Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
A send up of The Poorest Band in the World.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwPHy17Iu6E
by Dee on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:53 am
Victoria being one of the usual suspects my concern is that Abbott will be our next PM because Labor is incapable of addressing their internal problems and it is now likely too late to do anything about it. In fact Labor seems unable to even admit it has any problems which can’t miraculously disappear on 1 July when the carbon legislation commences.
by DavidWH on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:56 am
Boerwar
In that case, I see fit to award you a gold star for your predictions re Rudd.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:57 am
SK
Sounds to me like your family would love to see the crims removed from profiting in the drug trade.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:58 am
guytaur,
Hell yes. I know they have asked their son and daughter (both adults) to move out until it settles down.
by Space Kidette on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:59 am
The ALP is to blame for the position the Federal Government finds itself in the Polls. The ALP is not defending itself as hard as it should. Why is it that the ALP is not calling out the Coalition as the liars they are in every policy they talk about? Why are they not calling out that the Coalition is UnAustralian in their attitude to the NBN, mining Tax, the Carbon Price? Now Abbott wants to take the credit for the Disability Insurance.
The ALP is totally soft on criticising the Coalition. There are severe differences in the Coalition on just about all its policies.
Oh, and the Greens are doing to the ALP as the DLP did in the 50′s and 60′s. Although 80% of their preferences go back to the ALP the middle ground voters don’t like the Greens and they will stay, reluctantly with the Coalition. The only hope is for the ALP to win over enough of those middle ground voters to nullify the Greens and be able to Govern in it’s own right. Or the Greens to form a coalition with the ALP and give up the idea to win Government in its own right.
But first the ALP has to call out the LNP for what they are, that’s all the LNP not just Abbott.
by Muskiemp on Apr 17, 2012 at 9:59 am
http://www.smh.com.au/national/minorities-fear-their-cultures-smeared-by-reports-of-domestic-violence-20120416-1x3qs.html
by Pegasus on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:00 am
The statement from the RBA about why they kept rates on hold in April basically said “we would have lowered them but we just wanted to wait on the next inflation data just to be sure” … all indications are that they should have lowered interest rates then, and if the data continues to point in that direction over the next 2 weeks they really will have no choice but to lower interest rates in May, based solely on what is happening now without even considering the upcoming budget.
I think the RBA goofed last time, and that’s despite thinking that in general they’ve done a fantastic job. The government is cutting $40 billion of spending in the May budget, and the RBA are sitting around worrying about overheating in the economy? Crazy stuff in my opinion.
by Jackol on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:00 am
Could be an interesting debate on drugs at the next National ALP Conference.
We will have to wait until then because the PM Has ruled out of hand changing the tactics on drugs. She is happy to keep the Nixon model.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:01 am
CTar1
The Moran sons both killed. Their father and uncle killed. The mother in jail for colluding to kill the uncle. Not sure if there is anyone else left!!
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:01 am
Question is how do we make drugs a worthless commodity?
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:03 am
Nor for L-NP & Abbott, who have stalemated for months. Given the extent & unpopularity of the Government reform-agenda passed by the Parliament during that stalemate (esp Carbon Pricing & MRRT), that is not good news for L-NP & Abbott.
Meanwhile, L-NP has ramped up its attack on Craig Thompson – to little or no avail. Boats have continued to arrive, but seemingly the issue has lost its scare-factor.
Abbott has continued his media stunts & mouth-offs, released some “policies” that have lead-ballooned with Business and hardly moved the electorate. More interestingly, though OpPolls have registered improvement in the Opposition’s ratings on key voter concerns, it’s had no real (ie outside MoE) impact on the 2PP.
It’s as if the electorate is waiting to see where things go from here. What’s in the budget & how will it affect individuals? How will CP compo affect voters? How will greatly-raised tax thresholds for low-income families & others affect voters? How will MRRT-driven reforms & raised Superannuation affect voters? Who will win HCA challenges?
This time next year, if OpPolls haven’t moved, maybe I’ll start worrying. Maybe. Meanwhile, I’ll remember what Howard’s OpPolls were like in 98, 01 & 04, even after the election was called, when he was losing to Labor!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:04 am
Classic job of projection, DavidWH, that Liberals are becoming famous for.
by joe2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:04 am
Out walking the dog at the beach this morning I had a conversation with a 30ish guy who had been on the dole for an extended period.
Whilst attempting a ‘conversion’ to the Labor cause he replied that he was not entitled to carbon price compensation as a dole recipient and that stinks because age pensioners etc will.
Was he right. Could a PBer assist?
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:04 am
joe2
I noticed that comment from David too. The Libs and Nats have really serious issues as well, but of course, it is Labor with all the problems
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:06 am
victoria
The best that can be done is to take out the hyper inflation, associated with criminalising drugs.
That profit fuels the violence over market control and the cost of policing. Including the cost of policing the police to prevent corruption.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:06 am
It is a pity the polls have not picked up a bit and given a bit of a boost to progressive voter, but there you are.
The doom sayers have been predicting the demise of the current Labor government since 2010 and yet, it is still there.
Conventional wisdom now has it, as one of Delroy’s listeners said last night, that the “Liberals will take Labor apart at the next election”. This may well be so as this is how democracy works.
I am not as pessimistic as that.
How many times in the past have I seen Labor ahead 59-41 – closer to the polls than we are today, and yet as the election approaches the movement goes 56-44, 54-46, 52-48, 50-50 and then sort of 51-49 with Labor having lost like about 9% in just weeks before a poll?
The pundits tend to acknowledge this but they cover themselves by saying “things are different this time”.
“This time” no leader has been so far behind, no party has ever been down in the polls for so long and come back, no leader has ever been so unpopular and so on.
What is clear is that we are in circumstances the Oz electorate has not been in for 70 years and by and large, the electorate don’t like it. While the situation is of their making, they like to vote a party in – even with a large majority – and let them get on with it and allow themselves to bitch against the very party they vote in.
The electorate then operates the Tall Popply gig, and has pleasure in cutting the winning party down to size at the next election or one subsequent to it.
Labor’s real problem is that there are not any really threatening issues. Interest rates are low, unemployment is low, prices are relatively stable – all of which gives the electorate time to worry/bitch about stuff normally they would not think twice about.
The whole Thompson thing would not get a second glance if Labor had a majority of 15 say. It would be all part of the electorates understanding that sometimes politicians are less than perfect.
Contrast today the very news today that a new Minister of Police was actually driving without a licence. It is not that he is gone now, but that he should never have been considered for the job. Barely a ripple in Queensland.
Take also the fact that a Liberal SA Senator was actually found guilty of shop lifting.
The electorate expects this as par for the course.
At the end of the day, Labor has a missing 6% of the Primary vote.
How to get this 6%, maybe 8% back is the trick.
It has not shown any tendency yet, to head home. It currently resides with the conservatives, the Greens and Other.
A clue was when there was some possibility that Rudd could come back – the primary in the polls increased for Labor.
Now, as unpalatable as it is to many on the progressive side, I don’t think the electorate has forgiven Labor – yet – for axing Rudd. The electorate – rightly or wrongly – felt it was up to them to decide the fate of the government. And, yes, there was an election in 2010 and I would surmise that the conservatives would have won with anybody else other than Abbott.
On top of this is the millstone of “the Lie”.
No amount of white washing here can change the electorate perceptions – aided by the right-wing media and the conservatives that they were, if not lied to, “mislead” by intentions to do with the carbon tax.
There are no easy answers for Labor at the moment.
One thing they can do is govern. This is the right thing and proper thing to continue.
If at the end of this, Labor has given it its best shot, well so be it.
Losing office for Labor has been on the cards since Day One of this government in August 2010.
by Tricot on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:07 am
OPT@261
i agree with you. I will be worried if the polls are bad this time next year. If they are, I believe JG will step aside for someone else.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:07 am
Dr John
Tell him to vote Greens 1 Milne is talking of raising Newstart, and give preference to Labor.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:07 am
Tricot
Fair assessment
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:09 am
http://www.afr.com/p/national/tobacco_case_plain_but_not_simple_8f1mXTewqqzSF71TSNWgPL
longer feature article
by Leroy on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:10 am
Re: drive by shootings in Sydney – it’s hard not to see the shooting spree as an attention getting exercise like graffiti but with that frisson of guns – sticking it to the man, getting thrills from feeling they are making the police out to be helpless/hopeless. I doubt that most of the shootings have had anything to do with inter-gang “messages” – they’ve been too random, undirected, firing at the wrong houses etc. Maybe people peripheral to the real gangs with access to weapons but no real “operational involvement”.
I can’t see much of a solution that doesn’t involve a massive Big Brother response, but I would say the media coverage is not helping. Every “OMGz more shootings in x and y and z” just gives the perpetrators a little thrill every day, rewarding them for their pissant, potentially life threatening activities.
by Jackol on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:10 am
Victoria same goes with the Liberals and “the liar, liar” claim when their party lied to us, twice, on reasons to go to war, for instance. Classic projection.
by joe2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:10 am
Well put Victoria and I see another PB has outed himself as a usual suspect, why I though he was seeing the light?
CTar1 (219) You are right
Off now as visitors are up and want breakfast
by mari on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:11 am
jackol,
I agree with your sentiments. However, whether you agree or not, the RB has been transparent with their reasoning and, as you say, they have a pretty good record .
Economists like Koukoulas are factoring in 0.50 drop in May and another 0.50 by early next year. How much the Banks are prepared to pass on may have been part of the decision of the RB. The ANZ went with an 0.06 increase the other day.
The RB may also be worried about inflationary impact of tax cuts and the generous compensation of the CEP changes ie. $250 for pensioners, tax cuts and FT increases that are coming up in the next few weeks.
The fact that Swan has confirmed the Government is going all out for a surplus may encourage the RB to cut interest rates to stimulate growth later in the year.
I’ve not expected the polls to move significantly until after July. People are basically saying they won’t believe things will get better until they get better. The combination of all the changes above is going to inject around $300-400 a month in to family budgets.
That will have to ease the squeeze and make voters more amenable to the government.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:15 am
next couple of hours busy fed politics
keep eye on news services
First up is Abbott
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:15 am
Chunder-inducing stuff from Reith. It’s all about how the government cannot produce a surplus, even when they do. It’ll be all smoke and mirrors, plus high tax.
Can they do anything right? School halls, pink batts and set-top boxes are enough to answer that.
I wonder why The Drum lets clear hacks like this loose on its pages.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3953120.html
One thing I will give Reith: he has a rare chutzpah, an ability to sound utterly confident while spouting the most arrant nonsense. Kentucky Joe is good at it too, as is Robb, but Reith is a genius bullshitter.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:17 am
Its all about saving seats now, aka like Queensland. Lolly pops, handuts, promised etcjust to save seats and Shorten, Smith etc
by Suzanne Blake on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:21 am
Dee@250
Send up of poorest band was a crack up! Hilarious!!
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:21 am
Muskiemp
How so?
The Greens have always been a separate party, unlike the DLP who were formed as a result of a split in the ALP.
Unlike the DLP, the Greens are not exercising influence by directing all their supporters to give their preferences to the Coalition in order to help keep Labor out of office.
Meaning is ambiguous. Do u mean that Labor need to give up the idea of winning Government in its own right, or ru referring to the Greens here?
If the latter – Why? The Greens are a political party in their own right with their own policy platform just as the ALP are.
by Pegasus on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:22 am
BB,
Frankly, what Reith and co say now is irrelevant in the longer run.
All the reporting will be about the Budget bottom line and most people will only care that they have achieved it. Those that say they don’t believe the Government, don’t believe them whatever.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:23 am
GG
Dr John asked earlier if Those on unemployment benefits get compo for carbon pricing. Do you know if they do?
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:23 am
BB
He would be. Except people see him and they see two things. Black dogs on wharves and the Liberals own found guilty of misusing phone cards.
Btw. Thought it was excellent to see questions about a fair trial, innocent till proven guilty and laughter at Pyne for asserting he believes Thomson innocent till proven guilty on Q and A last night. These tactics are sticking to Abbott and show up in his dissapproval ratings.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:25 am
Victoria
This time next year will be a lot too late to settle in a new leader. There will be no honey moon for a new leader because it is a second term government. Additionally finding a good leader willing to lead to an electoral loss will not be easy.
Xmas this year is the absolute latest that there could be a switch – ie 9 months of leadership although you could possibly leave it to early Feb, but traditionally the Xmas break gives settle in time.
I do not think they will change leaders now unless polling shows a Qld style loss. Then they will panic and ask Julia to go.
by daretotread on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:27 am
Dr John
Those on the dole will get an extra $219 a year carbon price compensation – a tiny fortnightly increse, but still some help. All the bloke on the beach needed to do to find out about what he would get is go online and google.
I keep saying this – it’s about time the government got out and told everyone what they will receive as compensation. We hear a lot about what pensioners will get, but nothing about all the others on some sort of Centrelink payment. Every day we get gloom and doomn ‘you’re all gunna go broke’ lies from Abbott and his lackeys and the government does nothing to counter this. No wonder they are polling badly.
People are dumb, they believe all the lies without question if they hear them often enough and never hear the truth.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:31 am
Victoria,
Wash your mouth out with soap
I love you to bits but I really wish you wouldn’t say things like that. JG will not be standing aside because of some airy-fairy polls. She will take them on because she knows the alternative is pure rat shite and no matter who leads Labor, the result will be the same. Que sera sera, and the voters will get their just desserts.
by janice2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:31 am
Apply the Zurich programme: decriminalisation, and supervised administration to registered addicts.
Drugs’ real toll is less drug takers than the massive % of the population affected by the drug-taking of others: those murdered/ injured/ traumatised in servos, stores, home invasions etc; the huge number of people whose property is entered and robbed; heart-broken families; young (inc very young) people trapped into using & selling, many of whom are traumatised, even killed, before they reach adulthood.
OTOH, it pays to look beyond drug barons and distribution networks to others who have stakes – inc their own ego, status and opinions/ beliefs- in blocking the Zurich solution. Which individuals and groups are most opposed to the “decriminalisation solution”, and ask yourself “Why?” “Why oppose even a trial of successful programmes?”
As a SHS teacher at the time, I can tell you when non-tobacco “drug ed” started in Q’s SHS: 1967, when pop stars were high on drugs, and significant medical problems with easily-available LSD were identified. It’s now 2012 – 45 years of “drug ed” and countless $$$millions wasted.
Also as a SHS teacher & community member, I watched the drug problem’s relentless increase in number of illegal drugs available, and their victims! Since I left SHS, then Uni teaching, the problem has become more endemic, drug-fueled crime increased markedly, deaths increased.
Forbidden fruit is always sweeter! The best was to encourage the spread of anything, especially among the young, is to ban it, criminalise it.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:31 am
I ask everyone to look at the dismal performance Garrett gave on lateline last night. If a Labor government education minister can’t sell childcare reform, what hope do they have.
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:32 am
GG – I agree what those past say about current events shouldn’t be given much weight.
That smart-arse crank the Reith made wtte ‘Sydney may have needed an airport but we didn’t need one’ should however be used by Albo.
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:34 am
bluegreen,
I saw it and agree about Garrett’s performance.
by Pegasus on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:34 am
janice2
I have an uncle who follows politics closely and he is a hard taskmaster. He said that JG is the best PM Australia has had since he migrated to Australia in the sixties. But he too believes His fellow citizens do not appreciate her. They are my sentiments as well
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:38 am
Sadly I agree about the performance.
I don’t think he has been a bad minister apart from the PR aspect – which apparently is everything these days.
I actually thought Emma Alberici was (unusually) poor as an interviewer – perhaps because she felt so connected to the subject matter (“I know because when I was in London we got government provided childcare for my 3 year old”). So many interjections about “but is it affordable?” without really understanding what it was that Peter Garrett was talking about.
Plus I wasn’t impressed that a scientific study with an interesting, but fairly ambiguous, finding about “amount of brain development” was being tossed around so authoritatively by Emma Alberici as a reason to radically change childcare placements and funding. So 80% of brain formation happens by age 3 – what does that actually mean? What does it mean in the context of recent findings about life long plasticity of the brain? They actually had an interesting graph that showed that significant loss of brain connectivity occurred as a natural part of development after the age of 3, what does that mean? Does a raw “mass” mean anything?
I don’t know, it seemed like a classic case of taking one interesting thing and projecting it much farther than it should just to ambush Peter Garrett on public policy matters far beyond its extrapolation point.
Anyway, Emma Alberici was irritable and illogical, but that doesn’t alter the fact that Peter Garrett doesn’t come across well, which is a shame.
by Jackol on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:40 am
am late with this.
In case not already noted. News 24: Major Announcement Clean Finance Corporation.
Swan, Combet
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:41 am
janice2
Btw you know how much I respect your views.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:43 am
guytaur
Thanks. Watching now
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:43 am
BB – you’ve hit on the reason why Labor is still in the pits. The ex Lib pollies and other RWers are so confident and exude chutzpah. Those not knowing the facts can be so easily swayed to believe the nonsense.
The Oppn has so many ready to help them trash the Govt. every day, everywhere. Labor runs a very poor last in that game especially when its own ex pollies make a living out of flogging their former Party.
by BH on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:44 am
Victoria,
I am in total agreement with your uncle but it is not going to an ounce of good if JG bows out because (a) there is no-one better (b) even if there was someone better, he/she would not improve the polling.
by janice2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:45 am
I actually feel a bit sorry for Garrett, he’s pretty well roasted every time he appears or makes an announcement.
He’s a bit too wordy, I agree, but I got the impression watching him last night that he’s pretty passionate about the areas he has responsibility for. That’s by no means to say it’s the be-all and end-all, I just think he is judged pretty harshly.
by Burgey on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:45 am
Thanks Leone @284 & Victoria.
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:45 am
Speaking of poor communicators.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ive-been-verballed-on-anz-andrew-robb/story-fn59niix-1226328207343
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:45 am