Newspoll quarterly breakdown
The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
No Centre, the TAB has NEVER been a monopoly.
The TAB was only introduced in 1961 and ran concomitant with registered bookmakers.
My father was one of the biggest bookmakers in Australia and fielded in the 1940′s. I followed a lot later. Now we have registered bookmakers, TAB and numerous internet corporate bookmakers. The TAB is now privatized. Of course in addition SP was rife all through the 1900′s and hence the success of John Wren.
The Racing industry charging what it likes? – I don’t follow you. If you maybe want to talk about State governments and betting turnover tax I can help you there.
Also the matter of the recent NSW High Court decision which you are so heated about really only means that the corporates will have to pay a more equitable tax based on turnover and more going back into the industry.
No doubt Jamie Packer who owns a fair swag of corporate Betfair in Australia will be ‘disgruntled’ but he’ll survive.
by Dr John on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Guytaur
I hope so. It’s just my hunch, it’s not based on any great research or knowledge or anything.
Generally I can only take the MSM in very small doses. BB reminds me of those scientists who inject themselves with poison to see what happens.
by Son of foro on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:08 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/us/politics/obama-to-make-case-for-buffett-rule.html?_r=1&hp
by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:10 pm
I saw it with my sister. Must have been about 11 or 12. I got it straightaway. I was pleased my boys got it too.
I can still remember Mum and Dad talking in hushed tones during the Cuban Missile Crisis, not wanting me to know what was going on. There was real fear around n those days.
One of the good things about them growing up is that we don’t have to watch “all shootemups, all the time” anymore. About one in every two movies I put on are of the more serious type. If I ever have to sit through another Transformers flick I think I’ll scream.
Tonight’s movie is The Taking Of Pelham 1-2-3, the original version with Matthau and Robert Shaw. A wonderful film in every way, one of a select few that have “100%” ratings (100% popular, that is) on Rotten Tomatoes. The remake of a couple of years ago was truly awful. Woeful!
We watched an excellent ‘scope copy of Titanic on Monday. OK, so it’s over-the-top schmaltzy (yes, I read the review linked here a few days ago), but still scary when it gets to wet affairs. As a quid pro quo, they boys have agreed to watch A Night To Remember, the 1958 British version of the Titanic disaster, in most ways a superior film to Titanic. I showed them how Titanic had lifted – in some cases close to word for word – scenes from the earlier film, and that’s what got them interested in comparing.
I’m saving One Eyed Jacks (the Marlon Brando directorial opus) for next week It’s one of my personal favourites. Also The Getaway with Steve McQueen. These Easter holidays are practically a Slim Pickens festival with all this stuff screening.
Also on the agenda Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, Lawrence Of Arabia, The Charge Of The Light Brigade (David Hemmings version), Ice Cold In Alex, Guns Of Navarone and Cape Fear (the original version… the last three films being a J. Lee Thompson directing trilogy – three in a row, in fact), and if I get time Kelly’s Heroes (which they’ve seen but which we all like). Possibly also The Counterfeiters (although they get bored with having to concentrate on sub titles).
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Son of foro
Our very own 2005 Nobel Lauriate Barry Marshall drank a culture of Helicobacter pylori bacteria to show that bugs not stress causes ulcers.
by poroti on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:15 pm
guytaur, I’m sure trainers would love Gina to inject some funds into the industry. As for Gina running herself, umm she might need some assistance from the pointy end of a 747 to get her moving along.
There is absolutely NOTHING about wagering or racing or sports betting that you could ever help me with so stop playing games.
Now, let me read what else you have said at 2.06pm so I can reply to it!
by Centre on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:18 pm
I was thinking more of John Coffey in The Green Mile.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Mitt Romney losing more votes.
http://youtu.be/pCLtTj4FKQ8
by guytaur on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:20 pm
BB
I wish i could listen to THAT!
Dio,
Abolishing flexitime doesn’t save, it costs money, heaps of it. The first thing I would do in that situation is to claim every minute I spent past my 7 hours 28 minutes (or whatever it is) past my normal workload as overtime payments. As flexitime is accumulated hour for hour and not at time & half (as far as I remember), the increased costs for the department would be astronomical. They are citing people staying back doing nothing just to get a day off for nothing. If that was happening that is a supervisory issue. At that level a worker is expected to be able to be self-directed, without the need for minute by minute supervision. If they are not getting their work done despite working long days their boss needs to ask what is going on.
Flexitime was the only way I could combine working and parenting of young children with being the sole breadwinner. I deliberately chose work areas where flexitime was available, when I could.
It is not like you could just take flexitime whenever you liked either, everything had to fit into the workplace, but if a kid had a school sports carnival or a dental appointment or something and you could book the day weeks ahead and it didn’t get cancelled at the last minute due to operational requirements, it was brilliant. Mostly I used the flexible start/finish times to better fit with school-times. It doesn’t work with customer service roles, but for e.g. assessment and review of claims, it was quite good.
But with the advent of Abbott-sponsered nannies, maybe it won’t be so important anymore.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Dio @ 866
Of course it doesn’t but cracking down on the ‘wasteful lazy PS’ is always taken as that …
by CTar1 on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:24 pm
BB
Speaking of movies. Have you seen the french Candian movie CRAZY. It is a must watch. Highly recommended. It is a movie that stays with you long after you have watched it
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/crazy/
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:25 pm
{Meanwhile, Christmas Island is about as far away from WA as Vanuatu is from Queensland!
This is not media “bias” per se, but it makes it sound as though these boats are kind of landing at Cottesloe Beach.}
See, we are all under threat of invasion as these boats are in Australian territorial waters.}
Even i know where christmas island is, but do commentators
Know where tasmania , is .
Across the Tasman, asi heard on e say .
by my say on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:26 pm
My Say
“I mentioned jukia, isnt she great, she said, all the staff here love her.”
If you had substituted “Tony, isn’t he great” she would have said exactly the same thing. Trust me on this one. I’m an ex cabbie. Although only briefly, thank Christ. You are trained to give responses that people want to hear, not argue with them.
by Roy Orbison on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:26 pm
p m z
I listened to the podcast as linked earlier on. Interesting discussion.
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Bb wish u had been my grandfather, very very fortunate boys
by my say on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Roy na, sorry, tasmanians dont like tony.
A letterto the papertoda wrre gosh abnots sisieris brave, for coming out and admitting
SHE IS his relative, wtte , betu thought it was going to be so eting else,
A few weeks ago Pauline Hansen was here looking t o buy in the north
A comment in the paper said, thats ok as lo ng as abbott does not move here.
by my say on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Dr John,
1. The TAB was a full monopoly as it was the only, I repeat, the ONLY legislated authority to be able to accept bets off the course of a racetrack.
Today, the TAB is a near monopoly, but still considered a monopoly for all practical purposes, as it is the only organisation that is able to accept bets in pubs, clubs and agencies.
At present there is another court case challenging the monopoly of the TAB by a corporate bookmaker for being restricted to offer his own business in a pub that he owns.
2. The Racing industry and Racing NSW alone determined the appropriate charge for themselves of a 1.5% fee based on turnover.
There was no negotiation, and there need not be. They own their own intellectual property and can charge any amount as they see fit.
Read the High Court judgement for yourself, and next time don’t jump into a conversation to pass yourself off as knowing more than someone else unless you really know what you’re talking about!
by Centre on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:41 pm
When I was young out in the bush the only thing that moved the local bookie (and his briefcase) from his spot in the pub was word of any possible strange coppers around (not including the single local one who knew better than to interfere in such things).
But then maybe Toby wasn’t a TAB guy.
by CTar1 on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:50 pm
A who’s who at the zoo of Qld LNP donors
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/industry-giants-gave-2m-to-lnp-20120410-1wn00.html
by poroti on Apr 11, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Poroti
I found this disturbing but suppose most would just shrug their shoulders.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/industry-giants-gave-2m-to-lnp-20120410-1wn00.html#ixzz1rhlMrNVD
by Dee on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Dee
Yes, reading through the donors I thought I heard the shuffling of white shoes.
by poroti on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:05 pm
The boats are comming in think and fast at the moment. I had a great laugh at Gillard bidding bon voyage to the boat people on there way to new Zealand. This on shore detention just might work if we advertise this opportunity to pass Australian and continue onto NZ.
by rummel on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Buried away in the Thin Reviews gossip column today: Joe Hockey and Kevin Rudd having a quiet conversation over coffee in a Noosa cafe on Hastings St yesterday. Was Rua there too?
by al palster on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Who wants to go to snobby Noosa? Heck even NBN Co has the sense to avoid the place.
by ruawake on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:11 pm
by Dee on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:12 pm
rummel,
Is this you or Scott Morrison?
http://www.kudelka.com.au/2012/04/why-does-scott-morrison-hate-the-free-market-so-much/
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Puff
Senior execs do not get overtime (at least not any where I have been). OT cuts out at the lower admin level, not even coming to professional level.
Not sure how it equates but usually anyone above admin 6 does not get any OT
by daretotread on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:16 pm
GG
I shall have a look
by rummel on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:17 pm
GG not I.
I was cheering the ten on and hoping they would make it to NZ.
by rummel on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Not sure if already posted. The Kouk on interest rates
http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/more-poor-data-pragmatic-rba-will-take.html
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:20 pm
BB
At the time of the Cuban missile crisis I was still at school and we all sat around – very quiet – as we genuinely thought the US would intercept the Russian cargo ships and that the Russians would retaliate.
In those days, it all seemed so far away and the thought that we in Oz would be in any way impacted was a long way from our thinking too.
No 24 hour news cycle of course, and the TV news was only later in the day with very scratchy video.
We were all so innocent and protected from the vagaries of the “outside” world in those days.
It all seemed unreal but years down the track one can see just how real it all was!
by Tricot on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:21 pm
What a cornucopial feast of links and discussion today.
Must say I can’t understand the aggro from Centre to Dr John re betting, considering Dr John claims a fairly complete insider knowledge.
victoria
The Dutch scientists forecast of global temperature rises in 1981, from 1981, being 30% (thirty freaking percent) below current temperatures is amazing.
Pell being claimed as “not so bad after all” flies in the face of breaking Godwin’s.
i) his anecdote about “grooming” (titter titter) patriotic English boys for communion, laced with advising one little upstart who had the temerity to ask about hell, “what we do without hell for the likes of Hitler?”
ii) on Jews: claiming that the Germans had been punished unmercifully for what they’d done. Completely whitewashing Christianity’s (and Catholicism’s) 2000-year hatred/persecution of the Jews for executing Christ.
iii) SSM: claiming that the Catholic Church had done more than anybody else of this godforsaken planet to help victims of AIDS. Once again blaming pooftas for disease.
Puff saying the regressive GST should apply to everything!! Astounding. In my book, books should have been exempted too. Now we have to put up with every second protagonist lighting up a ciggie to earn income.
NBN articles: excellent. Seems like there’s finally a breakthrough regarding the benefits.
Ditto: the Carbon Price, especially the article on benefits to farmers.
rummel defending the indefensible because any little chink in the “gummint-bad” armour would open the floodgates. Gotta maintain the BS.
etc etc.
Thanks all.
by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:23 pm
rummel,
The fact that they are seeking asylum in Australia and that Gillard is home crook in bed makes the whole of your 921 a stinking piece of crap.
However, encouraging people to take to the dangerous high seas in an unseaworthy vessel with their families including children on board is just the sort of nihlistic populism one would expect from the Libs.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:25 pm
GG
Gillard is crook?
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Tricot
It’s an interesting part of history and not often mentioned that as part of agreement about the removal of Russian missiles from Cuba the US also stopped the further deployment and removed similar missiles from Turkey.
by CTar1 on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:35 pm
One of Crikey’s best articles for ages
BoF’s new slogan. Sydney: we’re closed for business.
by bluegreen on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:37 pm
GG
Yes. Apparently, the advice is (from those in the know) that no-one in their right mind would attempt the voyage from Darwin to NZ at this time of year.
by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:37 pm
I heard an unusual statistic today, 10% of household income is being saved.
If interest rates are cut by .5% would the savings rate just increase to 10.5%.
It seems there is plenty of money around, it is just not being spent. Is this the result of the multiple scare campaigns being waged?
by ruawake on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:37 pm
ru
That and the after effects of the GFC.
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Need I remind you I support “STOP THE BOATS”. It is Labor (once again) who has stuffed things up since ruddy got his hands the tiller. Now we have labor with one foot in each camp so to speak. Won’t stop the boats so we have thousands comming and then locks up more people and for longer time frames then the Howard government.
And before you all jump down my neck I will say it for you…. It’s all Abbotts fault.
by rummel on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:39 pm
vic,
Apparently.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:40 pm
GG
I have not seen it reported anywhere
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Centre @ 905
The above statement defines a lot of things.
Furthermore, there is an old racecourse expression ‘self praise is no recommendation!’
Kezza @ 931 Thanks. And it’s not even the cocktail hour
by Dr John on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:43 pm
rummel
We hear you loud and clear.
Nothing, not one thing, the federal government has done since December 2007 has been beneficial. You’re an open wound.
Here, have some salt. Pour it on liberally.
Might get a different reaction.
I feel a large scroll coming on.
by kezza2 on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm
guytaur – thanks for the Albo/Philip Clark link. Just had a bit of a laugh over Clark
http://anthonyalbanese.com.au/transcript-of-interview-with-philip-clark-abc-702
So Clark has been corrected about Brereton’s ‘cast iron’ promise because of a change in Govt. and he’s agreed Albo is right. What’s the bet that the next time Clark mentions Brereton’s promise there will be no mention of Howard canning it.
Wasn’t Clark a recent 2BG reject?
by BH on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm
vic,
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/imf-calls-on-resourcerich-countries-to-save-in-boom-times-20120411-1wp9b.html
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:44 pm
bluegreen
It will go well with Bob Carr’s “Sydney: We’re full .”
by poroti on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:45 pm
by victoria on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Sky News said Julia Gillard was unable to attend Lionel Bowen’s funeral today because she was ill – that’s the only mention I’ve heard.
by leone on Apr 11, 2012 at 3:46 pm