Crikey



Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. CTar1 @ 4343

    I checked with Google Earth and Wilton is about 80km from the CBD by road. A reasonably fast express train (not HSR) should be able to do over 100Km/hr without too much track upgrading so, depending on the exact route and number of stops, a trip to the CBD in well under an hour is feasible. The East Hills line which runs under the existing Sydney airport connects with the main southern line so it is a possibility.

    A route through Paramatta which is becoming a major business centre in its own right may make better sense. What do you think?

    by bemused on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:24 pm

  2. Essential Research: 56-44, down from 57-43. L-NP 48 (-2), ALP 31 (steady), GRN 11 (steady).

    by William Bowe on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:29 pm

  3. As I am not a journalist can I do a Latika Bourke here and ask “What do the Liberals dislike about Fair Work Australia?”

    So far I know that
    * FWA took to long to investigate Craig Thomson
    * FWA report did not make Craig Thomson leave Parliament
    * employers want to hire people for 90 minute shifts
    * unfair dismissal – can’t small employers fire at will – so what’s left

    by billie on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:29 pm

  4. Life is full of ironies. It’s funny how Dr NO is such a YES man to vested interests.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:30 pm

  5. Re Canberra airport being the second Sydney airport.

    It may look good for fatty to agree with this option but a longer view of this option looks terrible for the party that holds Eden Monaro. If Labor was to agree with Canberra plan the locals of Queanbeyan would go feral as we already sit under or near the flight path. (canberra is a labor town and not even labor care about canberra).Now I can hear planes every day and don’t mind. I hear them start up and take off first thing in the morning and don’t mind. What will tip the locals is if the snows get there Greedy way and start up a freight hub with planes flying in 24/7.

    Though I do like the thought of building the new airport on lake George (on stilts).

    by rummel on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:31 pm

  6. Thanks William

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:32 pm

  7. BW@4288:

    Don wrote:

    You have confused going to war with the recording of our history.

    BW wrote:

    This is what the war memorial does, systemically. It takes participation in our various wars for granted rather than providing an opportunity for visitors to have the opportunity to think about whether we should have gone to our very many wars in the first place. This is not history, it is the bastardisation of history.

    What utter nonsense.

    BW, you are a fine writer, but in this case you are off the planet.

    The AWM describes the wars, and it does it well.

    It is not there for your political or emotional agenda. It is a place where participants, their families, descendants, and the general public can gain an insight into what wars were like, and it does a superb job.

    Of course there is no smell of shit or burning flesh. How ridiculous.

    Fund and set up your own war museum if you have an agenda like that. The AWM is there for the rest of us.

    by don on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:32 pm

  8. Massive public support for NBN in latest Essential – 57% to 22%. Even a slight majority of LNP voters are in favour (42 to 40).

    This issue is a deadset loser for the coalition. In fact, it may have already cost them the 2010 election.

    by Ataraxi on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:33 pm

  9. bemused – I don’t know enough about the existing rail infrastructure to know. Where ever it’s built a second A/P needs a very direct connect to Mascot.

    I think the Badgerys an an option is gone. And Wilton is probably the only other workable option but not possible without NSW Govt support – and that doesn’t seem probable any time soon.

    Unless things change greatly it would be suicide for BOF to go to the next NSW election saying he’d say yes to Wilton.

    All in all – SNAFU. Mr Howard and Mr Costello come on down.

    by CTar1 on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:34 pm

  10. Question from a naive person who doesn’t live in NSW.
    How many people who land in Sydney are on their way somewhere else?

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:37 pm

  11. Lizzie

    According to wiki

    Sydney Airport is one of the oldest continually operated airports in the world,[5] and the busiest airport in Australia, handling 36 million passengers in 2010[6] and 289,741 aircraft movements in 2009.[7] It was the 28th busiest airport in the world in 2009. The airport is managed by Sydney Airport Corporation Limited (SACL) and the current CEO is Kerrie Mather. Flights from Sydney link with all states and territories of Australia. Currently 47 domestic destinations are served to Sydney direct.

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:39 pm

  12. Well who would have thunk that. The head of #IPA defending Robb defending the Bank profits on #Skynews

    by The Finnigans on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:41 pm

  13. Full results from Essential Research.

    by William Bowe on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:41 pm

  14. Unless things change greatly it would be suicide for BOF to go to the next NSW election saying he’d say yes to Wilton.

    Isn’t that is what is wrong with everything political nowdays? It’s all about winning the next election and not what might benefit the State and country in the long run. I know I want Labor to stay in power federally but I also want them to forget the goddarned weekly/fortnightly polls and the clowns in the media sideshow and just do what is good for the long term, not only the 3 year span.

    If BOF is so scared of doing anything when he has such an enormous majority and no chance of losing the next election then there is not much to say for him. Or is that the reason why he was so long in opposition and had to wait for NSW Labor to be on the nose after 16 years in power.

    by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:43 pm

  15. lizzie

    I wikied Melbourne Airport. I did not realise this. Another kudos for our fair city :)

    Melbourne Airport has received numerous awards. The International Air Transport Association ranked Melbourne among the top five airports in the world in 1997 and 1998[74][75] and, in 2003, presented it with the Eagle Award.[9][76] The Australian Airport Association named it the Airport of the Year in 1999,[75] while Business Traveller Magazine and Airports Council International have ranked Melbourne in the top ten every year from 1996 to 2000[75][77] and in the top five for airports that handle between 15 and 25 million passengers.[78][79]
    The airport has received recognition in other areas. It has won national and state tourism awards,[10][11] and Singapore Airlines presented the airport with the Service Partner Award and Premier Business Partner Award in 2002 and 2004, respectively.[75][80] In 2006, the airport won the Australian Construction Achievement Award for the runway widening project, dubbed “the most outstanding example of construction excellence for 2006″.[81]

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:43 pm

  16. victoria
    Thanks for that.
    I remember it took a long time for any flight to come directly to Melbourne from overseas. I think the planners need to think laterally with some of these problems.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:44 pm

  17. Spent 15 minutes today talking to one of my suppliers, a CNC engineer.

    In the past year or so he has sold off most of his machines and laid off all but one of his staff. It’s just him and one other bloke now.

    I had rung to ask him about doing an urgent job for me, but he said that with his reduced capacity he was fully booked, until July 1, when he was officially going out of business.

    I told him that was a shame, as he did good work, and asked him why he’s shutting up shop.

    "Ask your friend Julia Gillard why," he replied.

    "How do you mean?"

    "Carbon Tax, mate. It's sending me broke."

    I said, "But wait on, you've already been scaling down for a year. There hasn't BEEN any carbon tax."

    "Sure, sure... but it's coming. It'll be the last nail in the coffin. My monthly electricity bill is going up from $4,000 a month to $6,500."

    "$2,500 extra sounds a lot. That's a 63% increase. I don't believe it. Are you sure that's all down to the Carbon Tax?"

    "Yep, the lot."

    "Oh, come on... what's you carbon tonnage per month?"

    "I dunno."

    "Then how can you work out what you extra costs from the Carbon Tax will be?"

    "There's a web site."

    "WHICH web site?"

    "Some web site that works it all for you."

    "Based on what? Current prices"

    "Something like that. I can't remember."

    "Price sounds wrong. Tonnage is the factor you should be using. Is it the Federal government web site? Or the State government web site?"

    "Nah, a private one."

    "Run by who?"

    "Some anti-Carbon Tax group."

    "And you BELIEVE them? You'd shut down your business based on what an anti-Carbon Tax web site says?"

    "Well, it's not rocket science."

    "Hey mate, if you don't know your tonnage, then you can't figure the price increase out. Period. Get your tonnage and multiply by $23, if you want a rough guide."

    "I'm too busy to do that."

    "Well, if you're too busy to figure out exactly what the costs that you say will force you to close your business will be, then I can't help you. A 63% increase is WAY too high."

    "So YOU say."

    "It's pretty simple maths. And, by the way, where would you be if the government hadn't propped up GMH? You'd have even ORE competition, wouldn't you?"

    "Uhm... yeah."

    "Well, that was a Gillard initiative. The Libs want to can GMH."

    "True".

    "So, that's a help to you, isn't it? Keeping GMH going?"

    "If you like Communism."

    "Communism? forgive me, but that's idiotic. It's your business that we're talking about. Are you saying GMH are commies too?"

    "Birds of a feather..."

    "Hey... if I look up what your price increase will be, will you listen to me?"

    "Hmmm... OK."

    "OK, I'll do it."

    Sheesh….

    by Bushfire Bill on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:45 pm

  18. Bushfire

    Well, thank you very much Tony Abbott. Your scare campaign is working.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:47 pm

  19. I only wish that people like Centre could understand and appreciate it too. That is why I said from where I sit, the angst against the Melbourne Storm is just petty jealousy. Nothing more and nothing less.

    You are a very norty girl Victoria. I have told you explicitly and clearly for the reasons WHY the Melbourne Storm are not liked by Sydney supporters.

    It has NOTHING to do with your wishful thinking of petty jealousy to compfort your own acceptance of the Melbourne Storm.

    When you are prepared to provide me an answer to the equivalent scenario of;

    1) Richmond ordered to merge with Western Bulldogs,

    2) Hawthorn ordered to merge with North Melbourne,

    3) St.Kilda ordered to merge with Geelong,

    4) your beloved Carlton (equivalent or our South Sydney) expelled from the competition,

    whether THEN you would be willing to accept the West Sydney Giants?

    We BOTH know the Giants would be utterly detested in Melbourne given the above scenario.

    That’s why the Melbourne Storm are not liked! Face it, accept it, it’s the TRUTH!

    If you want to continue to be so stubborn and ignore the real life factual events of the dirty creation of the Melbourne Storm, then suit yourself!

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:50 pm

  20. BB

    If this man is an engineer, surely he has some knowledge of science and/or mathematics.

    Sounds like a piss poor excuse for bad management and/or unable to compete with the market

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:50 pm

  21. Centre

    If i have not already said it, I am happy to agree to disagree.

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:51 pm

  22. Essential Better PM: Julia Gillard 38 (-2), Tony Abbott 36 (-1)
    5 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  23. Info re nomines for BB’s senate position and others who will not be contesting his soon to be vacant seat:
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/light_green_lines_up_for_senate_RAgfxwqKF9VBtaqKdYnMhK

    A former equity capital markets salesman turned winemaker has nominated to replace Bob Brown in the Senate with a plan to be a different sort of Green.

    Peg Putt, a former leader of the Tasmanian Greens who works for environmental investigative body Markets For Change, is understood to have ruled herself out of contesting the Senate spot. Ms Putt was not available for comment yesterday.

    Paul Gilding, a former Greenpeace International chief executive who now lives in southern Tasmania, also dismissed speculation he would contest the position, saying he was not a member of any political party.

    It is understood the Greens will announce as early as today a process to replace Senator Brown.

    by Pegasus on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:53 pm

  24. Latest #Essential Preferred PM: Gillard 38 (-2) Abbott 36 (-1) #auspol – Menzies House must be tearing its hair out over this

    by The Finnigans on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:53 pm

  25. Agreed :cool:

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:53 pm

  26. #4366
    Offer to take his ailing business off his hands!
    And for you vertical integration.

    by Dr John on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:54 pm

  27. Wow. BB. How stupid is that. Let’s hear the result please.

    My SIL runs a manufacturing joint (steel fabrications) and he had it worked out in a flash. Said it’s not going to kill him so he’ll just get on with it.

    Might add that SIL has no engineering degree (just High School til 15 then apprenticeship) and now employs 26 people and is flat out with work because he provides good quality and service.

    He thinks Abbott is ‘a mug’ over many things and particularly the NBN which will help him with his uploads very soon. Lucky sod.

    by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  28. The Finnigans

    As far as I can tell, it is a pox on both leaders. It is definitely a race to the bottom

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  29. A gold BISON – #Essential Poll The #NBN: Support 57 (+1) Oppose 22 (-3) #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  30. Acquirre @ 4299

    And you’re right about that too. Labor’s response to it was appalling, more concerned with preserving electoral support than protesting what was a disgusting act. I was angry with them at the time.

    Appreciate the moral issues involved but I understand that ALP polling showed that if Beazley had not moved at least part-way to the Howard position the 2001 election result would have been significantly worse than 1975 with Labor potentially out of power for a generation. The Greens only need to get around 10% to be successful – Labor faces a much tougher hurdle.

    by CO on Apr 16, 2012 at 1:59 pm

  31. Centre

    By the way, you omit one thing in your argument. Melbourne Storm did not order any mergers, it was the league whom you support. Why the angst against a club??

    Anyhow, just saying…..

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:00 pm

  32. Pegasus
    I hope they choose the winemaker.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:00 pm

  33. You have to wonder about the interest or intelligence of the electorate where the NBN holds strong support yet Abbott, who wishes to roll it back, leads by miles in the polls?

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  34. Pollytics Funny Essential Report result - 34% of Coalition voters say they won't sign up with the NBN. The net will become a much nicer place anyhoo
    3 minutes ago

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  35. Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    Funny Essential Report result - 34% of Coalition voters say they won't sign up with the NBN. The net will become a much nicer place anyhoo

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  36. lizzie

    Snap

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:02 pm

  37. BH @ 4376

    particularly the NBN which will help him with his uploads very soon

    I can see how quick transmission of complex specifications and engineering diagrams could be a boon for him.

    by CTar1 on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:03 pm

  38. Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    Funny Essential Report result - 34% of Coalition voters say they won't sign up with the NBN. The net will become a much nicer place anyhoo

    That’s the lot that still hanker for Howard and the 50s so let them be and the rest of us will just get on with taking the opportunities the 21st century presents.

    by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:04 pm

  39. As I’ve said before, if both leaders are as popular as dog shite on a shoe then whether you vote for one or the other has to come down to other factors. Now, let’s see what’s left? How about policy? That’s where Tone could very well be in trouble.

    by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:04 pm

  40. victoria
    :)

    I’m glad I’m in an area that won’t be first off the blocks for the NBN, because I’ll be able to learn from others’ experience, and all the hiccups should be ironed out by then – such as rationalisation of all the different offers.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:04 pm

  41. There will be plenty of whining regardless of whom the the Greens select.

    by Greensborough Growler on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:06 pm

  42. lizzie

    I have optus cable broadband, and it is more than adquate for me. When eventually the NBN rolls around, I will take it up. I remember starting with dial up, and was always happy to progress.

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:06 pm

  43. I can see how quick transmission of complex specifications and engineering diagrams could be a boon for him.

    CTar! – it will be. When we stay overnight with them we often find both SIL and our daughter trying to get the drawings and stuff through at 2-3am. NBN will go through by the end of this year for them so efficiency levels will rise for them.

    by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:06 pm

  44. Gary

    That is why I continue to remain optimistic.

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:08 pm

  45. victoria

    When I was working from home, dial-up was a bastard, and I was thrilled to be offered broadband when it arrived. But now I’m not uploading large files, it’s not so crucial. So I’m happy as I am atm.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:08 pm

  46. lizzie

    Fair enough. I am confident that the NBN will be cost competitive.

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:09 pm

  47. Centre @ 4382

    You have to wonder about the interest or intelligence of the electorate where the NBN holds strong support yet Abbott, who wishes to roll it back, leads by miles in the polls?

    Dare I suggest that a large part of the answer lies in the relative approval ratings?

    That takes the mystery out of it, but with most on PB it is the elephant in the room which is not acknowledged.

    by bemused on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:10 pm

  48. No Victoria, the Melbourne Storm are owned by News Limited and were given to John Ribot for his efforts in establishing Super League.

    News Ltd demanded a reduction in teams to enable them to gain 50% control of the game. They insisted on 7 Super League teams and 7 ARL teams.

    If Ribot and Murdoch were never born, we would liked the Storm as much as you guys like the Swans.

    I have genuinely provided you with a precise scenario – had it of happened in the AFL!

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:11 pm

  49. BB above. So the supplier you were talking – his company is one of the top 500 emitters?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:12 pm

  50. gordongraham Tony proposes an interesting idea for the ALP

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/test-green-alliance-with-business-tax-cut-push-abbott-urges-labor/story-fn59niix-1226327832990

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:12 pm

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