Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good Morning
http://www.whitehouse.gov/economy/buffett-rule?utm_source=email152c&utm_medium=text1&utm_campaign=taxes
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:40 am
And in another backfire:
Oh really? “Shocked”?
They’re popping champagne at the DT today. They got their “airport fury” going, and their relentless One Direction publicity pizazz has turned into a gusher.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/sydney-confidential/the-dark-side-of-one-direction-devotion/story-e6frewz0-1226325252987
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:40 am
BK @ 2100
The tragedy of the evil perpetrated by paedophile clergy is the ongoing pain & suffering of the victims, their families and their friends. This was brought home to me when I was a TAFE teacher, one of my Building Diploma students was the best friend of one such victim who had committed suicide. I started new classes with an “ice breaker” where we all introduced ourselves with a two minute spiel of our backgrounds in the industry etc. This particular student said that he had finished school a couple years earlier and had been drifting from job to job since and was aiming to get a qualification to start a career. He went to the same Christian Brothers’ school as I did. Anyway we got talking after class where he told me that in Year12 he and several other students (including his best mate) went on a religious retreat with a Christian Brother who abused his best mate on this retreat. His best mate took his own life sometime later. I could see how profoundly this affected my student. He was a nervous wreck, reeked of nicotine, was unsettled and only attended class a few times intermittently before dropping out. So I lost the opportunity to try to help him. This young man, although he wasn’t sexually abused, was a victim as well.
BK your post has reminded me of my student and over the past twenty years I have wondered what has become of him. I know that the abusing Brother (Michael Evans) committed suicide before he was to be charged by the NSW police in 1994.
http://brokenrites.alphalink.com.au/nletter/bccrime.html
by vote1maxine on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:40 am
The state liberal goverments short sightedness is absolutely frightening. What do they think will happen if the Murray Darling Basin eco-system dies? Don’t they realise that 40% of Australia’s food is grown on irrigated land in the MDB? What sort of life do they think Australians will be living in 50 years time?
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/strike-3-for-murray-basin-plan-20120412-1wwmw.html
by billie on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:42 am
Launching a missile is hardly rocket science………….
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:42 am
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/04/13/318151_tasmania-news.html
Gosh she is back commentating, i thought mssss’putt had
gone overseas towork
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:44 am
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/a-straight-shooter-20120412-1wwk4.html
good article
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/13408728/barnett-warned-on-gst-push/
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/13408733/former-judge-to-lead-media-council/
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/13408738/readers-chance-to-be-heard/
Let’s see how this media self regulation works out eh?
by Leroy on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:45 am
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/04/13/318151_tasmania-news.html
Gosh she is back commentating, i thought mssss’putt had
gone overseas towork…..
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:46 am
Hullo how is Bennelong now the tennis player has taken over, is he still as dumb as ever?
Terrible what you have written about in your comment so as probably most people would know or guess not only the actual victims are hurt!
Not posting much as grandson up visiting me and going out quite a bit
by mari on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:47 am
Barrie thinks the presumption of innocence, independence of independent bodies and due process are stuffy, “legalistic” luxuries:
Right, they do Barrie. So let’s start feeding-off, eh?
Oh yes, all that “legalistic” rubbish. Perhaps Barrie thinks the government should resign and call an immediate election?
That’s what Tony Abbott wants. I’m surprised Barrie hasn’t “fed off” that idea yet.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:48 am
Comment on Julia Gillard’s facebook post re Business Meeting yesterday.
Could Kevin Rudd also be involved seeing as Joe and he ‘did coffee’ at Coolum around the same time?
by MsAdventure on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:49 am
How come the people on the missing asylum seeker boat phoned Ian Rintoul to report they were in trouble, a call he passed on to search and rescue?
Just askin’
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:53 am
Well what was that that skimmed over the Portsea back beach at 7am today?
Lucky the anti-Russian gun emplacements were never removed!
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:54 am
BB
In the article in the Tele I think yesterday on 1D getting sued over name there was gem. 1D proved the worth of their trip.. It was due to them that Hadley got kicked off air due to a power failure.
The Light side of devotion.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 9:55 am
Not even the kids are safe.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:00 am
Morning All
Should be interesting to see the outcomes of COAG, and the press conference, Can’t Do talking up his version of competitive federalism this morning. Has some merit but I think the co-operative model is a much better way to go.
Maybe a representative from each party should be forced to do – well done to the Greens for highlighting a serious issue in a way that will grab some media attention
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8450591/greens-senator-to-spend-week-living-on-the-dole
by womble on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:01 am
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/12/most-expensive-cities-mumbai_n_1420653.html#s864143&title=1_Mumbai
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:03 am
vote1maxine @ 2152
I cannot but feel that one reason why these evils continue for so long is the failure of the Coronial system to properly and fully investigate suicides and unearth the underlying causes.
by bemused on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:04 am
Can you elaborate Guytaur?
I experienced the Hadley Half-Hour off the air. Blissful it was, too.
I harboured hopes that it might have been Leftist anarchists, or perhaps the Gods passing judgement. But now you tell me it had something to do with One Direction?
How so?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:06 am
Womble
Good Morning. I think Cant Do is going to be mugged by reality today. He will find he can talk competitive all he likes. He will find all that does is block. Not be constructive.
Queensland will suffer as a result.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:06 am
My goodness the catholic bashing never stops here, gossip, third hand stories, .
In all walks if life, there is good and bad,
The christian bros, school all our boys and oh went to, we have heard nothing like u paint.
They are all still members of the old students asociation, at our recent reunion, ee had over 3000
Attendees at various events through the week very eagerto meet ageing brothers, of course there was stories about how strict they where but most agreed they where not hurt by it and benefited and ‘the discipline was needed, we have 3 labor premiers from the school.
One being now in our family, high court judges, governor. Highly trai ed medical people, scattered
All over the world, of which over 100 returned for the celebtation.
.our grand son is there now, i may add there is no christian bros teaching,correction may be 4/5
Of the younger generation,, aust, wide
Next time u visit your surgeon, your lawyer architect, builder, shop owner, you my be surprised
To know they went to a chrisyian bro s chool.
As i said in walks of life there is good and bad,
I have had many an elderly brother stay here, , they gave up a life to teach, for NO PAY
by the way we turn no one away 40 percent non catholics, i may add,
.
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:07 am
A nice little bio of Australia’s Attorney General Nicola Roxon
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/a-straight-shooter-20120412-1wwk4.html
by billie on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:08 am
BB
I am at a disadvantage when it comes to discussing Grattan since I rarely read here and have now crashed all my radios, so rarely listen.
However someone posted Grattan from 2001 and it was very similar stuff about Howard that she now writes about Gillard. My point is that there are many on this site who worshiped Grattan when she attacked Howard but think she has lost it when she makes the same comments about Gillard.
I think it is high time Labor stopped blaming the media and started to look at substantive action to turn things around.
Exactly what did Howard do in 2001 to turn around his appalling polling? 9/11 obviously and Tampa but there must have been more. This is important because if Howard could do it so potentially could Gillard. First step is not to criticize the media. Rather to scrutinize what the media said in 2001, when they changed and why. Blaming the media is a high way to doom. Try considering why Grattin and others dislike Gillard. If you know why then you can stat to turn it around.
by daretotread on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:08 am
BB
All the activity around their Martin Place visit caused a power spike for some reason.
To see you will have to check out the article in yesterdays Tele about it that I referred to above.
I also did a post at the time and will go have a look to see where that is for you.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:08 am
Womble, Michelle Grattan has re-written your intro…
Consider your spine stiffened.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:10 am
My Say – i’m sure a vast majority of Catholics are lovely people but turning a blind eye to what has happened isn’t the answer. In saying that, it’s not just a Catholic issue – I think we need a national inquiry into the broader issue – mind you it’s probably too big to deal with that way
Sorry BB – I’ll try and do better in the future, thanks Michelle lol
by womble on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:17 am
How, pray tell – apart from re-cranking the presses at the old Labor Daily – is the government to get its message into the mainstream media?
The other day Gillard, Quigley, Conroy and Albanese ran an upbeat news conference re. the NBN 3-Year rollout.
The next day all we could find was stories about pork-barrelling, whingeing IT types who didn’t get it past their business premises, and hayseed farmers who are getting it but don’t want it.
Two days before that, Ray Hadley had refused to read NBN commercials seriously, inserting editorials before and after and putting a mocking tone in his voice as he read out the text.
In the mainstream media…
I have not seen ONE positive story on the NBN since.
I have not seen ONE positive story on the Surplus.
Nor ONE on Carbon Pricing.
I HAVE seen stories saying that the government doesn’t deserve or warrant coverage as they are too prone to “debacles” and will be “gone” next year anyway (Carney, Coorey). I have seen constant reminders that “the polls” mean we are ungovernable… the whole nation is on “hold” waiting with baseball bats, guns etc. for Gillard who has a target on her forehead.
How do you propose to get past that?
Advertising? Well, maybe, but the government has to wait until things like carbon pricing mature in order to advertise the deatails. This will take some time and will be trashed anyway as “propaganda”.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:19 am
vote1maxine @ 2152
Brokenrites and especialy Bernard are a wonderful organisation.
I know of an imminent large action against the Vincentian Order based in NSW.
A member of that organisation who was up on multiple sexual abuse charges but received a permanent stay actually received an Order of Australia Medal.
As reported in newspapers in NSW and Victoria, sexual abuse victims have petitioned the GG to have that honour removed.
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:24 am
BB
I did not put a link in my posts earlier about the 1D coup re Hadley.
As for the media I think it is simple. Legislate the Journalists Code of Ethics into Law.
Then the journalists will have to report the news. Both the positive and the negative in their eyes. I also would legislate to make all News Gathering Organisations a Cooperative. If you wanted to be a media tycoon you would be an entertainment media tycoon. Not pushing your agenda ahead of the National Interest of fair balanced and factual news.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:29 am
womble
I agree!
by MTBW on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:31 am
Ever heard of Robert ‘Dolly’ Dunn.
Furthermore, you live in denial!
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:34 am
The Government especially Nicola Roxon will be happy with this. Not that our media is reporting it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/apr/13/cigarettes-plain-packets-branding-ban
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:35 am
You also need to know who’s on the Board: includes Tom Switzer, Julian Leeser.
http://www.taxpayers.org.au/who-we-are/
by lizzie on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:37 am
my say mtbw
Turning a blind eye just discredits the Catholic Church. It is in Catholics best interest to lance the boil.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:38 am
Hooke from Mining Industry Council on News 24
Talking about the politics of envy. Demonise the industry. etc.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:39 am
Don’t forget the nebulous ‘LABOR SPIN’ argument.
by rishane on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:41 am
guytaur
Absolutely agree with you. The problem is that the Catholic Church refuses to publicly acknowledge that there is and has been a problem. My guess is that as long a Pell is in control it won’t happen either.
by MTBW on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:42 am
On negative NBN commentary, it doesn’t come any worse than the unfunny Valdman’s cartoon in the Adelaide Advertiser yesterday:
Woman: “What does NBN stand for?”
Man (installing cable): “Not bloody necessary!”
by Toorak Toff on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:43 am
MTBW
That is why a general Royal Commission into Child Sex Abuse to get facts would be good. It would have to be one looking into the ways in which organisations cover up such cases. Sporting organisations, church organisations, political organisations. The lot.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:44 am
Abbot about to give speech to Care Australia covered live on News 24. Major announcement of opposition position on NDIS.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:46 am
Oh dear! Fact Checking is just not the MSM forte.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/nz-outrage-as-australia-claims-pineapple-lumps/story-e6freuyi-1226325538748
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:50 am
guytaur
You would have to wonder whether any Government State or Federal would ever launch a Royal Commission. The Catholic cohort is pretty strong and represents a lot of votes.
In saying that the numbers attending Church regularly have dropped dramatically so maybe many who have basically left the Church would be encouraged by some action being taken.
by MTBW on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:52 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
Another Australian ‘disease’ spreads.
Move to stub out cigarette branding
BTW ‘c’oalition is UK Tory-LibDem.
Onya, Nicola! Onya, Gillard Government!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:52 am
The inquiry could convene with George Pell and the Parishs of Ballarat.
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:55 am
Abbot being introduced News 24
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 10:56 am
BB
A start might by to find out WHY individual journos are upset.
If we assume that the media bosses are playing their own political agenda there is not much Labor can do in the short term. It has been ever thus.
However the individual journos are another matter and Labor seems to have put off most of the opinion makers. These need to be won back along with emerging types. Labor needs Grattan, Oakes, Hartcher, Tingle, Coorey as well as Mega and others. I guess they also need the various bell boys and bimbos that pass for journos in the younger generation.
So step 1 stop whinging and work out why the individual journos are hostile. But this requires courage cos you might here uncomfortable home truths. No matter must be done.
Step 2: Let some good media performers off the leash – better to have Doogie spruiking left of centre (to counter Katter) than no voice at all
Step 3: Identify one really brave and powerful reform and go hard. Dental care is the obvious choice. Make 2013 about universal dental care (and while you are about it try to get Medicare back closer to Gough’s original.
Step 4: Go hard on the gougers. Swan has the right idea attacking the banks but I am not sure he has the personality to carry it off. Gillard herself should carry this one. Play to HER strengths (attack dog) as well as looking passionate and leader like. Get Doogie on board
Step 5: reevaluate talking points. Play down the squishy centrist issues – sweet but not election winners – Education, DIS etc are nioce but still squishy
Step 6: Really analyse the economic sweeteners – child care, PML, super, pensions. I hesitate to give advice because they are each costly but they are vote winners if handled correctly.
Step 7: Environment – probably wise to play it down as an issue. Cede this ground to the Greens but always stay just a bit better than the Libs, to secure Green preferences.
Ongoing: Figure out exactly what Howard did in 2001 – did he put something in the water supply that made the people love him again? -
by daretotread on Apr 13, 2012 at 11:01 am
Abbot now on.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 11:10 am
$548,000 is a fair whack of money from Pollie Pedal.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 11:17 am
My Say
When I am asked what school I went to school I now say St Peter Pheils (formerly known as St Pius X) in Newcastle. Five of the priests convicted, 4 in gaol (and one of the ring leaders remains unaccussed), over 130 boys sexually abused in a 30 year period, the Diocese of Maitland virtually bankrupt, the now Archbishop of Adelaide accused of a cover-up
This does not take away from the religious beliefs of Catholics but it does indicate a degree of corruption and cover up that would be unbelievable if it hadn’t been proven in court.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 13, 2012 at 11:18 am
SK
Thank goodness the rocket launch failed!
Sounds like you are enjoying God running Qld now.
by victoria on Apr 13, 2012 at 11:25 am