Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
my say and victoria
I think kers was banned for abuse.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Yes if Abbott does win the next election CLEARLY, he will go for control of the Senate. He I believe will scrap both the mining tax and carbon tax.
I will be cheering because the Greens deserve it!
Unlucky Round 7 Bludgers, my first losing week. My multi Manly/Roosters/Warrirs/Eels never got sighted.
I did not have enough on the Warriors and put too much on the Dogs. Sheez they were lucky, bloody Storm
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Courier mail comments on the Olympics story are generall in favour of Gillard not going, but there are a couple of “Thank God, she’s an embarrassment.” type comments in there.
The Mirror had only one overtly disgusted comment, by someone who didn’t have a clue of the history of PMs and Olympics: no attendances at overseas games from 1980 to 2004.
Here is the comment, for what it’s worth:
See what I mean? “All Prime Minister’s(sic) go” is just wrong. In fact its 180 degrees rotated from the actual situation.
“Mrs Caroline Yuile” from Milperra is actually rather prolific. Her comments crop up regularly in the DT, usually one of the first to make a contribution too.
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=caroline+yuile+milperra&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Centre
One day you will accept that the Melbourne Storm are a brilliant team.
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:02 pm
It is both.
by ruawake on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:02 pm
ru
Thanks for clarification
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Centre @ 3801
I think you may be right – I know it is a long way out but I fear a huge defeat. See also:
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Election betting: Labor out to $4.25: Coalition in to $1.22. Is there a thumping Newspoll result tonight?
by CO on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Centre @ 3801
Deciding what policies a country should have based on this is juvenile lunacy.
Come on tha’ blues stuff.
by CTar1 on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:06 pm
No one should expect a catholic hospital to perform abortions,
Re the w. Article
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:07 pm
victoria & my say
His post at 3551 may be the reason.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:08 pm
I imagine Bemused that you worked on Metcard which was written by Arthur Andersen, Accenture in 1992 and failed to take account of change of century. Rather than give passengers free travel from Christmas Eve to Australia Day while they ran their end of year stuff, the DoT spent a small fortune incorporating change of century.
I think MYKIs congestion at CBD stations can be solved by making all of Melbourne zone 1.
Why should possession of excellent eyesight be a prerequisite for using a ticket? Why does a public transport system assume that all users have a smart phone and a computer.
Your sneering arrogance towards stupid users is the attitude that gave IT a bad name and encourages corporations to write their software in India
by billie on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:11 pm
guytaur/bemused
I enjoy Kers when he posts comments, but sometimes allows emotions to get in the way!!
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:11 pm
my say @ 3808
Then the Catholic Church should fund it an not accept Govt money.
Can’t have it both ways.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Victoria, they are brilliant at holding down an attacking player to prevent a quick play the ball.
They are even more brilliant, in fact outstanding, at giving away an intentional penalty when the attacking team is in their own 20m line.
They were great at the grapple tackle and crafty at, not a technical breach, but a BLATANT breach of the salary cap.
But hang on it gets better; they were always GIVEN a softy softy draw at the start of the season under the control of News Ltd. Now that the ARL is back in control, hopefully that should end!
Finally, so much for commentry bias, the glee when the Storm scored 4 minutes into the second half, when it should have been a PENALTY to the dogs, was positively sickening!
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:12 pm
I think MYKIs congestion at CBD stations can be solved by making all of Melbourne zone 1 – relieving need for passengers to touch off.
After all you can travel in a on VLine train on a paper ticket and travel around the metro area for free for an hour or all day
by billie on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:13 pm
bemused –
I might call my next horse that!
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Centre
Settle. Your slip is showing
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:13 pm
While I think that the government’s CT compensation will be forgotten (and probably spent) before Crunch Day when the electricity bills are due to be paid, I can’t see anyone volunteering to give up a handout, especially the raising of the tax threshold to $18k.
Abbott is relying a lot on people thinking that Labor in opposition, in conjunction with the Greens in the Senate, will temper his excesses by refusing to allow him to get rid of the CT and the NBN (to name two policies).
I’ve heard this a lot. They want their cake and want to eat it too.
Gillard should start out by highlighting every policy that will be reversed if Abbott keeps his promises, pointing out that the nation will be losing some of Labor’s more popular policies for the sake of their self-image as baseball bat wielders.
If that doesn’t focus the punters’ nind sufficiently, she should try the Keating Gambit: hint that she may respect an Abbott mandate.
As Frank Sinatra used to say, “All or nothing at all.”
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:14 pm
CO, I think it’s a bit too early to gain a true indicator through the betting markets at the moment.
The betting is aligned with polling this far from an election. If the odds don’t move three months before the election, Bludgers should consider whether they still wish to contribute to PB with the
as PM.
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:19 pm
billie @ 3810
Silly billie, you are at it again making a fool of yourself.
I have never worked for Arthur Andersen or Accenture.
I did, however do some Y2K work for a railway organisation and saved them a fortune by fending off all the hysteria and not wasting money.
And how would that help? Everybody still goes through the same barriers.
It doesn’t and you are more of a fool than I previously thought if you think that is so.
It is a small subset of users who are stupid and have a whinging mindset. Most just get on with their lives and use the system.
What on earth has any of this go to do with outsourcing software writing to India.
Your thoughts are jumbled, illogical and all over the place. I cannot believe you work in IT.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:20 pm
victoria @ 3811
Yeah, I know what you mean. There seems to be a boundary which I try not to cross although I do get sorely tested at times.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Me neither victoria, back to the future
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:22 pm
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Thats right Vic – but the range of businesses that are going to be / are already effected and the fact that its now being debated publicly in detail down to the effect on major players balance sheets – which means taking big losses – by parties who would normally be regarded as *fan boys* of those companies, is new.
They know the game is largely up. Its now just the time line that is in play.
One example I heard the other day was huge air shipments twice weekly of high end fashions, mainly womens fashion from the UK direct to retail cutomers. The latest stuff and much cheaper, far cheaper than the GST difference and free delivery in many cases.
Point being our business people have to grasp and implement way of selling stuff out of Australia.
by dave on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Dr John @ 3815
Dr John, you are a character.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Coates never got upset with Howie, good ole Howie, though good ole Howie didn’t attend the 2004 Olympics.
by castle on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:29 pm
dave
I have mentioned this before. My kids order clothes mainly from the UK. Both my older son and daughter’s wardrobe is full of clothes from overseas. The clothes are of good quality and so cheap compared to what is on offer here in Melbourne. Also the style of clothing available, especially dresses for my daughter, are so diverse and different. The retailers here need to get their act together
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Next game, they play the Warriors at home AGAIN
The Storm 7 wins from 7.
Round 7 they finally get to play a decent team BUT it’s at home. Ooohh another hard game in Round 8 – AT HOME AGAIN.
It’s a joke!
Compare their draw with Manly’s, now that’s a draw!
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Be nused
I knew u woukd say that. ‘O well take the giv, funding away, now think that through for the sake of one procedure,
So funding all gone, now u try to get a hio replacement, an mri scan , surgery of any kind,
Lets say the hospital is funded only by charity, like ut was before the late 50.
Then of course we had UNPAID STAFF! NUNS they trained as nurses midwives ect, they where paid nothing,
This meant people like your mother ect could go there for births . Thats only on example,
Then came government funding,
They have never done abortion procedures, these hospitals today are still run by regious, and if there is any nun still there NO pay. So u woukd close the orivate system down for one procedure,
The day the gov, expects these nunsto allow abortion in OUR/MY cstholic hospitals is the day start protesting on the streets again,
Uf people want an abortion go elsewhere
Brfore u make sweeping statements , think’think,
We are talkng one procedure here amoung thousands
And zealots would shut down the whole private sector for one procedure
That sadly can be done at a government hospital
l
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:34 pm
David McRae -I seem to remember that the discussion was that the Indies could not be counted on to pass the legislation if it was presented. Wilkie hadn’t been successful in convincing them to vote for it and the initial deal was that he would help gain support within the cross benches for the bill. It was reported by Sky initially that Wilkie accepted the decision but within 1/2 hr Xenophon had been in Wilkie’s ear and that’s when he came out and ranted against the PM. In fact I seem to remember that X talked to the press at the same time. No wonder JG was ‘white hot with rage’.
by BH on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:37 pm
This has been a good weekend for progressive politics. The MSM has been all over the place in trying to attack first Labor, then the Greens. None of which has stuck.
Senator Bob Brown suceeded in wiping all other coverage out with his timing. For a week or two we are going to see more focus on the Greens.
So voters are going to remember that Parramatta Cabinet Meeting. Then business and Labor working together. Then the Greens. The take out? Labor works with people. Labor works with business. Bad news for the Coalition selling the illusion of incompetence.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Charming.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/04/marine-in-trouble-for-twitter-comment-about-trayvon-martin-shooting.html
by The Finnigans on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Victoria, centre’s vent re the storm is mild compared to the low esteem they are held by a lot of league supporters. And no, it’s not jealousy
by outside left on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:39 pm
My Say.
Does not change the obligation of those accepting government money. They want to be religious in their choices that means no government money. If that means they offer less service so be it.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:42 pm
outside left
I have already covered this topic yesterday on this blog. If you are interested, you can go back and read my comments. Basically, we Victorians are fully aware of the NRL not wanting Melbourne in tne League. The NRL Stands for Neanderthal Rugby League in my eyes. In any case, I dont follow NRL. AFL is all we care about here in Vic and of course, we dont mind the rest of Australia being part of the league. We are a progressive league.
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:43 pm
victoria @ 3843
Speak for yourself. Some of us are more cultured.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:45 pm
3834 doh!
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Political betting markets are a poor indication of actual results these days.
I could radically turn the ALP price around tonight for as little as $5,000.
Evans of Centrebet ($4.25) is very opinionated and is biased towards liberalism but still wont let you on Labor for much as I can attest. Rudd was odds-on to lead the party only 2 months ago and now if you shop around $8.00 on offer.
I got $5.00 Baillieu a week before the state election even when Labor insiders thought they were gone. Proof of pudding.
by Dr John on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Centre
Parramatta and Easts in a multi? It is 2012, not 1981.
by shellbell on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:46 pm
I liked Christine Milnes comments regarding visiting the troops. She stated she would only go to support the troops. It would not change her mind on getting out of Afghanistan. However she would have to be convinced the troops wanted her there. She did not want to be a politician getting in the way of troops doing their job.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:47 pm
3812
Then the Catholic Church should fund it an not accept Govt money.
Can’t have it both ways
3812
Then the Catholic Church should fund it an not accept Govt money.
Can’t have it both ways
BEMUSED AND NEITHER CAN U!
IF U DONT LIKE IT GO ELSEWHERE! If u need surgery, make sure next time u call an ambulance
its not a catholic hospital
Actually the nuns took all people non catholics, athiests, calthumbians, and no one
O
pad them a thing,’ all people got was a bill from their doctor, even food was provided in the early
Days if our catholic hospital here.
There was only one hospital the rhh.
Calvary hospital and i hapoen to know a few nuns who went to the adelaide one as well.
Mother mary potter bought 10 irish nun out to aus, as there ws no hospital to care for catholic woman, there main aim was to provide care for the sick and palative care, for ALL demoninations
Actually we have a big reunion comong up babies born at calvary, it has had more deliveries than any
Other hospital in tas, and u want them todo abortions
Over my dead body,
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:49 pm
daretotread
Thanks for posting the Rhys Muldoon article above – very interesting!
by MTBW on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:52 pm
My Say,
Catholic hospitals might not want to perform procedures that are against the teachings of their church. However many Catholic hospitals are actually public hospitals funded by the state. Hospitals like St Vincents, The Mater have to accept public patients who are sent to them. Public patients might not want to be in a Catholic hospital but they ought to be entitled to receive the medical treatment they need irrespective of the church’s prohibitions.
by billie on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:53 pm
my say
We do not live in a theocracy where the Catholic Church gets to decide who is treated and who is not. Abortions are legal. That means the Cathoilics calling themselves hospitals have to provide abortion services when accepting one dollar of public money.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:54 pm
.
{Does not change the obligation of those accepting government money. They want to be religious in their choices that means no government money. If that means they offer less service so be it.}
So lets see, the government help fund sport,
Ges i want the VFL to field teams eg the men play the woman , u go along with that
Then at top level u want that then no. Of corse not
U two disgust me, to my core,
Bemused if i was a nurse at a hospital i would not help with tat procedure
So bemused and gurtur would you
Get over your every one must conform to what u want
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 5:57 pm
my say
No that is Catholics trying to impose their will. Unlike you the Church has decided to accept that money and do the abortions. The Catholic Church has decided that is in their interest despite their objections.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:00 pm
can do can close all those expensive hospitals now , and use those kids to fix everybody ?
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:01 pm
In SENSATIONAL soon to be breaking news, it will be revealed that the AFL will be unable to sustain an 18 team competition from 2013 going forward.
The following recommendations are to be implemented for the long term viability of the competition:
1. The Richmond Tigers will merge with the Western Bulldogs.
2. The Hawthorn Hawks will merge with the North Melbourne Roos.
3. The St.Kilda Saints will merge with the Geelong Cats.
4. The Carlton Blues will be expelled from the competition indefinitely.
5. News Ltd are to aquire 50% ownership of the West Coast Eagles, Freemantle Dockers, Adelaide Crows, Port Adelaide Power, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast Suns and Sydney Swans.
6. News Ltd to own and control 100% of the new franchise, to round off 14 teams, the West Sydney Giants.
7. West Sydney Giants, to tap into a huge new market in the best interests of the AFL, WILL be given first refusal of every player freed from the reduction to 18 teams.
8. In future West Sydney Giants will blatantly cheat the salary cap resulting in two premiership wins.
9. Everyone in Melbourne will love the West Sydney Giants – Orders from the Herald Sun and Foxtel!
* Oh yeah, we orgasmically LOVE the “Melborne News Ltd – Super League Reward To John Ribot – Stom!
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Shellbel if you took the short odds the Cows and Sharks, good luck to you!
by Centre on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Centre
The AFL are not owned by News. We have clubs with members of 70,000 plus. The NRL are inferior in every way. Get over it. As I said. NRL belong to the seventies. Retro is the word.
by victoria on Apr 15, 2012 at 6:03 pm