government

list goes on and on

by Meguire Bob on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Now the HSU wants Williamson to resign.

THE Health Services Union has called for embattled NSW general secretary Michael Williamson to resign, following a meeting of its national executive.

HSU acting national president Chris Brown ... said allegations levelled at Mr Williamson of kickbacks and nepotism were damaging the union.

“We have decided that enough is enough and for the good of the union and the members of the union Mr Williamson must go. There is no other option.” Mr Brown said.

by Diogenes on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:22 pm
And Richo gives a helping hand…

To believe Thomson never visited the house of ill-repute that appears on his credit card statement, you would have to believe that a person unknown stole his credit card, forged his signature, stole his driver’s licence - a copy of which was appended to the credit card payment - and also stole his phone, which was used three times between the Central Coast and the city of Sydney to call the house on the day in question.

Further, you would have to believe that the credit card, the licence and the phone were all miraculously returned the next day.

As evidence mounts of the systematic bleeding of union funds for a decade or more, Gillard must share the shame that the whole of the labour movement must now bear… That Fair Work Australia could take three years to prepare a report that for all intents and purposes is utterly useless is yet another bizarre twist in this sordid affair.

by Diogenes on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:24 pm
daretotread
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 1:16 pm | Permalink
Kezza

21 months into office and it is to be expected that Gillard will by now have many of her OWN policies to implement and well as implementing those which started under Rudd’s watch. Not sure that the three you named are the best to brag about though. SSM is a wish not a reality, uranium will lose more votes than it wins and offshore processing is toxic.

1. The ALP National Conference decides ALP policies, mate – not any particular leader.
2. I wasn’t bragging about the 3 I mentioned. I was saying they were NEW policies, decided on at the last ALP National Conference – did I mention that’s where ALP policy is voted on by the delegates.
3. Rudd started off with a big bang, but left a lot of the original swag of ALP policies left undone.
4. JG has done a great job in implementing ALP policy.
5. Pretty simple really.

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:24 pm
For Ferris Buellar fans

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/theater/matthew-broderick-in-nice-work-if-you-can-get-it.html?_r=1

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:26 pm
BK @ 2586.

Thought you’d particularly like the Deming ref.

ratsak
How right you were!

by BK on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Have to add my congrats Ratty. An excellent piece of writing and inspirational to read. Really excellent!

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:28 pm
1. The ALP National Conference decides ALP policies, mate – not any particular leader.

Not true, the conference decides the party platform, it rarely decides positions on specific policies.

I mean, did the sale of Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank go to conference?

4. JG has done a great job in implementing ALP policy.

Yes, she has been very successful at getting some good policies and related legislated implemented.

She is also deeply unpopular and has no hope of winning the next election.

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:34 pm
ratsak – good post and terrific talking points, thanks heaps.

Dio – Is this the same Richo who held off a Court case for years and then somehow managed to skadoodle his way through the muck and murk to now feel he is the giver of all things honest and true? Give me strength!!!

He should have been chucked out of the Labor Party for some of the sheningans he was involved in but instead we have him pontificating as tho he was the bloody Ark Angel Gabriel. The media just laps it up and the Libs have more and more ammunition.

I’ve been longing for the day when an old Laborite spills the beans on Richo but I think I’ll be well in the box before it happens.

by BH on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Danny Lewis

As such, one would think that he would be of the view that sexuality is “nurture”, but given he was raised in exactly the same environment as his gay sister, one also wonders whether this thought is causing him some discomfort.

It makes me laugh to think that the loud-mouthed opinionated sexist Bolts and Abbotts of this world have gay sisters. Must be terribly threatening to their machismo!

I know I’m a bit of a sicko, but the idea of the old homosexist grappling with these verities as he lies awake at night does rather bring a smile to my dial

I prefer to call it revelling in the knowledge that there is some justice in this world.

btw, I got banned from Bolt’s blog after objecting to his posting of pin-ups of scantily-clad almost pre-pubescent girls. Of course he defended it on the grounds of free speech. I was banned after I reminded him that he had young daughters and how would he feel if their images were posted for comment. (Didn’t realise at the time Sally Morrell was his wife – and chief moderator!)

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:35 pm
http://gaynewsnetwork.com.au/feature/feature/5813-matter-of-justice-and-fairness.html

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:37 pm
http://gaynewsnetwork.com.au/news/northern-territory/5789-major-survey-shines-spotlight-on-continuing-anxiety-discrimination.html

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:38 pm
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/04/09/study-homophobes-probably-harbour-same-sex-attraction/

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:41 pm
ShowsOn
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 1:34 pm | Permalink
1. The ALP National Conference decides ALP policies, mate – not any particular leader.

Not true, the conference decides the party platform

Well, terribly sorry – party platform then.

it rarely decides positions on specific policies.

Excuse me?
It did with SSM. It decided that parliamentary members would have a conscience vote.
It did with AS. It supported Offshore policy with an increase in overall refugee numbers.
And if you can’t see that Uranium sales to India was an overturn of ALP policy to a new policy, then I’ll go he.

As for your regurgitation of the msm

She is also deeply unpopular and has no hope of winning the next election.

Crap!

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Bravo Zoomster 2240. Wish I’d said that.

by Gary on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Pell Vs Dawkins tonight on #qanda. Goodie, so Tony Jones can play God.

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 1:57 pm
finns

Goodie, so Tony Jones can play God.

Or The Devil.

by Dan Gulberry on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Dan, methinks he wants to play God and ask Dawkins to prove that he doesnt exist

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Right Wing Daily Mail showing the love.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2127017/Wish-werent-Mr-Cameron-PM-wears-glum-expression-grey-Easter-break-family.html

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:04 pm
I see it’s been said here a couple of times that Katherine Murphy worked for John Howard. Can anyone point me to a reference to this? I certainly can’t find one.

by William Bowe on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Dan,

Thanks for that interactive demo. My boy and I watched it together. Mind boggling!

by Cuppa on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Ratsak

Great post.

It must be very confronting to the Liberalites who comment here. I’ll be very interested to read their retorts.

by Darn on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:07 pm
William

Can anyone point me to a reference to this? I certainly can’t find one.

I think you’ll find it here, on your very own blog
@ comment 567 on March 22, 2012 at 1:10 pm

Katherine Murphy is an out-and-out Liberal (albeit of the small “l” variety) and she used to work as an adviser for John Howard (I think on indigenous issues).

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:15 pm
OK, I take back the comment that people outing PBers should be banned forever. They should just have to spend a week in the naughty corner with Truthie.

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Can anyone point me to a reference to this? I certainly can’t find one.

She’s been a journalist at the AFR, OO and Age since 1996 so she certainly never worked for Howie while he was PM.

by Diogenes on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:24 pm
OK, I take back the comment that people outing PBers should be banned forever. They should just have to spend a week in the naughty corner with Truthie.

Ok Puuuuffffffyyyyyyyyyy, i confess, i am Spartacus.

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:26 pm
I had something a little more authoritative in mind, Kezza.

by William Bowe on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:26 pm
William Bowe
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 2:26 pm | Permalink
I had something a little more authoritative in mind, Kezza.

Well, apart from my stoush with said poster, it did seem to me s/he appeared to have some inside knowledge.

Murphy may have worked for Howard before he became PM and she became a journo.

I’m sure you have said poster’s email. Perhaps you could ask him/her privately.

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Well, terribly sorry – party platform then.

Apology accepted.

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:33 pm
ratsak @ 2572 – put the permalink of your post into another url…
http://tinyurl.com/7ejcy8t

and just tweeted it around if anyone wants to retweet it
https://twitter.com/#!/Leroy_Lynch

by Leroy on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Cuppa

It is pretty mind boggling.

It puts things in perspective on what Douglas Adams described as “an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the galaxy.”

by Dan Gulberry on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Dan
Thanks for the Scale of the Universe link.
And love the first comment “. . . no wonder I can’t find my car keys”

Any idea of the soundtrack?
It’s lovely.

http://scaleofuniverse.com/

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Article from the 23rd March

Home insulation, much maligned for its association with the scrapped government stimulus program, has helped propel a startling reduction in household energy use.
After 50 years of steady rises, the amount of energy used by Australian households has fallen to its lowest point in more than a decade.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/earth-hour/key-saving-strategy-bounces-back-after-a-pink-battering-20120323-1vnyj.html#ixzz1q1tchTeH

by victoria on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Dan

Mostly Harmless?

by guytaur on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Who is this Leroy Lynch dickhead, and why should I follow him?

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I still have not rwad it myself

zackster just tried to read Bolt's latest, it's 100% compost
about 14 hours ago

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/shes-out-and-hes-proud/story-fn6bfkm6-1226321586299

by victoria on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Must say that Murphy working for Howard wouldn’t have surprised me, but it does not appear to be true.

She wrote a stupid column on the Australia TV affair this morning, full of partisan buzz words (post #2412) and then ended it with:

Doing right via a debacle: that's the worst of all possible worlds.

It’s a sentence that has almost no meaning. It sounds sort-of OK at first reading (if you’re into that sort of thing), but when you acnalyze its logic you can see it’s just a smartarsed way of snarking off at the government.

How is it possible in any normal sort of world for a great result (which Murphy agrees the ABC getting the Australia TV gig was) mixed with flawed process to be the absolute WORST of all possible worlds? You’d think getting a lousy result, coupled with a debacle of process might be the worst, but clearly Murphy believes that would have been better than what happened.

Either that or she’s just blowing a cutesy, smary, smartarsed phrase out her arse, thinking that as long as it sounds lotsa negative, then that’s the BEST of all possible worlds.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Oops read

by victoria on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Why should Gillard change her mind on gay marriage? She isn’t stopping the rest of the Labor mps voting for it if they want to.

by Gary on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:45 pm
It sounds sort-of OK at first reading (if you’re into that sort of thing), but when you acnalyze its logic you can see it’s just a smartarsed way of snarking off at the government.

I’m taking two marks off for this, because you included a typo and used American-English.

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:46 pm
guytaur

“Whose ape-like descendants still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.”

by Dan Gulberry on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:46 pm
ShowsOn – I’m not asking you to follow me. Meanwhile on NBN news, some good bits on delimiter

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/09/insider-robin-payne-appointed-nbn-co-cfo/

Written by Navina Anand, Chillibreeze on Monday, April 9, 2012 12:01 - 0 Comments
Insider Robin Payne appointed NBN Co CFO

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/09/come-clean-conroy-turnbull-slams-brissie-nbn-gerrymandering/

Written by Vijith Vazhayil, Chillibreeze on Monday, April 9, 2012 12:16 - 13 Comments
Come clean, Conroy: Turnbull slams Brissie NBN “gerrymandering”

news Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accused the Government of targeting its own electoral seats in the National Broadband Network’s (NBN) rollout in Brisbane, where Labor suffered major losses in the recent Queensland election. NBN Co’s latest rollout plan for the next three years was announced several weeks ago.

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/09/turnbull-has-no-nbn-plan-says-conroy/

Written by Navina Anand, Chillibreeze on Monday, April 9, 2012 13:19 - 0 Comments
Turnbull has no NBN plan, says Conroy

news Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has demanded that the Coalition publish its policy platform for the next election in the area of broadband and telecommunications, pointing out that this is the third time, in as many months, that he has made this inquiry of the Coalition; asking it to disclose its broadband policy, the technology it proposes to use, and the cost to Australians.

The Turnbull accusation was pretty well addressed here…
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/04/why-the-nbn-rollout-determined-by-electorates-argument-doesnt-hold-water/

by Leroy on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Leroy Lynch

Dont take notice of showson. Enjoys being rude and obnoxious.

by victoria on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Richo must be enjoying schadenfreud – it was an allegation of using a prostitute on his ministerial credit card that started the well deserved decline in his political career
http://www.surfersapartments.com.au/surfers-apartments-articles/1996/2/12/one-last-favor-how-graham-richardsons-career-ended/
Let’s not even mention Virginia Perger and the Love Boat

by Oakeshott Country on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:50 pm

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