Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.

Plentiful preselection action:

• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.

• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

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I’m taking two marks off for this, because you included a typo and used American-English.

Still, 98/100 is a pretty good result. Better, even, than the BER.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Why should Gillard change her mind on gay marriage? She isn’t stopping the rest of the Labor mps voting for it if they want to.

Oh gee, I don’t know. Could it be because it would show some LEADERSHIP, on an issue that MOST Australians support?

Same sex marriage is supported by about 70% of people under the age of 30. You think it may be in Labor’s interests to appeal to that demographic? Labor should win the under 30 vote by a 2:1 margin at all elections. It shouldn’t even be close.

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Written by Vijith Vazhayil, Chillibreeze on Monday, April 9, 2012 12:16 - 13 Comments
Come clean, Conroy: Turnbull slams Brissie NBN “gerrymandering”

news Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accused the Government of targeting its own electoral seats in the National Broadband Network’s (NBN) rollout in Brisbane, where Labor suffered major losses in the recent Queensland election. NBN Co’s latest rollout plan for the next three years was announced several weeks ago.

This is a selfless, heroic move by Labor: sparing Liberal electorates from the uncosted, haphazard, shambolic NBN that is already outdated.

Turnbull should be thanking Conroy, not criticising him.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Fiiiinnnnnnyy
into the norty corner you go!
http://www.isptr-pard.org/corner.html

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Oh gee, I don’t know. Could it be because it would show some LEADERSHIP, on an issue that MOST Australians support?

Leadership be damned! It’d totally isolate Abbott, showing him up for the Catholic, Pell-controlled moron that he is.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Shows, i followed leroy. I learned heaps, . Links ect

Is it necassary

to speak in that way.

by my say on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Two good posts on NSW Attorney General Greg Smith

http://mrtiedt.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/poor-judgment.html

Sunday, April 8, 2012
Poor Judgment
The controversy over appointment of judges is (luckily) a spectacle that we are typically spared in Australia.

As a lawyer, and moreover one specialising in criminal law, I strongly believe that there are few things less edifying than "electing" judges.

There are probably few other decisions that should be as non-political. After all, judges are tasked with applying the laws made by the legislature. They are a separate head of government, and should be entirely divorced from the political arena.

http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/lukewarm-attorney.html

09 April 2012
The lukewarm attorney

So then, because thou art luke-warm, and neither cold nor hot, I will vomit thee out of my mouth.

- Revelation 3:16

NSW Attorney General Greg Smith is in grave danger politically. His agenda needs to be clearer than it is, and stronger, if he is to survive. If he goes on as he is he'll become a bigger target for the opposition than Robyn Parker is but without the personal affection and entrenched political support that Parker can command.

Smith came out of the NSW Labor Right and the broader Liberal Party gave him one of their safest seats, Epping, in 2007. Say what you like about the hopelessness of the NSW Liberals, but it is a genuine pity that former Epping MP Andrew Tink had to retire through ill-health and never became a minister while (take your pick from any NSW ALP arseclown who became a state government minister in their spare time) did. Liberals love all that prodigal-son stuff. Smith was spared the indignity of powerlessness that afflicts other fence-jumpers and blow-ins through a Faustian bargain with the Christianist far right faction headed by David Clarke. As with all Faustian bargains it was probably a lot of fun while it lasted.

This article tells us the bargain is off.

by Leroy on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:01 pm
(Oh gee, I don’t know. Could it be because it would show some LEADERSHIP, on an issue that MOST Australians support?)
SHOWS SAID,

Becauce the pm is an individual just like you , shows on,its not, a policy its a personal issue
Personally i am not against it, just cannot get my head around it, it doesnt hurt me , makes lots of people very happy, ncluding famlies, but it doesnt, have to be something you feel strongly about eitner way,

by my say on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:08 pm
(Oh gee, I don’t know. Could it be because it would show some LEADERSHIP, on an issue that MOST Australians support?)
SHOWS SAID,

Becauce the pm is an individual just like you , shows on,its not, a policy its a personal issue
Personally i am not against it, just cannot get my head around it, it doesnt hurt me , makes lots of people very happy, ncluding famlies, but it doesnt, have to be something you feel strongly about eitner way,

by my say on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Shows, i followed leroy. I learned heaps, . Links ect

But his Twitter account says he is a “utilitarian”, a completely flawed political philosophy!

If you make one person really happy, then it doesn’t matter how much everyone else suffers!

I will not stand for such dickheadery!

by ShowsOn on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Katherine Murphy is one of the reasons I have now ended my long time subscription with the Age.

It’s advertising slogan used to be “the paper for people who like to think”. Now, much of it is not even written by people who like to think.

by Darn on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:09 pm
[Oakeshott Country
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 2:50 pm | Permalink
Richo must be enjoying schadenfreud – it was an allegation of using a prostitute on his ministerial credit card that started the well deserved decline in his political career
http://www.surfersapartments.com.au/surfers-apartments-articles/1996/2/12/one-last-favor-how-graham-richardsons-career-ended/
Let’s not even mention Virginia Perger and the Love Boat
Spot on OC and we don’t mention that printing company do we?

PS Have you checked your diary for 11th May?

by mari on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Thanks Mari I got the message – not sure yet I will email you.

by Oakeshott Country on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Darn

grattan was the main reason I cancelled mine!

by victoria on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:14 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/08/religious-people-more-likely-leftwing-demos

Religious people are more likely to be leftwing, says thinktank Demos
Research undermines commonly held view that faith group members are more conservative
Jamie Doward and James Legge
The Observer, Sunday 8 April 2012

"We don't do God," Alastair Campbell famously insisted when journalists pressed the former prime minister, Tony Blair, on matters of faith.

But it appears that New Labour's high command missed a trick by declining to talk up their religious convictions, for new research suggests they would have been preaching to the converted: people with faith are far more likely to take left-of-centre positions on a range of issues, including immigration and equality.

Interesting article. I expect the result would be different in the USA for example, or many developing countries. Worth keeping in mind the difference between the loud mouthed conservative heads of certain groups in Australia and the general membership. Curious to know if similar studies have been done here.

by Leroy on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Not my understanding of utilitarianism, ShowsOn. Among the things measured in Bentham’s felicific calculus is “how much everyone else suffers”. What you describe would only apply if the happiness of that one person were immense, and the suffering of everyone else barely noticeable.

by William Bowe on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:21 pm
For BB

Murphy Analysis Diagram

Bad ProcessGood Process

Bad ResultWell this might look like the worst of all possible results, but don’t be fooled at least using a bad process to get a bad result shows consistency!Again don’t be fooled. You might have produced a bad result that will have damaging ongoing effects for years to come, but at least you used a good process to arrive at your monumental stuff up!

Good ResultTHE WORST OF ALL POSSIBLE RESULTS! I know you think getting the right result in the end forgives all sins, but admit it, you’re a failure anyway. Far far worse than getting a bad result under any circumstances. The ends can never justify the means!Ok maybe this one was ok. Would have been better if the Liberals were in government though.

by ratsak on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Leroy

a propos of that, I’m dipping in and out of a book called (I think – it’s in the car) ‘God’s Politics’ which is written by an American evangelist (but has a forward by Tim Costello for the Australian print run).

His basic contention – although he’s what I would consider reasonably far right on issues like abortion and euthanasia – is that Christ’s main message is about tackling poverty and that it’s thus inappropriate for anyone who claims to be Christian to be advocating on behalf of the wealthy.

I can only do it in bits, before my atheism asserts itself and I get cross with the author, but I’m dedicated to researching how others think…

by zoomster on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:25 pm
oh bugger. Doesn’t look like all html tags are available..

by ratsak on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:26 pm
BB @ 2574

She should think long and hard about this issue. Gay marriage isn’t being forced onto people who don’t want to be part of it. It’s important to those who do want it, however. Can’t do any harm, in my opinion.

Just catching up so a little late but I absolutely agree with you. Very well said!

by MTBW on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:29 pm
zoomster

Its worth persisting I reckon. I’m not religious either, but in the field of politics, and particularly in the ALP, religious belief shouldn’t be a point of contention above common policy goals. Plenty of potential allies for positive social policies amongst religious groups.

by Leroy on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:29 pm
victoria
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink
Darn

grattan was the main reason I cancelled mine!

Plus Peter Hartcher for me in SMH, in fact I don’t even buy the paper at all now and feel much better for it, I read online sometimes

by mari on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:39 pm
ShosOn

Same sex marriage is supported by about 70% of people under the age of 30. You think it may be in Labor’s interests to appeal to that demographic? Labor should win the under 30 vote by a 2:1 margin at all elections. It shouldn’t even be close.

Stats, shmats. What about the AEC’s estimate that, of all people not enrolled to vote at the June 2010 election, 70 per cent were between 18 and 39?

btw, Labor policy is for a change to the Marriage Act to allow SSM to indulge (see ALP National Conference 2011). It’s just that it also provides for a conscience vote, for those members who just don’t support it.

As for the leadership palaver: JG has stated her position very clearly. As leader, she has embraced all the views. She’s not a dictator.

anyway, why would she change her mind now? Could you imagine the reportage?

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 3:44 pm
BB

This is a selfless, heroic move by Labor: sparing Liberal electorates from the uncosted, haphazard, shambolic NBN that is already outdated.

Turnbull should be thanking Conroy, not criticising him.

Except Turnbull’s claim is not true, of course.

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:08 pm
OC

[Let’s not even mention Virginia Perger and the Love Boat}

Thanks for that reminder and Richo wasn’t the only pollie on board from memory.

by MTBW on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Since my last trip to the ‘how to view journalists’ re-education facility, where I was inculcated with the necessity to view Murphy’s journalism as delightfully comedic, I am now able to understand the last sentence in today’s article as the punchline of a stand up’s routine. To whit,

Doing right via a debacle: that's the worst of all possible worlds.

I can now visualise the raised eyebrow, the ironic tone, the rolling eyes, the wry grin and the invitation to engage in the side-splitting, funny-bone-tickled-to-the-nth-degree hilarity when she hits the word “worst” –

quite obviously Katharine Murphy means totally the opposite of worst: it is the “best” possible outcome.

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:19 pm
ratsak
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 12:16 pm | Permalink
DavidWH from last night @ 2393

Coalition governments understand Pie Theory better than Labor governments as a general rule. On the other hand Labor governments seem more concerned about Pie Distribution as a general rule.

Typical Libs gibberish. The Libs are like those CEOs focused solely on their next bonus. They have no care for the long term because they’ll have been long gone when the mess they’ve created has to be cleaned up. They neglect investment and training and any other long-term thinking because these things are ‘expensive’. Much better to run down the capital, reward their supporters with big cash handouts and shout about how clever they are. The dopes think that innovation, quality, and productivity are achieved in only one way – tear down the pay and conditions of the poorest paid members of our society. They think growing the pie is feeding whatever bubble is developing, whether it is housing and personal debt in the early 2000s or mining now, with no thought nor concern for the longer term problems caused......

And another one. Well done ratsak

We’ve had some world class rants here today. Poor DavidWH. His pie will never be the same again. There’s just no response to this stuff.

That’s what I call selling the message.

by smithe on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:22 pm
The Lib’s have expertise in pies.
1. Pork pies
2. Joe’s cream pies

by BK on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:24 pm
BK
3. Pie in the sky.

by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Except Turnbull’s claim is not true, of course.

It isn’t?

But I thought Turnbull was the Messiah.

Even Laborites like him the bestest.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:28 pm
I bet these days, Fakebook will provide all the clues you need:

Tulsa, Oklahoma (CNN) -- Two white men accused in a spate of shootings in predominantly black neighborhoods of Tulsa, Oklahoma, will make their first court appearance Monday, as authorities work to determine whether the violence that left three people dead was racially motivated. Authorities are digging into the backgrounds of Jake England, 19, and Alvin Watts, 33, who are charged with three counts of murder and two counts of shooting with intent to kill in connection with last week's shootings that also wounded two people.................

As part of the investigation, authorities were examining England's use of a racial slur on his Facebook page to mark the anniversary of his father's 2010 killing. A day before the shootings, England wrote on his Facebook page that it was the second anniversary of his father's death "at the hands of a f***ing nigger." The entry also noted his girlfriend's recent suicide.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/04/09/us/oklahoma-shootings/

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Since my last trip to the ‘how to view journalists’ re-education facility, where I was inculcated with the necessity to view Murphy’s journalism as delightfully comedic, I am now able to understand the last sentence in today’s article as the punchline of a stand up’s routine. To whit,

Doing right via a debacle: that's the worst of all possible worlds.

I can now visualise the raised eyebrow, the ironic tone, the rolling eyes, the wry grin and the invitation to engage in the side-splitting, funny-bone-tickled-to-the-nth-degree hilarity when she hits the word “worst” –

Murphy doesn’t get it still. On twitter she wrote to me that all she was trying to do was to say that there were “two coexistent states” in operation.

When I pressed her on the gratuitous – and illogical – “worst of all possible worlds”, involving a result she said she applauded, she went off the air.

Clearly I am too thick to understand the subtleties of advanced Katharinism.

But buk up Kezza, the next lesson at The Journalists’ Re-Education Facility involves a scattalogical and chaos theory-based analysis of a selection of Annabel Crabb articles.

Should be compelling.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Cheer up

I have bee spending Easter watching series 1 of a Game of Thrones

Makes the doings of Julia, Tony, Kevin, Billy boy and the rest seem trivial.

If this were the middle ages heads would roll – literally.

Weird thing about game of thrones is that if you get rid of the dragons and a few mystical bits you have Britain circa 1400, knights, heads rolling, battles and intrigue.

by daretotread on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Two white men accused in a spate of shootings in predominantly black neighborhoods of Tulsa, Oklahoma, will make their first court appearance Monday

Finns
These are the two perps. Such nice looking types!
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/561257/thumbs/s-OKLAHOMA-SHOOTING-SPREE-large300.jpg

by BK on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:38 pm
smithe

And another one. Well done ratsak

We’ve had some world class rants here today. Poor DavidWH. His pie will never be the same again. There’s just no response to this stuff.

That’s what I call selling the message.

Pie Theory is actually P.I.E. Theory.

The P.I.E. Theory posits that career success is based on Performance – 10%, Image – 30% and Exposure – 60%

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:43 pm
zoomster
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

Leroy

a propos of that, I’m dipping in and out of a book called (I think – it’s in the car) ‘God’s Politics’ which is written by an American evangelist (but has a forward by Tim Costello for the Australian print run).

His basic contention – although he’s what I would consider reasonably far right on issues like abortion and euthanasia – is that Christ’s main message is about tackling poverty and that it’s thus inappropriate for anyone who claims to be Christian to be advocating on behalf of the wealthy.

Not as far-getched as it might seem. In SA at least until the end of the 1950s, a majority of christians were Methodists (36% I believe). While it embraced all political points of the compass a large proportion were Labor-voting and committed to the betterment of the less well-off – which they believed was consistent with their theological beliefs. The largish proportion of Cornish migrants no doubt played a part.

The radio station 5KA was jointly owned by the Labor party and the Methodist church. Interstate, the Rev Alan Walker (founder of Lifeline) formed a lot of his beliefs around the injustices borne by the coal mining communities in the Hunter.

by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:45 pm
BB,

I’m looking forward to her best seller: Chaos Theory or, Hockeynomics for Dummies.

by This little black duck on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Tonight #qanda, Pell Vs Dawkins, is it Christian Vs Lion? or Christian Vs Gladiator?

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Yes, God’s Politics by Jim Wallis.

Some snippets:

he...was sincerely puzzled ove rhow some people could think Jesus could ever support tax cuts for the rich while the poor saw their meagre resources slashed...

They know that Jesus wasn't pro rich, pro war and only pro American.

Why do 'family values' groups support...the right wing economic agenda when it hurts so many low low income families? And how can some ...claim God is pro War? ...Jesus was on the side of the poor and the cause of peace.

He also talks of the need to ‘love’ terrorists (as in, to condemn their actions but try and understand their motivations) and the need to understand that America isn’t either perfect (and thus beyond criticism) or that it has been singled out by God for special consideration.

So he’s saying a lot of things which fit in well with my basic philosophies (which are, after all, largely born of my Christian childhood) but we part terms when it comes to issues such as abortion.

by zoomster on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:55 pm
BB

the next lesson at The Journalists’ Re-Education Facility involves a scattalogical and chaos theory-based analysis of a selection of Annabel Crabb articles.

Should be compelling.

Must have missed the Crabbe (“always check the sideways movement”) enrolment date.

I’m booked for the following metrics

“Understanding Sheridan” a special lecture by Hyacinth Bucket.
“Oakes are really huggable trees: acorns for everyone”
“Grattan stands for gratifying not gratuitous”
“Franklin is a River in Tasmania: deep, slow-moving, worth preserving”
“Shanahan is really Hanrahan: understanding ruination from the Irish”

PLUS P.I.E. Theory

And that’s just one day!

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:57 pm
the need to understand that America isn’t either perfect (and thus beyond criticism) or that it has been singled out by God for special consideration.

Zoom, just wondering who was Wallis referring to? i thought that was self evident.

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 4:58 pm
BB

When I pressed her on the gratuitous – and illogical – “worst of all possible worlds”, involving a result she said she applauded, she went off the air.

I was wondering how that exchange was working out.
Thanks for the update.

You’d think she would have told you about IRONY.

by kezza2 on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:00 pm
.....A day before the shootings, England wrote on his Facebook page that it was the second anniversary of his father's death "at the hands of a f***ing nigger."...

I doubt even our very own Clouseau, Sen Brandis, could miss that one.

Still, he’s probably trying to check out Thommo’s alibi for the time.

by smithe on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:02 pm
As it’s the day for rants here’s mine, about Easter.

Why do Aussies whoi have no Catholic beliefs whatsoever insist on stuffing themselves with seafood at Easter? Ask any of these gluttons why they are buying bags full of imported, frozen, ‘thawed for your convenience’ muck dredged from some polluted Asian waterway about a year ago and saved up by the importers for the Great Annual Easter Seafood Pig-out and they’ll tell you it’s because ‘You have to eat fish on Good Friday’/ Well, errr, no, you don’t. Not even if you are a devout Catholic. All that’s asked is that Catholics (not Anglicans, not those who belong to the Uniting Church, not the Baptists or assorted happy clappers) abstain from eating meat on Good Friday. That’s it. No rules at all that make shovelling in a few tonnes of seafood compulsory for all and sundry. So why do they do it?

And those damn buns – why do Hot Cross Buns now come in weird flavours like white chocolate and cranberry, or, for God’s sake, mocha? What’s wrong with the traditional finger bun dough with a bit of spice chucked in?

by leone on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Oh gee, I don’t know. Could it be because it would show some LEADERSHIP, on an issue that MOST Australians support?

Not if you disagree with it.

by Gary on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:04 pm
If the PM said she supported SSM when she really didn’t. Wouldn’t this make her a Liberal?

by ruawake on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Why do Aussies whoi have no Catholic beliefs whatsoever insist on stuffing themselves with seafood at Easter?

i chomp extra red meat at Easter plus plenty of red herrings

by The Finnigans on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:10 pm
The fact is if gay marriage is so popular then most Labor mps will vote for it. Do the indies support it?

by Gary on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:10 pm
An occasional rant is good for your stress levels.

by DavidWH on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Irony piled on irony.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-09/chinese-asylum-seekers-camp-in-darwin-en-route-to-nz/3939652

Ten Chinese Nationals who were on their way to New Zealand to seek asylum have been camping at ferry terminal in Darwin.

The group left Malaysia on a yacht last month aiming to get to New Zealand. But they ran out of food and since Thursday have been spending their days in one of Darwin's ritziest suburbs, Cullen Bay.

by lizzie on Apr 9, 2012 at 5:21 pm

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