Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I am on the phone to Centrelink. The nice electronic voice advised the wait will be ninety minutes. Ater tone sacks 12000 aps staff i expect to be on hold listening to someones piano reciral music for 40 days and forty nights.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:46 pm
I’d like to see Abbott top that!
by kezza2 on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:46 pm
I double shocked. Damn left wing media.
by Son of foro on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Son of foro
Said introduction from van Onsolen was admittedly tongue in cheek.
by BK on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:47 pm
vic
i would say he’s supporting jackson bacause jackson is trying to crucify thomson. no more, no less…
by Lyne Lady on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Fairwell, Senator Brown. While they will still go on and probably grow at the next election, it’s still a loss to the Greens (and, indeed, the country) to see one of the giants of Australian politics go.
by Carey Moore on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:49 pm
You people do t get it senstors of each state should represent their state,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:51 pm
But why does Tasmania have to have 12 of them?
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:54 pm
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/04/13/318191_tasmania-news.html
Read the comments
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Only if Abbott announces himself dead!
by sohar on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:54 pm
12 in the state gov, ?….
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:55 pm
When you take brown out of green, you end up with gray. it aint Greens anymore
by The Finnigans on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Yes, the IPA is also funded by big oil.
by Son of foro on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:55 pm
O u mean senators , ask tbe founding fathers not me its in the constution,
Work to get it changed,
If your not happy.
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Dr John
by kezza2 on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Jackson has succeeded in driving HSU members to United Voice.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:57 pm
My Say
Do you want to rethink your use of the phrase “their own kind”?
Thats an intolererable comment.
by bluegreen on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Dr John
Oops, forgot to post the link
You can hear the Bob Brown 2GB interview here (go to the link below)
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com.au/2009/07/bob-brown-on-claims-jimi-hendrix-was.html
by kezza2 on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:59 pm
He bent over a street sign.
by bluegreen on Apr 13, 2012 at 4:59 pm
I wonder if Latika is the one who is annoyed………
by victoria on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:01 pm
my say
http://greens.org.au/content/tasmanian-freight-equalisation-scheme
I suggest you check your facts before posting such twaddle. (And you aren’t the only Tasmanian here – you just have a lot more to say.)
by Roxanna on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:05 pm
I can’t believe they let go of the “ALP stole our policy” mantra – for this dribble.
Good ole Bob Brown. He shafted them to the end.
by kezza2 on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:07 pm
My word its be nasty to me day
Ive seen liberals here called all sorts of names, i dont think that is name calling
Liberals are different to labor people, in many ways, social issues.
Especially, the enviroment, how they allicate, taxes, do you wsnt me to go on.
So you dont think their out look is any different to labor people
Go ahead and vote for them then.
Your just a bit up set thst the greens are no t lived by all in tasmania,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Regarding the NDIS Abbott is in no position to offer the government anything!
The
was in government for 11 years and did jack all!
by Centre on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:08 pm
The Trades HECS stuff is great news, HUGE for so many who want to become Journeymen. It will be lost in the ether of course.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Rhiannon…. I’m excited for the future!
I bet she is and can see the sun is rising on a ripening watermelon.
by rummel on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:12 pm
another gillard failure!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-13/pm-seals-skills-deal-with-states/3949146
by Lyne Lady on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:13 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
@latikambourke And Cardinal Pell will continue to control Tony Abbott.
In reply to Latika Bourke
by The Finnigans on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Abbott’s attempt to get ‘in’ on NDIS was all but rebuffed by PM who said she and COAG are getting it done.
Others have said Abbott just wants a c’ttee so he can destroy from inside and make PM look bad (plausible given Tone’s past actions on policy reform)
Obviously much of the Lib premiers’ precoag blustering was to attempt to have leverage of ‘public opinion’ on their side.
Sadly for them, PM does not bow to contrary populist public opinion. You’d think they’d know that by now?
by jenauthor on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:14 pm
well, For Whom the Pell Tolls?
https://farm8.static.flickr.com/7130/6912891534_141dab37dd.jpg
by The Finnigans on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:15 pm
rummel
Sour Grapes there Just like your glorious leader.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:15 pm
rua @ 2524
That’s approximately what the PM said in answer to a journo’s Q (inaudible).
by lizzie on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:16 pm
The mercury news paper
But Forest Industry Association chief Terry Edwards said he would not budge on demands that green groups’ overseas campaigns cease before he returns to talks.
(“I’ve heard there is a meeting next week. I won’t be there. There’s been no change,” he said. “What the Markets for Change is putting at risk is $750 million a year every year and 5000 jobs.
“It’s regrettable if Tasmania does miss out, but we will lose far more if we surrender to Markets to Change.”
Ms Putt said the group’s conditional offer of an overseas protest ceasefire still stood.)
How woukd u feel if things where being said abiut your state overseas.
“All I can say is that our offer remains on the table and
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:16 pm
jenauthor
Precisely. Btw did you have an opportunity to read that stuff?
by victoria on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:16 pm
(“All I can say is that our offer remains on the table and)
This also in the mercury from the same story
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:17 pm
HUGE.
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Kezza @ 2514
Bob should have stood Jimi up – he was so left (pun) field he was good enough to play dead.
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:19 pm
my say
The Gunns group has showed its commitment to Tasmania. Whatever the new name is going to be the HQ is moving not Melbourne. They might just annoy the Labor Party enough, the ALP in Tasmania will stop supporting it.
Oh and more jobs have been created by the Moma Gallery than by Pulp Mills.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Tasmania unemployment 7%. Why?
by ruawake on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:22 pm
What for? Because the only politician who could cut through has left…… No happy.
Because Abbott lives past another leader of a party…. No happy.
Because this will slow down the green mold creeping into to aspect of our life wanted or not….. No happy.
Because the greens have had the last moderate leave and now Gillard has to deal with fruit loops …. No happy.
Because gillard is wedded to a party lead by fruit loops backed up by a watermelon…. No happy.
No sour grapes here. I’m a happy little Lib.
by rummel on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:23 pm
When has mr brown apoeared on the local news, supporting us,
They have things in and on the web site, but i dont recall him,
actually standing next to lara giddings and supporting this,
The greensare never hapoy no mater what the concessions are and working against our interests
Overseas,
Ine thing stands out most greens putt brown mckim all imports
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:23 pm
I agree with all the comments about Abbott’s disgraceful performance with his Bob Brown comments. Not only were his words disgusting, his whole stance and body language was even worse. He looked away from the camera repeatedly with a sort of ‘Do I have to?’ look, then shrugged a few times before the usual umming and erring started. He sounded and acted as if he really couldn’t be bothered even trying to come up with a few words of praise. What a miserable little sod he is.
The Contrarians this afternoon was more in the same vein. Tim Whatsisname is also a disgrace. The ‘Aren’t I witty’ smirk makes me itch to slap him, I’ve heard more and much better ‘wit’ from the bunch of eight year old boys who have been playing outside all afternoon. At least they have a good excuse for childish comments – they are kids. What’s Timbo’s excuse? Lack of a brain perhaps. PVO was worse than usual too, with comments that could only be described as bitchy. For this crap he gets paid?
by leone on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Why ask the greens,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:24 pm
I suspect this may be what happened to the flight director in North Korea
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfLbxHktj_Q
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:25 pm
my say
Is that the you are not Tasmanian unless you have lived there 20 years?
I think you will find that Bob Brown has been busy trying to change things than do silly photo ops with one premier over another.
by guytaur on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Now have we all seen the success of a labor green team in Tasman who have locked up the state from every industry with the exception of tourism for the last ten years.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-12/jobless-rate-jumps/3946056?section=tas
While the country is doing alright Tas is a as good as Greece. That’s what happens when you play a green Labor dream. The only thing keeping them upright is the mainland handing over gst to them hand over fist. This is the future when the carbon tax shuts down all our mining industry by pricing our goods out of the ball park. Our carbon price $23, Europe $9..
by rummel on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Is this crap computer generated?
by Dr John on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Psychic stuff? Link didn’t work when I tried (on the site – not your link)
by jenauthor on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:34 pm
I give u links from time to time but tbey are not read.
Even some mainlanders who do not or never been here want the whole state locked up.
Heaps have been , there is little old growth logging now,
But still the protestors come sit in trees stopp work we tge tasmanian tax payer have to the police
Thst is rescue them from trees, they have put structures lie cubby houses in trees over the years
Buit fort like areas under ground, ect,
I do wobder sometimex do they work for a living,
Some years ago, i tollerated them as yes we had to get the balance ok,
Then they say its all for touism, well it cheaper to fly t o other destinations from sydney than to hobart, most days unless u can find a cheap flight that suits you,
i have writen to state and federal greens about the airfares
Not a word, see what i am sayi g its all trees and timber
I take it they use timber to build homes with,
by my say on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Okay I will start by wishing Sentator Brown all the best for his retirement and whilst I have on many occasions disagreed with him and his party.
I knowledge his contribution and his success as a leader for taking a party from its beginnings to become a minor but permanent player within the parliament that has for a long time been able to contest most if not all electorates and be involved in most policy debate is an achievement that Sen Brown can and should be proud off.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 13, 2012 at 5:35 pm