Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Monday, April 16, 2012

Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.

Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:

• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.

The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

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Before I forget.

The response from listeners to Malcolm Turnbull. Massively negative. While I was listening not one supporting message was read out. We all know how if there was one it would be read out for balance purposes.

The NBN political vote winning gold. In Sydney one of the last places to get NBN with ADSL 2+ speeds already.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:34 am
Gweneth – all the best for you. Hope you stick with us online despite the news, even the silly arguments can provide a laugh!

http://tinyurl.com/6udunxk (click google link)

Funding costs of banks are easing, says RBA
BY: SCOTT MURDOCH From: The Australian April 18, 2012 12:00AM

THE Reserve Bank has indicated wholesale funding costs of the banks were beginning to ease, despite the banking sector's claims that elevated costs were continuing to crimp their profit margins.

Minutes from the RBA's April meeting showed the board believed that while funding costs were higher than they were in the middle of last year, five-year debt funding was now 50 basis points cheaper now compared with three months ago.

http://tinyurl.com/8xtja6z (click google link)

IMF expects Australian growth of up to 3.5pc in 2013
BY: ENDA CURRAN AND IAN TALLEY From: Dow Jones Newswires April 18, 2012 8:43AM

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept a broadly upbeat outlook on Australia's economy even as the central bank and others signal a slower-than-expected pace of growth.

In its flagship World Economic Outlook report released overnight, the Washington-based fund said that it expected Australia's economy to grow 3.0 per cent in 2012 and 3.5 per cent in 2013. It had previously forecast growth of 3.3 per cent for this year.

by Leroy on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:34 am
Gillard takes swipe at Barnett

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13453992/gillard-takes-swipe-at-barnett/

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:45 am
Gweneth,
Sending you heaps of positive thoughts and best wishes to you and your family. Pleased to know that you are getting exemplary treatment from the health system.

by janice2 on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:46 am
Gweneth, best wishes.

by dave on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:46 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:48 am
More confirmation of the Government economic credentials -

Australian economy leads the world

Australia has the strongest economy in the developed world and it is expected to outperform all comers for at least the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html

by dave on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:48 am
Abbott is wanting to continue talking about the carbon price, because it is obviously hurting the govt and helping him. It manages to keep him in the LOTO job for as long as possible. Meanwhile Turnbull is making a goose of himself knocking the NBN

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:49 am
The night before Kevin Rudd was rolled as prime minister, he and miner Andrew Forrest had just agreed to transform the resource super profits tax into a radical proposal to revolutionise the delivery of infrastructure in Australia.

So, for NewsLtd, Rudd hatched A Cunning Plan to open up the Australia Network to NewsLtd, which had the resources to top every other bid – so Murdoch got what he wanted.

And for Big Mining Moguls, Twiggy says (Twiggy says many things which don’t come true) he and Rudd hatched A Cunning Plan to ensure miners did not pay the tax, but instead built themselves the road, rail & port infrastructure they wanted to cut transit times & increase profits! So much for all the MRRT goodies promised small business, working families via improved superannuation etc!

Was this A Cunning Plan Too Far that precipitated Julia Gillard’s coup?

How many other Cunning Plans might Rudd have been hatching?

by OzPol Tragic on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:50 am
Dick Smith making sense on Business Today.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:50 am
OPT

Rudd is proving to be the best friend Labor never had

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:53 am
WOW, Finns. Another King-of-the-World BOSON for Swannie & Oz!

Australian economy leads the world

Australia has the strongest economy in the developed world and it is expected to outperform all comers for at least the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html

by OzPol Tragic on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:54 am
I’ll be sending you good vibes too, Gweneth. All the best.

by Aguirre on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:54 am
Abbott was talking about Rudd in his presser today. That should tell labor supporters everything.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:54 am
Gweneth

Sending positive vibes your way and have fingers crossed .

by poroti on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:55 am
Gweneth
Positive vibes and lots of good wishes sent your way.

by leone on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:55 am
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/04/18/471001_latest-news.html

VICTORIAN farmers are worse off under the Baillieu Government than they were under Labor.

That's according to outgoing Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, who told The Weekly Times he was "very jaded" by the Victorian Government's "failure to keep election promises".

Said Andrew Broad has been very very supportive of the Coalition up until now…

He said farmers faced "a harder road under a coalition government to achieve outcomes for regional Victorian than ... under (Labor Premier John) Brumby."

"What have we got out of the State Government? Very little," Mr Broad said.

Mr Broad said particularly disappointing was the "non-delivery" of four key Coalition agriculture pre-election promises: for stamp duty exemptions on the first $300,000 of farmland bought by young farmers, a first farm grant, a rural youth movement and an agriculture exchange program.

"When they went to the election with those ... I thought if there's one thing I've done (as VFF president) then it is put the need to get young people into industry in the minds of government," he said.

"The non-delivery of that has made me very jaded and made me realise the VFF has to maintain its apolitical status."

I think ‘go back to it’ would be more to the point.

"Andrew is entitled to his opinion but I am surprised if he thinks country people weren't glad to be rid of the Brumby Government," he said.

"Country people I talk to were glad to see the end of that government, especially on issues like the desalination plant and the north-south pipeline

Er, being glad to get rid of the last government and being happy with the present one are two different things.

by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:57 am
Calling all Dolphins ! The Finnigans. This has to be a Mega BISON.

guytaur

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html

by poroti on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:58 am
Amazon eyeing off local warehouse in Australia

http://www.smh.com.au/business/amazon-eyeing-off-local-warehouse-in-australia-20120417-1x5k5.html

by dave on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:58 am
Abbott is trying to claim labor policy as his own. e.g. NDIS.

And this Forked-tongue self-confessed perennial liar has the hide to call Julia Gillard a liar over a carbon “tax” that is not a tax but a “price” – that’s how big a Prince of Lies he is!

by OzPol Tragic on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:59 am
guytaur@1363

How so?

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:00 am
BW@1279:

If you step back from this claim a bit you see straight away how silly it is. Let’s assume for a second that WW1, WW2 and the Korean War had not occurred or that, Australia had chosen not to participate in them. This would have meant that Australia would have been 50 years old without having gone to war. Would this have meant that Australa would not have ‘…come of age…’. The notion is absurd.

Thanks BW, I’ve often needed that insight without realising it when discussing wars.

It is repeated so often that it becomes a given.

by don on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:02 am
OPT

Abbott is going to have to repeat the lie for a while. The only take out from that Presser will be the gay activists confrontation on Lygon Street.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:02 am
Gweneth – rotten news for you and fingers crossed for the second option. My ‘vibe machine’ is fully ramped up for you. Smithe too.

by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:03 am
victoria

He was saying positive things about Rudd. This means he wants Labor people talking about Rudd.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:03 am
Meanwhile headlines over at the Oz:

Flawed tax figures hide budget pain

by gloryconsequence on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/13453992/gillard-takes-swipe-at-barnett/

Gillard takes swipe at Barnett
Andrew Probyn Federal Political Editor, The West Australian
Updated April 18, 2012, 2:50 am

Julia Gillard says Colin Barnett is a "boom time leader" who is not doing enough to ensure the massive wealth generated by the mining sector is fairly distributed.

In a vigorous defence of her Government's mining tax, the Prime Minister said yesterday the Premier did not understand the pressures on many people in WA if he thought the tax should be axed.

"When you look at the WA community, there are many who are experiencing the benefits of the boom and the benefits that flow from it, but there are people who feel they've been left behind," Ms Gillard said.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/13439700/ageing-time-bomb-will-change-the-way-we-live/

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/no-winners-in-mummy-wars-debate-20120417-1x5j3.html

No winners in mummy wars debate
April 18, 2012
OPINION
Jessica Irvine

by Leroy on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:04 am
guytaur

Abbott must be getting desperate if he is returning to The topic of Rudd

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:05 am
Desperate to change the topic

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:06 am
victoria

I think desperate is the appropriate word. No early election. Now votes in the party room are changing with Schulz resigning.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:07 am
OPT@1301:

Mine’s just c20 metres westward down the footpath. But it’s already wired, as I posted on PB last year when we drove past a pack of technicians doing it. We’re waiting for the copper ‘over the big hill’ to be replaced with fibre. Switch-on in October, we’re told.

The good thing is that even if you only get copper, the closer the optical fibre the better the copper reception is for internet.

We’re on copper, a few km from the exchange, and we get 2 to 5 Mbps downloads, which I’m told is pretty good, considering. Uploads are around 0.2 to 0.3 Mbps.

We have no hope of getting optical fibre, but if the fibre node comes closer, our speeds should improve.

by don on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:08 am
glory

The Oz better be careful. It has to keep some credibility to have the rest of the media follow it every morning.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
The Finnigans @ 1248

Oh no, not more #Ruddstoration shits, this time coming from Twiggy – http://www.afr.com/p/rudd_secret_mining_tax_deal_7mgH4bhOv5sGHJPScyS33J – Methinks there is some sour yogurt here

No, not Ruddstoration at all, but on my reading a further exposure of the duplicity underlying the events of June 2010.

If it embarrasses certain people then tough. The answer is to not behave that way.

by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:09 am
Abbott is going to have to repeat the lie for a while. The only take out from that Presser will be the gay activists confrontation on Lygon Street.

Was that Greg Sheridan sharing coffee with Abbott in Lygon Street? Perhaps they were trying to work out a response to the PM’s forthcoming speech on Afghanistan.

by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:11 am
victoria

see 1248 finns and bemused 1382 for more reasons for Abbot to talk up Rudd.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:11 am
Off Topic:

I thought parents of teen girls should be warned. Massive Disappointment looming.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/sydney-confidential/one-direction-feel-the-pinch-in-a-photo-that-sent-social-media-wild-with-speculation/story-e6frewz0-1226330728459

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:14 am
guytaur

I dont see it as a positive for Rudd. I concur with OPT’s view as per her post at 1358.

Interesting how some see it as a positive for Rudd. it confirms for me, his dupliciitous conduct

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:15 am
dave
Posted Wednesday, April 18, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink
More confirmation of the Government economic credentials -

Australian economy leads the world

Australia has the strongest economy in the developed world and it is expected to outperform all comers for at least the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

and Australians still hate the Government that is the envy of the world. In “Panic”, David Marr points out that Australians always have a way of finding things to keep their fear alive. I know exactly what David means but I will go further and say that Aussies are generally stupid, not as stupid as the Americans though.

by adam abdool on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:15 am
Gweneth
Posted Wednesday, April 18, 2012 at 9:07 am | Permalink
Morning PBs

I haven’t posted for a while but have been reading most days.

I need a bit of a favour.

I have just been diagnosed with serious cancer – not sure which one yet. It looks like it could be either pancreas or ovarian. Best possible option is the ovarian one.

So I need some positive vibes to be sent to the universe to ensure that outcome. My home team is on the job but the more working on it the better is my hope.

Found out last Friday. In a moment your life changes completely.

My biggest hug goes to you, please take care of yourself and keep in contact. If any good also my prayers are going up? for you

by mari on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:16 am
BH

Yes it was Sheridan with Abbott

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:16 am
victoria

I was speaking of reasons why Abbott wants Rudd talked up. I think the less said by labor people the better. Just let him sink into backbencher obscurity.

by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
victoria @ 1386

And I suspect a Twiggy leak to cause trouble, nothing more.

by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:18 am
guytaur

Good advice. Enough said

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:19 am
lizzie

Agreed. Best for Labor MPs to keep their mouths shut.

by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:19 am
Gweneth

Logging in this morning just for this comment:

I don’t know you but I suppose we all sort of know one another here whatever we post from time to time and we can be touched by each other’s problems. I sincerely wish you as good a diagnosis as possible and the strength of mind and body to put up a successful fight. I will be praying for you and unless you’d prefer otherwise, I will ask our Rabbi on Saturday to add your log-in name to those he reads out and requests from the Almighty a speedy recovery. Whether a believer or not, when combined with the prayers and positive vibes and thoughts of others expressed here, I hope this can do only good.

by Mick77 on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
guytaur
Posted Wednesday, April 18, 2012 at 9:16 am | Permalink
Melissa Clarke: Economics are going to dominate the debate.

I hope she is right. We will see the polls fall for Abbott and Co.

But in Melissa Clarke’s eyes this will be a massive vote winner for Coalition

by mari on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
WOW, Finns. Another King-of-the-World BOSON for Swannie & Oz!

Australian economy leads the world

PUHLEEEEEZZZZEEE!

So says the IMF, the “International Morons Fan-club”, a smarmy conglomerate of dagoes, wogs, Yanks, greedy bankers, Eyeties, lecherous rapists, grovelling journalists, leeching bankers, overpaid plutocrats sucking off the tit of their respective economies, derivatives spruikers, credit rating rorters, expense account junkies, urgers, lurk merchants, poufters and failed economists… none of them, according to the almighty Newspoll, Rad Hadley, Alan Jones, Chris Smith, Terry McCrann and the assembled legions of Shark-hatted Grey Nomads who turn up to CATA protests, a patch on Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb and Tony Abbott, who together comprise the guiding force of Australia’s economy, and who have rightly pointed out that we are f**ked unless the bad and toxic Gillard government is booted out and the adults once again regain charge of the economic sandpit.

Did I miss anyone out?

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:20 am
Next time some future prime minister decides to send the boys and girls off to a war that is none of our business she/he should make sure that the top brass are dragged from the comfort and safety of their air-conditioned city offices to be the first sent into combat. That would pretty much guarantee the whole thing would be over in less than 24 hours.

leone – great idea and send along the politicians who made the decision too

by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:21 am
OPT @1358

How many other Cunning Plans might Rudd have been hatching?

“Gifting” the Australian Network to StyNews.

by Dan Gulberry on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:22 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
1/2 How timely. As I am preparing for the BISON Updates – GOLDEN BISON – IMF says Aust has the strongest economy in the developed world

by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:23 am

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