Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
7:30 Featuring Wollongong on story of Super losses.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Victoria, Labor should stick to its policy agenda.
Whether they negotiate with the independents or the Greens, they should act 1) in the country’s best interests and 2) their own political best interests.
How would the polls read today had an ETS, not a carbon tax, had passed both houses. No Julya for a start
If the Greens refused to pass an ETS – like I said from day 1, they tell the Greens and their action on climate change to get stuffed!
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:32 pm
mexican
What do you think has killed the Murray-Darling?
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
mb
The money and effort you are talking about would be better used making a moon colony.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Lizzie well as much as it could be better, our infrastructure and planning is in better shape than most other parts of the world and to test this one only needs to speak to people that visit this country.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:35 pm
I still haven’t worked out why we should all ring Joyce,
For she is young and free …..
Apologies to Kenny ….
by muttleymcgee on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:36 pm
I don’t know how I got a smiley when I put in an 8!
by zoomster on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Growing rice in Leeton?
by ruawake on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:36 pm
I suggest you come out and see a current “breadbasket” like the W.A. Wheatbelt to see the knife edge they are on when it commes to rainfall,salinity,acidity and how much fertiliser is needed. As for the Wet Wet Wet “North” that myth has been knocked down numerous times. Yaay, in the NT the “Wet” has uber volumes of rain for 4 or 5 months. Then nada. Problem . Nowhere to put in the required mega dams. Problem. The soils up there are well and truly rooted. Fires followed by rains to flush away the nutrients do that.
by poroti on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Lizzie
The Murray-Daring is not dead
The river system has suffered by mis-use like Cubbie Station and Rice growing in the Riverina
Adelaide ideally should not be drawing its water from the Murray Daring.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Vic,
I am reminded here of William’s statements that it is not inconceivable that the Coalition will control the Senate (I think with Xeno’s support) after the next half-election.
Just think about that for a minute. Labor placating the Greens because they “need them to pass legislation”, followed by electoral wipeout and the repeal of the very legislation they sold-out to the Greens for.
by drake on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Tricot
Forgot to say – I agree with much of what you say. Silly to attack people who are broadly on the same side.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
I think I have made my point. Economics is insane. It assumes infinite growth with finite resources. We do not yet have resources stretching from one side of the universe to the other. It is time that economists started redoing their modelling.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Spur 212
The Greens lose Labor votes to Liberal, yet do not win votes for Labor from Liberal.
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Yes Poroti and if Australia had a bigger population then the farmers would in theory have a larger market that would in turn enable them to reduce use of those areas that a marginal and would enable and I believe this has been done previously under the land-care system being implemented where farmers have been able to retire marginal land that can be returned to nature or increase the number of trees and in time it has benefited the surrounding land.
Although and I may be wrong, we don’t seem to do as much in this area than we used too
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Which I elaborated on in Crikey today.
by William Bowe on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:43 pm
mexican
The gums are dead, the fish are dead, the land is tired, the water is drying up.
At what stage do you call a river beyond hope of revival.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:44 pm
guytaur – I agree that economist are wrong to presume in endless growth, everything has limits and cycles, these natural cycles are what sometimes catches people out as we see with those that claim house prices never fall then all of a sudden prices are down 5%.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:45 pm
guytaur, there is enough oil to fill oceans of it, and enough coal to fill mountains of it.
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Lizzie it may have passed by recently western NSW was under flood but I am happy to be corrected.
Yes there are issues with I think its the Alexandra Lakes
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:47 pm
You are kidding, Abbott may not even need to call a DD.
The Greens R.I.P.
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Centre
Yet it is still finite. Thus the economists are wrong. A basic assumption wrong.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:47 pm
have been watching this conversation re. the ALP and/vs the Greens.
As far as a ‘coalition’ goes, I think the only type of coalition that works in this country is one where the junior party STFU and does as its told. Can you imagine the media in this country spending its time looking for ‘splits!’ and moments of being ‘at odds!’ etc etc between the ALP and Greens if they were in any kind of coalition. it would be a bloody nightmare to manage.
by middle man on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm
mexican
I’m pulling out of this argument because you really don’t understand the problems, obviously.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:49 pm
guytaur, the whole planet is finite
We may as well pollute this one before we need to find another one
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Lizzie
How Green like, rather than actually explain, its easier to claim
“o but you don’t understand”
And people wonder why I pick on the Greens.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Centre
Concerningly, I agree with you. All this talk about moving to the right or left tells us more about the commentator than anything. Labor needs to spell out an agenda and a “narrative”.
by Diogenes on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:52 pm
mexican
Now that’s made me angry.
You say wtte “perhaps you missed the floods”, talking down as if I’m stupid, and then retreat to accusing me of being a loony Green when I’d prefer just to back off from your silly comments about the farmers.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Australian Trade Practices Law making world decisions again. This time relating to Google Search. 730 Report
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Lizzie I apology for I never intended to call you stupid
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:55 pm
mexican
I apologise for getting angry.
by lizzie on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Centre
re: oceans of oil.
Well, no not oceans, perhaps very large lakes or one sea? But it’s not relevant. The important factor to consider here is Energy returned on Energy Invested (EROI) -as oil becomes more scarce it becomes profitable to mine oil that is less accessible. Like the Tar sands and shale oil. However, this is limited by EROI – there comes a point where it is costing you more to get the oil out that you get back.
You also need to consider whether people can actually afford (in the long term) to pay elevated costs for oil.
And lastly present economists rely on endless growth, and growth of a few percent leads to doubling of consumption every 15 years or so (there’s a simple ln equation to ocmpute this) and there is no way the world can double it’s oil output to meet that demand.
The ‘endless growth’ cycle can only end trangically.
by Astrobleme on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:56 pm
“tragically”, rather
by Astrobleme on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:58 pm
The media watch dog needs to get off its backside, and start whacking this pro coalition media propaganda stunts.
If the media wants to have opinion polls , then they should be made to include the alternative governemnt policies
by Meguire Bob on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:58 pm
I also have a piece today on WA politics in The Conversation, for those of you who like that kind of thing.
by William Bowe on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Diogs, I was right that you have lost your wRONg crown to TP
It’s unfortunate, Labor could have gone to the election with a SIMILAR policy to that supported by half the Liberals, and that Howard took to an election.
Instead Labor goes to an election with a policy Julia said she would never implement, and with the reputation as Julya because of it.
Well, if Abbott does control the Senate, the Greens deserve it!
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:00 pm
I do not think Abbott will control the Senate. A very basic reason. It was not that long ago that Howard did. People still have that fresh in their minds.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Centre
The problem lies in Rudd’s (or Labor’s) decision not to go to a DD and do whatever it is they wanted.
You can’t blame Labor’s problems on satisfying the Greens.
by Astrobleme on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Of course BK – Abbott is trying to deflect to the other 1%!
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:04 pm
News Flash , my Cr.Hajnal Black from Div. 11( I am not for quitting ) has pulled the plug on her Re-Election for Div.11, at the local pub , where all candidates had time to sell themselves .She spent all her time talking about her High Court challenge , until some bloke told her to give the real candidates time to speak and was sick of listening to her. She was using crutches ? Her mother gave the guy a good stern look as they left, if looks could kill. He will get a gypsy curse for sure .
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Astrobleme, wherever the world is in demand, supply will meet, and growth will continue.
*gotta go*
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:06 pm
So far so good. All those vibes are having an impact. Not a definite diagnosis but all the specialists agree that it looks more like ovarian cancer than anything else. Now we just need a biopsy to confirm it and the treatment will begin.
Thanks to all for the wishes, prayers and thoughts.
My vibes are heading your way too smithe if I understood correctly and you are also on the same journey.
I made some chicken soup and am resting.
I will keep lurking and may even contribute now I don’t have to go to work for a while.
gweneth.
by Gweneth on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Vomit stuff!!
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Astrobleme, they tell the Greens – floating price (ETS) or forget it!
*gone*
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:09 pm
To those suggesting that economists have no idea about the natural limits of growth I suggest you read 1972′s ‘Limits to Growth’. Just one example among many of economists dealing with this issue.
Economists are not completely stupid. Neoclassical economists come very close mind you.
But there are plenty of us that practically realise that the pursuit of endless growth is self-defeating.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
by deflationite on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:10 pm
deflationite
Now all you need is some appropriate bods to take up the talking head circuit to explian to this to the masses. The Neoclassicals are dominating at the moment. IMO.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Gweneth:
I just read your comment, and have DM’d you.
Wishing you all the best.
by confessions on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:14 pm
middleman – I can’t imagine how the Trots and Marxists who moved over to the Greens from Labor would ever accept a coalition. It might mean a breakaway extreme left group.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:14 pm
This is the Catholic line in Africa and South America – more souls for heaven!
What’s it all about Alfie?
by Dr John on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:14 pm
shiftaling @ 1851
Appreciate your feedback
The lurkers – the PB silent majority – are who I direct my posts to.
by Pegasus on Apr 18, 2012 at 8:15 pm