Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2127453/M16-1m-bribe-silence-torture-victim-Spies-gave-dissident-Gaddafi-thugs.html
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:26 am
The Daily Mail in the UK seems to be moving slightly (note slightly) to the left.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:28 am
I would like to see this occupational and health safety issue to inlude catwalk and photo shoots.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:30 am
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2127464/High-heels-cut-size-new-EU-proposals-forcing-hairdressers-wear-non-slip-flat-shoes.html
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:31 am
Dawkins is a cold smartie and Pell a warm dill. Reason v Faith. Neither seemed at home last night.
by Toorak Toff on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:31 am
TT
I agree. I felt I knew more than both of them, which makes me a stupid smartie
by lizzie on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:33 am
Leroy
The Tandberg cartoon on that article says it all.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:34 am
Victoria & BB – David Penberthy should know better, as should Jacqueline Maley at Fairfax. The Samantha Brick trolling effort by The Daily Mail in the UK unleashed a lot of nastiness, dealt with well in these articles. If you’ve come in late & feel the need to stick the boot into Brick, don’t. That may have been the intention in running it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/04/samantha-brick-thrown-to-wolves
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/emma-gray/samantha-brick-daily-mail_b_1404371.html
http://jezebel.com/5898848/yes-samantha-brick-is-obnoxious-but-the-daily-mail-is-trolling-us-all
The Jezebel article I think was the first article to respond on the 3rd. The Guardian one on the 4th is the best & most thoughtful (and angry). The Aussie journo articles were written after these, but completely miss what the UK people picked up on. I noticed the same from a few bods on twitter. Bloggers & feminist posters picked up on what was going on, the journos were clueless, not having read the responses to the backlash articles.
by Leroy on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:43 am
In other breaking news:
FoxTel Gets Nod To Swallow Austar
This isn’t as bad as it sounds. Austar is just a vehicle for distributing FoxTel anyway.
———————————————————————————————————————
Carbon Tax Is Uncosntitutional Says Tax Expert
But wait the “expert” is Brian Pape who
and
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:45 am
Jessica Wright penning absolute shit… again.
Why does this woman bother?
“Made headlines”? Yes.
Won the case? No.
Pape is a favourite of Chris Smith on 2GB. He phones in often. Smith quotes him as if anything he says is Holy Writ.
To quote Pape is like quoting Ian Plimer. He’s a crackpot. His crackpottedness has been done to death. He’s a pest.
One of the answers to the “state property” argument revolves around the contention that, whether carbon emissions are or were the property of the state, once the states let it go up the spout, they’ve dumped it, given it away. And for that they will be charged.
Of of course, Wright goes on with the usual “poll” stuff. She can’t resist. She’s wetting her pants to tell us…
[NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland are all under conservative rule and a new opinion poll has today revealed that federal Labor now trails the Coalition in every state and territory on both primary votes and on a two-party preferred basis.
No, Jessica. It is not a “new opinion poll”.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/carbon-tax-is-unconstitutional-says-tax-expert-20120410-1wlqh.html#ixzz1rasTlYNG
I’m surprised she didn’t weave into this piece some little homily about what her brat gets up to in his spare time, actually. Wright shows restraint, for a change.
No moppets today.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:47 am
Cuppa – how unattractive they all look!!! esp ta
by Lyne Lady on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:48 am
Dan
That “expert” will hve to prove in law how a tradeable commodity is a tax. Should make entertining listening.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:49 am
by Pegasus on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:51 am
Tony Abbott live News 24
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:51 am
So loking at Newspoll quarterly, we see a slow edging up of govt, despite hysterical opposition.
by jenauthor on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:52 am
This is a good article re any High Court challenge
http://www.kingstribune.com/current-issue/1483-bush-lawyers-
goes into a bit of detail, including the arguement offered today
by Leroy on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:54 am
Abbott comparing PM to three monkeys.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:54 am
The precious ones are those that can’t or won’t stand up for their views and leave IMHO.
by Gary on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:54 am
Abbott as absolutely nothing to bring to the table.
Prices are going to go up, up, up, and productivity will go down, down, down.
That’s literally all he’s got.
by gloryconsequence on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:56 am
Finally media asking questions of Abbott regarding respecting due process.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:57 am
Both good & bad to see the nanny debate widening. Perhaps there are potential positives but oversight would be a massive problem as has been pointed out.
However all this is negated by the fact that a “look at me & how nice I am” proposal on Abbott’s part that he has no intention of keeping, at least not in the general feelgood way he announced it, will be given legs & another round of “the Federal Opposition says..”
by BSA Bob on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:58 am
guytaur
Eaxctly, and as BB points out underneath my post, once it’s up in the atmosphere, the state(s) no longer own the “carbon”. If they do manage to claim ownership, then the Commonwealth should be able to apply the cost to the states.
Much ado about nothing methinks.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:59 am
peg
the difference was the attitude of the moderators, not the posters!
by zoomster on Apr 10, 2012 at 10:59 am
guytaur
Posted Tuesday, April 10, 2012 at 10:54 am
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/10/newspoll-quarterly-breakdown-2/comment-page-4/#comment-1213775
He really said that? ROFL! There would have to be more than a shade of Right Wing Projection there if so. http://images.theage.com.au/2011/09/12/2620795/ipad-art-wide-475463338-420×0.jpg
{Photo, The Age, 13 September 2011}
by Cuppa on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:02 am
Pegasus @ 162
I agree!
I have no problem with differences of opinion even if they are fairly robust.
But I think there is no excuse for the lack of civility that is sometimes to be found here. And I admit to probably being guilty at times myself, much as I try to avoid it.
by bemused on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:03 am
Cuppa
Yeah he really said it. Could not believe it.
Joe O Brien in wrap up says “he went o far as to say: HSU a corrupt work club”.
Know its in our favour this time. However nothing like a bit of editorial with your news.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:06 am
Can’t wait for the contortions when the High Court rules that it’s not a tax
by Narns on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:06 am
With the monopolisation of the mainstream media by the Right, the loss of an internet site for progressive opinions is a tragedy. No gloating from this end.
by Cuppa on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:08 am
Leroy
I did take the article as originally posted re Samantha Brick on face value without knowing any background. I will have a better look at the background of it all. I should know better than to jump in.
by victoria on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:09 am
Narns
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:09 am
One of the things I am finding fascinating with the “Tony Abbott has a gay sister” stuff is the way he is being painted as some sort of philisophical hero because he is refusing to budge on his opposition to gay marriage despite his love for his sister.
“Hey sis, people like you shouldn’t be allowed to get married. You’re not natural. But you know I still love you!” Nudge and a wink and golden boy gets his absolution.
This attitude is pretty much straight out of Susan Mitchell’s book. All the way through; anecdote after anecdote, one got the sense of a man who lives by his own rules and expects others to forgive him both when he flouts their rules as well as his own. He can do no wrong. Ever.
On the other hand, he is a famous hater; you cross him and you’ll never be forgiven. You have made yourself an enemy for life.
In short, the world revolves around him. You have to adjust to fit him, not the other way around.
Interestingly, I wonder if he would provide the same level of forgiveness he has expected (and evidently received) from his sister if she were a constituent of his and publicly announced that she was not going to vote for him on the basis of his stand on gay marriage …
by Danny Lewis on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:11 am
Women and poverty:
1. http://www.theage.com.au/executive-style/management/money-crunch-forces-women-back-to-work-20120409-1wl5r.html
2. Accumulating poverty?: women’s experiences of inequality over the lifecycle: an issues paper examining the gender gap in retirement savings: http://www.humanrights.gov.au/sex_discrimination/publication/gender_gap/
by Pegasus on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:12 am
Mumble on Newspoll
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/newspoll_quarterly_march_2012/
With Queensland also having got rid of their old and unpopular Labor government, then it’s reasonable to expect a similar ‘correction’ there.
by zoomster on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:13 am
Guytaur,
He’s a crackpot who only gets the time of the day because of his position as OL. In a responsible media environment someone like that would be ridiculed as a laughing stock, and their ascent to political power would have been a non-starter all along.
by Cuppa on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:13 am
Time for a campaign. For it to work the PM would have to agree to do the same. I am sure she would have no problem doing so. The campaign? A mid term ( or as close as we are) Leaders of the party solo appearance on QandA. One hour each for the majors.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:17 am
cuppa – as pjk decsribed him – our ‘resident nutter’
by Lyne Lady on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:17 am
Cuppa
I agree 100%. More if that was mathematically possible.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:18 am
LL
If PJK did not exist we would have to invent him. I still chuckle at “all tip, no iceberg”
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:20 am
bemused,
Belated thank you for speaking up in support of me the other night.
Though, I have to say, the difference between you and me is that you had to preface your support with wtte “that as much as it pains me to support a Green…”
When I supported you against a personal attack, I made no such caveat to my support as I can look beyond tribal loyalty.
by Pegasus on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:21 am
LL,
And, as Bob Hawke put it, mad as a cut snake.
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7005/6846117443_b0c1c5035d_b.jpg
{image thanks to @GeorgeBludger}
by Cuppa on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:21 am
Victoria & Guytaur
If you want to know more about the UK Daily Mail, see this great longer article. Not every UK paper who throws their weight around is a Murdoch none.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/04/02/120402fa_fact_collins
Have a look at the full article, lots of background.
by Leroy on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:21 am
Get over yourself Pegasus.
by Cuppa on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:24 am
Leroy
Yes. Thus my point about an apparent shift towards the left.
This may be more a reflection of editor view of audience than a shift in policy. Interesting all the same.
by guytaur on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:25 am
Pegasus @ 188
I suppose I did not make my thoughts very clear and conflated 2 issues.
Firstly as an ALP supporter and, indeed, member, it pains me that the worst behaviour on this blog comes from people who style themselves as ALP supporters.
Secondly, I am not here to defend Greens or anyone else so I was not really comfortable doing so. I am not a Green, regard them as just another non-Labor party, and never a reliable ally.
I see no reason, however, to be deliberately offensive or discourteous to any other poster. My exception is Truthy, but then he is exceptional, as even William acknowledges.
by bemused on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:31 am
A nice piss take on the Daily Mail.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPlEIryW8zA&feature=related
by poroti on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:35 am
Sky News is still insisting ( on its ticker tape) that Newspoll shows the coalition ahead in every State on 2pp and primary vote. My read of Williams post tells me that is a lie. I don’t buy or read the Oz but assume William is correct.
by al palster on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:40 am
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/04/10/317205_tasmania-news.htmlww
bart would result in the immediate loss of 50 jobs plus a haemorrhaging of filmmaking talent from the state.
Fears are growing that by the end of June, ABC management will abolish all Tasmanian-produced television except local ABC News bulletins and Friday’s 7:30 program.
The Hobart ABC bureau has long been considered a centre of TV-making excellence, producing much-loved national programs such as Collectors and Gardening Australia.
The loss of those shows, plus the ABC’s decision to axe local football coverage, has already had a dire impact on many highly skilled camera-operators, editors and sound technicians, who rely on casual shifts at the ABC.
If local production is cut completely, many independent filmmakers are likely to be forced to leave the state or even the country to find work.
It appears the future of the TV unit hangs on the success or otherwise of the ABC’s new Hobart-produced program,
by my say on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:42 am
e ABC has commissioned 10 episodes and last December a spokeswoman said “subsequent internal program commissioning in Tasmania will depend on audience response to the Auction Room series.”
“Some cynics will say we’re being set up to fail,” an ABC staff member said, arguing the show had been “buried” in the Sunday timeslot.
Some posters here have the above comment re the abc over time.
I willwrite to sen, lisa singh she was excellent during estimates re scott, ut i see to no availe
We also lost our hockey, and socer coverage, how do you inspire young people to play sport
Whenwe couod not get to cold frosty ground we, loved watching our hockey,
by my say on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:52 am
Gee, someone posted the real story about why power prices are increasing.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-08/calls-to-overhaul-electricity-sector/3936958
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:58 am
Two night ago, heard an employer in a tourist-related business explain that
1. Penalty rates must be abolished so that small business can afford to employ more people as well as increase profit (he called this ‘productivity’).
2. With penalty rates for special times/days, and therefore the “weekend”, abolished, people will be able to choose their days off. They will like this.
3. Some people will choose night work because it gives them lots of time with the famiy during the day. They will like this.
4. Fathers and mothers may choose to work at different times so that there is always someone home with the children. They will like this.
5. If families want to take holidays together, he was sure the employer would always understand and be accomodating.
And everyone will be happee.
As Danny L would say. “Sheesh”.
by lizzie on Apr 10, 2012 at 11:58 am