Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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2/2 – IMF says Australia expected to outperform all comers for at least the next two years http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html#ixzz1sLYIvoRY
by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:23 am
mari
I have not seen her say that. Especially now with this headline staring at her on one of her office screens
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:24 am
The Finns
They are indeed great BISONS. no frickin wonder Abbott wants to change the subject
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:24 am
Mick77
Lovely sentiments. Hope Gweneth sees them
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:25 am
DTT
I think you’re in Brisbane? These sound like underground power connections – there’s some like this (green) in our area as well where power has been undergrounded along the main shopping strip although it’s still on poles in the residential streets.
by ajm on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:26 am
No need for more comment
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-staffer-quits-after-antifeminist-rant-20120418-1x6bs.html#ixzz1sLa3ip7T
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:26 am
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:26 am
Oh dear. Problems with iinet continuing.
4 attempts to sign my phone service over to them yesterday. Expected them to ring me this morning, but then my nicer side said to give them another chance, so I rang them again.
Got through to a very nice girl in Sales. Had no idea what I was talking about. Had to go through the whole thing several times very slowly. She put me on hold while she consulted someone else.
Came back and told me they’d transfer me over. No discount, however, for bundling.
Which was the only reason I wanted to transfer, so I told her that.
So she said she’d tranfer me to someone who could actually sell me the package that they’d offered me last week (which, if I’d said ‘yes’ to then, rather than “I need to compare prices” would have been a 5 second process).
5 minutes of listening to cool jazz later, I hung up.
Twenty minutes of my life gone for nothing.
But they did just email me a nice little ‘customer satisfaction’ survey…..
by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:27 am
Gweneth, very big vibes from offspring & me, especially in the days of endless tests, tears and trauma ahead.
I recommend you opt for the Public Hospital system – private cancer care can now cost a 5 figure sum over & above the top medical fund rebate, and the public system is fast-tracked to research centres (you’ll be seeing the same specialists anyway!) – and see if your doctors will refer you to the best treatment centre for that particular cancer – even if involves travel.
If you haven’t already been asked … In Q (prob same in all states) OH was asked “living will” type questions re palliative care in the first “Good/ Bad News” specialist consultation – out of the blue, just like that!
Be assured you couldn’t get better treatment even if you has Murdoch’s zillions. PH waiting & consulting etc rooms might be grotty – and most of the mags for the brain-dead only – but Australia’s cancer treatment is at the world’s cutting-edge; much “cutting edge” essential diagnosis & treatment machinery (inc linear accelerators) has been installed in the last few years, and the whole system streamlined.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:27 am
c u bludgers later
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:28 am
zoomster
If you are not locked into a contract yet you could try moving to Internode. Part of iinet infrastructure. Good customer service in my experience.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:29 am
Gweneth
Sending all the best vibes and prayers for your treatment and recovery. I’ve been through three life threatening medical episodes myself and I’m sure the support of others has somehow helped me to pull through on each occasion.
by ajm on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:31 am
mari – I think it’s time to send some of Cuppa’s posts to her re the lazy Costello/Howard economic management.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:32 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html#ixzz1sLYIvoRY
Fin, they only saying 2 years because they can’t predict the disaster should TA and the Libs win. Makes sense.
by adam abdool on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:33 am
Zoomster – go for i, girl!
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:34 am
And good luck with him, Mr Cambell Newman!.
by 1934pc on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:35 am
Agree with BB@1324 that PM Curtin’s WW2 decision to bring our troops back from North Africa to fight the japanese was the most significant wartime decision defining our nationhood – as Australians first. Until the election of the Howard government in 1996, this was broadly understood and we were quietly proud.
Then, during the Howard years, the WW1 Gallipoli story was pushed to the forefront of national consciousness for base ideological purposes (Curtin was ALP after all and cannot have done anything good). Howard’s grandfather fought in the trenches in WW1 so his personal story became the touchpoint for the turnaround in national wartime mythologising. The military establishment (not the old soldiers) and the media propaganda machine jumped on the bandwagon with all that government money sloshing around.
We witnessed over a decade of jaw-dropping historical revisionism, including rock concerts for the yoof on anzac day at Gallipoli and posters of Simpson and his donkey pasted up in school rooms (under orders from the Howard government – apparently in ignorance of Simpson’s true story, and that turkish donkey – which many government school teachers made merry with in the classrooms).
An entire generation of children had their heads filled with the manufactured glories of WW1, while our defining battles in WW2, and Curtin’s risky decision in a time of great peril at home, were ignored.
Meanwhile a generation of WW2 heroes, unrelated to John Howard, has passed on mostly unregarded. We are still waiting for their story to be taught in schools as the stuff of legend – and the making of a nation.
by susan winstanley on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:36 am
Gweneth
Always sad to hear bad news such as yours but will be crossing my fingers for you to have good treatment and recovery. All the best.
by adam abdool on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
guytaur
well, the irony is that I’m really not that interested in changing over. It’s just that they said if I bundled the phone service with the NBN satellite plan they’d give me a discount.
Now, of course, no one seems to know what I’m talking about!
Bright side: I get my NBN satellite installed tomorrow, a day ahead of schedule.
by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
Gweneth
Best wishes and many hugs.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:38 am
Gweneth @ 1313
Sorry to hear your alarming news and I wish you all the best for a good outcome.
Stay strong and keep your excellent posts coming. We need you on PB to keep us informed on the West.
I will be thinking of you as I do think of all the others on PB with health issues.
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:39 am
zoomster
See if you can find the order number for your service. Quote it to them. It is fact track access to your info on the computer system. Then they have no excuse of not knowing.
Put in comments on customer satisfaction that needs to be highlight to be quoted in followups.
Good luck and enjoy your NBN service.
I still have to wait. I am in the three year rollout phase.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:41 am
susanw – well said. Gallipoli was a gigantic stuffup from start to finish and I don’t like the ‘tabloidism’ surrounding the ceremony there each year. It needs more reverence for those lost by my family and others. I despised Howard for trading on this for years.
Curtin is a huge hero to me and he should be highlighted in our history. Thanks for reminding us, BB.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:42 am
Zoom, find your friendly local nerds & geeks, the ones who design online systems for businesses, professional services, schools, and provide Internet connection they buy from Telstra/ NBN etc at wholesale prices, so they can “bundle” at retail price (or less) – the ones whose IT business depends entirely on client satisfaction!
Only once did I try to go with a big carrier (Telstra) on a “good offer”. Several frustrating, lie-filled, unintelligible voice on the phone weeks later, when I had “go for Ombudsman + not fit for use option”, my local nerds promised to meet my needs (for a decade I was their only mac user, though they now have more).
BTW: Friends just went through the same rigmarole, without pulling the plug (or following my advice), until an IT-pro friend fixed the prob, so it “only” took 3 months to fix!
Sometime “cheap” turns out to be the dearer option!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:45 am
Again thanks to all for the prayers and vibes. Though an atheist I am a avid student of history and humans and have great respect for the wisdom that can be found in the major doctrines in amongst the dross. Is there really much difference between prayer, meditation and self hypnosis? And the capacity for love and good when we are at our best is as powerful as any divinity I have read about.
So Mick I am happy to be referred to the Rabbi. What connects us all is more significant than that which divides. And I definitely want mysay on my support team!
by Gweneth on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:47 am
It confuses me Mr Turnbull how some wealthy people have NO logic?!.
by 1934pc on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:49 am
zoomster
You can probably find the answer here. If not you can ask and get answered fairly quickly. These boards are monitored by the ISP’s to protect company reputation.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:51 am
http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum/142
That is link for comment 1426
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:52 am
Not sure if mentioned here yet, but from AFR, eminently sensible query from Tony Windsor:
I would extend that to whether the cost of the airlines is tax deductible as well/subject to FBT
My *guess* is that the unequal tax system is distorting decision making
by Laocoon on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:53 am
OK, iinet has rung me back and grovelled. I’m still not happy, but at least they’re willing to accept my money now.
by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:53 am
Gweneth sending all the best wishes.
by davidwh on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:55 am
Let us not forget that the Gallipoli ANZACs were fighting Muslims in their own territory, too… a inspiring antecedent to fighting Muslims on their own territory in Afghanistan and, more particularly, Iraq.
Once again I go back to my school days and remember that it was very clearly put to us that Gallipoli was an admittedly brave, but eventually purposeless failure. Kokoda was all the rage in Australian schools war-story-wize in the 1960s.
Then in the early 2000s, revisionist historian Peter Stanley at the War Memorial started out on the story that defending Australia in New Guinea was a quaint myth: that the Japanese never thought very seriously of invading Australia.
Apart from the context of the time – the bombings of Darwin, Townsville, Broome and the shelling of Sydney from a submarine, the design of the Brisbane Line – where a government that did not act against the Japanese threat would have been collectively lynched from the nearest street lamp, it should be pointed out that we did not have access to secret files kept in a secure repository at the headquarters of the Japanese Imperial Army in Tokyo, as Stanley did, decades after the war ended.
Furthermore, if we hadn’t defended New Guinea, returning soliers from North Africa to do so, I wonder whether the Japanese might not have chagned their plans and invaded anyway, even just the more northern parts of the NT and Queensland to stop those areas being used as bases?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:56 am
Gweneth,
Plenty of good vibrations from me too. And you stay positive! I reckon a positive attitude can work wonders with illnesses. Beats the hell out of moping anyway.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:56 am
Zoomster – they must have been reading PB!
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58 am
zoomster,
You’re filling in the survey while talking to them? Nothing like immediate feedback.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58 am
Could one of you financial gurus explain what Swannie means?
Is surplus the only criterion for performance??
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58 am
Gweneth,
All the very best. Good-vibe department is working overtime.
by Scringler on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58 am
tlbd
they email you the survey while you’re talking to them, so yes!
Alas, it didn’t happen with the really annoying salesperson I had yesterday, but for the poor girl who was actually trying to sort it out.
by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:02 am
We’ve been dumbed down as a nation so much over the past 20 years – by both sides – that unfortunately the answer for most Australians is yes.
by Son of foro on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:02 am
Gweneth – all the best
by Laocoon on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:03 am
Can somebody explain the logic of this for me?
by bluegreen on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:03 am
Andrew Leigh has another good article http://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=2484
The first two paras are a beauty. He talks about the positive attitude of Alexander Graham Bell discussing telephony. Left me with a wry smile.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:04 am
Aunty: Julia!!
Julia: Yes, Aunty Michelle.
Aunty: These vegetables taste funny.
Julia: Sorry Aunty. What’s wrong?
Aunty: I don’t know. Did you rinse them before you put them in the pot?
Julia: (sigh) Yes Aunty.
Aunty: Mm. Did you use bottled water not that awful stuff from the tap …..?
Julia: Yes Aunty.
Aunty: Did you put the salt in the pot before you added the vegetables?
Julia: Yes Aunty.
Aunty: How come the cauliflower is in between the beans and the mashed potatoes? You know I like to mix the beans and the mashed …..
Julia: Sorry Aunty. I had to take a call from President Obama just when I was dishing out the veggies. Syria looks like descending into …..
Aunty: Hmmph. What about my plate? Did you wash it first – you know I hate the idea of having (ugh) Tim’s saliva all over my plate?
Julia: Yes Aunty. Your plate and cutlery get washed first before anything else goes in.
Aunty: You didn’t use that awful Australian Fauna tea-towel to wipe it did you?
Julia: No Aunty. I used the lovely Australian Flora one that you gave me.
Aunty: Hmmph. Did you wipe it in a clockwise direction because you know …..
Julia: Yes Aunty.
Aunty: Did you wipe the front first or the back?
Julia: Well, I’m not sure. What difference …..
Aunty: AHA! And you wonder why I don’t let you do my washing. You can’t manage the most basic of tasks.
Julia: Sorry Aunty.
Aunty: Now, about this Afghanistan thing. Did it even occur to you that some ex-military types would spring up to question your judgement on this?
Julia: Yes Aunty.
Aunty: And did it cross your mind that antagonistic members of the opposition would paint this as a political decision not a strategic one?
Julia: Yes Aunty.
Aunty: Well, why didn’t you do something about it?
Julia: Perhaps if I were the Prime Minister of Russia I could have had them all locked up for 48 hours.
Aunty: But … but …. but …. freedom of speech must be respected!
Julia: Yes Aunty. If this were Fiji I could have shut down the media for a week.
Aunty: Errk! A free press is the cornerstone of our democracy. You can’t just shut it down because it might report something that you don’t like.
Julia: No Aunty. Perhaps if this were China I could have had all of the nay-sayers taken out and shot.
Aunty: WHAT?? You can’t do that!
Julia: No Aunty.
Aunty: So you’re going to let them wipe their feet on you like a doormat?
Julia: No Aunty, I’m going to treat the Australian public as adults, allow them to be exposed to a wide variety of opinions and let them make up their own minds.
Aunty: Hmmph. You really do need to take control of the media cycle Julia.
Julia: Yes Aunty? So that some journalist in The Age can write more crap about me being addicted to spin and chasing the polls? Thanks Aunty.
Aunty: These vegetables are cold!
Julia: Sorry Aunty.
Aunty: You can’t even do the simplest of tasks without mismanaging it. No wonder no-one wants to marry you.
Julia: Yes Aunty. Sorry Aunty.
by NormanK on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:04 am
Norman,
Damn pesky things vegetables! And aunts.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:08 am
Gweneth
Best wishes.
by BSA Bob on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:11 am
Australians who turn 21 this year will have spent over 95% of their lives growing up in a nation at war.
Going to the comments of l, bb, sw and d what did those 21 years do for Australia as a nation?
I don’t know what the relative figures are for the ADF but the single biggest spender of all forms of spin in the world is the US military. An awful lot of the feeds we got for our 20 years of war were military channelled. While some it, rightly, was censored in order to give the enemies advantage, most of it was to ‘manage’ what civilians knew and thought. Naturally, this meant that, indirectly, the military was also ‘information managing’ the civilians governments. (The military apparently got so used to it that they were discomfited when Defence Minister Smith vented anger at being lied to about the readiness of the navy’s amphibious ships for cyclone relief work.)
Out of a population of around 22 million, a few tens of thousands, far less than 1% of the population, have actually participated in 20 years of war. Should we allow that minute proportion, that small activity, be the defining element of the last two decades of Australia?
Is that all there is?
Have we become a better or a more mature nation? Or have we allowed ourselves to become so militarised that we can’t go to the footie without enduring military images, and listening to the last post, can’t drive between Sydney and Canberra without passing road side stops named after VC winners, and can see a soldier’s widow allowing herself to be used to sell beer in television ads? Is it now impossible to discuss the AWM without getting semi-religious intolerance in response?
The hard reality is that most, if not all, of our wars were avoidable and further, that our contribution to those wars was, in the larger scheme of things, insignificant.
Australia is a wonderful, wonderful nation in so many ways – and often world-leading ways. That is to say, really significant ways. The reality is that our major achievements as a nation – the elements that should define as as nation -have all been in the civil sphere.
We should not allow the militarist tail to wag the civilian dog. We need for todays’s babies to reach 100 years old without us having been in a war so that we, as a nation, can understand and appreciate a new normal.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:13 am
B.B. at 1396
You should certainly have included Unionists & probably dope smokers.
by BSA Bob on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:16 am
bg
The logic is perfectly clear.
It is economically incompetent to do a brutalist surplus this budget.
Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey know this perfectly well.
But they want an ecnomically competent budget deficit.
So that they can whack Ms Gillard and Mr Swan mercilessly on the topic Labor’s economic incompetence.
Politics as theatre of the absurd just about covers it.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:18 am
I don’t understand why we MUST always send our people to fight alongside Americans to prove they’re our Best Friends and have trade agreements with them.
What if China goes to war? Should we join them as well to retain our trade agreements?
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:19 am
Gwenth
You do realise that if you go and see the Rabbi, you going to make the others Gods angry?
Take care!!
by adam abdool on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:19 am