Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The Democrats failed because “Keeping the Bastards Honest” was not, of itself, enough to underpin a political party.
As well, the party was too small to revolve around a handful of strong personalities – a problem of course, for all parties.
At the end of the day it was probably Meg Lees selling her soul to the Liberals and Cheryl having it off with Labor which was probably the Dem’s death knell.
I sense the Greens are a different kettle of fish.
For one, they are to the left of Labor and leeching some Labor left-of-centre votes – much to the annoyance of some here.
Perhaps, secondly, they have a broader agenda than the Dems had, and such agenda is a relevant one to 1.7 million Oz voters.
The test of small parties is when the wheels fall off in the economy or whatever.
There is a tendency for voters to turn back to traditional parties either of mainstream left or right.
So, if Oz were suddenly embroiled in a war/catastrophy of some serious nature, I suspect the Greens would struggle. A lot would depend on the type of war, say one where Oz was under threat, rather than some foreign involvement such as Afghanistan.
I am happy to be proved incorrect by the way, as I think democracy is strengthen by the likes of the Greens on the political scene.
I know others here do not have much time for the Greens but give me them any time to the fascists to the right of Labor.
by Tricot on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Office bearers for the SA Greens: http://sa.greens.org.au/contactstate.php
Info is readily available
by Pegasus on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:12 pm
CU later
by Pegasus on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Kathy Jackson having a major dummy spit on ABC95. Seems the government should have stopped the HSU becoming a basket case.
Try to work that one out.
by This little black duck on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Indeed, although I give considerable credit to “Gareth Gareth” (Foreign Minister) who managed the UN end, and do give somewhat more credit to BobB. But, like most early Great Conservation Victories, it was far more a Labor win with considerable help from the good side of Mal Fraser.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:15 pm
LOTO statement on Bob Brown was ungracious. As usual with him.
by BK on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:17 pm
CTar1 @ 2284 – I have had a look at Penny Wong’s Press Releases over the past 6 weeks and couldn’t really find anything like what I had in mind. Yes, there are various references to the Abbott $70bn black hole, and the absence of any detail of spending cuts that Abbott will make, but nothing like a comprehensive go-forward comparison of likely budget outcomes under current Government policies compared with (what we know of) Abbott’s policies.
My thinking is more along the political tactics – that the Government just has to hammer away at the economic irresponsibility of Abbott/Hockey, but at the time get the message across to the elctorate that an Abbott government could really hurt them in ways Abbott won’t disclose. Kind of “you know what you’re going to get with our lot, but Abbott is one scary crazy dude and who knows what he’s gonna do if he gets into power!” Albo started with the revival of the “in your guts you know he’s nuts” line, and the Government’s ability to claw back some of the ground in the polls depends on how well it can build on that perception.
The starting point is a hard number of the Abbott/Hockey black hole (whatever it might be – I suspect higher than $70bn) and then start speculation about what Government programs will be cut under Abbott – basically everything would be up for grabs from the Government’s perspective (eg, “Abbott will have to cut the old-age pension to fund his nanny program”, said maybe tongue in cheek) – precisely because Abbott refuses to state what spending cuts will be made under an Abbott government.
We are pretty short on strategic and tactical advice to the Government on this blog – I say its time for the Government to start the scare campaign! At least there is a pretty sound basis for it, and may Abbott be hoist from his own petard.
by Outsider on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:17 pm
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/13/back-in-your-box-nbn-co-shuts-down-wireless-expert/
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned! from all “insider” accounts of “The Days of our Lives” goings-on at HSU.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Oakshott, if we had a private conversation i could enlighten u.
U know nothing
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:20 pm
I don’t think you should go against what Archbishop Doyle said about it:
http://cathnews.acu.edu.au/412/98.html
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Well still waiting , sen brown what did he achieve for us ‘
At least harradine always, voted on issues, after he had achieved an outcome financialy
For his state,
Now i will leave u all to argue ovet sen harridine lol because i know what the righteous will bring up,
Vica bayley, may be for the senate,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:26 pm
For those who think the comparison is apt for today’s events. Here is a comparison of Democrats leadership changes and the poll effects.
http://poliquant.com/what-next-for-the-greens-the-democrats-experience
by Scrutineer on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Senator Harridine ?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/06/10/ausaid-conservatives-have-blood-on-their-hands/
by poroti on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Qld Nurses appear to have done well out of the new Govt.
So now the benchmark has been set. Will Newman ever make a hard decision? All he has cut is the literary awards and corporate boxes.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Parot
There i new that would what was posted
Really find something else, he he, looked after his state
I a m talking about my state and representation
We need the freight eqalization s cheme, brown has said naught about that,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:39 pm
@ruawake/2364
So Newman cut’s to save and then spends it?
by zoidlord on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:41 pm
More utter Bullsh^t from Murdoch’s Mob & other camp followers.
It was only yesterday that I posted the following from London’s “The Telegraph” (aka “The Torygraph”): So the NewsLtd dill-brain & David Chalke are either being dishonest, or just haven’t done their research! A self-professed “social analyst” from Quantum Market Research who hasn’t bothered doing his OS research on high-speed fibre-optic BB! Would you trust your research to QMR after that sort of advertisement?
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:43 pm
He has not cut anything of substance yet but has spent billions extra. His budget will be fun.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Newman has opined that COAG is becoming dumbed down.
Must be the new participants.
by This little black duck on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:48 pm
OPT
That wally who wrote the crap about tablets is a market researcher, he should stick to research.
Well maybe, maybe not what % have a desktop, what % have a tablet and desktop etc. The fool is in hiding because he overlaid his opinion on the data, Journalists can get away with it researchers cannot.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:52 pm
To the contrary, Rummel, Brown’s speech was unremarkable, stock standard, as far as the theory of alien life is concerned.
It was based on the well-known, well-supported and quite conventional idea that the odds of two civilizations co-existing, within communication distance, and communicating, is negligible, given the size of the universe (or just the galaxy, for that matter), the time it takes to become sufficiently technologically advanced to communicate electromagnetically, and the presumed longevity (or lack of it) of civilizations..
Homo sapiens has been able to communicate by radio for a little over a hundred years. A hundred years is a tiny amount of time, compared to the time it took our species to become civilized, even smaller compared to the length of time our species has been in existence, and absolutely, microscopically miniscule compared to the time life on Earth has been around.
Even if we had been around,and communicating via electromagnetic means for 10,000 years, the ratios of humanity’s Communication Epoch to the time life has been extant on Earth would still be diminishingly tiny.
Now, multiply this tiny window in time by two civilizations and calculate the odds that both are around to communicate with each other, simultaneously, given proximity, signal strength and opportunity.
So, Bob Brown asked: how come we haven’t heard anything? Why haven’t we picked up evidence of another civilization out there?
Brown’s theory: any other civilization that might have been a candidate for communicating with us has already wiped itself out, probably through abuse of its own natural environment. Once again, this is stock-standard scientific thought. Hundreds of theorists in the area of extra-terrestrial life agree that this is the most likely scenario: Civilization has a shelf life.
Brown further argued that there is no reason to suppose that we human beings won’t wipe ourselves out too. One day, perhaps in a thousand or in ten thousand years, another civilization in another part of the universe may discover electromagnetic communication and they will – as we have – listen in vain.
We won’t be here anymore.
Moral of the story?
Look after the planet and we might be able to extend our time here. Otherwise we’ll be phoning home when no-one’s listening, or they’ll be listening long after our phone and us have gone out of order.
Hadley mocked this speech, even made one of his parody songs about it. But Brown’s point was a serious one, and it was one that is well-accepted by anyone who gives careful thought to the mathematics and the probabilities of alien life.
These people aren’t hippies and tree-huggers, as Hadley and others make them out to be. They have budgets in the billions. They are serious and so are the people who fund them. Brown’s point, his whole thrust was completely orthodox and quite appropriate for the leader of an environmental party to set out.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:53 pm
This is going to get down and dirty. Bring it on.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-13/cameron-urges-more-taxes-on-mining-sector/3948886
by BK on Apr 13, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Weren’t we promised leaked reports and massive revelations about the HSU which would be all over this morning’s papers. What happened to that then?
by roaldan1000 on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:01 pm
billie’s spelling #2306 is up to the level of his/her analysis. “venous lobbyists”??? As in, “you’re so vein”? . Do we mean venal perhaps?
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Nick McKim on News 24
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Marrickville, beware of criticising others’ spelling.
Usually the post that purports to do thos had thrwe typos and at ;est one mispeling.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Nick McKim ruled himself out of replacing Bob Brown as Senator.
He has not however ruled out running for the Senate at a distant date.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:07 pm
The Greens and the future
__________
If one looks at the European scene it is interesting to see how well Green parties have done since they emerged in the 1980ies
In Germany they were in in a national coalition with the Social Democrats prior to Merkel
In recent times they have emerged as the largest party in a key state abd bow have a coalition with the SDems,with a Green Premier….and when Merkel falls they and the new “Left: Party which is the descendent of the old Communist Part(and already on Coalition in Berlin local Govt) will,be essential to the ability of the SDems to form a national Govt
Interesting too that the SocDems have trouble in getting a primary vote above 30%..as is now the case here in Oz…
Likewise in France where they held seats in the Mitterrand Govt.
In Vienna a Green-Social Dem coalition won back the city council recently from a Right-Far Right coalitioin which had won power there for the first time since the 2ndWW
Vienna has a long history of leftwing govts….and the Greens have won seats in most European parliaments and in some govts
The times will favour The Greens too…as the disasters caused by climate change widen…as we have seen in the last two summers in Q’Land and elsewhere..the debate will sharpen though it is the view of the UK expert Prof Lovelock that govts will lack the will to act until it’s too late and the disasters will multiply.and spread worldwide
As Christine Milne said..the combined HoR and senate Votes for the Greens were nearly two millions(and public funding makes that an important point)
There will be no more Labor Govts ,state of federal.. without the help and votes of the Greens and their supporters..Get used to it !!!!
One can image by recent polls such a situationb coming in Tasmania in the future
Some on the Labor Right seem to forget that there is already a coalition with the Greens in Tasmania…and only the Greens hold the Senate balance which is essential to the Gillard Govt
by deblonay on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:07 pm
zoomster @ 2327
I wouldn’t be too bothered by billie and answering his/her rubbish. He / she let the cat out of the bag @ 2260…
So now we know… it is really ‘silly billie’.
by bemused on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Courier Mail headline:
It’s Autumn, Brown leaves.
by middle man on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:11 pm
bemused
Yeah that is what they have said about Bob Brown. Yet look what he has achieved.
silly billie would be handing out how to vote cards for the Fibs not the Greens.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:12 pm
She got this wrong, it is closer to 3 million but so what, the Labor vote is over 9 million.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:13 pm
I say all power to the Greens. They are going after the Nationals Vote.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:14 pm
PM News Conference
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:15 pm
I would like to pay tribute to Bob Brown and all he has done for this country and the people in it.
Enjoy your retirement, Bob Brown.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Milne elected unanimously in the party room this morning.
by Son of foro on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:18 pm
BB
Hadley wasn’t the only one mocking Bob Brown. Faine in Melbourne didn’t a pretty good hatchet too.
Apparently Bob Brown committed two sins in his speech.
1. He addressed his fellow travellers on planet earth as Earthians.
Oh, my dear god, how crazy to call earth dwellers earthians, much derisive mirth!
2. He made a comment in his address that after a walk at night, when he got back his partner, Paul, said to him, as he was getting into bed: Did you see a comet?
Uugh! Getting in to bed with your partner means s-e-e-e-e-e-x-x-x. Waaaaay too much information.
Grow up Faine.
Well done, Bob Brown.
And much as I admire Hawke, he was a political opportunist on the Gordon below Franklin issue. Bob Brown lived his convinctions.
by kezza2 on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:19 pm
guytaur. i find this strategy intriguing. and i’m assuming the Greens have some evidence – whether it be statistical or anecdotal – that has made them think this is a viable strategy. The mindset of the ‘bush’ will change with the generational change of ownership. There is already plenty of small scale eco/organic/sustainable type businesses that do both the producing and value adding. As a keen watcher of Landline you can’t help but notice the change in the stories covered on the show over the years. (but that could just be the filthy lefties that have infiltrated the ABC
)
by middle man on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Julia gets her skills stuff approved at COAG.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:22 pm
HECS for TAFE is one.
by This little black duck on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Ru. you mean Can Do didn’t scupper it??? surely he’s not a blowhard?!
by middle man on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:23 pm
ru,
The power of the purse!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Katharine Murphy missed the boat… again… and she admits it:
C’mon Kath, you’re a political journo, an opinion writer (I hope you don’t think you’re writing news stories!), and so far you’ve missed just about every major political story over the past three years.
You’re not alone, either.
Yesterday, when unemployment stayed put, to a person you and your colleagues expressed surprise, wrote about it almost as if it was an Act Of God that stopped unemployment from rising. It was certain to get worse next month, etc. etc. Except that’s you said last month, too.
Let’s face it: you believed Bob Brown wanted to stay in parliament until he was nearly 80, just like his “bete noir” Murdoch still heads News at a similar age. You swallowed it whole, Kath. Caught out yet again. Too busy going for the easy laughs about Gillard’s “debacles” and Labors “embattled” government. Too keen to bore us stuipid with more and more poll talk and how it’s so inevitable Labor will lose (all the time not offering any criticism of Abbott’s policies… difficult I know, because he has none… but at least you could’s tried).
And as for mumsy little stories about the reading habits of your pimply-faced son as a matephor for the nation. Spare us!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/the-greens-greatest-test-20120413-1wxxr.html#ixzz1rtW7vid4
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Sounds like Environmental Impact Studies won’t be duplicated.
by This little black duck on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:24 pm
middle man
As she pointed out Christine Milne is a country girl. That means she is the only country person leading a political party in Australia.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:29 pm
JG won’t be taking up Tone’s offer of a joint working party on the NDIS. Ha!
by This little black duck on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:29 pm
oops
Sorry forgot Bob Katter. Do not know how I managed that.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:30 pm
It’s a bit weird, I reckon.
by Son of foro on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:32 pm
yeah you’d think the hat would give it away…..
by middle man on Apr 13, 2012 at 3:33 pm