Crikey



Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. The thing is Gillard was entirely correct on the pension stuff, she argued it in Cabinet and it should have been kept confidential until the archives released it.

    I admit I receive the pension and benefit from the increases, but are they sustainable I think maybe not. The pension has to catch up and even pass the minimum wage eventually, good for me if I live long enough, probably not good for the taxpayers who pay for it.

    by ruawake on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:56 pm

  2. 1139:CTar1
    The commercial one hour shows are all 55 minutes or less and the half hour shows 25 or less.

    They need ‘fillers’.

    You mean like this?

    by solwolf on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:56 pm

  3. No 1: the Rudd was a naty blue meany who was mean to me and overworked staff stuff – you know the months of white anting that went on while he was PM. Candidates anyone. criticism anyone? Score 1 Rudd enemies

    You are wasting your time trying to reason with a group who are honour bound to hate and slag Rudd so long as their heroine and girl that stabbed him in the back has been doing so poorly.

    In fact the degree of hatred of Rudd is all and everything to do with Gillard’s abysmal performance as leader and in the polls. If Rudd’s polling post the knifing were terrible people here would be saying how good he was and how did this or that well.

    These people would rather have Labor obliterated at an election than have Rudd be successful. If Rudd took over as leader they would all be hoping Labor gets thrashed, so their girl seems better. These Gillard extremists are ALL about Gillard and nothing about Labor as they make out.

    And of course there was white-anting against Rudd a year before the knifing by the forces on Gillard’s side and it was long the intention to replace Rudd, long before they could have possibly had problems with Rudd being too imposible for their sensitive personalities.

    And of course was it Gillard who having pressured Rudd to drop the ETS then immediately leaked it to the media….hmmmm I think so.

    Will the public miss Julia Howard? They certainly missed and miss Kevin Rudd, much to the horror of all here . LOL

    by Thomas Paine on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:57 pm

  4. Fuack me. An 8.9 magnitude just reported off Indonesia.About as big as the Fukushima one

    by poroti on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:57 pm

  5. mytbw – lovely memories for you and your family.

    by BH on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:57 pm

  6. lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
    I wouldn’t trust Smiling Joe as far as I could throw him – and I’m only abt 163cm.

    lizzie, did you know JG is 5’5″ – about 163cm too.

    Obama – 6’1″
    Abbott – 5’11″

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:58 pm

  7. The one percent. Planning for a second President Obama term.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2127759/Apocalypse-Doomsday-shelter-built-Kansas-prairie.html

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:58 pm

  8. Rummell

    We have friends who just cruised to NZ the y say the crossing , was rough even on a liner,

    So do you think before you speak,, seems u may the liberal disese.
    Think things through to what may happen , take a walk in their shoes

    Would you take your own children ina boat across the tasman se

    by my say on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:58 pm

  9. BK
    Nessun Dorma just makes the hair bristle as does O mio babbino caro.
    Just beautiful!

    by Dee on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:59 pm

  10. Rudd leaked.
    Doesn’t matter how you attempt to justify it.
    He leaked. Pure and simple.

    His behaviour in both whiteanting his leader and party, and the appalling way he treated his colleagues were reflected in the leadership vote numbers.

    People can spin it any way they want, but the numbers don’t lie.

    by confessions on Apr 11, 2012 at 6:59 pm

  11. Any tsunami warning. ABC not got one on their breaking ticker.

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:01 pm

  12. lyne lady – loved your arrested development comment and agree.

    It’s our JR Richards here as well and they are pretty lousy when it comes to helping out small community organisations here with donations or sponsorships.

    BK – that was a beautiful voice, thanks. Did he win?

    by BH on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:01 pm

  13. There is one way to tell how well Gillard is doing, and that is to measure the level of spite and malice re Rudd here….eg

    Your Nos.1-5 Meaningless shite.
    He leaked. Get over it.

    Gillard is a failed leader. Get over it.

    by Thomas Paine on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:01 pm

  14. A BIG earthquake being reported off Indonesia

    by CTar1 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:01 pm

  15. :mrgreen: 5’11″

    If he standing up straight :lol:

    by Centre on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:02 pm

  16. ah they do now. Seems I am quicker than them lol

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:02 pm

  17. 500 ks SW of Banda Acheh

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:03 pm

  18. @TP/1162

    If she is a failed leader, what does make Kev? A Piss Poor Losser?

    Come on, TP, Stop being an ass, If you can’t teamwork then you no good in politics or working environment at all.

    by zoidlord on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:03 pm

  19. BK – that was a beautiful voice, thanks. Did he win?

    BH
    Since posting it I found that he did win.

    by BK on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:04 pm

  20. TP

    Gillard is a failed leader. Get over it.

    Just as a myriad before him, Rudd was replaced.

    And Gillard hasn’t lost yet. Get over it.

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:04 pm

  21. kezza

    did you know JG is 5’5″ – about 163cm too.

    Obama – 6’1″
    Abbott – 5’11″

    Well that is a revelation!
    Honestly thought Rabbott was shorter than the PM, he certainly looks it to me.

    by Dee on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:04 pm

  22. Now it is NW of Indonesia. Going to consult Atlas to check if my memory of Banda Acheh being in Indonesia is wrong.

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:05 pm

  23. I wish people would lay off attacking horse racing here fine if you want to stop jumps racing I agree but it seems like all pleasurable vices are under attack.
    I have been a race club member all my adult life and never bet much but always had a great time and it keeps lots of people employed. The whipping has been toned right down and personally I don’t care if the whip was made out of foam material.
    Pokies well there bad now.
    Meat that’s bad now.
    Believe in God ( I am more agnostic but kinda spiritual) that’s bad now.
    Cigars I have smoked for years but you cannot do that anywhere now.
    Cigarettes it’s only a matter of time that will be restricted to private homes.
    Bloody Hell what will we have left to enjoy maybe just a bit of blogging but by the Tim Conroy brings in his Internet filter and some new media body comes in we will be lucky if even Crikey is still allowed given it’s page hits.
    At least red wine is not on anyones hit list yet
    Matter of fact I’ll have one now to cheer myself up.

    by Mike Patton on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:05 pm

  24. solwolf -Droll!

    by CTar1 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:06 pm

  25. Eeek 8.9 is a whopper, near where the last one caused the tsunami that hit sri lanka.

    Fingers toes and assorted dangly bits crossed.

    by ruawake on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:06 pm

  26. Yes i heard that. Hockey did ot go to that wedding ithink itwas widley said

    Anither tsumani warming for indonesia. Just on news

    by my say on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:06 pm

  27. TP must have a Rudd alert on his computer.

    by Dee on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:06 pm

  28. The earthquake was felt in India and Thailand

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:07 pm

  29. kezza

    Is that in high heels? She always seems taller.
    But then, so did I when I wore them.

    by lizzie on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:08 pm

  30. PM Gillard is doing well at the moment:

    - Budget surplus on track.
    - Interest rates heading lower.
    - Compensation for carbon tax soon to be delivered.
    - Overwhelming support in a united party.

    As long as Julia remains strong, positive and focused on the agenda, the :mrgreen: will be sent packing yet!

    by Centre on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:08 pm

  31. Because Rudd’s a leaker and your a wanker!

    I think it is quite clear why the public is turned off Labor. Wankers who make comments like this because somebody said something that does not accord 100% with their adoration of Gillard.

    This is becoming more and more like a like an intolerant cult.

    by Thomas Paine on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:08 pm

  32. Mike 1172 – feel better now??? :)

    by womble on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:09 pm

  33. Centre

    +1

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:09 pm

  34. Great win then, BK. I know it’s completely irrelevant here but did you ever see whether Charlotte and Jonathan won in the UK? I’m a little useless at finding the youtube links as yet.

    Does anyone remember hearing Malcolm Turnbull saying recently that he still thinks ‘marriage’ is between a man and a woman even tho he thinks civil unions are OK? I can’t find it altho I am sure I heard him say that in a presser around the time the House resumed in February.

    by BH on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:10 pm

  35. BH
    Sorry, no idea.

    by BK on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:11 pm

  36. watching the #aceh twitter feed – frightening

    by sprocket_ on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:12 pm

  37. Dee

    Honestly thought Rabbott was shorter than the PM, he certainly looks it to me.

    Saw the piccy of Tones with Jennifer Hawkins. She was bending down. But was wearing 6″ leg/foot wreckers (even though she’s over the hill).

    And both his daughters were taller too. And, it stuck me that maybe he suffered from small-man syndrome.

    So, went looking, as you do, on google.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Angela Merkel is 5’5″ and so is Nikolas Sarkovy!!!

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:12 pm

  38. There is one way to tell how well Gillard is doing, and that is to measure the level of spite and malice re Rudd here

    No TP it’s just that I would not want Rudd in the trench beside me and when I think of it – you!

    by Dr John on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:13 pm

  39. lizzie – when you see JG in the flesh alongside some of the blokes she seems tiny in size but huge in kudos. She is very impressive and altho I am no longer in a marginal I’d love her to come to our electorate and speak altho she did pop into the bottom 1/2 of it on the eve of the 2010 election.

    by BH on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:14 pm

  40. @TP/1180

    There is no need to act like you do, show some maturity or be quiet.

    by zoidlord on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:14 pm

  41. stanny

    My theory is that your theory has no validity whatsoever but merely fits in with your own theories of moral, ethical and intellectual superiority none of which have any empirical basis of validation.

    I just noticed your comment. I’ll provide the empirical basis for my statement.

    More intelligent people are statistically significantly more likely to exhibit social values and religious and political preferences that are novel to the human species in evolutionary history. Specifically, liberalism and atheism, and for men (but not women), preference for sexual exclusivity correlate with higher intelligence, a new study finds.

    This is one of a number of studies which have similar findings.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100224132655.htm

    by Diogenes on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:14 pm

  42. Winston Churchill – 5’6″
    Vladimir Putin – 5’7″

    As I said, small-man syndrome :lol:

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:15 pm

  43. BH

    Just shows how the caricatures and the choice of pics by the media have distorted our picture of her. Shame.

    by lizzie on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:17 pm

  44. Gillard might seems taller because she does often wear very high heels; I remember watching footage of her during the election campaign and wondering how she manages to wear them when she is on her feet from the wee small hours until … well, the next wee small hours.

    Politics is gruelling enough without torturing your body, I would have thought.

    But maybe I’m jealous because my arthritic old toes don’t allow me to wear shoes like that :(

    by Danny Lewis on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:17 pm

  45. *seem

    I’m getting arthritic fingers as well. At least, that’s my editFAIL! excuse and I’m sticking to it ;-)

    by Danny Lewis on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:19 pm

  46. DL

    I don’t call pumps high heels.
    A leetle heel lift maybe

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:19 pm

  47. Adolf Hitler
    5’8″

    by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:20 pm

  48. @Danny Lewis.

    A politicians union should tell her she is breaking occupational safety laws :)

    by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:20 pm

  49. Winston Churchill – 5’6″
    Vladimir Putin – 5’7″

    As I said, small-man syn

    Thomas P – just tall enough to reach the rim of the bucket to throw the kittens in.

    by Dr John on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:21 pm

  50. Womble at 1181
    Yes as a matter of fact as is usually the case and about to cook a steak!
    Hope you have a good night too
    Also I am happy to report I am generally ignoring politics and the news since Easter started and that has been good too for the soul.

    by Mike Patton on Apr 11, 2012 at 7:22 pm

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