Crikey



Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. The Finnigans

    A gold BISON – #Essential Poll The #NBN: Support 57 (+1) Oppose 22 (-3) #auspol

    The nation is ever so lucky that we have an opposition leader of such vision that he appointed someone specifically to “destroy the NBN”.

    by poroti on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:12 pm

  2. The nation is ever so lucky that we have an opposition leader of such vision that he appointed someone specifically to “destroy the NBN”.

    Poroti

    @GenGusface Gussie, poor Malcolm, he must have nightmare of becoming Costello Mark 2

    by The Finnigans on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:14 pm

  3. victoria

    Obviously Abbott can’t let go of his dream of “no confidence” bringing down the govt.

    by lizzie on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:17 pm

  4. Qld is the key for ALP at the next election. Gillard et al need to be up here winning Qlders over. I know she has been here a lot already; but more is needed.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:17 pm

  5. Julia will not only need to campaign in QLD but a lot in NSW as well.

    The Daily Disease has been relentless in its mud throwing at the government since the last election.

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:20 pm

  6. Having a change of leadership from Brown to Milne now is a good electoral strategy imo.

    The Greens might suffer a drop in their vote initially but over time I expect it to trend upwards.

    Already, Milne is cutting through in her media interviews and her focus on economic issues is definitely the way to go, something I have wanted for some time from the Greens.

    Milne is intelligent, articulate, principled, tough and and a negotiater. She has a collaborative approach and has signalled that she wants the entire parliamentarian Greens team to have a higher profile.

    With the change of leadership it will be more difficult for detractors to continue the meme that the Greens are a one-issue party, or solely an environmental party.

    by Pegasus on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:21 pm

  7. This from Essentials is interesting. A sort of suor grapes reaction ?
    .
    Those expecting NBN in the next 3 years 79% For 12% Against.
    Those not expecting in next 3 years. 51% For 35%

    by poroti on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:23 pm

  8. William,

    Umm, Am I losing it, or does the Essential primary number normally not add up to 100%?

    Last week, they must have rounded up Lib numbers bc the primaries add up to 101%

    This week, with Labor, Green & others staying the same, and the coalition dropping 2 points, it adds up to 99%

    So are they rounding everyone down this week?

    by jenauthor on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:25 pm

  9. The reality of governing hits Can Do.

    Matt Wordsworth ‏ @mattwordsworth Like NSW govt did after 2011 election. Campbell Newman is pushing budget back to Sept. Says it gives time to find more savings #qldpols

    I said earlier on PB that there was zero chance of Can Do being able to deliver a budget by May/June.

    I don’t know why he said he would.

    by bluegreen on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:26 pm

  10. Matt Wordsworth ‏ @mattwordsworth Like NSW govt did after 2011 election. Campbell Newman is pushing budget back to Sept. Says it gives time to find more savings #qldpols

    Got to give Costello time to ease himself out of the hammock.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:33 pm

  11. Victoria

    Essential Better PM: Julia Gillard 38 (-2), Tony Abbott 36 (-1)
    5 minutes ago

    And 16% of “LABOR” voters don’t know who would make the better PM!?
    these polls are USELESS or some people have no brains are ignorant or clueless!.

    by 1934pc on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:34 pm

  12. 1934pc

    Reality is stupid people vote!

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:35 pm

  13. bluegreen @ 4408

    I said earlier on PB that there was zero chance of Can Do being able to deliver a budget by May/June.

    I don’t know why he said he would.

    Stupidity springs to mind. :evil:

    by bemused on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:35 pm

  14. BW@4288:

    Don wrote:

    You have confused going to war with the recording of our history.

    BW wrote:

    This is what the war memorial does, systemically. It takes participation in our various wars for granted rather than providing an opportunity for visitors to have the opportunity to think about whether we should have gone to our very many wars in the first place. This is not history, it is the bastardisation of history.

    What utter nonsense.

    BW, you are a fine writer, but in this case you are off the planet.

    Don

    The AWM describes the wars, and it does it well.

    It is not there for your political or emotional agenda. It is a place where participants, their families, descendants, and the general public can gain an insight into what wars were like, and it does a superb job.

    Of course there is no smell of shit or burning flesh. How ridiculous.

    There are several issues intertwined here. (Thank you for your comment on my writing and may I say that I enjoy your posts as well.)

    The AWM does, as you say, describe wars. But what is a war? Is the decision to go to war part of the war? Is the rationale for going to war, or not going to war, part of a war? Is any civilian opposition to going to war part of the war? Is any anti-war movement during a war part of a war? Is the ongoing damage to individuals, physical and psychological, part of the war? Are tears of grief, some shed decades later, part of the war?

    I put it to you that the answer to all these questions is, ‘Yes’. The AWM does the fighting part of the war. It does tactics. It does strategy. It does the machinery of war – planes and boats. It does some aspects of the human dimension of war. But it systemically leaves out much of what is really important about wars. In doing so, it misrepresents our wars.

    My point about the really nasty bits of war relate to the issue of whether the AWM glorifies war. Your response to that was ‘Ridiculous’. I put it to you that leaving in the glorious bits and systematically deleting the nasty bits is glorifying war. Take the obverse. Suppose there were no planes, not tanks, no bits of ships in the AWM. Suppose there were no dioramas, no old uniforms, no bits of guns and grenades. Suppose there was no Victoria Cross hall. Suppose there was no pool of remembrance and no list of those who died. Suppose instead, that there were heaps of steaming entrails, bloated corpses, burning flesh. Suppose the lists on the walls consisted of women raped, of Australian war criminals, of drunken deserters at Singapore or panicked participants in the Adelaide River Handicap. People would rightly say, that is the opposite of glorifying war.

    Either way – the current approach to leaving in the glorious bits and excluding the inglorious bits is not history. It is the bastardisation of history. As would doing the reverse. Bastardising history is no way to provide insights. Instead, it channels insights in a certain way.

    Is it any wonder that Australia is so often and for so long at war?

    Fund and set up your own war museum if you have an agenda like that. The AWM is there for the rest of us.

    I could set up an abbatoir and call it the ‘real’ AWM. ‘The butcher’s bill’ was used during the Napoleonic Wars. The phrase ‘meat grinder’ is actually a WW2 phrase used for a certain approach to tactics and strategy. But why should I do that?

    The AWM is as much mine as it is your’s or anyone else’s. As an Australian citizen and as a taxpayer, and as the grandparent of potential cannon foddeer, I have as much right to comment on what it does and how it does it as you do.

    The AWM is a political, not a historical insitution. As usual, once you let the politics of war into the shrine function, the historical function is perverted.

    I suggest that your comments once again demonstrate a quite basic point about the AWM: having a curated war history in the same building as a shrine of remembrance has the potential to ruin both functions.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:36 pm

  15. Newman is a big promiser. Loves to build and spend money. The mayoral candidate Ray Smith has been hitting the Council debt issue often. Whether it resounds, we shall see in 2 weeks. I do know that Council has laid off 800 people in the last 2 years because of Newman’s debt.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:38 pm

  16. Bloomberg Businessweek has a good article on how huge companies are shying away from membership of a partisan group.

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-13/why-are-mcdonalds-coca-cola-and-intuit-fleeing-alec

    Coca Cola, McDonalds and Intuit (a personal financial software maker) have quit membership of The American Legislative Exchange Council which describes itself as a nonpartisan champion of free markets, but in reality is a politically partisan lobby group. The companies’ motivation is the embarrassment of being seen to be associated with a group which claims to support free markets but in reality lobbies for legislation to protect its member companies.

    This US group sounds awfully like the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA).

    by citizen on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:41 pm

  17. You have to wonder about the interest or intelligence of the electorate where the NBN holds strong support yet Abbott, who wishes to roll it back, leads by miles in the polls?

    I don’t think anyone is really paying much attention to anything apart from ‘the lie’. I also don’t think it will change much after July when the sky doesn’t fall in, they’ll just keep focusing on ‘the lie’.

    IMO Labor has to explain why it’s not a tax. And then explain it again and again and again and …

    by Son of foro on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:43 pm

  18. New (non-political post) at The Daily Derp

    The Poorest Band In The World

    Despite having five members, Walk On the Earth can only afford one guitar, and have to share it between them.

    by Dan Gulberry on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:46 pm

  19. Courtesy of Possum.

    Great obituary

    http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/flathead-obit.png

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  20. 1934pc
    Posted Monday, April 16, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    Victoria

    Essential Better PM: Julia Gillard 38 (-2), Tony Abbott 36 (-1)
    5 minutes ago

    And 16% of “LABOR” voters don’t know who would make the better PM!?
    these polls are USELESS or some people have no brains are ignorant or clueless!.

    Judging by the old wounds war last night, a fair proportion of that 16% might by Ruddites. So possibly the answer intended is “neither of the above”.

    If faced with the actual voting ultimatum, I’d expect they’d go for Labor JG rather than Abbott.

    The overall Essential seems to be edging back to normal after the pro-coalition blip with Can-do’s triumph.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:48 pm

  21. http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/04/16/budget-watch-beastie-boys-aside-we-know-heaps-about-the-surplus-search/

    Monday, 16 April 2012
    Budget watch: Beastie Boys aside, we know heaps about the surplus search
    by Andrew Crook

    In just over three weeks, Crikey will again bunker down for five hours in Parliament House’s bowels to get harassed by junior Treasury officials during the annual ritual that is the budget lock-up.

    Early indications suggest that despite years of bans under Peter Costello, our crack team comprising dumped AFR op-ed hero John Quiggin, First Dog on the Moon, Bernard and this alleged reporter will be given the green light to cast an eye over hundreds of pages of budget papers as trays of dubious sandwiches turn to cardboard.

    ..........................

    So, with most of the big announcements set to be strategically leaked from anonymous Hotmail accounts by experienced message masseuses John McTernan and Sean Kelly, what do we know so far?

    Quite a bit, surprisingly …

    http://www.hawkerbritton.com/hawker-britton-media/publications/516/how-the-independents-have-voted-in-the-house.htm

    How The Independents Have Voted In The House
    12th April 2012

    To access the latest version of 'How the Independents have voted in the House,' Hawker Britton's analysis of the Independents' voting records, click here.

    A table showing all the divisions in the House of Representatives from 29 September 2010 to 22 March 2012, with a brief description of the legislation or motion, number of pairs and how each independent voted is available here. Pairs are agreed to by party whips on each day of voting.

    Biographies of each of the House of Representatives crossbenchers are available here.

    For more Hawker Britton Occasional Papers, click here.

    by Leroy on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:48 pm

  22. Pegasus

    Ms Milne’s declaration of war and her guerre a l’outrance against the mining industry seems a bit over the top: I do hope she does not use any metals in her daily life. Cos, if she does, some would say she is a collaborator, a fifth columnist, a quisling or even a running dog.*

    BTW, there is plenty of military stuff permeating that little effort.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:49 pm

  23. With Bob Brown as leader, there was a gentleness pragmatic sense about him where even though he’s in a different political party, he’s not going to make a scene for the hell of it.

    With Christine Milne as leader, I feel quite uneasy about the ALP being in alliance with the Greens as I feel she’s going to rock the boat and get into the partisan left/right shitfights with Abbott who will inevitably win it as he enjoys dealing with this sort of thing.

    The ALP needs to think about things very carefully over the next few months

    by spur212 on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:50 pm

  24. The thing that really scares me is if the electorate starts to perceive Abbott as centrist from these attacks by Milne due to the ALP’s alliance with the Greens

    by spur212 on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:55 pm

  25. DG

    Absolutely fabulous! I love this cover and especially how they use the one guitar! Amazing indeed.

    This may be of interest to you. goyte attended the same catholic boys secondary school as Andrew Robb. i know this because, the school is in my area. Go figure!!!

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:55 pm

  26. spur212

    This change of leadership to Milne has really got you worried!!!

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:56 pm

  27. In the 43rd Parliament so far, the Government has successfully passed 301 pieces of legislation through the Lower House.

    h­ttp://www.hawkerbritton.com/images/data/How%20the%20Independents%20have%20voted%20in%20the%20House%20%28April%202012%29.pdf

    Not quite true: 1 was Luke Hartsuyker’s, I Oakeshott, 1 Brown, 1 Bandt, 1 Wilke, 296 government.

    by This little black duck on Apr 16, 2012 at 2:59 pm

  28. s212

    I read an article this morning, I forget where, about Ms Milne. In the article the journo whose name I have forgotten, said that Ms Milne does not believe in the usefulness of the left-right paradigm to explain anything really worthwhile in today’s politics.

    Essentially, she holds the view that with overpopulation all major elements of the environment – biosphere as well as resources – are going down the tubes.

    The world is therefore best understood as a struggle between those who understand that there has to be a paradigm shift to prevent the big down-the-tubes event and those who are headed determinedly towards the down-the-tubes event.

    If it is not prevented, then governments will be consigned to trying to manage the consequences.

    Ms Milne basically believes that very urgent action is required to prevent an irreversible change to a temporary anomoly of +4 degrees. She is also, rightly, sceptical that current systems of governance will respond in time.

    So, perhaps what should really concern both Labor and Liberals is not whether Ms Milne proves politically obdurate?

    Instead, what should concern them is whether her understanding of AGW is more alert and more scientifically accurate than theirs’ is. Because, if Ms Milne is correct, then any victory that Labor and/or the Liberals have over the Greens will by a phyrric victory.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:01 pm

  29. Umm, Am I losing it, or does the Essential primary number normally not add up to 100%?

    Last week, they must have rounded up Lib numbers bc the primaries add up to 101%

    This week, with Labor, Green & others staying the same, and the coalition dropping 2 points, it adds up to 99%

    So are they rounding everyone down this week?

    If you round percentage results to whole numbers, they will very often not add up to 100. Say you’ve got Labor on 31.2%, Coalition on 48.4% and others on 20.4%. That adds up to 100. But if you round that to whole numbers, you get 31%, 48% and 20%, which only adds up to 99. Newspoll’s numbers always add up to 100, but they get there by cheating, presumably to avoid being asked that question.

    by William Bowe on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:02 pm

  30. Can anyone tell me why KFC JOE went to London ? @ Tax payers expense . Did they open another store ??

    by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:05 pm

  31. ‘temporary’ = ‘temperature’.

    Ironically it is, more likely than not on the basis of the current science and the approach of governments around the world, to be a pass-through event: ergo, temporary.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:05 pm

  32. Wow. BB. How stupid is that. Let’s hear the result please.

    The guy I’m talking about has an engineering firm – metalworking, turning etc. – that uses CNC (Computer Numeric Control) lathes and mills to make precision product. I use him for my optical business, which requires high precision mechanicals.

    I supply 3D drawings (un-dimensioned…. wonderful!) and he transliterates them to his machine tool software, then turns out the parts for me of his CNC machinery (up to 7-axis machines). They have been perfectly in conformance to my designs (for better or worse).

    He hit hard times… because I suspect he’s a bit too cocky with his customers (won’t go into details) and is also a natural whinger about everything: The Bloody Chinese, The Bloody Government, The Bloody Metal Suppliers, and now The Bloody Carbon Tax.

    I can understand some of his complaints, but many of them I don’t agree with. I think he just likes whingeing.

    He has also over-leveraged himself.

    In short, his mouth, his lease and his rent costs were too big for his capacity to earn income. One hour’s downtime on a half-million dollar machine cost him $300, he told me. In the end he had too much downtime.

    A lot of it is his own fault as he was somewhat arrogant to his customers (especially ones like me who paid deposits up-front and in full on completion). When the work was finished my patronage didn’t earn me any favours at all. Not one. I was just another mug once the work was completed. Work was great… his attitude was all wrong.

    Anyway, he’s now down to himself and one assistant, from 10 toolmakers, an office girl and an apprentice.

    Carbon Tax Calculators
    I looked for his famous Carbon Tax calculator and found three:

    1. The government one, which is keen to add in compensation as well as charge Carbon Tax. It’s mostly for households, so pretty useless for small business.

    This was also found in several newspaper sites. It appears to be “portable”. You can use the calculator and put your own logo on it.

    2. The IPA version (IPA = yes, Institute of Public Affairs),

    http://www.carbontaxcalc.com/

    which seems to charge $28/tonne for the Carbon Tax, not $23/tonne. It gives no assumptions and no information about how its calculator works except

    Note: The output provided by the carbon tax calculator is a guide based on publicly available industry data and your current electricity bill.

    Further information about the Institute of Public Affair's climate change policy is available here.

    So, dodgy to me… a typical IPA smokescreen if it doesn’t provide the formula. This was the most obscure calculator.

    3. This one from Energy Action,

    http://carbontax.apphb.com/

    which DOES charge at $23/tonne. In NSW based on .89 kilograms of carbon per kilowatt-hour, that means 1,123 kilowatt-hours per tonne. So I plugged this amount in as a yearly usage and got $22.99 as my Carbon Tax…. QED.

    This web site gives a much fuller listing of its assumptions. The bottom line appears to be that the electricity companies will charge at $23 per tonne, but that this will vary from state to state.

    State To State
    Interestingly, the prices varied by A LOT depending on your state.

    For 1,123 kilowatt hours of electricity the prices were (with % of NSW cost in brackets after):

    NSW > $22.99 (100%)
    VIC > $31.25 (136%)
    SA > $17.56 (76%)
    TAS > $7.75 (34%… presumably due to the proliferation of hydroelectric power)
    QLD > $22.73 (99%)
    WA > $20.66 (90%)
    NT > $17.31 (75%)
    ACT > $22.99 (100%).

    So Tassie’s the cheapest because they’re already pretty carbon-free in their electricity production, bugger all actually at $7.75 per tonne of carbon, and Victoria’s the worst, because they rely on brown coal for their power. I was surprised at the NT’s cheapness, but I guess they use a lot of locally obtained natural or LP gas up there.

    My personal bill, based on actuals, would be increased by $210.84 per year, or around $0.58c per day. For every kilowatt hour I reduce my electricity by, I save $0.02c in Carbon Tax.

    I really can’t see this breaking anyone’s back, but then I’ve never been someone who worries about the last cent (probably why I’m poor!).

    I haven’t got my metalworker’s figures yet, but I suspect he’s gone to the IPA (or similar) site, used the default amount of 10,000 kilowatt hours and then taken his “$2,500″ figure as a monthly increase, rather than a yearly one.

    I really must give him a call about this. I’d hate to see him completely shut up his business based on a simple mistake attributable to his propensity to whinge about ANYTHING the government does.

    True, he WANTED to hear bad news about the Carbon Tax and the IPA gave it to him, but this is clearly not good enough from a supposedly (in their own estimation) “reputable”" organization.

    … more to come later…

    by Bushfire Bill on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:06 pm

  33. victoria

    It’s the polarisation that worries me and the fact that Abbott could come out looking moderate because of it

    Boerwar

    More interested in what is rather achievable rather than policy purity. As Gough Whitlam used to say “none are as pure as the impotent.” … An Abbott government would be less inclined to do anything about anything than the ALP who are prepared to negotiate and compromise to get things done

    by spur212 on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:06 pm

  34. vic

    That is interesting. Perhaps they can only afford one guitar because Robb is their business manager :lol:

    by Dan Gulberry on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:08 pm

  35. DG

    Just to clarify. The band did not attend the same school as Andrew Robb, Goyte did. I have no idea who this band is but they are very talented

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:09 pm

  36. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Can anyone tell me why KFC JOE went to London ?

    Comparing notes ?

    Exclusive: Clegg's drive to recruit 65,000 state nannies

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-cleggs-drive-to-recruit-65000-state-nannies-7645973.html?origin=internalSearch

    by poroti on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:09 pm

  37. Ta William — thought it must have been something like that, just seemed odd – week to week – that only one change (-2% Libs) made no difference elsewhere.

    So long as 2PP changes accordingly, I suppose …..

    by jenauthor on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  38. DG

    goyte being the singer of the orignal song.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UVNT4wvIGY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

    by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:11 pm

  39. s212

    Boerwar

    More interested in what is rather achievable rather than policy purity. As Gough Whitlam used to say “none are as pure as the impotent.” … An Abbott government would be less inclined to do anything about anything than the ALP who are prepared to negotiate and compromise to get things done

    Ah. This was coverd in the article as well. Ms Milne’s problem with your ‘achievable’, if I have understood things correctly, is that ‘incrementalism’ is not going to cut it in time.

    The thinking would be something like this: The world (including Australia) needs to decarbonise substantially by about 2050 if we are to avoid an average global temperature anomoly of plus 4 degrees by about 2090. Something like that.

    Incremental, small step at a time, compromise changes over a lengthy period of time is bad policy in this case. This is because what is needed is a humungous step. Now.

    If you say that that is impossible politically, then you would agree broadly with Ms Milne who is also rather concerned that the systems of governance can’t respond in time.

    If true, you had better start thinking seriously about how Australia is going to prepare for a cooked planet and acid seas.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:14 pm

  40. centre@4382:

    You have to wonder about the interest or intelligence of the electorate where the NBN holds strong support yet Abbott, who wishes to roll it back, leads by miles in the polls?

    Just think how dumb the average punter is.

    Now remember that half the population is dumber than that.

    :grin:

    by don on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  41. TONY Abbott has urged Labor to test its alliance with the Greens by making its business tax cut push a matter of confidence.

    Hey Tony you can call on a motion of no confidence whenever you like. Why do you always want someone else to do your job for you? Lazy bugger. :P

    by ruawake on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:18 pm

  42. Bushfire

    Tell your supplier it will cost him about $33/month for each large machine he runs for 8 hours – assuming 3 phase at 20 Amps – fairly typical.

    by daretotread on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:19 pm

  43. BH@4387:

    Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    Funny Essential Report result – 34% of Coalition voters say they won’t sign up with the NBN. The net will become a much nicer place anyhoo

    That’s the lot that still hanker for Howard and the 50s so let them be and the rest of us will just get on with taking the opportunities the 21st century presents.

    I hate to say this, but it is pretty much the oldies. And I’m north of that state myself.

    So many of my contemporaries and older simply don’t use email or the net, it is scary.

    Never mind, they are dying like flies.

    But not me, not yet.

    :wink: :cool:

    by don on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:22 pm

  44. BB

    My figures assume 1.058 kg/KWH (which is the figure used in Qld but not sure about NSW)

    by daretotread on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:22 pm

  45. Boerwar

    There’s what’s perfect and there’s what’s achievable. You’re never going to get a perfect anything because of the fragmentation of society. Milne wants everyone to be like her. In order to get things done, you need to take people with you.

    Conservatives and the mainstream right understand this extremely well and take full advantage of it.

    by spur212 on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:23 pm

  46. Victoria,

    ” Melbourne Storm did not order any merger”

    I think you will find they did, via their 100% owners, News Ltd. You had to be in Sydney at the time to realise how vocal their nominal owner, John Ribot, was about removing the “deadwood” as he so charmingly put it. At the time, there were five original clubs left – Norths, Souths, Easts, Wests and Balmain. Only Easts were untouched (ref Jamie Packer) and Souths fought to get back in. Norths will one day re-emerge as the Central Coast Bears but the other two are in the dustbin of history.
    Why don’t you answer Centre’s very reasonable question? How would Melburnians feel about 80% of their foundation clubs destroyed to accommodate the wishes of Rupert Murdoch, who now controls 25% of the clubs? I doubt they would be very happy.
    No one is saying Melbourne Storm aren’t a great side. They are. But they lied and cheated to win premierships while receiving over a hundred million (yes, $100,000,000) of special funding from Rupert.
    You apparently have no trouble getting angry about Murdoch’s political interference. Just because his favourite toy is located in Melbourne doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be angry about how he operates.

    PS. He really wanted the AFL. If he had got his way there, there would be no Footscray, St Kilda, North Melbourne and probably Richmond. They too would have been sacrificed at the altar of his “vision”.

    by Roy Orbison on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:25 pm

  47. Newspoll’s numbers always add up to 100, but they get there by cheating,

    Do Tell?? Newspoll, Cheat! I’m amazed! I thought they just spun the results wildly!!

    by imacca on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:26 pm

  48. Don it’s a worry. Step 1, I reckon they should never let kids out of high school unless they know how to vote ;)

    Have you guys heard the latest policy from the Greens? It’s hysterical!

    Christine Milne wants Kingsford-Smith Airport closed down :lol:

    What a mess Labor are in at the moment because of the loony Greens! It doesn’t stop, now Milne doesn’t want the budget returned to surplus.

    She really does want the bestest friend the environment ever had in government. Don’t worry Christine, the :mrgreen: will fix you!

    by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  49. William@4428:

    Newspoll’s numbers always add up to 100, but they get there by cheating, presumably to avoid being asked that question.

    Thanks very much, I never knew that!

    Hmmmm, gives the opportunity for a little bias, one would think, only by one %, but that might be appreciated by whoever they decide to help…..

    by don on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:30 pm

  50. s212

    There’s what’s perfect and there’s what’s achievable.

    In an imperfect world, a truism. But truism can hide the really nasty truth.

    Ms Milne is merely pointing out what the scientists are telling us. The difference between Ms Milne and Mr Abbott, for example, is that Ms Milne is actually listening to the scientists.

    People are, as you rightly imply, sitting around waiting, waiting, waiting… for someone to take them with them. It will probably not be Ms Milne, as you also imply.

    It certainly won’t be Ms Gillard or Mr Abbott. Nor any of most (say at least 175 our of 200) of the prime ministers, presidents and what-nots who head several hundred national governments around the world.

    So the clear implication is that what is going to ‘…take people with them…’ is global warming.

    by Boerwar on Apr 16, 2012 at 3:30 pm

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