Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
You never stated why you disagreed. You introduced red herrings about ministerial positions and Greens at state level when that was never the intended discussion.
And what state are you based in? Are you in SA?
by confessions on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Thanks Bemused
In my own way, it’s what I thought might be the case
F
by Fil R on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:56 pm
I forgot to put in the answer to the question, ‘How long did Mr Hill say that we would be in Afghanistan for when we committed troops there back in 2001?’
A couple of months.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:57 pm
A COMPLETE AND UTTER TOOL IS KENTUCKY JOE.
He’s in favour of means-testing, but he can’t think of any entitlement that should be means tested, including the private health insurance rebate.
Now making up some cockamamie system where spending money on subsidized health is really good because it save the public hospital system. Or something.
This must have sounded great to Joe when he was sitting on the toilet dreaming it up.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Dan Gulberry @ 2119
Well said!
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Really guys and gals, you NEED to watch this on LL.
This is our supposed future Treasurer talking.
An absolute idiot.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58 pm
confessions
Go read again. You will see I did not do that. Others will go back and look you can be sure.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Horsey, the problem is you. You are so far behind, you aint gonna catch the Black Caviar.
by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:59 pm
I reckon poor Joe has actually been saying, in a roundabout way, that the Oz economy is pretty good. In other respects he has got himself into a bit of a tangle but Jones is now letting him off the hook a little.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
For those who do not click on links – the one paragraph that confessions omitted from Waters media release:
A reasonable request, imo.
by Pegasus on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Bemused 2141 was well said too!
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
So Sloppy wants to end my entitlement to my Swedish AU PAIR, fuck him i say
by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Wow, The Drum on ABC24 is going great guns! Viewing audience last night per crikey media info –
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:01 pm
I think the Tony Jones arguementative style has got Hockey on the ropes
Joe compares Australia to Hong Kong which pays 17% tax and has no social service that means must pay fees to attend school, no pensions, must pay for health care. He wants to keep diesel, four wheel drive and private health insurance subsidies
by billie on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:01 pm
I wonder how many interviews Swannie is lining up to respond to this Hockey Ll interview? When he stops laughing of course.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Good night all.
by Boerwar on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Presumably they must pay for their nannies too, and at a guess I’d say their government doesn’t pay them their salaries in full for having babies.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:06 pm
The Finnigans
U really need to own your problems instead of denying your condition and blaming others
by Pegasus on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Agree Hockey was in usual buffoon mode but Jones let him sprout crap which is superficially appealing to the punters. The most damaging was his multiple repeating of the current big Liberal lie that ‘interest rates are higher than what they should be because the Government is borrowing $100m per day’. Jones was p..weak not calling this as rubbish.
by CO on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:07 pm
BHP fired workers at a Qld minestite last week and replaced them with workers on 457 skilled migration visas this week. Really Labor should not have issued those visas
BHP ‘doing a Dubai’ with mine closure: union
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3480491.htm
by billie on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:09 pm
CU later
by Pegasus on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:10 pm
CO
Sounds to me like an “enough rope” interview.
by guytaur on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Quoting a feel good para from Waters’ press release still doesn’t answer the questions I posed.
Do today’s Greens have any answers to the questions I posed, or are you happy taking Greens pressers at face value with no jaundiced eye (yes I recognise the irony) being cast upon your MPs’ responses?
No response to criticism? Really? Bob Brown is already feeling his departure.
by confessions on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:11 pm
2167
Hong Kong has cheaper nannies because they have lots of immigrants who come to be nannies. There is a case in the Hong Kong Courts about whether or not nanies can get permanent residency in Hong Kong.
by Tom the first and best on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:12 pm
The word “laughable” is often used here to describe Joe Hockey, but in this case I was literally laughing out loud.
He thinks the Grey Nomads are going to lap this up, that they’re so dumb they won’t get that they’re the ones with targets on their foreheads and Joe is taking careful aim.
Sack some public servants!
Yayyyyy!
Crack down on the unions!
Yayyyyy!
Ban overtime!
Yayyyyy!
Attack dole bludgers!
Yayyyyy!
Means test the Health Care Rebate!
Uhm…
No baby bonus!
Er….
Cancel the full tilt PPL scheme
Well…
No Subsidized Nannies!
Just a cotton-pickin’ minute there…
Wind back the pension!
We worked hard for that…
ITS THE END OF THE AGE OF ENTITLEMENT!!!
F**k off Joe.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Centre and Bemused
Are either of you economists?
by Jolyon Wagg on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm
no, they dont get it
by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm
billie @ 2170
Well, after being in furious disagreement with you a few days ago, I am now in furious agreement.
The full wrath of the government should now descend on BHP-Biliton and executives should be held personally to account. In a just world that would mean gaol time but I fear it won’t.
457 visas are an absolute rort and as soon as one loophole is closed another is found.
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Joe did himself no favours
Buffoon is right.
Hong Kong. Betcha they will all love than
Hmmmmmmmm these libs are more bonkers than I had thought (other than the mad monk)
by daretotread on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:17 pm
sprocket #2121, yes the CJ in good form too.
I do hope that Nicola when talking about broadening the pool for selection of HC justices isnt going to stray too far from what has been working well in recent times. Please, no direct appointments from academia in particular.
This is a very strong court and just look at it – French, Gummow, Crennan, Kiefel all with prior Federal Court experience; and Hayne, Bell and Heydon all with prior State appeals court experience. Several of them have outstanding backgrounds as academics but none were appointed solely on that basis.
Same goes for appointments straight from the bar. Even a Brett Walker should I think do some time on his P plates in a state appeals court or the Federal Court. Shield games before test matches.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:18 pm
ha ha ha Horsey, i am just getting warmup.
But as usual, when the kitchen gets hot, like a good Horsey you cut & run.
by The Finnigans on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Jolyon Wagg @ 2176
I hold a BEc but have not worked as an economist.
I hope you are not lumping me in with Centre as we are on opposite sides on this.
Read my posts carefully. I am certainly not in the unlimited growth camp.
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:19 pm
God help us all, a few of the large broking firms have upgraded ASX code BHP to a buy!
Why?
Because the Greens are right, that’s right, the Greens are right!
Resources are finite. The price of oil, coal, iron ore, copper, everything is going to explode. Shortage of supply will boost the price of resources to astronimcal levels.
But NOW!
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Has much as I pick on the great waste known as Job Services Australia but in truth governmetn needs to be involved in welfare for it is a massive part of its core business, if Hockey is not interested in welfare systems then he should be in a different business.
Again I do wonder if modern Liberals have any idea as to their actual function. Both Bent, Swinburne, Bolte, Deakin, Hamer and Menzies all knew that a Liberal was about wealth creation though government investment.
Even Jeff understood it but today we loo at Canberra and see over educated suits that have never run a business claiming to know what a Liberal is.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:20 pm
BB – Tony resorted to form when he let Joe finish with the high level of government spending has made it more expensive for ANZ to operate hence the ANZ had to increase in interest rates and the government debt levels are killing us meme without challenge.
Can Wayne do a forensic demolition of Joe’s stuff ups against and interruptive and hostile media.
I want to see the photo of Tony Abbott dining with HSU’s Kathy Jackson, you have been saying that Sheridan is Abbott’s shill and the picture proves it
by billie on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Nature will likely find a way to resolve the over-population and finite resources problems one day. A comet or a superbug are the more likely suspects.
by davidwh on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Recently I have been paying close attention to stock prices and the likes of BHP and Rio have been dropping at a rabid rate yet I keep hearing that we are in a boom.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Jones on Lateline did OK I thought.
He just supplied plenty of rope and Joe got busy hanging himself. Why interrupt a good hanging?
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Goodnight all.
by bemused on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Heading off for the night, but saw this re Assange’s new venture (not sure if already posted). The Guardian is not impressed:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/17/world-tomorrow-julian-assange-wikileaks
F
by Fil R on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Joe was sweating like a pig. Did I really hear him admit briefly that the Howard Govt. spent unwisely on entitlements? I know he started to say a bit more but realised and changed tack quickly.
I agree with BB – everyone should read or watch it. Joe is not Treasurer material.
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Bemused you obviously do really lack comprehension skills.
I believe that where ever demand for a good or service exists, the economy will find ways through innovation, technology and greater knowledge to supply it.
I do not want to be bracketted with you on knowledge of economics or most definitely markets believe me.
The day we experience peak resources, the market will have moved long before.
*night*
Save it Dr John, the coward makes sledging comments when I’m not here
by Centre on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:29 pm
I think the most potentially damaging thing Hockey said was that to compete with Asia we need to lower both our taxes and our welfare safety nets down closer to those of the Asian countries.
In other words we need to create a bigger under class so that we can give more to the well off, just as they do in Asia. And this according to Hockeynomics is how you empower people.
All I can say is I hope he is stupid enough to take that policy to the election.
by Darn on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Night all
by BH on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Re One Nation and the Katters
__________________
While Katter is a very different case to the One Nation phenomena,it is said that the Katter vote in Queensland was strong in many places where One Nation party polled well
One has to realise that One nation was linked to the very strong personality of Hanson who if one remembers at the time,had a short but remarkable run in the media…few policies,but appeals to predjudices and a barely concealed rascism,combined with a striking physical presence
Katter seems more like the old country party in his appeal to protectionist policies(some of which many people find attractive…like his appeals for taxes on imported foods,and a tough line with the Big Two supermarket chains)
The polls at the time showed Hanson’s support was strongest among older men and women,in small towns,drawn for lower-income and less educated groups
I suspect Katter does have the same kind of support…strong the further from Brisbane you go
These people fear they have left behind in the “free m arket” economy and don’t like the whole idea of globalisation and all that implies..
It’s said by several writers overseas.that people attacted to fundamentist religion come from the same territory..whether it’s US “Christers “or Moslem groups in Egypt or Jewish settler- groups on the West Bank
So these people are politically without their anchors and lost in a todal wave of social change…and resent much going on around them…so Katter or Hanson seem like friends
to them
by deblonay on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Ian @ 2061 – in a word awesome
your words somehow seem to capture the escence
of this parliamentary period in time.
Just sometimes a special post comes along …
recommend everyone go back and read this ……….
If I could quote a large part …….
Great words Ian f$%kin awesome !
and at a good time
Was sorta losing hope with this government …….. hey maybe there is still hope …….
trying to find the right tune to link
hope this is it …….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hzrDeceEKc
by craigsok on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:35 pm
Very well put bemused. Sums it up beautifully.
by Darn on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:35 pm
Eye of the beholder and all that, but I generally find Ian’s posts inspirational. I fully support Doyley’s take.
Ian can use as many words as he likes as far as I’m concerned.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:39 pm
You did indeed hear that BH – and I’m sure it won’t win him any popularity with members of his own party.
by Darn on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Centre
It is clear you have no idea what growth ACTUALLY means.
I’ll post it yet again, but it is a very imprtant concept.
Growing anything at 2% a year, a modest growth means that it doubles in size every 35 years…
Isaac asimov did some quick calculations to show that if humans increase their population, at a lower rate, doubling every 45 years we would conert the entire mass of the Universe into Humans in about 6500 years.
It will only take us some 624 years to convert the biomass of the Earth into Humans.
You simply do not understand how growth works. It’s a pretty easy piece of maths. You simply use the rule of ’70′, so you divide 70 by the growth rate to calculate how fast it doubles. So growing at 5% means you double every 14 years.
You claim that ‘growth’ can take place in otheer ways, for example computing power etc. BUT no human growth has taken place without a corresponding growth in energy. It has never happened. It cannot continue to happen.
If our economy grows at 4%, we will double our demand for power every 17.5 years… So we need twice as many power plants in 17.5 years, then 4 times as many in 35 years, then 8 times in 52.5 years… Simply unsustainable.
Endless growth is simply insane.
by Astrobleme on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:43 pm