Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
mysay I am the easter goldfish. I leave lincoln logs in your sock drawer.
I used to think that there was no way that Labor was doing as badly as all these polls are telling us – I used to think that the primary vote in particular was ridiculously low and they could never go that low in an actual election. But then Queensland happened and now I’m not sure.
It seems incredible to me that Tony Abbott could be elected PM – my first impression when he was elected leader was that he had “unelectable” written all over him. There is a sort of schoolboyish immaturity about him which I had assumed would put off all but the most hardened of liberal voters.
But then Labor made Julia Gillard leader and what a disaster she’s been. It has been incredible to watch. I think I am not the only one who is coming to accept that Tony Abbott is going to be the next Prime Minister. It will certainly be interesting to see how he does.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Diog
I think the NRL gets Good Friday and the AFL gets Anzac Day.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Diogenes@41
To expand on your post:
Fair Work Australia is the national workplace relations tribunal. It is an independent body with power to carry out a range of functions relating to:
the safety net of minimum wages and employment conditions
enterprise bargaining
industrial action
dispute resolution
termination of employment
other workplace matters.
That’s a lot more than just investigations.
by Brian Mc on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:58 pm
kezza2
[It is also facing police probes in NSW and Victoria and an independent investigation, instigated by concerned HSU officials, by former anti-corruption boss Ian Temby QC.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/actu-suspends-troubled-health-union-20120405-1wepf.html#ixzz1r9PZzGqF}
Front page SMH
by MTBW on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:59 pm
http://support.ipa.org.au/
The IPA says that freedom of speech is under attack and is starting a fighting fund.
Unbelievable that the org which gets endless free time on media thinks that truth is being silenced.
George Orwell where are you?
by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:00 pm
DavidWH
Who would be at fault if FWA gave privileged information to the Victorian Police and a Judge found that all the evidence was inadmissible and threw the case out of court?
The legalities are a minefield, and I am sure all authorities are trying the best they can to ensure a fair outcome, that is why Abbott’s actions are so reprehensible.
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:01 pm
i.e. post the link(s) or tell the audio.
If you can’t do that, then you’re just making it up, com-rade!
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Since it’s Easter, I want a Bunny for my Nanny, thank you Mr. @TonyAbbottMHR – http://www.scavengeinc.com/images/Product/medium/dg/playboy-bunny-dress-3527.jpg
by The Finnigans on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:02 pm
LSL
Is it difficult to type with just one hand on the keyboard?
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:02 pm
kezza
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:02 pm
It will be even worse for Coalition for hedging their bets on Thompson.
Keep calm everyone, let Coalition blow them selves up in Time.
by zoidlord on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Diogenes old son – Shabbat Shalom!
by Dr John on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Dr J
I don’t even know if Good Friday is a Jewish holiday or not.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Kezza I think it was covered in the solicitors advice to FWA.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/actu-suspends-troubled-health-union-20120405-1wepf.html#ixzz1r9PZzGqF
Front page SMH]
And?
Diog @n 59
And?
Your post proves nothing.
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:12 pm
I hope one of Abbott’s daughters is rushing to her father’s side with a king-sized supply of whatever medication keeps him borderline sane. He’s going to need it. The bloke is unhinging before our eyes and it is wonderful to see.
It’s amazing how what was supposed to be a simple plan can unravel. It was meant to be so easy – accuse Thomson, he’s found guilty, get a motion of no confidence through the house and hey presto, the keys to The Lodge appear in Abbott’s hand. Who would ever have thought Thomson would be innocent?
I look forward to the msm beginning to talk about Abbott’s bungled attempt to win government. Sadly I think I’ll be waiting a very long time.
by leone on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:12 pm
kezza2
I sourced it and your reply was
You never asked for proof you asked for a source.
by MTBW on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:16 pm
No, I have had a lot of practice.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Don ‘t think, DavidWH
Just post the links.
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:17 pm
kezza
You asked for evidence that FWA was requested by the NSW and Vic police to hand over its stuff.
The article confirms that and explains why FWA didn’t hand it over.
It’s there in black and white.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:17 pm
DavidWH
FWA is NOT an government department. It is a COMPLETELY independent statutory authority.
Thus ANY withholding is done for a reason – one that has NOTHING to do with government.
by jenauthor on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:18 pm
The Three Little Words You Can’t Say In Australia
05 April 2012 , 6:00 PM by Kelly Higgins-Devine
Well worth a listen. The three words are “I Adore Julia”.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2012/04/the-three-little-words-you-cant-say-in-australia.html?site=brisbane&program=612_afternoons
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:18 pm
So, MTBW – are you DavidWH?
Terribly sorry if I don’t follow your sourcing when I speak to DWH.
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:20 pm
DavidWH
How did you get hold of confidential solicitors advice?
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Diog
Good Friday was the one day of the year that Catholics said specifically anti-semitic prayers. The prayers were banned in 1964 but the current pope has let them back in some circumstances. Cynics have said it is something to do with this:
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=pope+nazi&hl=en&safe=off&client=safari&tbo=d&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=FVZ9T9WwEcmqrAfbg5nODA&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CFIQ_AUoAQ&biw=768&bih=900
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Guytaur, in the NRL we have the Anzac day blockbuster between the mighty Dragons and the chooks {Easts}. Love it. Usually get the Dragons/Pies as winners
by outside left on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Jen I haven’t and don’t blame the government for the information being withheld other than the legislation setting up the FWA may require review. Personally I don’t believe the government has done anything wrong.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:23 pm
kezza2
You are being ridiculous!
by MTBW on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:23 pm
OS
Not an apologist, but, IMHO, that is a disgusting set of images.
by Boerwar on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Guytaur the advice was released publicly two days ago.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Would you people believe a press release from FWA that says;
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/04/03/1226317/836520-aus-news-file-fwa-release-on-hsu.pdf
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Outside Left
That is what I get for ignoring NRL. This because I always have thought it is marginally better than Grid Iron.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:26 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/west-australian-journalists-score-small-victory-against-gina-rinehart-20120405-1weqa.html
May there be more
by mari on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:27 pm
BW
(andall) I apologise I was being a smart arse and trying to link the authentic image of Benedict in his Hitler Youth uniform. I don’t know hoe the link ended up as it did. I also recognise that he may have joined the HJ under compulsion but I am appaled that he has allowed the Tridentines to use the prayers.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:27 pm
I have no idea why you reposted, LL.
Your posts are condescending for no good reason, you have nothing to feel superior about. Your posts add nothing to the discussion, and drive by posts like that are a pox on the blog.
As Gary says, scroll through fast.
by don on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Correction. You know what I meant. Don’t pretend otherwise.
However, if you wish to
Take meout of context
Usual crap from those who don’t have a credible argument.
In fact,
You are being ridiculous!
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:28 pm
[Oakeshott Country
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
Diog
Good Friday was the one day of the year that Catholics said specifically anti-semitic prayers. The prayers were banned in 1964 but the current pope has let them back in some circumstances. Cynics have said it is something to do with this:
http://www.google.com.au/search?
Glad you are back in Gods own country, could you check your email please re MCC PB get together
by mari on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:28 pm
43.4 v 55.5 is another backwards step from 54/46.
Not good. At all.
by Boerwar on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Especiallylconsidering that, until Abbott’s lot realised that Craig Thomson’s demise might hand him government, the HSU “scandal” was seen by many (most) as a “so bad it’s hilarious” down-market Jacksons & Thompsons & Williamsons Bold and the Beautiful-style soap-opera with a Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned Matriarch at its centre.
If I could create a saga-script like HSU’s, I’d be writing online for Bell & Bell Hollywood!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:29 pm
The legislation is exactly the same as it was under the Industrial Relations Commission legislation introduced by Tony Abbott. Nothing has changed, if the legislation is faulty it is Tony Abbott’s fault.
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Does anyone here think the recent behviour of Tone and his henchmen has created an adverse impression?
I only ask because I just went to the shops to buy seafood and a lady and gentlemen in frint of me were talking about ‘Abbott’s bizarre behaviour’.
by Space Kidette on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:30 pm
DavidWH
Where? All i havevseen are statements that legal advice was not to release. Not the reasons for or against which is what you get in solicitors advice. Have to be pedantic in such thing with allnthis hot air accusations being thrown around.
What that means is that until proven otherwise we can assume that a non release is to protect the reputations of the innocent and preserve prospects of a fair trial for the guilty.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:30 pm
leroy@33:
Kind of gives the lie to all those who say the NBN is a waste of money, doesn’t it?
Once the Liberals are getting cranky when they don’t get NBN, it seems strange when they then say that it is useless.
by don on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Ozpoll
Change the names and you can. Its how they did Underbelly
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Yes I do, I am in a tory stronghold like I think you are?? and I have also heard a couple of comments passed about TA being “strange”
by mari on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Mari
Found it. I’ll check my diary and get back to you.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:34 pm
[Here is a list of ways to identify a sociopath. This list is from "Profile of a Sociopath." Is is a pretty good list of sociopathic indicators.
Glibness/superficial charm
Manipulative and conning
Grandiose sense of self
Pathological lying
Lack of remorse, shame or guilt
Shallow emotions
Incapacity for love
Need for stimulation
Callousness/lack of empathy
Poor behavioral controls/impulsive nature
Early behavior problems/juvenile delinquency
Irresponsibility/unreliability
Promiscuous sexual behavior/infidelity
Lack of realistic life plan/parasitic lifestyle
Criminal or entrepreneurial versatility
Contemptuous of those who seek to understand them
Does not perceive that anything is wrong with them
Authoritarian
Secretive
Paranoid
Only rarely in difficulty with the law, but seeks out situations where their tyrannical behavior will be tolerated, condoned, or admired
Conventional appearance
Goal of enslavement of their victim(s)
Exercises despotic control over every aspect of the victim's life
Has an emotional need to justify their crimes and therefore needs their victim's affirmation (respect, gratitude and love)
Ultimate goal is the creation of a willing victim
Incapable of real human attachment to another
Unable to feel remorse or guilt
Narcissism, grandiosity (self-importance not based on achievements)
May state readily that their goal is to rule the world
(Obviously, in order to be a sociopath a person doesn't have to exhibit anything like all the above. Usually, the lack of a conscience, the manipulation of others, dishonesty and the inability to love and/or have lasting and profound personal relations and cruelty are key symptoms and often much more revealing than having been in trouble with the courts.)
by Boerwar on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Here is a list of ways to identify a sociopath. This list is from “Profile of a Sociopath.” Is is a pretty good list of sociopathic indicators ]
Boerwar @ Number 96
Your list encapsulates in some form 100% of mankind!
by Dr John on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Try and it will 100% attendance of the MCCoast PBs, are there any more lurkers around the area we don’t know about, speak up now!
by mari on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:42 pm
A classic case of confusion between politics and policy. Tony Abbott has none of the latter. Julia Gillard has plenty.
I get sick of the fawning admiration commentators have for the supposed “retail political skills” Abbott is said to possess.
Retail political skills don’t mean shit, even in the short run, much less the long. They are a triumph of medium over message.
Sure, they might win an election, or two, but Larry, don’t kid yourself that retail political skills mean anything beneficial for the national good. They mean “being able to win an election”, or a series of polls, but in the long run they are dark voids, sugar hits on an empty stomach, at best.
You – and I mean YOU personally, Larry – need to decide whether you want spin and style, smartarsery and salaciousness to win over achievement and robust governance.
If you lump for spin and style you’re only perpetuating the triumph of the trivial. You know Abbott will implode, either sooner or later. You know the Coalition’s policy foundations are built on sand and subterfuge.
Gillard’s government may have made mistakes (some of them big, but not as many as a conflict-addicted media would have us believe), but you know in your heart that, in the context of a hung parliament she has done an admirable, indeed remarkable job.
If you think Abbott should win, then please explain what his policies are – I mean practical, achieveable policies, not brain farts – explain how they will be costed, developed (from green to white papers) and put through the parliament. Sorry, but “Tony Abbott is good at winning polls” is not enough. If you think he will, and (from your use of the word “disgrace” in relation to Gillard) should win, you have to explain the moral dimension in which this would happen.
If you can’t do that, I’d suggest you’re just a Reality TV junkie, feeding off the gossip and the tabloid public relations campaign, not considering the national good. Expressing the opinion that Abbott should be the winner, is a lot different from telling us why he should win on policy and on governance, as opposed to crass poll appeal and 3-word sloganeering.
That’s if you’re serious, which I’m not sure you are, to be frank.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 5, 2012 at 6:43 pm