Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dr John – doesn’t sound credible!
by al palster on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Guytaur @ 1646
But previously you posted that the media coverage represented the “victory” for the gay activists, so now no publicity at News Ltd is their achievement, since other coverage is negative to their cause. And I think if you read other posts here on the subject you might find that your view of an activist victory is a fairly lonely view. Andwhat better PR for the activists then a real live Trotskyist leading the battle – OMG.
by Mick77 on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:43 pm
guytaur
sorry rudd might not slip in obscurity – i mean he might intend to do so, but dialectic of public opinions and p-o-l-l-i-n-g-s could produce yet another turn of the narrative worm that has been playing out over last 3 years. i dont think abbot or gillard will fight the next election
by geoffrey on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:45 pm
goeffrey – your’e back.
I could not make not make head nor tail of what you were on about yesterday about all that “noble” stuff.
Are you now saying there will be a second coming with Saint Kevin arising from the dead – based on the polls?
by Tricot on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:48 pm
PM about to do presser News 24
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:54 pm
I’m off to buy some ‘green’ wine. If this bloke has taken the time to work on lowering his winery’s carbon footprint then he deserves a bit of support.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-18/carbon-neutral-winery-langhorne-creek/3958276
BTW – the Fran Kelly interview with Greg Hunt this morning seemed to knock her for a bit of a loop. Jillian Broadbent had a good discussion with FK on the Clean Energy issue and said she’d tried to meet with Robb and Hockey but had not received a reply.
Hunt virtually demanded that she pick up the phone and ring him and he’d set her right about dropping the thing until he’s had a chance to introduce his DAP after the next election. I think even FK was a bit gobsmacked at his audacity or lack of respect to Broadbent. Hunt has become too big for his boots.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Mick77
Marriage equality had fallen off the radar. This puts it back on. Even if only due to fairfax coverage. Better than no coverage. So yes a victory.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Vic,
Labor should start distancing themselves as far as possible from the Greens, by attacking them relentlessly.
GG rightly points out the 80% Labor gets back from the Greens, but Labor has lost far more to the Coalition as a result of being identified with the Greens. Labor’s working class base don’t like the Greens and until Labor abandons the Greens entirely those workers will stick with the Coalition and Labor’s primary vote will see it reduced to a minority party.
The Greens are destroying the Labor brand, to their own advantage.
by drake on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:56 pm
CTar1
Well, I may be wrong on that one. I was not implying that the Australians were trying to get their hands on the oil but that they were trying to stop the Japanese from using it. This would have been a reasonable objective had the Japanese had the means to get the stuff to the home islands. Which they did not.
If your argument is correct, we chose Singapore because we could make a difference there. That makes sense. My point is that Australian war histories, populist politicians, war mongers and popular writers routinely over egg the significance of Australia’s war efforts in the Pacific. In this context, I was making a simple factual statement: tonnage lost at Singapore to Australian action by the Japanese was an infinitismal percentage of the total tonnage lost by the Japanese in WW2. Where you want to take that fact is up to you, really.
It is similar to another set of facts: tonnage and number of of Australian warships sunk by the Japanese set against the tonnage and number of Japanese warships sunk by Australian warships. You would probably have an idea, but the average Aussie, fed pap by historians, would be shocked to know the truth.
Not at all. Regular readers will know that I have been a strong, persistent and thorough critic of Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia and, indeed, of all colonial rule. I despise it. Having been born there to a father who was a Dutch colonial soldier has certainly required some soul searching on my part.
To the extent that Australian actions helped the Indonesians gain independence, good on Australia, IMHO.
Well, CTar1, that’s a good start! We would actually agree on the nastiness of the first and dutch ‘police actions’, so that would take us back to 1948 as well…
And good day to you as well.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:57 pm
by Dee on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Dee
That is a positive development! Another country getting on board.
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Gillard now pressing IMF report.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Twiggy only worth a lousy $5-6 billion sees himself as poor, which when compared to gina or rio or billiton could be right relatively speaking.
That is the way he and Tone need to fight to MRRT, a tax on the lesser billionaires.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-18/forrest-says-he-made-mining-tax-deal-with-rudd/3958294
by castle on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Gillard: Tony Abbott has been out and about today talking our economy down even as the IMF says it is a world beater.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Dee
That was what a senior, conservative, economist was suggesting would be a way for the US to dig itself out its budgetary hole as well. Forgot his name, unfortunately.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Guytaur @1656
The only victory for you is that I may never again bother responding to your posts since every time you cop a goal, you move the posts, but anyway the game’s over with a 5-0 result in my favour.
by Mick77 on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:02 pm
castle
Are we talking about Twiggy Hood or Twiggy, Sheriff of Nottingham?
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Mick77
Yeah you tell yourself that. I have not been moving goalposts. You have because you do not want to accept the point. You want an Abbott victory and a gay activist loss.
Too bad for you. It has not worked out that way. Just as the long march of equality always is. Its a hard slog with in your face activism along the way.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Gillard: Abbott negativity costing jobs.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:10 pm
JG says that Tone’s negativity is stopping employers putting on more staff.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Good stuff, she is killin’ em in WA.
by ruawake on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:11 pm
JG is using plain language, for those of youse who want to see that.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Dee, so that makes Germany, Norway, Mexico and Italy all in a short period making enormous commitments to pricing carbon and investing in renewables. This is momentum, get out of the way you neanderthal tories
by outside left on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:13 pm
http://www.araratadvertiser.com.au/news/local/news/general/reward-offered-for-information/2523787.aspx
This kind of vandalism targeting windfarmers (mistakenly) shows how ignorant people are.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Good performance from JG. Hope she keeps it up. I wonder if the new press officer has started?
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:14 pm
A good news story about a local entrepreneur.
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/smartphone-apps/sydney-students-quest-to-save-stray-animals-from-death-bed-20120418-1x6dx.html
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:16 pm
I again despair of the PM’s tactics. Please never mention the name Abbott again if you want to make a point. She is hopeless on conveying a message even when the narrative is good. Who the hell is advising her, the same crowd that gave us East Timor solution, 150 member climate conference and the “real Julia”?
by Mick77 on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:17 pm
agree bludgers
The PM presser was good
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Were you suitably chastised by Lartika’s tweet yesterday? Think it may have hit a nerve?
by mari on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Mick77
journo asked PM about Abbott saying that the economy is in bad shape. What was she supposed to respond??
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:19 pm
I didn’t see the presser as I have just come in as my 15 year old grandson took me to lunch, which was lovely. But knowing your usual anti Julia comments assume it was a good presser?
by mari on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Dr John @ 1575
Would that be the same university as named after General Sir John Monash?
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:21 pm
The PM was stating that Tony Abbott is costing jobs and creating uncertainty, an obvious fact. I realise that Libs hate it but expect a lot more of it.
Why is the economy doing so well yet people are scared to spend?
Answer Tony Abbott and his Liberal crew.
by ruawake on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:23 pm
I also like Gillard asking the media: What country does Tony Abbott want Australia to be Greece?
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Franch Elections Sunday…a Hopeful moment
________________________________
The French elections on Sunday(first round) offer the hope of a genuine left response to the Euro crisis and a reply the relentless attacks on working people carried out by the Euro elites/bankers in Brusselsas seen on Spain.Greence and Italy
In response to the attacks on jobs,social secutiry and working conditions in France a whole new set of policies are winning support wide support
Interesting that the Socialists who will emerge with Sarkosi after the first round but without a majority will be dependeny for their likely victory on the support in the Second round of the Left Alliance which is polling a remarkable 17% in the opinion polls
and led by a former Socialist minister
The Left Alliance demands of the Socialists ,,,and is getting from them…..support for a huge tax on high incomes(over 300.000 euros there will be a 100% tax ) and a rise of 20% in the basic wage..along with a shorter working week to create jobs and a wealth tax on property and personal items of the kind Mitterand once started…a tax on holiday homes,art collections and .collections of expensive cars,etc
In the second round the Left Alliance will drop out and along with the Greems who will likely have over a million votes…will vote for the Socialists….who should get all up around 56%
Sarkosi is hampered by the vote for Le Pen’s far-right National Front who may get 15% but don’t much like Sarkosi and many won’t vote in the second round(a common feature in France)
Today former conservative President Chirac has dropped a major bombshell with a call for a vote for the Socialists and denunced Sarkosi
Chirac and his former foreign minister Villpain(who opposed Bush’ attack on Iraq)have been bitter critics of Sarkosi …and Villpain has been engaged in several court battles with Sarkosi over a number of matters.
..Villpain was denounced as the author of a story that in his early days Sarkosi was the receipient of money from the Israelis. who supported his rise ..in return Sarkosi has been a great friend.of Israel..and Villpain and Chirac has criticised this too,,,as they have criticised his closeness to the USA
All this will help to demage Sarkosi…not least with the millions of islamic voters now on the rolls…who were angered about Sarkosi and his attack on women wearing the hijad
All this may deliver a new genuinely leftist government in Franace and open up a new debate on the crisis of capitalism,…not for the first time France may open a new path
The Left Alliance says “Let’s Put Socialism back on the Agenda”
As Napoleon said”When France has a cold ..all Europe sneezes “
by deblonay on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:27 pm
More prince twiggy bw, enough money to wallow in and he cries poor.
by castle on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:27 pm
mari
It was a very good presser.
by victoria on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:27 pm
by Dee on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:29 pm
debionay 1684
From your lips etc.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Holland up but will take a second round ?
by CTar1 on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:31 pm
It seems Tony Abbott is telling fibs when he says Labor has stolen his over 50 employment payment.
His was a $3,250 payment to a business who employed someone on a Govt benefit, it was actually a saving measure in Robb speak.
Swannee’s is a $1,000 payment to a business who employs any worker over 50.
Huge difference.
by ruawake on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:32 pm
1688 Gaytur
I have no idea what your curious comment means(though I often find this the case)
by deblonay on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:34 pm
ru
I am starting to get to the point that if Tony Abbott says the sky is blue I will be getting my umbrella.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:34 pm
debionay
I will do the full quote then. From your lips to gods ears.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Of course CTar1 – it’s often entertaining to have more than one sting in a tail!
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:35 pm
The only economy Tone has a grip on is that with the truth.
by This little black duck on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Dee
‘…demand pushing power prices down…’
I assume this means that reduced demand (on account of a 23-25% unemployment rate) is pushing the prices down.
OTOH, if the demand is increasing, then wouldn’t the prices go up?
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Mari
I asked her WTF
[naughty language] was she on about?
All I asked was, Is there was anything on Wayne Swan’s presser?
She was notably touchy & didn’t respond.
Then, I had a scan back & seen you had tagged my tweet.
Never mind, her tetchy response indicated it was a deliberate ommission.
by Dee on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Drake,
I think so as well. The Greens are the elephant in the room that is being ignored and is the primary reason why Labor is polling so badly. Abbott’s tacticians know it and have used it to their advantage hence the term “Bob Brown’s bitch” and referring to Bob Brown as the real PM.
by janice2 on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Mr Bassanese in the Fin wrote an article the other day that the Liberal supporters (right now) tend to have a lower consumer confidence than Labor supporters.
I assume that would be because they are the ones who are silly enough to believe the Wackenomics of Mr Abbott & Co.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:38 pm