Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
morning all
Yesterday i linked a couple of the adverts by Energywatch. I had seen these adverts previously on foxtel, and they made me very angry at the time. Now that I know what type of f wits are running this company, I should not have been surprised.
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:08 am
Smithe: actually, I want to hear bishops, priests and ministers speak up on issues OTHER THAN same sex marriage.
It wasn’t all that long ago when Christian leaders were very quick to speak out (and very loud) on issues they perceived as examples of man’s inhumanity to man.
For example, ten years ago they would have been all over the media complaining about the disrespectful way people talk about our PM, the tone of national parliamentary debates and would have been loudly condemning the hounding of Craig Thomson. Especially since the worse offenders in relation to the above behaviour all purport to be Christians.
Yet suddenly they are all silent.
I’d like to see just one speak out – especially someone high profile in the Catholic Church (I think we can give up Pell as a lost cause) – and remind Tony Abbott that his behaviour, 99% of the time, is totally unchristian and that he needs to lift his game if he ever hopes to be worthy of the highest position in the land.
It would be very interesting to see how Abbott would deal with it should it ever happen.
by Danny Lewis on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:09 am
BB @ 457
Well this won’t bother Jørn Utzon as he died in 2008, but his Danish family may be rather surprised to learn they are all Dutch!
by bemused on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:09 am
He’s way beyond racism ‘fess.
This is the knuckle-dragging Full-Monty, I’m afraid.
And he reckons he can just spout and no-one will notice or take issue with him.
Still, according to the Herald article you linked, he’s going to do us all a favour and take a nice break overseas. Good. I hope it’s a long one.
If I ever hear a word from that poisonous pratt again, it’ll be too soon.
by smithe on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:11 am
Doyley
I do not know much about Chris Brown from the HSU. He certainly has his sights on Thomson. All I know is that the PM and Mr Thomson seem very relaxed and comfortable. The only ones Appearing unhinged are Abbott, Brandis and Michelle Grattan!!!
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:12 am
Think I heard the Anglican Archbishop of Melbourne speaking out a bit this morning on ABC radio
by mari on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:15 am
Victoria.
Gillard is comfortable in the knowlage that her FWA has delayed any proper action beyond the life of her government. Thomson will be a foot note in history after the next election wipe out.
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:16 am
rummel
You talk crap. This is not the corrupt Howard govt
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:16 am
rummell
cry me a river, chum.
by smithe on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:17 am
rummel
Are you Michelle’s little boy?
by lizzie on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:17 am
rummel
oh, you mean that the FWA followed the rules that Abbott laid down?
You’d think he’d understand how the legislation he put in place worked, but apparently he didn’t pay much attention as a Minister.
by zoomster on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:19 am
I was going to say how peaceful it is on PB at the moment, without truthie, Evan, TP etc and up pops Rummel! The others might be at church asking for forgiveness and salvation?
by mari on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:20 am
If Bolt got done for Racial Vilification, they must be all over Polis. I gather he is from Melbourne so their state laws would apply to him.
by Diogenes on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:21 am
smithe:
Agreed. I hope his overseas holiday is a permanent one!
by confessions on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:23 am
Diogenes
Polis is losing lots of money as a result of his inappropriate conduct. That is going to hurt him more than anything else.
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:24 am
rummy, Abbott said HSU has wasted few hundred thousands of its members money.
Abbott and his Govt wasted $220M of OUR moneys via AWB bribing IRAQI Sadam Hussein Officials. Some of those moneys were probably used to buy weapons and ended killing out troops (that was sent to fight the illegal IRAQ War)
A Royal Commission recommended that criminal charges to be brought.
Yet, not a single official was charged with criminal offences or went to jail. Not a single Minister took responsibility and resigned. The best defence was offerred by Dolly: “I cant recall”.
So dont come here and preach moral high ground to me.
by The Finnigans on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:24 am
Good Morning.
Some good news. The Murdoch Sky Pay Tv hacking incident is getting coverage in the US. In comments sections three letters are coming up a lot. FBI.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:24 am
Victoria,
Hmm the tv contact…… Corruption or pure Labor incompetence? Chose one!
FWA…. Corruption or pure Union incompetence?. Chose one!
I don’t think Labor is corrupted but there is a wealth of information to prove there incompetence.
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:25 am
Saw a grab from Father Bob on News 24
“There are too many saviours on my cross. Get off please.”
In typical Father Bob style.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:26 am
Good. I hope it costs him a mozza.
by smithe on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:27 am
Anyway, I’m off to enjoy all you can eat meat Friday with friends.
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:28 am
Rummel
Compare and contrast your points regarding Labor with National Pork Barrell projects.
I think Labor comes out looking better.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:29 am
rummel
Abbott spending three years waiting for the FWA to do something that he, as Minister, legislated that it couldn’t do.
Thick as a brick?
by zoomster on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:32 am
Guytaur
Labor would be porking the world if they had not spent every red cent under kev. Now to prove to the world they can manage money the have the surplus we had to have. So don’t cry pork because you don’t have a cent to pork with.
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:33 am
My thought was, how can this guy be so stupid.
by fredn on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:34 am
You can’t be a Keynesian on the way down and not one on the way up. My guess is however your grip on economics is so fragile you don’t even know what it means.
by fredn on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:37 am
Would he be angling for a pre-selection somewhere?
by BK on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:39 am
According to the Kathy Jackson fluff piece in the Weekend Australian, it sounds like he is no friend of either Jackson or Thomson.
Maybe he’s in the Chris Brown faction
by Danny Lewis on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:40 am
Rummel
According to Turnbull they are. The NBN rollout is one big pork barrel.
The problem for the Coalition is that they do pork barrel so they think everyone does.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:42 am
Good morning Diog
I think in Bolt’s case he came unstuck because the vilification was directed at comlaining individuals. I don’t know if Polis has done this.
by BK on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:43 am
comlaining = complaining
by BK on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:44 am
Labor just stumbles from one catastophy to another.
The reshuffle was internal and done poorly.
The tent embassy was internal and mismanaged when details came out.
The challenge was internal and stupid.
Queensland was a loss but turned to slime by attacking Newmans wife and no evidence and so damaged the brand.
The Ausnet/ABC tender was another self stuff-up.
Now, all Julia had to say was what everyone knows
“they are independent bodies but I agree that they need to look at their processes as 3+ years are too long”
and
“I believe in the principle of innocent until proven guilty but will be seeking assurances from Thompson”
Instead she says “They are independent and I think FWA is doing a good job”
and
“I have read Thompson’s public statements and there is nothing before me to cause me to change my position”
I would love to see the police suponea the report, it would be the final indignity for the FWA senior management.
by ifonly on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:44 am
@ifonly
Which Coalition member is that press release from?
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:46 am
ifonly @ 531
That’s the police problem in a nutshell – to convince someone to issue a subpoena you need evidence.
The police have hearsay ..
by CTar1 on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:49 am
Some of the conservatives are real dags!
They would actually like us to believe that they have some/any concern for the “poor” unions members of HSU!
I mean Abbott and other conservatives coming this line is a hoot.
These are people whose party was explicitly created to destroy unions and they have never stopped in their attempts since.
I always pose the question to conservatives about the creation of modern unions being a manifestation of the general failure of the capitalist system. For, if the “free market” were so “perfect” unions would never have needed to exist as economic block in the economy.
All the proceeds from the process of production would be distributed fairly between labour and capital.
Conservatives seem to think that “fair” is pittance wages for labour (if they had their way) and all rewards to the owners of capital. How easy would that make life for them?
Oh, I forgot. No or lower taxes and then only for the maintenance of law and order and defence.
It never ceases to amaze me that intelligent people can actually support this right wing/fascista rubbish.
by Tricot on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:49 am
Except when it come to Assange where Gillard had him guilty of a crime she had to get the AFP to try and figure out. She had to change her tune when unauthorised breathing was not considered a crime. Good to see polishing Obama’s boots trumped law school.
by Thomas Paine on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:50 am
But it’s hearsay from George Brandis SC.
Surely THAT carries legal weight!
by BK on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:50 am
I saw a list of the number of companies somewhere maybe The Age?he has been involved in going bust, why are individuals allowed to keep opening up new companies?
by mari on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:51 am
@TP/535
WTF has Assange got to with Thompson?
Stop making excuses….
by zoidlord on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:51 am
Rad Hadley has just been cracking a fat (again) over who’s who in the “Labor Losers’ Club”, based on a story by Steve Lewis in the DT this morning.
The salivating shock jock sounded like a dirty old man hunkered down outside a primary school, watching the moppets walking home, as he read out a long list of names, “death sentence” style…
It was quite a list, based (I think) on the latest Newspoll coming literally true at a general election next year.
Interestingly this was all by way of introducing the NSW State Opposition leader, John Robertson, on the line through all this list reading to have a free bash at Barry O”Farrell and Greg Smith (local A-G here in NSW) over O’Farrell’s refusal to condemn Smith after Smith stuck up for an alleged pedophile priest that Smith had once known, or had as his local parish sky-pilot.
I know, it’s complicated, but when it comes to Mr. Justice Hadley’s pet hates – of whom Greg Smith is one – nothing is too obscure when it comes to public pillorying.
Smith, I can remind youse, once told a private Liberal Party meeting in Pennant Hills that Hadley’s listeners were “a bunch of rednecks”, and that the Prisons Commissioner was too much of an old-style rubber-hose man to be suitable for the job in these modern times. Said commissioner is, unfortunately for Smith, “a mate of Hadley’s”, so Smith has copped it big-time. Greg’s problem was that a few rats recorded his speech and “reported it to me”, as Hadley so self-effacingly put it a few months ago.
God help us if Ray ever finds out that Smith has little flower petals printed on his toilet paper. It’d be on for young and old then.
Thing is, anyone who’s even associated with Smith cops the Hadley treatment too, including the Premier, O’Farrell. If you don’t condemn those who condemn a mate of Hadley’s, then you’re some sort of scum who should be harangued out of office…. or apologize, whichever comes first.
Although I’m not a big fan of Smith myself (he’s my local state member), I found myself feeling almost sorry for him as The Hadley machine, backed up by John Robertson on the line, gleefully weighed into his tortured soul.
Something is up in NSW. O’Farrel is copping now regular pastings in the Telegraph for inaction, and making promises he couldn’t keep (“D’er” I hear youse say). Even today there’s an editorial in the Sydney shit-sheet:
And so it went on, and on. I know I should feel good about O’Farrell being on the receiving end for a change, but being punked by the DT for dithering on the location of a second airport? Ruling out airport sites is just about a rite of passage for NSW pollies. They have “No 2nd Airport” stencilled on the number plates up here. For a second or so, I even felt a twinge of sympathy for old Bazza (don’t worry, it didn’t last long).
You can’t blame Robertson for coming on Hadley’s show. It’s a long time at the best of times between drinks for NSW Labor on 2GB nowadays. “The enemy of my enemy…” and all that. Johnno has to get his licks where he can, even if it Is Good Friday and the tradies are all at home opening up Sports Bet (a prolific 2GB advertiser) up to see who’s got too many points aginst their name in tomorrow’s NRL games.
Something’s definitely afoot, Sydney-side. I don’t know whether Barry has insufficiently placated the Opus Dei-Jesuit push in the Liberal Party, or whether it’s just that he’s refused to tow the Hadley Target Of The Day with appropriate gusto. Hadley is a big hater, sure, but the Riverview-Aloysius Opus Dei axis takes the cake for real bastardry. They probably think Tony Abbott is too soft, although it’s hard to be sure. What’s goes on in the showers stays in the showers when it comes to this secretive cabal of God’s Warriors.
But it’s nice to see my theory developing nicely. Hadley hates everyone, except his mates, of course. He’s out to bring down the whole edifice – Labor, of course, but of late, Liberals too. What he hopes to replace them with is anybody’s guess.
As for the DT, they have inherited their malignant absentee master’s obsession: if you see an “elite” wreck it. Replace it with… what?
Ray Hadley for PM?
I wouldn’t put it past him. Now that he’s got a judge on side, telling us all that Ray’s legit, a force for good in a democratic society, anything’s possible.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:52 am
Honestly, these words coming out of gillard’s mouth is a joke.
by Thomas Paine on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:52 am
Amidst all this self satisfaction that Thomson, and therefore Gillard, is somehow safe…a little reality check on brand ALP:
The final results for the Queensland election are:
LNP 78
ALP 7
The by-election for South Brisbane to come means this could actually end up being 6
The latest polling has the federal ALP heading for around 40ish seats out of 150
The longer the Thomson thing goes, and the more Gillard has to come out and say she supports him, and the longer the whole sordid mess gives oxygen to the meme of ALP wasteful spending the more damage is being done.
The delicious irony of all of this is that it would actually have been much better for the ALP in the long term if there was a quick decisive decision, charges and a by-election, even if the ALP lost, rather than what is happening. However, it may take time for that reality to become evident!
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:56 am
From the photo in the Age if Polis was English you would say he was an entitled Tory bully boy. Not the sort of face I would bother talking to, and I bet he is a dreadful employer who laments the passing of Serf-Choices.
Re Boer-war and comment about the appropriateness of reading the “Lord’s Prayer” at the start of Parliamentary sessions in a multi-cultural society. The Lord’s Prayer is actually a Jewish prayer, as Anglicans say something like “Let us pray as Jesus taught us to pray . . .”
Attendance at morning prayers is not compulsory so people can wander in after the prayer
by billie on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:57 am
BK @ 536
The cops should enlist the ‘great’ George Brandis to go to a judge with them and get a warrant.
LOL!
by CTar1 on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:57 am
Well before that, when you consider population and length of time rigorous research bodies (inc Unis) had been in place.
Our very first Laureates (1915) began defining Oz areas of research excellence: William Bragg & his son Lawrence (Physics in 1915) ‘for their services in the analysis of crystal structure by means of X-rays‘. W L Bragg constructed the x-ray spectrometer, which was used to determine the lattice structure of crystals such as alkaline haloid salts.
It would take 30 years, penicillin and its curative effect in various infectious diseases – and countless lives saved during WW II – for Howard Florey to define our next sphere of great influence: Physiology or Medicine (in 1945). Robert Robinson won in 1947 for chemistry pioneering work on plant alkaloids & their structure – inc morphine; before medicine (esp immunology) again triumphed with Macfarlane Burnet for identifying acquired immunological tolerance; then John Eccles in Medicine 1963 for identifying and researching “natural electricity” – impulses controlling nerves & muscular movement.
The next (though we list him, he worked in Soviet Russia) is Atherton (Far North Qld) born Aleksandr Prokhorov (physics, 1964) for quantum electronics which led to the construction of masers and lasers.
It’s back to medicine with Bernard Katz (1970), with more ground-breaking work on neural transmitters, their storage, release & inactivation; followed by Patrick White‘s very high profile in Oz win for literature in 1973 … far more profile than most of the others I remember … before it’s back to (organic) chemistry with John Cornford 1975, whose prize for stereochemistry of enzyme-catalyzed reactions was effectively drowned out by Fraser & Murdoch’s attacks on Whitlam.
Then the 1st (& only) Laureate I actually knew, Peter Doherty was born in Brisbane, Queensland, where he attended Indooroopilly State High School. He received his bachelor’s degree in veterinary science in 1962 and his master’s degree in veterinary science in 1966 from the University of Queensland. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_C._Doherty) for Medicine: immunology (how T cells recognize their target antigens
A close friend was at Vet School with him. His teacher brother was one of my postgrad students. One of my HS students, a vet postgrad, was involved in some of the research.
Hard on Doherty’s heels came Robin Warren and Barry James Marshall (2005) whose research into Helicobacter pylori bacterium, cause of stomach peptic ulcers and gastritis, derided as in the don’t be daft category, would change millions of lives with a course of antibiotics.
Elizabeth Blackburn, the first Aussie female Laureate, continued the medical theme, showing telomere sequences at the end of chromosomes protect the chromosomes from damage and maintain the integrity of the genome. The discovery has transformed our understanding of how cells age and die, and has opened up research in a new field of molecular biology.
BTW: 1. Most Nobel prizes are shared, usually by member of a team; though some are individual. In the main, the info above comes from Australian Nobel Laureates
2. There is stiff competition among Aussies, esp in medicine, for the next Nobel, inc Fiona Wood (burns treatment) , Prof Ian Fraser, immunology – again! – for research into what caused, and a vaccine against Cervical cancer.
3. Oddly, for a world leader in radio-astronomy (…first stars and quasars form … first discovered with the Parkes radio telescope, no Aussie astronomers have won the Nobel.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 10:59 am
Why stating even the truth about the position of independent bodies in our system of governance is a hanging offence nowadays, I’ll never know.
Independent bodies are set up precisely so that politicians can not just pick up the phone, Abbott-style and give them their riding instructions.
Should Gillard “have a word” with the High Court when things don’t go Abbot’s way? The Auditor-General? The Ombudsman? A quiet whisper in the ear of the AFP? Day-to-day interference with independent bodies is the thin end of the wedge. Independence is what holds our system together.
Just because TP and GW didn’t get their desired outcome is no reason for abandoning the system.
Let justice prevail, but with due process.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:00 am
TP
she didn’t say them.
by zoomster on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:01 am
OzPol Tragic @ 454 Thanks for that stirring start to the Easter weekend. One can imagine Tony Abbott at Mass perhaps similarly inspired?
The Abbott’s Dies Irae
Day of wrath! This Easter morning!
See fulfilled my oft repeated warnings!
Labor’s world in ashes burning!
Lo! The Report, clearly worded,
Wherein all hath been recorded!
Now shall judgement be awarded!
A judge, having all this attained,
The guilty one in court arraigned,
Credit card fraud will be explained!
The lying thief will not be saved!
That sinful woman his crimes not waive,
Depriving me of all I crave!
by PatriciaWA on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:01 am
@ModLIB
Could the Brisbane recount mean Labor could have 8?
Do not crow too much. Remember how well Howard did with all Labor States.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:02 am
Oz
not disputing any of that, simply pointing out the inaccuracies in the quote.
by zoomster on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:03 am