Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Yes it is MM. Shows where the real brains are in the House.
by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:46 pm
It appears that the ALP latest catch phrase c/o Shorten is no longer ‘working families’ it is now ‘families and small businesses’
by bluegreen on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:46 pm
hey Centre:
I am happy to put a long range prediction out there.
Poll result prediciton: BAD for the ALP
Poll result prediction duration: Medium to Long term
…lets see whether I am right!
by Mod Lib on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Finns #4994, just imagine if the unlicensed driver had also (or even instead) been caught “driving while appearing to be Aboriginal” , or, in Sydney “while appearing to be Lebanese”
How could the Murdoch press have gone missing in action on this one? oh yes of course – silly me.
A song for 2GB and the Daily Tele, courtesy of Mr Bruce Cockburn, is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7vCww3j2-w
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Rummel, in WA that carries a prison sentence for a second offence, if the licence is under suspension.
Is this man that stupid?
by Fulvio Sammut on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:49 pm
No. He was a Senior Counsel of the Supreme Court of Queensland (a fancy barrister).
Despite popular opinion, he’s a very sharp legal mind but will fashion his opinion to suit his political objective.
by drake on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Of course you’d be happy to predict such a result. You’re a Lib.
by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Gary:
Nothing to stop you recording your long range prediction too…
by Mod Lib on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Fulvio Sammut
Yes, is it that hard to make sure your have ticked all the boxes when taking up a appointment such a police minister.
by rummel on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Mod Lib, the polls are very soft at the moment. It could be more of a worry for the Liberals that Abbott’s figures are no better than Julia’s.
The electorate will listen closer to the campaign, mind you, if the polls move better for Labor in the interim, Abbott is gone!
by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
ML, you really don’t get hubris, do you?
by Fulvio Sammut on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
drake:
I see. A blowhard?
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Just got an invite to be in the Q&A audience, they will be debating Climate Change and have organised a stellar panel of eminant Climate Scientists, don’t miss it. Here are the panel of experts from their email to me:
Shame I live in Canberra and won’t be able to attend.
by HaveAchat on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Did Newspoll just cancel a poll and stay on the same fortnight pattern?
I thought they were just delaying last week’s poll by a week to coincide with the budget…
by Mod Lib on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I don’t and won’t be making predictions 18 months out from any election. I really can’t see the point.
by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Mind you Rummel, WA does have Rob Johnson as it’s police minister, a politician so idiotic even Don Randall, the prince of clown, ridicules him.
by Fulvio Sammut on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Centre – the Lib vote is NOT a soft vote. Consistent 55-45 trend is not a soft vote.
by gloryconsequence on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:56 pm
“hard vote” would be a better description, as it appears to be hard for some to come to terms with…
by Mod Lib on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Why can’t it be consistently soft? When did that rule come into being?
by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 10:59 pm
No gloryconsequence, I believe the polls are soft at the moment, soft with a consistent present reading!
by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Gary:
What are your friends and colleagues telling you about their views of this government?
by Mod Lib on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Andrew Leigh did a piece about being a HC associate available as a PDF through his link (I hope):
An analysis of the role, power and background of judges associates
by shellbell on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Fulvio Sammut
Well i hope CanDo uses a bit of Sun Tzu on his troops and takes a few heads of those who dont pro form until perfect order is installed.
by rummel on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:02 pm
When Q and A does there audience break up next week it should be in two ways.
Green supporters and the ASIO agents that are watching them.
by guytaur on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Clutching at straws Gary.
Abbott Coalition’s last 6 months of polling is rock solid.
It doesn’t mean it won’t shift at some stage.
by gloryconsequence on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:04 pm
56-44 TPP
by gloryconsequence on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Patricia@4834 – thanks for the link to the Carnarvon project. I did go looking and found the ABC piece but not much else yet. I’ll check my ALP newsletters folder to see if I missed it somewhere.
by BH on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Fess #4998
No. Brandis does have a perfectly respectable BA Hons, LLB Hons, plus an Oxford BCL (which really is a Masters, despite the B for Bachelors in the title).
But so do lots of people I used to study, or work, or drink with, or happily would do so. Including (in the last category) Malcolm Turnbull, a much better lawyer.
A PhD in law? No.
Dr HV Evatt MA LLD, he most certainly aint.
His ignorance and error in some of the basics of areas of law that should be bread and butter for a putative attorney general is really appalling. Things that would have been (and were) obvious to Ruddock (better man than he appeared to many) let alone Williams (would have been a very good HC appointment) . .
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm
GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (+1) L/NP 56 (-1) #auspol
1 minute ago
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Ghostie has delivered at last.
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:06 pm
GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 29 (+1) L/NP 48 (+1) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol
1 minute ago
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Centre. The next best lock to Ron Coote was the reserve grade lock at Souths, Paul Sait. The second best hooker to Elwyn Walters was the reserve grade hooker at Souths, George Piggins. I didn’t /don’t support Souths but the teams they had in that era of late 60s early 70s we won’t see the like of again. And they didn’t buy in established players from other clubs which is my pet hate (except for Dennis Pittard).
by Michael Cusack on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Can Do has a problem. Besides finding a new police minister. The actions of this man who kept this secret during the election campaign point to a culture in th party.
No wonder Can Do is micro managing. He knows better than to trust. His team.
by guytaur on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Garrett is making a meal out of talking childcare.
Forgetting pathos.
by bluegreen on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:07 pm
News Poll – Not that bad.
by rummel on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:07 pm
MM:
I continue to be amazed that Brandis is referred to as a moderate Liberal these days, after all his carry on.
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:07 pm
GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 39 (-1) Abbott 41 (+4) #auspol
1 minute ago
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:07 pm
didn’t look rock solid when Morgan had ALP ahead, and things also tightened when Rudd challenged and people started to engage.
Coalition will remain soft whilst ever they are led by the unpopular
by sprocket_ on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Garrett is doing a Swan
Thinking that yelling every answer is the best way to challenge the questioner.
by bluegreen on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Mod Lib,
The Gillard/Labor government is moving forward with the implementation of its policies.
At the end of the day, hopefully, the electorate will decide the merits of this government on its results.
If they do, the Liberals will spend another term in opposition. That’ why the MSM are relentless in their criticisms of Gillard.
by Centre on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:09 pm
New thread.
by William Bowe on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Looks like Abbott’s position as LOTO is safe
by victoria on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:09 pm
The +4 for Abbott?
by gloryconsequence on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:10 pm
bluegreen
Garrett has never been good. He just looks real bad after following Roxon.
by guytaur on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:10 pm
bluegreen:
what are you watching?
by confessions on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Abbott is shinning up nicely. Having christine milne on the news for three days saying everything bad is Abbotts fault would be worth at least two points.
by rummel on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Then it aint rock solid if it shifts.
by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Newspoll has done a few recent polls in which TPP has gone in the opposite direction to preferred PM
by shellbell on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Garrett needs to do sales 101
No one would ever sell anything with
“But Emma, we now have a national quality framework for childcare”
Features, Advantages, Benefits Mr Garrett. Features, Advantages, Benefits.
Seriously, who is advising these people.
by bluegreen on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Just remember rummel there isn’t an election any time soon.
by Gary on Apr 16, 2012 at 11:12 pm