Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Look at the breakdown of eletricity costs here. http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/27/why-generators-are-terrified-of-solar/
At 6%, green energy incentives are the least of our problems with rising power costs. Retailers take 12% (For doing what?) The largest share of costs is new infrastucture (distriubtion and transmission) – much of which is being built solely to handle 100 hours of peak demand per year, mostly from air con on hot days. The cost to the public is huge. Efficiency measures could do these better, and electricity costs would drop enormously. Perverse incentives exist for distributers to build new stuff instead.
by lefty e on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:03 am
the internal polling for the liberal party is not as good as the opinion polls.
Why the supporters of the coalition like 2 gb hadley, jones, 2sm grant goldman and Graeme gilbert
need to continue to use tactics of , labor members going
They need to keep on reminding the gullible every day
They know the coalition isnt as good as the public think it is
by Meguire Bob on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:03 am
Anthony Albanese Presser on News 24 when they fix technical problem.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:04 am
Oh yeah, and those claims that solar PV subsidies are “middle class welfare” turn out to be complete and utter rot. What a surprise!
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/energy-smart/sunny-days-ahead-as-town-leads-states-solar-charge-20120405-1wfkm.html#ixzz1rDUMJq3p
by lefty e on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:05 am
BB
Is one of Hadleys mates a certain ex CEO at Star?
That could explain the shift. Same for DT as James Packer and Lachlan Murdoch are mates. Hard to read conservative tea leaves.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:06 am
And all of this could be irrelevant in 18 months time.
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:07 am
leftye
and those facts also indicate why, even though people are over compensated for the cost rises associated with carbon pricing, they will still seek ways to save money and thus reduce their direct and indirect emissions.
by zoomster on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:09 am
Even by political standards, Brandis has a hyper-inflated opinion of his own ability & importance, and his right to bore us all with it – as if no one in the Gov has an SC, or better. Talk about an arrogant Month on legs!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
For a model of where trashing institutions and established norms of democratic behaviour gets you I suggest you look at PNG. Conservatives have to be careful backing this Abbott hobby horse.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
I get the feeling the anti Gillard/Labor mob are just a little pissed Thomson may get off.
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
Gary
They are. It means they are actually going to have to work to win an election. Not just say no no no and have the Treasury Benches fall into their laps.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:13 am
What Brisbane recount? If you mean Bulimba, I think that has already happened and the ALP has conceded defeat today.
Yes, Howard did well and the ALP State governments did well as the Economy was good and there was a general feeling of competence.
The states largely rode off the back of the secure GST revenue which they had been condemning previously, but you don’t hear much condemnation of it now interestingly enough!
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:16 am
At least one close result is being challenged, and Bligh’s electorate to be contested.
Mind you, compared to the Q Liberal party’s 3 seats (2001) & 5 (2004) Bligh’s result was brilliant!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:17 am
MIA this morning in the Media, George “Lying Rodent” Brandis
by The Finnigans on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:17 am
No doubt what the ALP in NSW and Qld were saying at the time.
The polls got it right and the ALP were wiped out.
Nevertheless, if you choose the full steam ahead path, we will not have to wait long to see what happens I guess!
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:18 am
Mod Lib @ 459
Mod, the article you point to really raises 2 issues but you are focussing on one.
I agree on tightening gun laws, but while ever shooting is a legal and legitimate sport, or farmers use guns to destroy vermin, or security guards and police carry guns, there will be guns in society and the possibility of their misuse. All we can do is minimise it.
The other issue is the problem of the untreated mentally ill.
Mentally ill people, if properly treated, can live fulfilling lives in the community and pose no danger to others. But the problem arises, as illustrated in that article, when a mentally ill person stops taking their medication and it appears there is no mechanism in place to ensure they do take it. Dr E. Fuller Torrey has written extensively on this.
The problem is not confined to guns. There was a horrific case in Victoria a number of years a go when a man suffering from schizophrenia burnt down his house with himself and all his family inside. He was on a Community Treatment Order, but it emerged that no-one took responsibility for monitoring his treatment and medication. True to form, the Coroner couldn’t see a problem.
by bemused on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:18 am
Bull^hit!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:18 am
You are omitting all the National party seats won in 2001 and 2004. Without that I think the comparison is a little weak.
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:19 am
ModLIb
I know it may have escaped your notice. Easy to do when you follow the MSM. The economy is doing well. Growth has been too high yet again for the RBA to cut interest rates.
Your mention of the GST shows why the Coalition is desperate to turn the HSU thing into a tool to get Thomson out of Parliament. They think the Carbon Price is going to have the same reception as the GST. Meaning their fear campaign strategy has failed.
It was the last gasp hope of the climate deniers.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
They had to research to work this out?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-06/sleeping-with-pets-better-for-rest-study-finds/3936712
by This little black duck on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
One tires, but has to keep trying to point out to the conservative hacks who come here gloating about what has recently happened in Queensland is a portent of what might happen 18 months from now to Federal Labor.
The predictive value of polls this far out is poor.
Why not point, instead, if you must, to the very tenuous hold the state Liberals have in Victoria and Barnett is not so safe in WA either. There was no big win for the Libs in Victoria and WA is not rock solid – though I am inclined to favour Barnett as it is Red Neck territory.
If we must let’s to back to 2001 where Howard, Federally, was in much the same shape as Labor is now.
The jackals in the msm media, and here I refer to the likes of Kelly, Grattan and Bolt, actually wrote Howard off. Just as the conservative hackers here are attempting to do to Labor.
Andrew Bolt at the time: “Howard is………..walking dead”
Kelly: “The loss in Ryan has corroded the foundations of the Liberal party………….”
Gary Morgan: “The government has zero chance……………..”
And, of course, the Liberals lost Ryan which virtually endorsed the howl from the jackals at the time – and this was a blue ribbon Liberal seat.
See, all fall down! Why? ‘Cos the polls told me so.
Yet shortly after this, Howard won comfortably.
I would suggest that the longer time goes on, the better things will look for Labor.
It is for this reason one conservative hacker here has had his “blood boiling” for weeks and why Abbott in particular, is actually looking and sounding mad/crazy.
Sometime soon I worry for him, the Libs and the country actually, that he will crack.
He has been on the verge of punching a journo out already, and he is just so close now.
You only have to look at his eyes in mid rant. The man is on the verge of a breakdown.
by Tricot on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
When you think about it, what has the coalition got to offer in fear for 2013, everything would have nearly died down,
Why Abbott is giving this his last big go for an early election within 4 months, looks like he is going to fail and he is finish, the hope the liberal party has in 2013 is a honeymoon period for the new leader
by Meguire Bob on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:24 am
bemused:
I completely agree. Mental health has been a neglected area of healthcare delivery for a long time, and is only just starting to get its place in the public debate.
I focussed on the Section 6B issue as it is topical, under consideration, and I think given the fact that the Liberals don’t need the Shooters Party votes in the upper house, it is eminently possible that this provision could be repealed.
(We are talking about a 2008 change in NSW law that enables anyone to get access to guns in pistol clubs- all they have to do is answer “no” to a questionnaire about mental illness. There was a story in todays SMH about a paranoid schizophrenic that said “no”, joined, took the gun home and shot her father in a delusional rage).
I wrote to the Premier, AG, and Police Minister and urge any NSW bloggers to do the same: Section 6B should be repealed. Background checks must be mandatory again.
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:24 am
Meguire Bob,
I’d go further. I’d say the media know the Coalition isn’t any damn good at all. So they all fall in behind the Coalition, to prop it up and make it “competitive”.
The Coalition exists inside the nation’s biggest sheltered workshop.
by Cuppa on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:24 am
TlBD
Its Queensland
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:24 am
lefty e @ 550
Ummm calculating and presenting your bill and collecting the payment. And…..employing all those lovely people who continually knock on my door trying to convince me to switch from one bill printer to another.
by bemused on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:26 am
The difference is the Liberal party stopped and listened. Wasn’t this the time of the “Mean and tricky” memo from Shane Stone?
The point I am making is not that things can’t change, its that they are unikely to change until the ALP changes.
The ALP seems very unlikely to change, given there is precious little insight here that there is even a problem. Don’t you guys go out and talk to your fellow Australians at all? Do you really have no inkling about the actual feeling towards Gillard and the ALP at present?
Speaking of which, I am off to lunch to chat to a few Australians. Happy to report back if there is some sudden groundswell of support for Gillard and the ALP that I have been missing!
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
@Mod Lib/576
Fed Labor are rolling out Infrastructure and Reforms, it’s what they are suppose to do.
Not to sit in front of the Camera 24/7 at Press Conferences!
by zoidlord on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:31 am
Zoidlord
The Howard government was the biggest-taxing government of all time. But they built practically nothing with all that money (a few flagpoles was about it), and still managed to leave the Budget in structural deficit.
by Cuppa on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:36 am
Mod Lib @ 572
Add to that, appropriate procedures for checking guns are returned before the person who borrowed a gun leaves the premises. Shouldn’t be too hard. It is not only the mentally ill who might steal a gun for misuse.
by bemused on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:38 am
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=736904&vId=
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:39 am
Modlib
JWH changed direction when he found him self moving against public opinion aka snowy hydro. The one time he really stuck to his guns against the people he was kicked out of office. Labor used JWH inability to change on work choices to great advantage and yet now make the same mistakes. It great to watch Labor sticking to there guns on a shit policy like JWH and will be turfed out of office as well.
It is a great time to support the libs as every day brings further joy
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:40 am
rummel
What do you have to look forward to with the Libs. Higher rates of taxes and GST
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:41 am
ML @ 561
Absolute rubbish at least in the case of NSW. For a number of the early years the Commonwealth had to top-up GST payments because they were below the guaranteed minimum(essentially what they would have got under the previous General Revenue Assistance arrangements.
Despite the nonsense sprouted at the time about the States rolling in GST money they did not do particularly well compared to the old arrangements. In fact it was one of the few times I agreed with John Stone when he warned the States not to sign up because, by giving up some State taxes, they would become more dependant on the Commonwealth.
The big winner from the GST was the Commonwealth as it didn’t have to find large slabs of General Revenue assistance to the States. The States got marginal (and it would seem a declining) benefit.
by CO on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:41 am
Btw today’s hard copy of the Herald Sun is focussing on the Good Friday appeal, the afl ad the rants by Ben Polis. Cant find anything on the HSU or Thomson.
by victoria on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:45 am
It amuses me when animal behaviourists tell us that we shouldn’t allow dogs to sleep on our beds with us, as it sends a message to the pet that they are in charge.
I guess the choice is in between me, the human, being in charge and having a loved and treasured pet who looks upon me as just another dog.
I prefer the latter, as long as they don’t fart in my face.
Our young (12 years) dog can get up on the bed by himself. He’s a real jumper, an athelete (even though he’s a pretty solid Shi-Tzu/Silky). He’s got legs like legs of lamb.
On the other hand, Bob (he of the 15 teeth extracted before Xmas) is Ol’ Chicken Wings in the legs dept. For a few years now he’s had trouble jumping. I think it’s a combination of poor eyesight and a gradual aging of his pins. Bob has a bit of trouble judging even jumping up from the roadway to the kerb. He trips over himself sometimes, and if he misjudges a jump down from ever a couple of feet he can splat awfully, with his undercarriage giving out, finding his chin meeting the ground with a whack. I have to be careful with him, as his jaw’s a bit weak from all the recent dental surgery.
But get them together barking at the neighbour’s red dog (as per the movie, the spitting image in fact), and the adrenalin kicks in. They become greyhounds, trapeze artists and skateboarders all in one. No height is too terrifying. No obstacle to large for them to sidestep around (this includes me when I’m trying to break up the fence run). I can hardly bring myself to watch, it’s so violent, ebullient and death defying all at once.
It’s what makes them tick: being working dogs. And what makes me tick: being part of their pack.
Which is why I not only tolerate, but celebrate letting sleeping dogs lie…
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:46 am
Howard introduced a GST regardless of whether the people wanted it or not. More people voted against him in ’99 than voted for him. Fact. So let’s not go too far down this road of Howard changing to suit his electoral needs. Of course the big stuff up was Workchoices.
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:48 am
Rummel
I applauded Prime Minister Howard for sticking to his guns on gun control. No pun intended. He did what was right not what was popular. He did the same on Iraq. I personally thought that was wrong. These did not lose him an election.
What lost him the election was that he made too many stands on grounds the Australian people thought was wrong.
Labor and Prime Minister Gillard have a long way to go before they get to that point.
by guytaur on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:48 am
The Coalition will be saying ‘Have you got your NBN yet?’
‘F#$k’en Labor – incompetent. Can’t even dig a ditch. Your real estate value is suffering due to Labor.’
by CTar1 on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:48 am
A Statistics tell the story of the biggest-taxing government in Australia’s history: the Howard government. The Age, 14 October 2007:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howards-run-the-good-the-bad-the-taxing/2007/10/13/1191696241362.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
by Cuppa on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:49 am
Yes, opposition is a hoot isn’t it?
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:50 am
Beware:soliciting black duck @569
by joe2 on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:52 am
Jen
At least higher gst will get spent on health, education and roads. The carbon tax gets spent on a clear gas where it will not make one bit of difference to Australia or the weather. The only outcome for the carbon tax is a warm fuzzy feeling for team lime and this warm fuzzy feeling of action being taken will cost billions.
by rummel on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:54 am
Actually …..No.
I will allow you the opportunity to reconsider though, and change that bit, if you want.
I assume there will be no results on Monday (Essential or Newspoll)- is that right?
Have a great Easter everyone, Ciao.
by Mod Lib on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:54 am
[Justice Peter McClellan I think. Diamond Jim deceased about a decade …]\
Oops. Teach me never to type without checking search engines!
Doesn’t change the post’s intent, though.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:56 am
Actually yes.
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:57 am
Howard didn’t win the 1998 election on the back of the GST. In fact he nearly lost it.
It was the 1996 election that he won by saying there would “never ever” be another GST. “Never ever” was taken to mean: “not in this term, not in any future term”. It would have been political suicide for him to have said he’d put it to the people at the next election (whenever that occurred). He wouldn’t have won the first one if he had.
That “lie” in 1996 (more of a lie than Gillard’s, as he didn’t have a hung parliament hanging around his neck) allowed the punters to vote him in secure in the belief that a GST would never ever happen on his watch. Once in the door marked “1996″ Howard used the leverage to go on to win another three elections.
It’s a mistake to say that Howard honestly took the GST to the people in 1998, and to leave the analysis at that.
He dishonestly took “no GST” to the 1996 election. If he hadn’t, he wouldn’t have been around to make any promises, core or non-core, in 1998.
In short, Howard was narrowly forgiven for breaking his promise of the 1996 campaign, a promise that had to be broken or he would now be part of (ancient) political history, even more so than he is today.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 6, 2012 at 11:57 am
The only mistake I made was the year. It was 1998.
by Gary on Apr 6, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Oh ffs stop giving orders, as if you had a constitutional right to do so. Esp since there are more than 2 explanations, inc Abbott’s & Liberals’ desperate obsession with their own right to power!!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 6, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Mod Lib @ 459
Thanks for posting that link. What a sad story.
The dignity of the family in those circumstances is just amazing.
by MTBW on Apr 6, 2012 at 12:02 pm