Crikey



Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. If you care about “free range” labelling for eggs, read this.
    It appears that we are about to lower our standards to compete with overseas producers, just like in the push for lower wages.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/farmers-crack-the-free-range-code-20120414-1wzyc.html

    by lizzie on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:35 pm

  2. Brisbane’s Go Card seem to work fine, it is the fares that are complained about not the electronic tickets.

    by ruawake on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:40 pm

  3. I hear John Coates is not happy because the PM will not be going to London for the Olympics.

    Of course others would be unhappy if she did.

    by ruawake on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:41 pm

  4. ruawake @ 3751

    Fares will always be complained about anywhere.

    I was in Brisbane for a couple of days recently and was surprised to discover you had a train to the airport! Leaves Melbourne for dead in that respect.

    I also noted some of your trains are wif-fi equipped. Brilliant for commuters.

    That trip did cause me to revise a lot of my ideas about Qld. But then… something else happened :(

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:50 pm

  5. For any one who has not read it

    by daretotread on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  6. http://www.themonthly.com.au/kevin-rudd-coup-any-other-name-rhys-muldoon-4668

    by daretotread on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm

  7. The list of mis-managing issues so far

    Mining tax:
    1. The mining boom was the only reason the economy was good under Howard
    2. Actually, the mining boom didn’t contribute enough to the economy
    3. Hey, I know….lets tax miners. We calculate we will raise $10 billion
    4. Oops, sorry miners, now well cut the tax- but, hey presto!, it still makes about $10 billion (ish)
    5. A few weeks later: Ummm, oops….. Actually, it was $20 billion (ish) originally not $10 billion, that’s how we can cut it and make the same amount
    6. OK, perhaps this aint going so well…..lets start this again
    7. We are going to refund the states royalties to the miners- deal?
    8. What! WA is raising royalties- how dare they?
    9. What! Qld wants to raise royalties- how dare they?
    10. What! NSW wants to raise royalties- how dare they?
    11. Any chance we can start this from scratch again please? We promise we’ll nail it this time…

    Asylum seekers:
    1. There is no queue
    2. There is a queue and Malaysian solution puts AS at the back of it
    3. We have a solution: we are sending AS to East Timor
    4. Oops, we forgot to speak to East Timor
    5. Lets put a freeze on all Srilankan and Afghani applications
    6. Why? Um….well….theres an election I guess….
    7. We don’t support the Pacific solution
    8. We are restarting the Pacific solution in Manus Island
    9. We don’t support Nauru solution as it hasn’t signed convention
    10. We will send AS to Malaysia even though they haven’t signed
    11. It was dog whistling when Howard was mean to AS to stop boats
    12. We are deliberately being mean to AS to stop them coming on boats
    13. We are determined to put the offshore processing to the house (repeated 3 times) to document Coalition members voting against it
    14. Oops, perhaps we wont put it to the House (it turns out we might lose and one or more of my own members may not rock up!!!)

    Carbon price:
    1. It’s the greatest moral challenge of our time
    2. Actually, lets do nothing for 3 years
    3. I can’t believe Rudd followed my advice- how stupid. Lets dump him
    4. We need to wait for community consensus
    5. Hang on, actually lets just introduce it despite community anger
    6. There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead
    7. Actually, there will be a carbon tax under a government I lead
    8. Lets arrange a community forum
    9. Lets not have the community forum
    10. We will tax the top 1000 polluters
    11. Hang on, I meant the top 500 polluters….oops!

    Then there is the Wilkie backflip
    The Australia network tender fiasco
    The fiddling the books to get to a surplus benchmark they set themselves
    etc etc etc

    Mod, after you read My BISONs, then you can lick up your vomits:

    http://afrankview.net/2012/03/more-australian-bisons-than-ever/

    by The Finnigans on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:53 pm

  8. I’m not sure Christine Milne’s style will win votes. Already she’s labelled Abbott pathetic (the man’s made his career out of women calling him names) and said he’s responsible for the ALP committing to a budget surplus (ignoring the fact that the history of the Hawke Keating government who tagged the Liberals as reckless spenders and delivered a couple of surpluses in the late 1980′s)

    by spur212 on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:57 pm

  9. Well, you can’t call Mod Lib listless.

    by This little black duck on Apr 15, 2012 at 3:57 pm

  10. ruawake

    Brisbane’s Go Card seem to work fine, it is the fares that are complained about not the electronic tickets.

    As a visitor to Brisbane a couple of years ago, and unpractised on public transport, I found the trains very convienent but the zones confusing.

    by CTar1 on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:01 pm

  11. christine milne has too much to say on too many topics – like many in greens, wish lists are list. but let’s give her ‘honeymoon’ – she might work a treat

    by geoffrey on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:02 pm

  12. State Labor divided Victoria into regions for the delivery of education and health services.

    I’ve been told that this structure was put in place to ease a transition from being a state to being a conglomerate of super regions.

    I would say, however, from my experience as a local councillor, that those regions are too large for people to feel that they have an input into decision making; local council gives them this.

    I have toyed with structures which would combine local voices with federal delivery – the most workable I’ve come across is a sort of pyramid structure, where each neighbourhood (say, 50 houses, or a CCD) elect a representative to a local board, which then elects a representative for a regional board, who then elects a representative to a state board, which then elects a represenative for a national board.

    by zoomster on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:06 pm

  13. Which topic do you think the leader of a party should not talk about?

    by This little black duck on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:08 pm

  14. I heard Milne talking on superannuation a few months ago – not totally crazy at all and a target I guess for broadening their appeal.

    by CTar1 on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:08 pm

  15. spur212 @ 3757

    I’m not sure Christine Milne’s style will win votes. Already she’s labelled Abbott pathetic (the man’s made his career out of women calling him names) and said he’s responsible for the ALP committing to a budget surplus (ignoring the fact that the history of the Hawke Keating government who tagged the Liberals as reckless spenders and delivered a couple of surpluses in the late 1980′s)

    Milne was a bit more nuanced than that and I thought she was very good.

    AFAIRC she was blaming Abbott for creating an environment where politicians are so easily trapped by words and felt unable to change course even when circumstances dictated it.

    I agree with her. Damn I wish she was in the ALP! Wasted in the Greens.

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:09 pm

  16. zoomster @ 3761

    I’ve been told that this structure was put in place to ease a transition from being a state to being a conglomerate of super regions.

    It came in under Kennett and I saw it as just adding another layer of bureaucracy to make it easier for all to escape responsibility for the consequences of his underfunding.

    But then I am known for my scepticism. ;)

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:12 pm

  17. Bemused

    Brisbane fares are WAY too high. I have a suspicion that this was one of the hidden anger factors. $11/ for a quite short return trip is way too much and lots of people just do not have that sort of cash – especially part time workers. If you say have a three hour shift in the city after tax etc the first hour is gone in transport.

    by daretotread on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:13 pm

  18. For anyone who wants to have a look at a half-senate election on the current polls

    http://poliquant.com/the-next-senate-on-current-polls/

    by Scrutineer on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:17 pm

  19. Thanks poroti. Your link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgoapkOo4vg made me look back and smile at days long ago when Fred Astaire was all the rage, and then to the time when the Beatles were little more than boys. That link to Russia of today made me feel very optimistic for the future. Unimaginable sixty, even forty years ago when the Iron Curtain was so real one didn’t even think about Russian teenagers and pop music lovers who might be just like us.

    by PatriciaWA on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:18 pm

  20. daretotread @ 3766

    That does seem a bit high.
    You can check Melbourne fares here h­ttp://www.myki.com.au/Fares/Metro-fares

    The maximum for an all day, go anywhere, any mode is $11.08 with MYKI or for the metcard troglodytes, $11.90.

    A 2 hour zone 1 is $3.28 / $4.00

    Overall I think it is not too bad apart from those who make a short journey, particularly one that crosses zone boundaries.

    What I particularly like is that MYKI calculates the least fare so I don’t need to buy a daily metcard for what I think might be a 2 hour return journey but could get held up.

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:22 pm

  21. That interview on Insiders. Pyne pinned hopes on a double dissolution or pressure on ALP befroe that to overturn a Carbon Price.
    The problem he and the Coalition have is thiking that can be made enogh of an election issue after people have experience of an actual Carbom Price.
    As someone has mentioned. Carbon price interest rates on hold or going down. GST interset rates going up.

    by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:22 pm

  22. PatriciaWA

    Unimaginable sixty, even forty years ago when the Iron Curtain was so real one didn’t even think about Russian teenagers and pop music lovers who might be just like us

    I’m glad you liked it. I linked it because as you say it shows “they” are just like us. Compare and contrast with the crud we were told about the russians during the cold war. In recent years I’ve worked for and with russians. Wonderfull people. Gotta love people that have a word for being drunk for more than three days :) … Zapoi. Also love the Swiss army knife word.. Davai !

    by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:25 pm

  23. PatriciaWA @ 3768

    Likewise for China and that remains (in theory) still a Communist country.

    The first book I read about China was “In Fear of China” by Greg Clark, back in the 60s. An entirely different world now where I can communicate with friends in China via the internet and even discuss politics with them. My son has travelled freely to and from China on business and there are many Chinese students and immigrants from China, including a friend who will soon become a citizen.

    Unimaginable back in the 60s.

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:26 pm

  24. bemused

    under Kennett, the regions did not align, which created all sorts of problems.

    Now they do.

    I’ve stated the reason why they do, and anyone who supports the abolition of the states would understand that.

    That said, there are good arguments against getting rid of the states. An Abbott federal government, for example.

    by zoomster on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:27 pm

  25. PatriciaWA

    Oh and the Kremlin in the background and all :)

    by poroti on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:28 pm

  26. zoomster @ 3773

    under Kennett, the regions did not align, which created all sorts of problems.

    Now they do.

    I wasn’t aware of that, but it makes a lot of sense. When did it happen?

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:29 pm

  27. PatriciaWA & poroti

    I had friends who travelled all over Russia during the communist era and had a great time and found the Russians very hospitable and friendly. It certainly dispelled a lot of mythology. OTOH, Stalinism and its evils were very real.

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:32 pm

  28. Bemused

    If the Greens hadn’t played politics on the ETS in 2009, Abbott wouldn’t be an issue today. Milne is also responsible for the environment she accuses Abbott of creating. The budget surplus is a different story. The ALP since the Hawke and Keating governments has always believed in pragmatic fiscal policy. Conserve and stimulate when needed. If there’s another GFC, Swan has given the government and the RBA room to move

    by spur212 on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  29. vexnews ABC insists Ryan beat Kroger 276 to 139, Kroger supporters say it was 216 to 199 #auspol #lol bit.ly/IKXe9I
    14 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:33 pm

  30. latikambourke Can reconfirm the initial numbers I tweeted re Scott Ryan (276) v Helen Kroger (139) are absolutely correct.
    20 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:34 pm

  31. latikambourke Attempts to put out incorrect figures to try and lessen the margin of defeat and demotion for Helen Kroger are very revealing...
    18 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:34 pm

  32. Too late now, but more Pyne lies this morning on Insiders.

    Pyne said that Gillard had fudged giving Coates a date for the dinner, hence the clash.

    Mr Coates is also angered Ms Gillard will not attend the Australian Olympic Committee's June 23 fundraising event in Melbourne.

    The Prime Minister usually makes the keynote address at the dinner where 1,400 guests fork out $22,000 for each table.

    Ms Gillard will be attending the G20 leaders meeting and the UN Sustainable Development Conference at the time of the dinner.

    "It is crucial that the Prime Minister make Australia's voice heard at international meetings like these," her spokesman said.

    "What John Coates didn't mention was that we offered alternative dates to the AOC - but the AOC turned them down."

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-15/coates-angry-at-pm27s-olympics-snub/3950918

    by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  33. Pyne on Insiders was also saying the next election will be a referendum on the Carbon Tax. Its a silly political party that thinks it can say what an election will be about, they tend to have minds of their own.

    by ruawake on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  34. spur212

    I agree with your point. about ETS but not your second sentence.

    To me, economic conservative means orthodox Keynesianism. The economic radicals these days are the neo-con austerity gang.

    What you describe as pragmatic fiscal policy sounds Keynesian to me.

    by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:36 pm

  35. Have not time to stay long but really the chances of having a successful referendum to abolish the states is negligible so not worth even discussing. However Bemused did raise the idea of additional states and this certainly could be achieved. However you would still have mega states (eg Sydney Melbourne and SEQ) so I am not sure it would achieve much. A North Qld state and a Northern NSW state has something going for it as the distances are huge and population high. North WA too but population is not large.

    by daretotread on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:38 pm

  36. More states = more bureaucracy (And we’ll turn into USA/Europe with many different types of laws in each state).

    by zoidlord on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:41 pm

  37. DTT@3784

    If small regions start seceding to form states, there will be some dissension about the number of senators the new states would be entitled to.

    There would need to be a magic formula to determine what the senate entitlements would be.

    by Scrutineer on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:44 pm

  38. Zoid

    The USA does not have a COAG process

    by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:46 pm

  39. sspencer_63 @Pollytics @latikambourke we had surplus in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and interest rates rose 11 times
    about 7 hours ago in reply to Pollytics

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:48 pm

  40. I see the idea of Abbott having a double dissolution to remove the carbon ‘tax’ gets an run every now and then.

    If Abbott is lucky enough to survive to the next election and get in they’d have to hold a gun to his head for him actually do that although he may do all the manoeuvors needed to do so.

    He’ll be busy hoping they can make the budget look good enough so he can do more pork-barrelling to buy votes.

    Does anyone actually believe that he ‘hates’ the carbon ‘tax’ enough that he’d put himself at risk to remove it?

    by CTar1 on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

  41. Its an interesting fact that only two Australian PMs have visited an Olympics held outside Australia. Fraser and Rudd.

    Rudd did so for diplomatic relations with China.
    Fraser went to the 1976 games in Canada, maybe he should have stayed home given the medal tally.

    So thats it. Howard went to Sydney of course. (does not really count).

    So what is Coates on about?

    by ruawake on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

  42. Some of the points Ivor Ries (formerly with AFR but has been a stockbroker/analyst for years now ) made this morning on Kohlers business show put the opposition to the NBN into greater focus.

    He reckons Foxtel’s book value on their balance sheet will need to be written down by half within 5 years because of the impact internet TV will have. It will effect Telstra, Murdoch & Packer, owners of Foxtel. They are already having to reduce prices via bundling Foxtel with phone & internet to reduce customer churn.

    A huge range of specific internet TV channels and individual programs will be available free or at very competitive prices sourced locally or from overseas. (OK probably more crap as well – nothing new about that). Most TV being sold now can already do IP TV.

    He reckons Apple TV will be bigger than Foxtel within a couple of years.

    Free to air TV channels are losing their key demographics 19 to 39 year olds which generate large amounts of the FTA channels advertising income. These audiences are rapidly going to the internet and not coming back, Ries reckons.

    We already know print media is a dying industry and its future is also on the internet with some sort of pay model. Some niche areas of print industry will survive.

    Even if murdoch is still around in 5 years time some of his Australian media assets might be unsaleable even if he wanted to sell them. But they will be making less money then they currently are with written down balance sheet values. Newscorp have never been generous with dividends on its shares even in the best of times.

    If Abbott gets into government he might delay some of the above but not stop it.

    Retailers are facing huge challenges from the internet which are also international and unstoppable. This is also going to impact values of commercial/ shopping centre and rents as the pace of internet retail sales increase.

    But there are huge opportunities for those who embrace the changes of global markets. Its unlikely to be current players who exploit these opportunities. They are still in denial and looking for someone to blame while screaming for a so called level playing field, ie protection.

    I think Telstra will I be a winner. They will and are changing. They know now they have to treat customers decently otherwise they stuff themselves.

    Interesting times. None of the above businesses are going to do Labor any favours. They will lay the steel tipped boots in at every opportunity.

    But it won’t stop them having to change their businesses if they want to remain trading.

    by dave on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

  43. Further to 3786, the main constraint for a magic senate entitlement formula is that each original state must at least 6 senators and the number of senators for the original states must be the same.

    by Scrutineer on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

  44. dave

    Something we poll bludgers always knew. Murdoch Wanted the NBN to be stopped in its tracks, and the govt needed to be toppled for that to occur.

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:53 pm

  45. (Kersebleptes has been banned.)

    Why just come home.. read back a few pages

    by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:53 pm

  46. ru

    I was under impression that Coates is upset that The PM cannot attend fundraiser on the 23rd June, not the actual olympics.

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:54 pm

  47. Bemused

    I’d describe the ALP as New Keynesian

    by spur212 on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:54 pm

  48. my say

    I dont know why Kers was banned either,

    by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:55 pm

  49. "What John Coates didn't mention was that we offered alternative dates to the AOC - but the AOC turned them down."

    Will the ABC add that to their news bulletins when they show comments from Pyne?

    by BH on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:57 pm

  50. CTar1
    Posted Sunday, April 15, 2012 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    I heard Milne talking on superannuation a few months ago – not totally crazy at all and a target I guess for broadening their appeal.

    If you leave ground behind someone else will take it. I don’t think anyone can argue that Labor hasn’t chased the Liberals to the right. Doesn’t seem to have done Labor much good, but it has definitely helped the greens.

    by fredn on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:58 pm

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