Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gweneth
So sorry to hear of your health problems stay as strong as you can but allow yourself to cry occasionally as well. My very best wishes go out to you.
Mick77 @ 1394
That was a beautiful post!
by MTBW on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:23 am
BB & Susan
Those who returned, as has been mentioned, were the 7th Division.
Known as the ‘Silent Seventh’ as they were never mentioned other than with words like ‘Australian forces’. John Lavarack, the original commander, was not considered a friend by Gen Blamey hence, it’s said, a policy of ‘don’t mention the 7th’ set in and remained.
Later the 7th was commanded by ‘Tubby’ Allen who was sacked by Blamey after the Americans complained that they were not aggressive enough on Kokoda.
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:26 am
The case for a Budget surplus.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/why-swan-needs-a-budget-surplus/story-e6frgd0x-1226317939617
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:27 am
Gweneth,
Sending you all my best thoughts and wishes.
by Burgey on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:35 am
CTar1
You have left out the 9th Division. They did very ‘hefty lifting’ in Northern Africa. And then undertook very hefty lifting in PNG & Borneo.
I know from family experience.
And to Boerwar I say again I am sad but proud about this. Should we deride our past.
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:37 am
Dr John – ‘Not Not’ mentioning the 9th if you get what I mean!
My father was with the 7th from it’s formation in 1940 (at a place I’m sure you’ve watched ‘neddies’ many times) through to the end of the war. The ME, New Guinea and Borneo all ‘done’.
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:43 am
BB@1431: yes, Peter Stanley at the AWM, and others of similar bent, benefitted from the opening of Howard government coffers to fund the “culture wars” against the Left (including PM Curtin and WW2).
That is, pay the Right people and you will get the Right answer!
However, we should be consoled. The Right’s attempt to make their own Long March through the Institutions (supplanting that imaginary Left hegemony) will fail in the long run, because the Right lacks the most basic asset for the march, intellectual heft. Facts are a bit of a nuisance too. Funny that.
by susan winstanley on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:44 am
Mexico’s House of Representatives has passed a climate change law that will require 50% less carbon production by 2050; phase out fossil fuel subsidies; make renewable power fully competitive with oil, gas and coal; cut dirty carbon emissions 30% by 2020 with international support; and ensure that 35% of the country’s electricity will come from clean sources by 2024. The vote was 280 to 10, with one abstemption
by Toorak Toff on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:44 am
BB
One of the enduring zombie myths of Australian military history is that Australia stopped Japanese progress.
What stopped Japanese progress in the Pacific was air and surface dominance of the Pacific by the US. Our naval and air contribution to this was minimal. (If we had had concentrated in prewar years on developing a submarine fleet rather than on a cruiser force adjunct to the Royal Navy we would almost certainly have made a significant difference in the Pacific, but that is another story.)
The Kokoda trail, and indeed all battles in SEA in which Australia participated, were irrelevant backwater battles and did nothing to shorten the war against the Japanese.
The main US strategy of destroying Japanese logistics and allowing Japanese garrisons to starve to death all over the Pacific was the correct strategy. By the end of the war, a Japanese merchant ship faced virtually a 100% chance of being unable to make a single return trip. The real fight was always going to be in the Japanese home islands. Japanese soldiers stranded elsewhere could safely be left to their own devices. This was essentially a USN/ Marines strategy.
But we were saddled with Gen MacArthur (US Army) who wanted an army war and managed to skive off enough resources to muck around in New Guinea and then to cause over a million casualties in the Philippines for no good military reason at all.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:45 am
Dr John no we shouldn’t. Blame the politicians if they make poor decisions and send our forces to fight in suspect wars but always respect the forces for honoring their committment to all Aussies.
by davidwh on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:45 am
TT. 1457
Good news. Yet another country joining action. Mare they doing an ETS too?
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:50 am
davidwh 1459
Yes well put. No making the Vietnam mistake again.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:52 am
What a surprise – the best performing ecomony in the world is not *good enough* for abbott.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/3-per-cent-growth-not-good-enough-Abbott-TG2LC?OpenDocument&src=hp5
by dave on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:54 am
NormanK 1442
brilliant! just love it!
by Lyne Lady on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:55 am
Dave. 1462
Abbott would call a gold bar a turd if he thought it damaged labor.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:56 am
Dr John@1454: Yes, let’s not forget the 9th Division.
My father was on those ships returning from the deserts of North Africa, on Curtin’s orders, through perilous seas, to be re-deployed immediately into the jungles of New Guinea and Borneo. Front-line battle service across the planet, facing a new enemy, without rest, for years on end. Extraordinary.
We will not forget, Mr Howard.
by susan winstanley on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:59 am
Boerwar – and thats why we are an ally and should remain so of the USA.
It’s a bit like supporting Labor through fire or hell for all they have done previously for Australian society.
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Gweneth,
I know I am late to the party, but wanted to let you know that I am now mentally drowning you in positive thoughts. Sending much love and a great big virtual hug. x
by Space Kidette on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Dr John – I sure I remember a comment on the 9th – “liked to have tanks with them”.
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:11 pm
davidwh @ 1459
You should appreciate this poem by A.D. Hope
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:13 pm
CTar1
And wouldn’t just 100 of the tanks then lying fallow in the UK have made a difference in the Malay campaign…
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:13 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:21 pm
b
This is essentially the Nuremberg defence in quite another context. (Although there were some spooky historical parallels in terms of master race, slave holding, militarisation of society and infanticide of the unfit). Many of those using the Nuremberg defence were hung for war crimes. While I don’t support the death penalty, they were certainly guilty, and they certainly deserved live in prision.
Now, it is a truth, universally acknolwedged, that Australian soldiers can do wrong. Everyone says so.
But is that really the truth? Is this truth as axiomatic as it is made out to be? And why do we subscribe to it uncritically?
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Ridiculous. The Japanese got to within 20 miles of Port Moresby AFTER fighting all the way from Kokoda. It was only starvation that stopped them in the end.
If our forces had not opposed them, strengthed by the regulars after Isurava, then they could have walked into Moresby easily. No-one knows what the result would have been but to say that the Japanese would have stuck to their plan not to invade Australia is only one of the possibilities.
If Moresby had been taken it would have been a lot more difficult for MacArthur to carry out his New Guinea operations, for one thing. If we had handed Moresby – technically on Australian soil – to the Japanese they could easily have deduced that we were unwilling to fight and changed their plans.
The context of the time is too easy to overlook. Moresby had been bombed dozens of times. Towns on mainland Northern Australia likewise. There was literally panic in the streets on occasion in the southern cities. It’s very easy sitting back in an armchair after the event, getting fat off a Howard government grant, to dish the dirt on Curtin in favour of the more symbolic Gallipoli Campaign – where we were at war fighting Muslims on their home soil, just as we did in Iraq.
If you don’t defend your territory don’t expect your enemy to follow his original plan, just because it’s written down on a piece of paper somewhere. If you hand your enemy your country without a fight, you can fully expect the enemy to take it, without saying “Thank You”.
It was clear, at the time, that the belief in Australia, certainly among civilians, was that we were about to be invaded in some form or another. A government that did nothing to allay this fear by pushing back against the enemy wouldn’t have lasted 5 minutes.
While this may have been due to a misunderstanding of Japanese plans – MAY have been due to it – you just can’t assume that your enemy will oblige by sticking to the original strategy.
Ironically, that’s exactly what our generals did at Gallipoli – stuck to the plan -and look what happened there.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Thanks bemused the poem says it all. People who question the meaning of ANZAC Day should read that poem.
by davidwh on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Brian Howe at National Press Club
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Boerwar @ 1472
Another of your tedious lectures that entirely misses the point.
GG got you pretty right yesterday @ 583
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:33 pm
The latest from Grog.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3957366.html
by Space Kidette on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:35 pm
G – as much as this rag bag of intellect here can be with you, we are with you.
Tricot
by Tricot on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:36 pm
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/radioactive-waste-stops-highway-upgrade/story-fnb5f12x-1226331112591
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:37 pm
davidwh @ 1474
It resonates with me.
You might also approve of the famous “To Arms” poster written by Tom Barker during WWI
It caused an uproar at the time (1915) and Tom Barker did gaol time for it.
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:39 pm
I have to go to a funeral now (ironically of a man who was in the Waffen SS during the war), so can’t stay around, but I do wish you’d stop dropping contrarian hand grenades into the discussion then expecting the assembled crew to either refute them or concede the point by default.
It’s trolling, pure and simple, BW.
I don’t personally believe that Australian soldiers “can do no wrong” and I doubt whether many other people – young or old – believe that either.
Sometimes a nation has to fight. If the Japanese invasion of New Guinea wasn’t a case in point, I don’t know what would have been.
I’m not saying every war we’ve been in was necessary or justified, but defending home turf comes pretty close.
The war we left – in North Africa – may have been unnecessary (I don’t know enough about it), but bringing Australian infantrymen back from Africa to defend New Guinea was certainly a brave political move, the action of a mature democracy – against very heavy opposition from abroad and at home in some (conservative) cases – and was arguably completely militarily justified.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:42 pm
BB
Well, we can agree on that, at least…
Whether the IJA starved somewhere up the Kokoda or starved at Port Morseby as they starved everywhere else around New Guinea and nearby islands, would not have shortened the war by even a minute.
The Japanese in New Guinea were not going to go anywhere. It was the end of the expansionist road because they had overreached their logistics. As noted previously, the life expectancy of Japanese freighters was somewhat less than a return trip.
The correct strategy was to bypass starving and disease-ridden garrisons (at times reduced to cannibalism) and to focus on the main strategic objective which was defeat of the Home Islands.
The minor holding action (given the scale of the war) in Kokoda was essentially insignificant to the course of the war.
I appreciate why Australia conducted the New Guinea/Borneo operations. I appreciate that they involved great sacrifice. But this does not alter the point I was making above. Australia’s battles in SEA did not alter the course of the Pacific War. The battles did not shorten the war by a minute.
Ironically, Gallipoli was a similar situation. In the end, the sacrifices there made no strategic difference to the course of the war.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:43 pm
BW @ 1470
‘Maybe’ is the best I can do – tanks and bicycles make an interesting mix (vehicle and cycle commuters in our cities might give us a feel for the dynamic!). I doubt the Japanese could have been stopped from going south.
The Japanese kept surprising and we kept underestimating what they could do – A bit of thinking on what they did to the Russian Navy in 1904 might have illuminated.
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:51 pm
BB
I believe in this stuff. I was a war reffo. My extended family one way or another suffered very, very badly in WW2. Some of the individuals suffered the psychological consequences all of their lives. One of these was my Mum.
I have demonstrated against three wars now. All ended badly. We have been at war for 20 of the past 21 years. It is a sickening statistic.
I fear and loathe what I perceive to be too much gung ho and not enough critical thought about what is happening to Australia. That means I will examine everything that comes along critically – sometimes as it arises, sometimes after years of thinking about it. I will continue to put this stuff up. I am reasonably sure that some Bludgers have had pause to reconsider what they took to be given truths. If even one has done so, I feel that it is worth it.
Others have been confirmed in their views. That is fair enough as well. But trying to kill critical discussion off by accusing me of trolling on the matter is, as they used to say in WW1, going a bit over the top.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Gweneth,
I was very concerned about your news, not least because I always enjoy your contributions. You Sandgropers more than pull your weight with posts. I look forward to you, PatriciaWA, Tricot, Poroti posting and there’s probably others I’ve neglected to mention.
I’m in your corner as are most on PB. Think positive. If need be, read Finns’s BISONS for a bit of cheering up.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:52 pm
First report i have seen on Abbotts Lygon street incident.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-not-gay-about-dinner-ambush-20120418-1x6iu.html
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:52 pm
CTar1
The Japanese used tanks very effectively in the Malay campaign to break at least one of the main lines of defense. When their tanks came up against English tanks in the Burma campaign, they were technically no match for them.
My comment was actually an indirect comment on Imperial priorities.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Have just caught up with Grattans report on the Afghan troop timetable – and obligatory opinion piece. She uses a stupid comment from Brandis to prove that Gillard is not selling the Afhgan decision properly. Have always respected Grattan – but since Gillard came to power, she’s lost her objectivity. Michaell Gordon seems to have taken her slot and former profile – and she’s peeved.
by al palster on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Guytaur (1460): Sorry, don’t know. Picked item up from Daily Kos.
by Toorak Toff on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Zoomster, try Dragnet on (02) 6049 0700 offices in Albury and Wangaratta
by billie on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Gweneth,
Have some idea what you are going through at the moment. About six years ago they found a growth on my bladder.
Generally not a good prognosis and for a couple of weeks my brain raced and there seemed to be a bottomless pit in my stomach.
To make a long story short, turning those negative thoughts into positive ones and crowding out the others was good therapy and I am still here to upset William occasionally.
The old ticker’s been a bit contrary lately but we’ll sort that out as we go.
Bit of a bugger growing older as we seem to have things that we’d rather avoid if at all possible, come our way.
All the best & keep the chin up.
by scorpio on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:07 pm
ap
Ms Grattan is systematically, and unfairly, grumpy with Ms Gillard.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:08 pm
TT
Ok. Thats cool. Hopefully it means we will have another country opening to the carbon trading market.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Now this is mixing sport and politics.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/17/tim-thomas-obama-signs-capitals-fans_n_1431367.html
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Boerwar,
And Ms Gillard is just as grumpy with Ms Grattan – but not unfairly.
by al palster on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:12 pm
BW
I understood that.
Our attitude to the Brit priorities was to bring back the 7th. The 9th was left in the ME for quite some time because the Brits refused to provide the transport to bring them back becaused we’d displeased them.
The same happened again as soon as NG was secured when we wanted to go to Borneo – MacArthur refused the provision of transport and delayed that for a long time.
You might consider Australian efforts as a “SEA backwater” at that point – we, however, wanted to do our best to try to rescue our people, and others, in the former Dutch East Indies on Borneo as quickly as possible.
Enough WWII talk, I think.
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Mr Turnbulls comments in print
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-alternative-a-huge-saving-says-turnbull-20120417-1x5nt.html
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
guytaur @1486
Let’s hope that from now on every time Abbott has dinner with a ‘friend’ his evening will be interrupted by protestors giving him lectures and banging on windows and by staff presenting him with petitions. Let’s hope that all such future dinners get a lot more media attention than this one did.
by leone on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Just a quick cheerio to Gweneth. Hope all goes as well as it can for you.
by roaldan1000 on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:26 pm