Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
An excellent piece from Thom Hartmann on the stupidities in the US regarding the “Stand Your Ground” laws.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101721550
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 6:54 am
May be a geolgist can explain why no drams from earthquake this time’ woke up ecpecting
the wost,, is it o do with the way the plates move,
by my say on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:01 am
Morning
This is a picture you wont see often. I should add Labor pollies dress better too!
http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2012/04/12/1226324/356618-lionel-bowen-funeral.jpg
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:03 am
3131
Why is tha t atheists,, get so het up trying to prove they ar e right, none of us will know till we Die, but i am glad i beleive there is more to living and dying with only a hole in the ground. It sure makes you feel happier,. Mostly christians dont bother trying to prove either way.
by my say on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:07 am
Sorry my say, but athiests have nothing to prove. Theists do.
And that’s the problem.
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:09 am
The Young Turks on the ridiculous laws being passed in the US on women’s reproductive health.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101721536
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:10 am
Worthwhile analysis in The Political Sword on the coalition.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/04/10/Fear-uncertainty-and-doubt-grip-the-Coalition.aspx
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:13 am
That Farelly article is a bit of a`wow!! For a journo to take this line in wow! Either she is about to get shafted and is looking to out with a bang, or their is something afoot
by daretotread on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:13 am
Bk sorty
I disagree, you dont i dont know till’we die , u cannot have it both ways,
U seem scared i am not,
Why worry about it bk, does it matter atiers get hysterical , christiand judt except, wait and see
Honestly its a happier thought process, sorryy no one knows,as i said, not u not i.
Just be happy, my be thre is life afer death gee we live like to think we have lived our lives as good people. Just a hole in the ground is not thst appealing
Each to his own, of corse chridtians mostly beleive in evolution, ecr, its just the end bit i prefer,
.
by my say on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:17 am
Whats got me is the banks screaming for the RBA to drop rates while they bloody raise them. Where is swan?
by rummel on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:19 am
DTT
What do you mean something is afoot?
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:21 am
Hi vic
Thanks for the link to the Political Sword. What a great contribution!
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:22 am
BK
My pleasure. I thought it was a great analysis, summing up our own assessment of the coalition team.
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:24 am
Victoria
I have no idea what is afoot but when an MSN journo writes an article like that one something is up. I really have no idea what it might be.
Political sword most amusing. The Libs certainly have some policy dilemmas
by daretotread on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:27 am
They’re saying that Fox News is “protecting” Zimmerman.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:28 am
victoria
Any Liberal supporter reading this may have a conniption but the oft said line that they don’t have ‘factions’ seems to be disproved by the fact that Abbott has 22 in his shadow cabinet – a sure sign of a lack of authority.
by CTar1 on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:28 am
A VOCAL critic of the federal government’s mining tax, billionaire Clive Palmer, did not have to pay tax in his main private company last year, according to accounts lodged with the corporate regulator.
The company accounts show Mineralogy and its subsidiaries reported losses for the past three financial years. The profit-and-loss statement shows no tax was payable in 2010-11.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/magnates-company-paid-no-tax-20120411-1wsl2.html#ixzz1rlmz4aCL
by Dr John on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:29 am
BB
It was also reported that legal opinion suggests that the conversation/interview by Sean Hannity with Zimmerman can be forced into evidence.
FoxNews is disgraceful. Here is a crew that keeps an eye on them.
http://www.newshounds.us/
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:31 am
Australia 184-6 chasing 192 for victory in the First Test against WI. As usual Hussey (30 from 22) is doing the job when needed. He just put a ball onto the grandstand roof.
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:33 am
Morning all.
my say:
I too expected the worst with Indonesia, but it looks unlikely there will be a tsunami. Thank heavens for that!
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:34 am
My Say, aint no geologist, we do swim near them plates for observation and keep an eye on them often.
This earthquake is a “slider” like the two plates slide across each horizontally.
Vs “Popup” where one plate moves up vertically, therefore large volume of water is displaced.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:38 am
The Sydney papers running ‘New Airport NOW’ articles again this morning – the BCA and ACCI are meeting with COAG today.
Surely a coincidence.
by CTar1 on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:39 am
Could not get the link but turn left 2013 tells us the salvstion army are not happy
With news reports
by my say on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:40 am
BK, i have been keeping an eye on Fakenews. Hannity is absolutely a shocker but surprisingly O’Reiley is “reasonably (for his standard)” fair allowing different views. Whereas Hannity simply dont want to know.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:43 am
Oh grow up. I targetted nobody in particular, but made a general observation. No different to the countless general observations you blurt out almost every time you are here about the atmospherics of this blog. Perhaps you should take your own advice.
Hilarious from a commenter who frequently complains about the content of comments here, and when others respond or don’t respond to your views.
That has made my morning!!
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:44 am
DTT
Unfortunately the SMH journo forgot to mention Assange not wanting matters disclosed about himself. It appears that he is all for exposing secrets that do not include his own
Wangker comes to mind
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:44 am
Fess, dont know who wrote that but please allow me a guess, HORSEY?
If so, she really needs to get over her martyrdom mentality.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:46 am
Thanks finns see eve n me bear of lttle brain worked that out, thank you.
Thought that was the case,
Still would not want to be a ship sailing through there as it happened though.
by my say on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:46 am
The Finnigans
Gold star for you!!
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:47 am
victoria:
The political sword commentary is interesting. Do you know what particular insights the author has into the Liberal party? Comments about many MPs being distressed by the abuse Abbott has heaped upon the PM don’t appear to be supported by any evidence – supposed moderates like Brandis and Pyne and often chief offenders!
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:47 am
Finns:
You are correct, and I agree with you!
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:48 am
Australia by 3 wickets.
by This little black duck on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:50 am
BK,
I love the Rowe cartoon this morning. It always pays to take time to look at the small details in his imagery. His latest effort is a cracker.
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:51 am
Fran Kelly being a harridan with the head of the HSU. Thomson BOO!
by This little black duck on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:54 am
mysay
The Salvation Army has put out a media release:
http://www.salvationarmy.org.au/about-us_65047/media-centre/current-media-releases/response-to-carbon-tax-reform.html?s=1581679509
One wonders why it isn’t being more widely reported! (Sarcasm alert).
by zoomster on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:54 am
Kidette
Rowe’s imagery is frequently quite surreal. He is very clever.
by BK on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:54 am
He specialises in having people in who will say outrageous things while he chips in with things like ‘that doesn’t sound right’ and then leaves them to say it again.
by CTar1 on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:55 am
Oh dear.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/bolt-link-to-racist-reviews-of-book-20120411-1wsa1.html
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 7:57 am
Why Fuelwatch is useful:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/13398875/ninth-fuel-rise-sees-2008-prices-return/
Perhaps the government should try again for a national Fuelwatch?
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:02 am
confessions,
Bolt is just one of those stand up Aussie guys that makes you proud to be Australian – NOT.
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:02 am
Few more facts about Indonesia’s archipelago:
1. Very very fertile because it is full of volcanic fertiliser
2. It has more volcanoes than anybody else, some 200 of them
3. The largest volcanic explosion known to science was the Toba explosion near Aceh some 70,000 years ago. The beautiful Lake Toba was born. This is not your normal mountain like volcano, it was subterranean volcano. Likewise with Lake Taupo in NZ. The next big one s the Yellowstone Volcano. It is due anytime. If it goes off, boom boom sayonara USA.
4. The next two biggest normal mountain shape volcanic explosions were Krakarau (1883) and Mt. Tambora (1815) on the island of Sumbawa (west of Timor). Anak Krakatau (Son of Krakatau) is growing up quickly but Mt. Tambora is due anytime
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora
Dont say i never warn you. And dont worry about how the Universe was created but how our earth will end. Have a good day.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:04 am
On fuel yesterday, I went to visit the library and thought I’d top up. Prices were 1.46 to 1.48 and thought I’d wait until the school holidays were over. Got to Runaway bay and paid 1.34.9 per litre. Needless to say I filled up the tank!
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:07 am
SK:
Yes indeed. One also has to question his judgement – linking to that kind of stuff after the court ruling last year.
by confessions on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:07 am
my say, actually sailing on the open ocean across the tsunami wave is OK. Did you see that Japanese Coastguard vessel cut across the tsunami wave front. It was just like a surfer cut across the wave to catch the next wave.
The tsunami wave gets bigger, higher and higher as it gets near land as the sea gets shallower and shallower.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:09 am
Confessions,
Bolt has proven that he has no judgement. He believes it is his right to spill bile and pass judgement on others. What makes me really sad that Bolt is just one high profile judgemental bully in a sea of them.
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
What News Ltd? Surely not? Who’d have thought?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
Kiddo, some Library. Our local Library dont sell petrol.
by The Finnigans on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
Kudelka on a Howes driving RBA rates: http://www.kudelka.com.au/2012/04/hes-here-to-help/
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:12 am
Finns,
LOL! The library is across the road from the servo.
by Space Kidette on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:13 am
confessions
Not sure if the writer has any inside knowledge into the distress some feel about Abbott’s conduct. Or if in fact, the writer is making an observation.
by victoria on Apr 12, 2012 at 8:14 am