Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
poroti/2397
They have probably found some pixies
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:06 am
2GB, 2UE and ? but enough for him to get more coverage than the PM.
by BH on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:07 am
Mowanjum, an indigenous community a stone’s throw from the thriving mining hub of Derby, WA, is in crisis with six suicides in six months.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/our-communities-in-crisis-20120418-1x7ef.html
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:07 am
Roaldan agree we need to talk about the issue raised by Hockey as we have been skirting around the problems of funding an increasing welfare bill and an ageing population for a long time. However when someone like Hockey raises the issue he needs to be better prepared to explain than he was last night.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:08 am
Only 3 Journos at the Presser for Abbott. Does this mean the Press pack is tiring of Abbott pressers?
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:08 am
They are all in Perth guytaur
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:10 am
Martin has become an ally of employers because he is focused totally on jobs.
He doesn’t care about climate change, other pollution, etc or what the jobs are.
by CTar1 on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:11 am
That guy from Zarraffas can’t be too worried as he said his business was in expansion mode. The Carbon Price is coming in the future where his future expansion exists in parallel with the Carbon Price.
As always, watch what people do, not what they say!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:11 am
Another article on Mowanjum:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/cry-for-help-as-suicides-soar-20120418-1x7ov.html
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:11 am
That is because they are reporters, not journalists.
“reporter” comes from the Latin reportare meaning “to carry back.” No analytical element there, nor one of questionning.
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:11 am
A chilling recollection first-hand of the Rudd coup
and then this…
http://www.themonthly.com.au/kevin-rudd-coup-any-other-name-rhys-muldoon-4668
by bluegreen on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:12 am
He obviously didn’t get the memo that the jobs of the future will be very much reliant on the manner in which we deal with climate change NOW.
by Danny Lewis on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:13 am
I wrote yesterday about how Abbott has been forced to agree with the NDIS and immediately claimed it does not belong to any one party as it is bipartisan and beyond politics wtte.
So a fantastic ALP success suddenly doesn’t belong to any party just because the turd was forced to agree with it.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:14 am
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/xenophon-wants-bill-to-forced-major-fuel-retailers-to-disclose-prices-to-motoring-bodies/story-e6freuy9-1226333051847
The Terrors big political story.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:16 am
Still no Joe Hockey. News Limited fail.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:17 am
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:19 am
davidwh
Posted Thursday, April 19, 2012 at 10:36 am
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/16/newspoll-and-essential-research-56-44-to-coalition/comment-page-48/#comment-1221119
Repeating something by rote is not such a big deal. I taught my seven-year-old to spell elephant the other day. Now he can recite the letters without the need for conscious thought.
Apparently horses can be taught to ‘communicate’ numbers by representation with a series of taps on the ground with their hoof.
It’s amazing what warm-blooded creatures can be taught.
Independent MP, Tony Windsor, observed about Abbott staying on message:
Their ABC, 05 July 2011
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/07/05/3261392.htm?section=justin
It is when Abbott is required to GO BEYOND the learned three-word slogans that he gets into trouble, as the following video demonstrates:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABtlI2Wk3Ws
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:22 am
Pulling out of Afghanistan.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:24 am
Other day DG linked parody of song by this singer Goyte. I noted at the time that he attended the same Christian bros school as Andrew Robb which happens to be in my area.
As goyte was a local boy, i am a little chuffed!!
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:26 am
This little black duck
Even if they are just messengers when told out and out shite they owe it to the public to enquire further. To ascertain if the speaker really did claim the shite was true or if they had just misunderstood what was said.All in the interest of ensuring that their “report” is accurate of course.
by poroti on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:26 am
I wonder who the ‘policy makers’ are? Joe’s website tells us where – An ‘INISTITUTE’
It’s a conservative think tank.
http://www.powerbase.info/index.php/Institute_of_Economic_Affairs
Just an example
So Joe’s doing a ‘Talcum’ – tapping the taxpayer on the shoulder so he can go O/S, make a speech and get some attention …
I bet if he’d delivered it to the IPA here it would have got bugger all press coverage.
by CTar1 on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:26 am
victoria – David Bradbury was good on Agenda this morning and he said somehow the news reports this morning had left off the last few words from the PM, ‘if they choose to’ so it’s interesting that Sabra Lane has chosen to add them this time.
Every commentator I heard this morning made the comment that the PM was hassling the RBA and some said she was a hypocrite for not hassling the FWA in the same way.
by BH on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 am
cuppa,
The interview with Mark Riley demonstrates your point far better.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUdPabnXUNA
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 am
Bluegreen @2410,
Boring old rehash of second hand ” he said she said.”
The writer of that article talks about “the last thing she had said to Rudd, as she left his office, was ….. ” and “…walked back into Rudds office and said ..”
Three people were in the office during the discussions. Rudd, Gillard and Faulkner.
Gillard and Faulkner would not have spoken to the author. So, how does he know exactly what was said ? Who is the only one left ?
There is more than one side to every story. Believe what you like, that is up to you but to pretend that what the author has reported is gospel without him even being present is a step too far.
Time for all to move on.
by Doyley on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
Cuppa you conveniently only re-posted the first part of the sentence and ignored the second part which put the first part in context.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/gotyes-somebody-that-i-used-to-know-tops-us-billboard-charts/story-e6frg8n6-1226333053070?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAustralianNewsNDM+%28The+Australian+%7C+News+%7C%29
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
G[ABCNews24 Coming Up: PM @JuliaGillard is expected to speak to the media in the next 15 minutes.
3 minutes ago]
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:29 am
DavidWH
Of course it was!
Shifting the goalposts or ignoring reality?
Which?
by muttleymcgee on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30 am
RHYS MULDOON?
I don’t supposed anyone has bothered to ask him from whom he received the SMS and why that person would send the information through to a Play School presenter. Did Justine Clarke get one as well, or Jai Laga’aia?
The other question to ask is, if he was in receipt of this information, why he has said nothing until now?
RIIIIGHT. So she stood in his doorway and said that – loudly enough for anyone walking past to hear – when, at the time, there was NO INFORMATION leaking out of Parliament House with regard to what was going on.
This from Rhys Muldoon, who spends every hour of every day on Twitter, giving us his blow-by-blow description of the world around him. For nearly 2 years, though, he’s been silent on this, the most important thing to have happened in Australian politics since the Dismissal.
But I repeat; why is this coming out NOW?
Australia gets another “world’s best economy” write-up, Hockey’s & Abbott’s response are pathetic and it seems Labor are finally going to get some good publicity and out comes Rudd and his minions, pissing on the government’s tree.
I’ve had enough of the bloody prat Rudd and his fanboys. They need to collectively get over themselves.
by Danny Lewis on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:31 am
I think the PM is going with good politics to ride along with good policy re the budget surplus.
The coalition go on and on about huge debt meaning interest rates are rising. If the RBA drops the rate and the banks follow to some degree this puts a dent in their argument.
If debt is so bad how come the rates are coming down ?
by Doyley on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:32 am
He has always been an ally of the coal industry.
The workers and residents in Gippsland understand the need for a just transition to a low-carbon future.
6 June 2011: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/valley-at-coalface-plans-for-change-20110605-1fnh9.html#ixzz1sRdPs6pY
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:32 am
DL
And of course according to bg. Chilling stuff!! Yeah right, thousands of people died. Oh the horror of it all!!!
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:36 am
GG,
Yeh, Abbott’s “Shit Happens” breakdown with Mark Riley is a good one alright. It would have to be one of the Top Political Gaffes of all time, in my opinion. Easily above Mark Latham’s ‘handshake’ incident and Downers’ “the things that batter”.
It’s interesting how other huge gaffes of Abbott’s also get downplayed. For example, that press conference when he said, not 1, 2 or 3 times, but FOUR TIMES:
He’d obviously premeditated and rehearsed it. A despicable comment, when you consider its usual context.. But the incident was allowed to sink with barely a trace…
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:38 am
Something to keep an eye out for:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/6766294/Robot-prostitutes-the-future-of-sex-tourism
by shellbell on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:41 am
Barnaby Joyce on the ocupational hazard of being verballed by journalists. Very funny!
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/babybonus-brouhaha-became-a-brainteaser-20120418-1x7fh.html
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:44 am
davidwh,
This is the part I quoted:
This is the remainder of the sentence which (for the sake of brevity and succinctness) I did not quote:
I did make the point that the moment Abbott strays off message HE TOO BLUNDERS. Badly:
So I can’t see what your point of contention is. He’s basically a trained slogan reciter (nothing remarkable about that), who falls in a heap when he’s forced out of his comfort zone.
You could almost drag any bogan in off the street and train them to do what Abbott does.
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:45 am
Muttley neither it was included in the original post.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:46 am
If I had the time I would like to create an alternative to the BISONs that would paint a different picture of what is the reality for many people in our society.
This list would include such statistics as -105,000 Australians are homeless on any given night.
Source: http://www.homelessnessaustralia.org.au/site/index.php
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:47 am
I wonder how all this media spin is affecting Minister Conroy’s temperament.
I think an real watchdog for the media is coming one with real ferocious teeth.
Not a government telling the media what to do. An independent watchdog like every other industry has. To stop the spin and bias towards one side of politics. A very very unhealthy practice in a democracy.
The press are certainly not helping their cause at the moment.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:48 am
I am inclined to burst out in song:
Oh Danny Boy, the Rudds, the Rudds are callin’
From Therese to Jess and down the mountain side,
Kevin is gone, but the bloody prats are not dyin’
‘Tis you, ’tis you must go and I must bide.
by The Finnigans on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:49 am
Horsey, learn to love the BISONs. If you behave yourself they wont stampede you.
by The Finnigans on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:51 am
It is well documented that certain sections of the economy are struggling due to the high AUD, such as manufacturing, which in turn places pressure on jobs.
The AUD must fall! The only way to lower the value of the AUD, other than to slow the economy, is to lower interest rates.
The problem for the Reserve bank in lowering interest is that it may create inflationary pressures in the economy.
Therefore, to enable the Reserve to loosen monetary policy, the government MUST tighten fiscal policy.
It is imperative that not only should the government deliver a budget surplus given the conditions of the global economy, it MUST deliver a budget surplus to enable the Reserve to move on interest rates. The mail is that the Reserve will next cut rates by 25 basis points.
By the way, here are the Greens claiming that a surplus is not a necessary factor. The Greens would be well advised to ZIP… on all issues that involve $.
by Centre on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:52 am
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abuse-as-a-child-linked-to-longer-term-homeless-20120418-1x7hx.html
It’s always easier to blame the victim
Info on the longitudinal study: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/LSAVH/Attachment_A_Fieldwork_Specs.pdf
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:53 am
Yeah, and the way Rudd was marched through the streets at gunpoint and thrown in jail—-oh, wait….
by rishane on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:53 am
Pegasus
Don’t dis the BISONs . How far north of 105,000 would the figure be without them ?
by poroti on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:55 am
So this is what a $200,000 donation buys.
by BH on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:55 am
I’m beginning to think Rudd is using a fair whack of his wife’s money to pay a bunch of fan boys. Whenever it looks as if the Ruddstoration thing has finally been buried up pops another chattering squirrel with a whole bunch of ‘he said she said’ gossip aimed at stirring it all up again. I wouldn’t put it past him.
Are we seriously meant to believe that Rhys Muldoon is some sort of Labor insider with clearance to lurk outside the PM’s office just because he once helped Kev write a kids’ book? What next? Will we be seeing the vet who gives Jasper and Abbey their annual shots as a regular on The Drum?
by leone on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:56 am
The salient point I picked up from Hockey’s interview was this:
In other words Spain should cut out welfare payments to people and give it to corporates instead,
There you have it, the LNP in a nutshell.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:57 am
The SMH comments section on the article reporting Joe Hockey’s speech has “gone off” 725 comments already. Comments running very much against Joe.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockey-blasts-attitude-of-entitlement-20120418-1x7zs.html
by poroti on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:58 am
Three historians who have recently written books exposing myths about Australian military history:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/historians-argue-the-anzac-legend-is-more-pork-pies-than-bully-beef-20120418-1x7pr.html
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:59 am