Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
daretotread
well said twice times. caucus staged a coup – but this is australia, not some hick third country (or is it) and the public did not accept June 2010 – took a while to register, but when it did they turned – many have parked votes but soon a real alienation will set in … “dream on” has been substituted for the dream. the imagined enemy within is greater than the one outside the party. rudd never gets much of a look in here, but the ruddistas are still awake (and maybe only them). labor stares a true electoral paralysis in the face – queensland rubber stamped on the nation as a whole.
by geoffrey on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Gary
Billie boy does not think it is time for a challenge yot so not leaking. After july it willl start again
by daretotread on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:23 pm
bemused.
No the video the Colition i going to use is far more damaging. “no carbon tax under a government I lead”"
You know the Coalition are going to air that over and over.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:23 pm
(Now they are in government in Tasmania.)
W R O N G! only mc kim, and ms oconor are the other greens are not they stayed sepeate
often argue with mckim
And one of those greens out side the circle only won by 100 votes,
There is nothing i dont know about my state.
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Tell that to DTT.
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Only 3 ministers have been booted from Cabinet: Rudd, Kim Carr and Robert McClelland. I agree, it is funny that the leaks damaging to the government have stopped
by sprocket_ on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:24 pm
bemused
no these things are relative. julie and wayne are the walking dead of a past fading tradition. Rudd is clean
by geoffrey on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:24 pm
my say
That is as much in government s the Nationals have been.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:25 pm
The leaking before hand was not designed to help billie. It was designed to help Rudd. Now, who would do that then?
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:25 pm
I have go e now so if u argue this your talking to your self
by my say on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:25 pm
so Abbott’s big backbench is starting to make some noise
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/how-abbott-would-craft-his-cabinet-as-pm/story-fn6bn88w-1226327135461
by sprocket_ on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Gary @ 4098
In the aftermath of 23 – 34 June, I dare say plenty of people had knowledge of certain events and it was inevitable they would leak out.
However, I agree with Mumble, they were not what caused the poor election result. Poor campaigning and some stupid policy announcement did that.
It is also obvious that plenty that could have been leaked was purposely withheld.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:26 pm
guytaur @ 4102
Yes, along with the subsequent stupid concession that it was a ‘tax’.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Gary @ 4104
I was referring to Rudds assassins.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:29 pm
No-one wanting Gillard to win would have leaked. It was someone or some people want retribution. Again I ask who would that have been?
You can believe what you like. Mumble is not the all knowing one. I happen to believe the leaks destroyed Labor’s campaign.
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Gary @ 4114
I am untroubled by that.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:32 pm
The leak about Gillard’s reaction to the pension increases in cabinet were toxic.
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:33 pm
bemused
what caused the poor election result of 2010 was that the public were not long or easily fooled. after a week of dazzle the narrative of julia’s coming into office unravelled – and has stayed unravelled ever since. what is amazing is that the opinion polls have not changed and public has not forgotent – abbot has helped but the deep dissatisfaction has been there since july 2010. so much for the strategy of popular traction by dumping rudd – after the first week or two, this has never worked. never. no one can claim it has. rather than critiquing the true cause of poor polling, every other excuse is claimed, esp msm, greens, gender, religion, carbon, and of course, quite amazingly, rudd himself – bad in office and bad out. a lot of spin needs to be lifted before things come back to some clarity and electoral success
by geoffrey on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Me too.
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:33 pm
It is also funny that the only place where the benevolent reign of Kevin Rudd is still fondly remembered is here on Poll Bludger.
With Bemused as the loyal supplicant maintaining the rage.
by sprocket_ on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:34 pm
But bemused is neutral sprocket. We all know that.
by Gary on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:35 pm
I also agree that after July 1 things will change. In fact I think that is what the Coalition is afraid of. They know this budget surplus destroys the incompetent argument. They fear another NBN project. This is why Abbott wa s desperate to claim ownersship of the NDIS.
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Gary @ 4120
Have I ever said that?
I have always thought Rudd far and away the better leader, but tried hard to accept Gillard and like both.
As more has emerged and particularly after the disgraceful behaviour of Swan, Crean and others in March, I have given up on the Gillard camp.
I will still work for the ALP regardless of who is leader, but not with my previous enthusiasm. I will just have to focus on my local member and forget the bigger picture.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:40 pm
[so Abbott’s big backbench is starting to make some noise
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/how-abbott-would-craft-his-cabinet-as-pm/story-fn6bn88w-1226327135461
Cant believe that article didn’t even mention Julie Bishop?? Have they just written her off as a non-entity you think??
by imacca on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Goodnight all.
Don’t stay up too late.
by bemused on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:45 pm
@bemused/4122
Either way, that’s what you suppose to do, but the general public thinks that local/state = same as Federal and vise versa.
@imacca/4123
Or protecting her?
by zoidlord on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:45 pm
http://www.afr.com/p/national/nds_claims_face_scrutiny_TEOuooap2ZQ28b2aii4LGO
http://www.afr.com/p/national/states_back_gillard_national_disability_HWaWCPUaSjhmb9OMsriRbM
by guytaur on Apr 15, 2012 at 11:53 pm
I am from qld and don’t hold our PM guilty of Treason. Rudd got rid of Howard and his cronies. Full stop. After that , giving Downer a cushy job and not doing the “Night of the Long Knives ” job on any Howard Huggers was wrong. The sky thing was about HIM , not the people or Party. He is a Traitor of the qld people and the Labor Party. I vote Green , then pass my vote along to the Labor Party. Rudd turned out to be a Dudd , end of story. He had a job and failed after getting rid of the rodent. In the real world , you fail in your job , they sack you. Move on people.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:06 am
Imacca , that’s Ltd News telling Abbott what to do and when. Coaching from the side line.
Night all.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 16, 2012 at 12:25 am
I would dearly love if someone could track down the original interview, showing the context to that answer.
by cud chewer on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:41 am
LBB, while I don’t share your views on Rudd, I do agree that he should have been less forgiving and less apolitical – he definitely should have done something more urgently about all the Howard plants – for instance in the ABC, SBS, other orgnisations.. and of course look at that idiot running the future fund and his remarks about the carbon tax. He should have been crushed long ago.
by cud chewer on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:43 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Looks like another vocal pressure group for the government to contend with.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/private-schools-warn-of-fee-rises-20120415-1x1q3.html
Never mind the legal advice he has received. If he had received it from Brandis SC it would have been a different matter.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/opposition-demands-thomson-speaks-with-nsw-police-20120415-1x13d.html
Well, Barnyard, that did a lot of good. “kiss of death” perhaps.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/joyce-appeals-for-kroger-to-keep-her-safe-senate-spot-20120414-1x0jv.html
Annabel Crabbe sums up airports quite well.
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/welcome-to-tullamarine-your-humiliation-begins-now-20120414-1x0ca.html
Alan Moir gives Fatty a serve.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Cathy Wilcox sums up the Pell/Dawkins QandA.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
by BK on Apr 16, 2012 at 6:01 am
Nice attempt at verballing me. My point is that the claim that what happened to Rudd is somehow undermining the country’s democratic processes is fatuous and wrong. A metaphor? Please don’t make me laugh.
As for unprecedented, there is nothing unprecedented about parties changing their leaders. There was nothing unprecedented about what happened to Kevin Rudd.
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 6:21 am
In many ways the Rudd worship is very much like the worship Obama cultivated. People became starstruck by the man, rather than looking objectively at what they stood for and what policies they represented.
No wonder we see emotional outbursts and stupid claims about Rudd somehow representing leftwing causes. People have constructed an entirely false representation of what they see Kevin Rudd as being. It was always going to end in tears for these people, if not then or now, then next year when he departs politics.
What sets Rudd apart from Obama on that front is that Rudd was removed long before any serious buyer’s remorse could take hold. If Rudd had remained as PM we would have a dysfunctional, non-achieving government with the public really having turned off Rudd out of disillusionment.
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 6:40 am
Frustrating to see the discussion rewound to the topic of Kevin Rudd, again! And what’s with the use of the term “assassinated”? Take a look at the guy; he’s living, breathing, walking, working… he’s not bloomin’ dead. He wasn’t assassinated! Get over yourselves, please.
by Cuppa on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:03 am
Cuppa,
When John Gorton was PM and Billy McMahon challenged there was a vote. It was tied and Gorton graciously stepped aside.
by kezza2 on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:17 am
Aussie commedian & song writer Tim Minchin in among those bathed in Gold for Matilda the Musical
Good morning, Bludgers.
Not only in Our Cate & her Sydney Theatre lot slaying ‘em at the Barbican, we’re right up there in Royal Shakesperian Company’s record-equalling Olivier Gold. Bet Tim won’t rate a stamp, though.
Any bets on how long it takes our not quite ‘new’ news MSM to announce it?
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:20 am
Oops. Link Dahl’s gold: Matilda the Musical dominates Oliviers RSC’s stage version of children’s novel takes record seven prizes at UK theatre’s most prestigious awards ceremony
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:22 am
O ffs will you get over The Rudd Franchise: Series Next – the NeverEnding Saga! If you can’t, save it for night patrol’s Resurrections With Vitriol and Verbal Warfare sessions. This is Dawn Patrol – breaking news time!
Get a life on the Dark Side. Lighten up and find a kid with whom to share the latest hardback ‘comic’: Darth Vader and Son, By Jeffrey Brown
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:38 am
daretotread
Firstly, you read a lot into my mere pointing out of facts – that Queensland Labor was heading for defeat even when Federal Labor was polling well. A bit over anxious to make your point, rather than to look at the evidence?
That old chestnut. People were saying it about the Libs in Victoria, when Ballieu was there all the time.
Both of the majors get written off on regular basis. Labor was out of power federally for nearly thirty years, and survived. It’s in nowhere near the same situation now.
Obsessing on the primary vote (although admittedly I’d like it to be higher) ignores the fact that there is now a party to the left of Labor, whom everyone knows is taking at least 10% of “Labor” primaries.
by zoomster on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:43 am
Kezza,
That sounds like the same sort of orderly handover from Rudd to Gillard. Assassinated, my… ass!
by Cuppa on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:45 am
morning bludgers
Not that I give a rats, but The wonderful Herald Sun team “mistakenly” announced the gold logie winner on their website before time. Poor little dears.
Hard copy of the paper is at it again with Peter Slipper, and good old Andrew Bolt is demonising the Greens. How unsurprisement.
And as earlier linked, Philip Hudson is giving Abbott advice about a reshuffle.
And for some positive news, I heard an NBN ad on the radio.
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:52 am
tech glitch reveals winner
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/technical-glitch-reveals-winner/story-e6frf7jo-1226327271324
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:53 am
OPT
Fiction from the 1970s
Rewriting . . . what ifs.
And that’s breaking news?
by kezza2 on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:56 am
http://www.news.com.au/national/slippers-got-form-on-travel-spending/story-e6frfkvr-1226327329042
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 7:56 am
When did she says this? I remember her agreeing (with Oakes?) that because the price was fixed for three years it acted ‘like a tax’.
by Son of foro on Apr 16, 2012 at 8:02 am
And now for the serious side of OS news: affecting exactly what I’m doing right now, and all those who make this Blog, esp William, and its host Crikey …
The Battle for the Internet
Last week, the focus was on UK, esp LibDem, rage at Tory proposals to oversee all IT: emails, you tube, facebook … THE LOT! Today, it’s the fight against the Not Our Spooks doing the spying on us this time – Asians, the Middle East!
Pardon this old Leftie for catching a Conspiracy Theory whiff of The Good Guy Spooks’ ie OURS yelling Look over there! Look over there! Commie spies! Islamic spies! after last week’s outrage about The Good Guy Spooks’ spying on ordinary British (& other Good Guy Nations’) citizens.
That being said, it’s still a Very Important Topic in the Freedom of Speech v Information Control Freaks cold (so far) war in which we are involved.
This one’s just hit the G’s front page Inside Washington’s high risk mission to beat web censors: In the first part of a series on the struggle to control the internet, Oliver Burkeman finds out why the US is spending millions to help activists communicate
This follows the one up when I logged on to The G earlier Web freedom faces greatest threat ever, warns Google’s Sergey Brin: Exclusive: Threats range from governments trying to control citizens to the rise of Facebook and Apple-style ‘walled gardens’
Let’s face it, the chances of this debate’s featuring as prominently (or at all) in our pathetic MSM are somewhat less that Buckley’s.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 16, 2012 at 8:04 am
victoria
All of Slipper’s spending revealed to date occurred when he was a Lib.
Bet News Ltd is itching to get their hands on his expenses after he resigned from the party!!
by kezza2 on Apr 16, 2012 at 8:04 am
Cuppa
And it’s corollary – treachery, my . . . ass!
by kezza2 on Apr 16, 2012 at 8:10 am
Who would have thunk that Andrew Robb supports ANZ raising interest rate and says the Banks are suffering in their profits.
by The Finnigans on Apr 16, 2012 at 8:11 am