Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bemused are you old enough to know of JJ Brown, communist and State Secretary of A.R.U?
In another life I was undertaking research into technological change. After meeting with the directors of the Victorian Railways in their fancy boardroom, later that week I arranged a meeting with JJ. On entering his dusty office in Bourke St I sat down and commenced my spiel to which he rudely replied that because I obviously had not lived during the Great Depression he was not going to have input and would I leave with my tail between my legs.
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:14 pm
BK @ 3687
My first move after bringing home new bottles is to take a thick black texta colour and write a big ‘S’ on the shampoo and ‘C’ on the conditioner.
It works for me, but your point is valid, it should not be necessary.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:14 pm
It was whole front page Murdoch Sunday Herald-Sun
Gotta be right!
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Dr John
If that was the Herald Sun headline over a Labor initiative then I know it is Labor doign good work again.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Dr John @ 3700
I do recall JJ Brown but never met him. Sounds something of a troglodyte.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Dr John @ 3702
Nope, you need one of those bumper stickers: “Is it true… or did you read it in the Herald-Sun?”
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Bemused,
Yeah, you and him would have got on famously. What, being peas from the same pod!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Lol. They seem to think they can just throw this stuff out there wth nary a second thought about costings or consequences.
The Coalition’s turned into Brain Fart City.
And Christ, it’s starting to stink.
by smithe on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:22 pm
My last transport comment!
The best ticketing system should be free public transport. And what an economic stimulus it would be!
Not to mention getting cars off the road, less greenhouse CO2 and a reduction in consequent infrastructure costs.
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:25 pm
GG @ 3706
Me and who?
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Dr John @ 3708
We have the next best thing. It is cheap.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Not sure if already iinked earlier. But for those who missed it. Miranda Devine in News Ltd papers today.
In the hard copy of the Herald Sun
Big red letters say BEWARE then in white caps WOLF IN SHEEP’S CLOTHING. Opposiite is a big picture of Christine Milne with expression of a snarling dog!!!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/greens-country-girl-christine-milne-is-no-friend-of-the-bush/tory-e6frfhqf-1226326602622
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:28 pm
smithe – Barnaby debunked all this at 10.30 am today.
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:29 pm
by Leroy on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:29 pm
smithe
I’ve heard CanDo three times in the last week or so being interviewed. On each ocassion he has told of various taxes and duties that willl be cut or removed. He has also told of restricting price increases. I look forward to seeing how he can cut income and increase expenditure at the same time as returning Quinceland to a surplus and fufilling his promises. Those miracle working faith healing teenagers will be in high demand.
by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:30 pm
@Dr John/3708
I’ve always admired Japan’s way of doing transport, it’s a pitty we couldn’t get some of their expertise to redo the entire Australia.
by zoidlord on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Dr John
Ze Germans are starting already.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17660780
by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Dr John
I agree. Public Transport runs at a loss anyway. Free would not make that much a difference in cost when you take away wages for ticket machine maintenance and other cots. Ticket Inspectors and the like.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:34 pm
victoria
Link produced
There’s an error in the address or link you have entered in your browser;
There’s a technical issue and the page has not been properly published;
The article was removed to comply with a legal order;
It is an older article that has been removed from the site.
I’d like to hope it was a “legal order”, but probably tech error.
by lizzie on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:36 pm
SNIP: Can we please not paste articles in their entirety – The Management.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/greens-country-girl-christine-milne-is-no-friend-of-the-bush/story-e6frfhqf-1226326602622
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:39 pm
My rant for the weekend -
Well, what a scandal. The PM decides that a meeting with the most powerful people in the world is more important than a dinner for cashed-up wankers. Then she refuses to attend a glorified sports carnival, chosing to send a mere minister instead. St Tony of the Speedos, patron saint of wannabee triathletes would never have done that! He’d have opted for the dinner in a heartbeat and you would have needed a whole stack of cricket bats to beat him off attending the Olympics. Spending time talking to international leaders? Why bother when you can hang out with a leech like John Coates.
Since when has a meet for over-paid, over-hyped jocks who do nothing but churn up and down pools, run in circles, chuck things or jump over things been at all important? The money we waste on this bizarre event could pay for so many better things. Medical research, maybe, or a new university, or perhaps a few more hospitals.
My hearty congratulations to Julia Gillard for going where no other PM has dared to go by refusing to attend that dinner and declining her invitation to attend the games. Let’s hope she takes it a bit further. Funding for elite sports could vanish from a budget soon and young ‘athletes’ at the AIS could pay for the privilege, just as our brightest young minds have to pay for their uni degrees.
I hardly need to add that if Ms Gillard had decided to go to London the msm would have howled about the needless expense, ranted about her leaving the country at a time when she should have been here doing something far more important and criticised her arrogance in attending such an event when the rest of us could not afford to go. The woman can’t win.
by leone on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:39 pm
lizzie
I copied and pasted the whole article above
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:39 pm
http://nymag.com/print/?/news/features/liberals-conservatives-2012-4/
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/04/15/god-atheism-and-euthanasia/
by Leroy on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:40 pm
A lump sum $5,000 baby bonus turned into a $10,000 installments plan, with everybody getting the same amount, rich and poor, is starting to sound suspiciously like the government’s PPL scheme by another name, to me.
It works out to $385 per week over 26 weeks to me as opposed to a means-tested $589 per week (minimum wage) over 26 weeks from the government’s scheme. Much closer, at any rate, than Abbott’s “Lifestyle + Nannies” brain fart, where the little Nicholases and Jemimas are brought up in the style to which Mum and Dad have become accustomed… or not, epending on whatever rort you’ve arranged with your employer and Grandma.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:40 pm
guytaur @ 3617
Wishful thinking, it would be very expensive.
Trams in the CBD being free would be worth considering though.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Thanks for posting, victoria.
Lays out the conservative position, with bile and spite.
by lizzie on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I believe making public transport free would create problems in itself. It would be a victim of its own success, and the image of canned sardines comes to mind
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:45 pm
BB:
Interesting observation. Perhaps the coalition are readying to move on from Abbott’s regressive and expensive PPL scheme??
by confessions on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:45 pm
BB
You are onto somtihing. The coalition know that Abbott’s PPL scheme needs to get knocked off.
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:46 pm
For no apparent reason check out the Russian crowd doing “Putting (Putin ?) on the Ritz” .Apart from the snow these could be young people anywhere.
Finny if you are out there Yoko Ono texted Emmanuel to say how much she liked it,how much John would have liked it and said ‘thank you thank you thank you’. Oh and she has also got on to the “Glee” people to see if he can get a role.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgoapkOo4vg
by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:46 pm
I’m glad I had a chance to read that before it was cut. It’s behind a paywall online.
by lizzie on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Oops something
Confessions
Snap!
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Lizzie
No worries. Not surprised by Ms Devine’s bile!!
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Perth has free public transport in the CBD, out to West Perth, east to whatever the cricket oval is called, and south to the Barrack St jetty.
I believe Fremantle also has the same free public transport arrangement for its CBD area.
by confessions on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm
victoria @ 3726
It is also great for those whose journeys are well service by public transport (includes me) but discriminates against those whose journeys are impossible or impractical by public transport.
Public transport is still cheap and the emphasis should be on expanding services including building more rail tracks, particularly services NOT converging on the CBD.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:48 pm
John Coates can’t be all bad.
Fron Wikipedia:
[Coates and Sydney radio host Alan Jones have had a long standing feud that has occasionally ended in litigation.[10][11] In April 2007 this litigation was concluded when Coates was awarded $360,000 damages when a jury found a broadcast made by Jones in December 2004 conveyed defamatory meanings.
In August 2007 during a broadcast from Beijing, Jones made comments, based on wire service reports, about an interview that Coates had given in which it was alleged that he (Coates) had made disparaging remarks about Beijing. Subsequently, in October 2007, Jones apologised to Coates on air for his comments.]
Then again, perhaps just a falling out among thieves. I’d not have a lot of trouble believing that Jones would have rather fancied himself doing Coates’ job instead of being stuck at 2GB bedazzling bogans.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:50 pm
lizzie @ 3730
Easy to locate from the HS home page and then use the google trick.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Vicky and Confessions, perhaps so, but they’ll have to up the ante by another $200 per week to match Labor’s
planlaw.by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:53 pm
lizzie – getting around the Herald Sun paywall is the same as getting around The Australian’s. The online guides (there are a few mentioning The Australian’s paywall) tell you to google the title, or the first sentence of the article. This will give you a few results, with the one you want near the top.
Myself, I copy the whole url (the www. etc) of the article once I’ve opened it, open a fresh tab and go to google, drop in the url. The search result (which I have sometimes stuck into a http://www.tiny.url and posted here) will allow you click through and to go to the article you want. You can do this a few times a day, then you’re blocked. If you clear cookies though, or switch to a different browser, no problem.
They do this to allow articles to appear on searches. AFR’s paywall is not able to be got around in the same way.
All news junkies should know how to to do this.
by Leroy on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Watching Henderson on The Outsiders this morning I was feeling all clogged up with the gargabe he was spewing, most unpleasant. Then just the very sight of Pyne produced a most satisfactory bowel movement.
I feel llike writing to Pyne, thanking him for his valuable contribution to public life.
by Son of foro on Apr 15, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Son of foro
I find him the human equivalent of fingernails across the blackboard.
by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:01 pm
I wonder when Monica Attard is going to be invited on to Insiders to provide some Balance to the usual right wing crowd?
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:06 pm
OK, we all know John Howard received an honorary doctorate from Macquarie University the other day, but did we also know that Paul Keating recieved his the next day? I thought not. The media were all over the Howard award but the Keating award – like Howard’s a Doctor of Letters honoris causa – didn’t rate a mention.
http://mq.edu.au/newsroom/control.php?page=story&item=4874
by leone on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Is the comment by Barnaby Joyce about a baby bonus a way of feeling out the party of his chances of a leadership challange?
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:20 pm
I think Murdock has done political discussion a service by putting the Australian and the Sun Herald behing a paywall and I see no reason to damage that service.
by fredn on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Pyne considers Thomson is being unfairly persecuted like Jesus for political reasons.
[Mr Pyne told ABC TV.
”Julia Gillard can’t possibly stand by again surely and say this has got nothing to do with her, and like Pontius Pilate wash her hands of Craig Thomson.’
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/opposition-demands-thomson-speaks-with-nsw-police-20120415-1x13d.html#ixzz1s5FUjacD
by castle on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:24 pm
OK, you lot, I DO know how to get around the paywall via Google, but as it happened, just clicking on to the Herald Sun produced such a lot of useless engine revving from my computer that it was a pleasure to go back to PB and read victoria’s post and to thank her for it.
And the revving is caused by all the video adverts that try to download AFAIK.
by lizzie on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm
From the front page of the age:
What in the hell does that mean?
by fredn on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:28 pm
The PJK fans might like to have a listen to his address on receiving his award. There’s a link to Howard’s there too, but why would you bother.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PBetFY9jvQ
by leone on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:29 pm
But it’s a Coalition “signature” policy! Does that mean Abbott BSes even when it’s written down?
by Cuppa on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm