Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
lizzie @ 3189
That is a large part of the problem.
To make it worse, her deputy also fails in the same way.
If it were just a matter of having the best policies, the ALP would be a shoo in. But it isn’t!
Anyone who thinks the bulk of the electorate has some sort of a check list on which they mark the parties on policy is just delusional.
Sure, the policies have to be there, but they have to be made intelligible, desirable and exciting by great presentation of them. This is far more so for the ALP because it is expected to actually be doing things.
Even then, I suspect all the average voter is actually left with is a vibe that they want to vote a particular way.
by bemused on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Of course they do, its called the hip pocket nerve.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:48 pm
bemused
Even as I posted that, I was thinking that Swan doesn’t have the charisma to sell his good news, either. Pity…
by lizzie on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:50 pm
She’s not so bad, folks.
I’d rather Gillard’s presentation than the red-faced maniacal spittle-flying rictus one gets whenever someone like Barnaby puts something forward, wouldn’t you?
by smithe on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Lord Barry Bonckton
I have family in the Lockyer Valley. They call it hillbilly country.
Have met with Rickuss on several occassions at his office in Gatton.
He is bloody hopeless!
Moi lives in Toowoomba. We get the double whammy,conservative religious heartland of Qld.
by Dee on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:51 pm
smithe
Oh shit, yes. Barnaby
by lizzie on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:51 pm
confessions – that is a problem. If we have nobody even wanting to show them up as foolish most of the time then it’s no wonder the IPA and their mates get so much air time.
Where is our Jon Stewart? – there must be one out there somewhere. I don’t get Ch10 so can’t see the Project. Does that go anywhere near redressing the balance?
by BH on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Dee
But I bet you have a lovely garden.
There was a time when I thought of retiring to Toowoomba.
Then I found out about the flies bound up with twine.
by lizzie on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:53 pm
lizzie @ 3202
I really don’t think it is all that hard. They have to tell a compelling ‘story’ and make an emotional connection.
Keating could certainly do this and so could Whitlam.
And despite what many here choose to ignore, so could Rudd.
by bemused on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Out of the loop a bit here in Melbourne . Do we know why BB quit? When is it effective from?
I expect a bit of a drop in the Greens vote. We was a very good asset and good leader and Milne is a drop in standard.
by Diogenes on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:54 pm
It years gone by The Treasurer was the bad news guy, every Govt needed one so they could deflect bad economic news.
Yet now Swannee has to be all singing all dancing Mr Charisma. Give me a break.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:55 pm
ruawake
Well, somebody has to.
by lizzie on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Diogenes – William Bowe simply put too many restrictions on him!
by Dr John on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Correct, the very nerve Labor’s neurologists will be working on with regards to the Tories promises to wind-stuff back, regardless of consequences, come 2013.
Promising to take stuff like tax cuts, super contris, ‘compensation payments’, in short, any money at all from the electorate’s wallet going into an election is just plain dumb politics, folks.
I’d always thought the Libs knew this, a painful lesson learned the hard way under John Hewson.
Seems somewhow over the last 18 months or so they’ve forgotten. Never mind, fellas, labor will be giving you a nice remedial class soon enough.
As Chopper might have said: “Silly boy.”
by smithe on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Diog
To allow the younger generation to step forward. BB is 67.
by lizzie on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:58 pm
ruawake @3181 said “Except you are extrapolating Qld and NSW figures nationally. ”
slight correction there . Mod Lib is not extrapolating. He and i were talking about Dennis Shanahan extrapolating, and agreeing how silly it was.
by Phil Vee on Apr 14, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Rua:
Qld and NSW will be the movers and shakers in the next election. In the rest of the country:
Vic- not much room for ALP here
Tas- no room except winning back from Wilkie
SA- not much happening here
WA- very low base of 3 seats, but do you think the ALP can win more than 1 or 2 here?
NT/ACT- nil
The 7 or 8 seats up for grabs in Qld is huge.
Its hard to know how many NSW seats are up for grabs but given current swings its heaps!
I put the Coalition on 75 seats as the baseline (72 + Crook + Windsor + Oaky) as I think they are very very likely to remain in Coalition hands. Katter too, but I suspect he will win his seat and stay independent. So, the Coalition only have to win what they have/the 2 rural indies plus 1 other net seat.
Hard to see that not happening.
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Not until the year of retail.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Dee , sorry to hear that. At least you will have a beach side property when the CONservatives fu@k this world up.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:02 pm
And a load of crap. If You Libs are banking on winning every seat in Qld. Good luck/”:P
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Melburnians
I went to a store today called Minotaur. I have never seen such a geekfest in my life. People were wandering around in Wonder Woman and other superhero costumes as normal day wear.
I’m a nerd but even I have some standards.
by Diogenes on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Thank you to whoever first posted this video. Great story, great voice and great song:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
@ScottMorrisonMP @TonyAbbottMHR Watch this, http://www.youtube.com/embed/W86jlvrG54o?rel=0 – While you are shouting STOP THE BOATS!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Diog, we know, we know.
by The Finnigans on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:05 pm
r
You say that as if it were an accusation. My view is that AGW is the only first order issue the globe faces. Any party that treats it that way gets my automatic support. Mr Rudd pretended to, until the rubber hit the road, which is when he lost my support 100%.
BTW, your ‘accusation’ is only half right which is an improvement on your average, I suppose. I have been quite open on this blog that:
(1) I voted Greens in the Senate in the last election
(2) I voted Labor in the House in the last election
(3) That I did prepolling, polling day and scrutineer tasks for Mr Kelly (Labor) in the last election.
(4) That I intend to support Mr Kelly in the same way in the next election.
I tend to think in terms of centre-left voting rather than in terms of either or both of Labor Party and the Greens party.
by Boerwar on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Victoria @ 3066
Agree 100% – it is not enough to rebut the lies with fact – the buffoons must be called out as LIARS. The LNP must be shown to be liars. By way of comparison the USA Government is borrowing $4 billion a day and interest rates there are close to zero.
Channel 7 6pm news is now quoting Abbott blaming the Government with wtte ‘if the Government wasn’t borrowing $100m a day the banks wouldn’t have to put up rates’
by CO on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:06 pm
I agree that we need a Jon Stewart who can reach a mass audience.
I don’t get The Project either, so rely on comments made here about it. But it seems since Gina and co bought into Ch10 the show has increasingly relied on the likes of Price and Bolt. Not good.
by confessions on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:06 pm
It is almost impossible. Only if you count seats you will never win.
The L-NP have 72. forget New England, Lyne and Kennedy they will stay with the Indies.
So they have to win 3. They lose 2-3 in WA at least that is 6. BoF is helping Labor in NSW so a loss of 2 in NSW. So the need 8 seats. Good luck Noddy is your only chance.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Dio
Bob Brown will resign at the end of June which is the end of the period he has been elected for. In other words he will not re-nominate for his position and the Party will have selected another candidate to replace him.
by MTBW on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Brown’s current term expires 30 June 2014, not end of June this year.
by confessions on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Yes, its not like the ALP losing nearly every seat in Qld has any recent precedents!
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Not really he has another two years of his term, barring a DD. I wonder if his decision to be an environmental warrior outside of Parliament after retiring is a wise move?
Will Ms Milne get clean air or will Dr Brown be puppet master?
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:15 pm
7 seats is seven seats it is the number of seats the Libs will fail to lose the 2013 election by.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Cute, but I know you have to be kidding with that one!
NSW: hate to burst your bubble, but the ALP did well in 2010 in NSW compared with the vote, and there has been 4% swing AWAY FROM THE ALP on current polling.
WA: the swing to the ALP is only 0.4% here, so don’t get too excited!
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:17 pm
(’d much prefer Milne to SHY. At least Milne doesn’t burst into tears at the drop of a hat.)
I woud prefer she was in any one elses state
by my say on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm
7 seats / 89 seats is equivalent to 2 seats / 30 seats federally.
I suspect the Libs will fail to lose the 2013 by quite a bit more than 7 actually!
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Mod Lib
Why are you worried? Getting a bit worried.
Leukaemia remember the odd spelling. Only a few weeks till you write the cheque.
RU 1 – Mod Lib zero.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Federal Labor’s problem is ‘marketing’.
Give the media continuous little grabs.
I just happened to walk past the Ch7 news and for life of me there was a Coalition spokesman interviewed stating that JG was not fixing her wiring because of Swann’s desire for a surplus! Five minutes earlier Abbott on interest rates.
Get out there Labor and give the punters the simple stuff because they are simple. Drown the media in material
I thought after Labor’s disastrous election campaigns things would improve.
by Dr John on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Agree with the point you are making, but what makes you think they will run *anything* remotely favourable about Labor or give Labor an opportunity to put disinformation straight ?
by dave on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Don’t worry, IF I have to write a cheque, you can trust that I will, and that I will get the spelling right!
Its more than a couple of months left, and there are a dozen or so polls between now and then to highlight to the ALP caucus that they have tied an albatross around their necks.
They might just cut it off, you never know!
Have you checked out the latest pollytrend? All the dots are dragging the ALP further down too…
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:24 pm
At some stage you guys will realise this is one of your major problems.
I hope it doesn’t happen soon though!
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:25 pm
my say:
You aren’t keen on another Tasmanian as a political leader in the federal arena?
by confessions on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Who cares. People vote for self interest. They will look at Abbott and say thanks but no thanks. The Federal Electoral cycle is not doing anything unusual, in fact it is going to script, same with the State elections.
Stop cracking a fat – it will come to nothing.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Excuse me? I was always taken to believing you abhorred Abbott and feared an Abbott govt.
Obviously I got that wrong.
by confessions on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:28 pm
fess
The Project is definitely left leaning. The three main panelists are lefties but they get a few righties for balance. Bolt hasn’t been on for ages but Price is often there. They are pretty fair when they have a Lib on. It’s a soft show. Jessica Rudd has been on a few times recently.
by Diogenes on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Bemused
Whenever there is a story to be told no-one gets to hear it through the noise of the opposition.
Rabbott’s timing for the controversial is impeccable. Always monstering the airwaves sucking oxygen from the ALP with a complicit media with a lust for the negative.
The antics also had a detrimental effect on Rudd getting the message across.
Look at COAG! A monumental agreement from the states whose premiers going into COAG stated ‘No Way, No Deal’. Presto! There is a deal.
What does Rabbott do to trump COAG?
States he wants to be bipartisan on the NDIS, trying to make it his own. Not really! Just an exercise at sucking all the COAG news from the media.
Plus, moi thinks that Gillard has been so over analysed by the media that she has become a little too cautious with her words & emotion.
by Dee on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Mr Abbott is a cancer on our body politic. The surgeons in the Liberal Party who might remove the tumour are blinded by their vision of personal power.
Will they operate in time?
by Boerwar on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Confessions:
I am very happy for the ALP to keep damaging itself as we are not talking about the next election, we are talking about the next decade, and how much the electorate will trust the ALP in future.
Abbott will not last as the torch will be applied once we approach an election and after, and he doesnt inspire confidence.
In the meantime, the hubris about how ALP voters are smarter than everyone else is great for us Libs!
by Mod Lib on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:32 pm
A really important discussion has occurred in my house. Could Costa grow veggies in his beard?
Gardening Australia is watchable again for the first time since Peter Cundall retired.
by ruawake on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Dave – whats wrong with giving it a try?
I know the best direct marketer in Australia who says the same
by Dr John on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:36 pm
rua
I admit that I have some sort of primal and unfair, prejudice against Mr Costa. It could be the beard or what appears to be bodily disproportion. It is very unfair, I know.
So I wish him well.
ps hair is not a very good plant growing medium. It does not hold either nutrients or moisture well.
So, no vegie.
by Boerwar on Apr 14, 2012 at 6:37 pm