Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
GG
Yes, Crabby did fail to mention the elephant in the room. Why is hockey making these pronouncements prior to the budget?
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Tricot @ 2789
I think internal polling is not the same as we see in the opinion polls
by Meguire Bob on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Gary @ 2786
Who blamed her for that? I understood that Rudd, Gillard and Swan were all involved. The key point is that it was not Rudd alone as myth makers now want to portray it.
Nor is Gillard solely responsible for some bad calls she has made. She consulted with advisors and senior ministers.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:10 pm
bemused
One thing that can be agreed on. Labor has not made the big big liberal mistake. Labor has not sent troops to war based on a lie.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Meguire Bob
I dont think it is the polling at all. It was only early in the week when Barnaby said the baby bonus should be increased to 10,000. Now we have Hockey saying that govt cannot afford entitlements and there were too many of them under Howard!! This aint about polls. Just like it was not about polls with The Ruddster
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Finnigans – another BISON can’t reach here under Labor!
by Dr John on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:14 pm
This must be one of the new policies that the libs have been labouring over for so long. Workchoices
by lizzie on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Meguire Bob,
William opined some time ago that they don’t differ by much. Might have been Poss.
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:14 pm
GG @ 2788
I always feel OK.
I support the party and its policies.
And what may surprise you is that I agree with a lot that you post. I would prefer we both focussed on our points of agreement. But I do not think entering a state of denial where all is entirely well and nothing can be done better helps very much.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Perhaps Joe made the statement before the budget to try and head off Tones ? Any “toughness” in the budget and Tones instinct will be to go out and promise all sorts of goodies for people. It would be “$100 billion black hole here we come !!”
by poroti on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:15 pm
The talk was that Gillard talked Rudd out of going with the ETS. Ie Gillard’s fault. Hell, Rudd was the leader and agreed to the decision. Therefore they were all at fault.
by Gary on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:15 pm
But Hockey wants Welfarechoices.
Perhaps this is his product differentiation from Abbott.
by lizzie on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Dr John,
My missus still sheds a tear for Hessie when a Crowded House song comes on the radio. I do hope Greg hasn’t made the same choice, although it seems his health has been poor for a while.
Bemused,
The music scene will always find a way to hang on, but I don’t know if even banning pokies would ever get it back to where it was 20 years ago and before. I still remember pouring over the gig guide in the Mirror on a Friday afternoon that used to extend for 3 or more pages mostly with bands playing original music. All over the city and suburbs were venues with great live bands on offer. Great days, but pokies, covers bands and the dance music scene has consigned it to history.
by ratsak on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:16 pm
ABC PM just giving Abbott and Robb an almighty free kick at the PM and it is all because she and senior Ministers linked the Budget deficit/surplus to interest rates. Abbott chanting again that the PM has admitted her 4 high deficits to date have driven interest rates up and Robb going on about ‘still borrowing $100m a day’.
Clearly agreeing to the term ‘carbon tax’ has been her biggest mistake to date but this could very well turn out to be a bad second by reinforcing the simplistic lies, deficits bad and Labor is the party of high interest rates. It will be interesting to see how the TV news covers this.
by CO on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Agreed.
by Gary on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Tricot @ 2789
Is this a rhetorical question?
Labor dumped a much better leader than Abbott and one who had attained better opinion poll figures on the pretext of a minor slump in the polls that still left Labor ahead. Go figure.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Whatever the reason is
The liberals are looking for a change of leader , they dont feel Abbott can win it.
by Meguire Bob on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:18 pm
guytaur @ 2803
Agreed, although there are some aspects of the Gulf War that were rather dubious.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:19 pm
ratsak,
Don McLean got it wrong
http://tinyurl.com/dx33tmk
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:20 pm
I see the AFL has just about taken over ANZAC Day, for it’s own commercial advantage. Neat trick, but I am not sure that is what 25 April is supposed to be about.
Trash ANZAC Day so a football code can get higher TV ratings, how very ethical.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:21 pm
JG didn’t:
“YOU can call it a tax, if you like.”
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:22 pm
ratsak @ 2812
You must be in Sydney. I think things are a little better in Melbourne.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:22 pm
CO
What did Howard’s budget surpluses do to reduce interest rates?
by ruawake on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Puff,
Agreed but at least the Bombers have a chance this year.
Did you watch Chelsea and Barca this morning? Great game in pouring rain.
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:23 pm
I’m not actually privy to internal polling, but to the extent that they’re measuring the same thing as published polls, I’m quite sure they’re telling the same story.
by William Bowe on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:23 pm
guytaur
That was not a mistake, that was a war-crime.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:24 pm
TLBD
No, I don’t get to watch much of it in my Mum’s house. It is wall to wall AFL.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Dio, to be fair it was Crennan J who introduced the ratsak comparison , on Tuesday…
incidentally on the same page at the moment, there is a very pretty picture of a smiling PM as the link to another story, funny she doesnt look at all like she does in all those cartoons …
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Rudd had been a mile in front and that had slipped. He also had some worrying baggage coming up to the election but that’s all I’m going to say on this. No good going over old ground.
by Gary on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:26 pm
I doubt any political party is wasting money on quantitative polling this far out from an election. They can let the newspaper funded ones do it for them.
Qualitative polling is obvious in the super aggressive PM of recent weeks.
by ruawake on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Regarding the Lib leaderhip, I agree that Abbott is unlikely to be dumped while he is on a winning streak, but surely, surely, there are at least 45% of the Liberal caucus who might not agree with his hardline on so many things.
He’s probably showing a “softer side” as much for his own team as the public.
by lizzie on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Beware the scourge of the pokies – just lost another ‘local’ that had bands to 55 pokies!
by Dr John on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:28 pm
PB often reminds me of the last line of The Great Gatsby;
by Diogenes on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:30 pm
by victoria on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:32 pm
I know that Beasley kind of opposed the Iraq War, but does everyone really think we wouldn’t have gone if he was PM? I’m far from sure.
by Diogenes on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Channel Nine News Melbourne have pensioners protesting against the shadow treasurer’s plan to cut pensions. Joe, you drongo.
by Gary on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:33 pm
MM
I thought the same thing.
by Diogenes on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Gary – Joe you ripper!
by Dr John on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Why in the name of whatever does Capital Hill have Rhiannon and Frydenberg on! It’s not as if either will have a good word to say about the budget surplus.
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon @ 2825
One of a number of such crimes of the Liberal Party. Vietnam being their biggest.
by bemused on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:37 pm
There’s a bit of a theme developing, isn’t there.
Bring in cheap labour to bring wages down.
Cut welfare to make us all rely on rellies in a crisis.
IOW turn us into a third world country so that we’re more “competitive”.
Fools.
by lizzie on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:39 pm
I know! The Greens are part of the government!
by This little black duck on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:39 pm
ruawake
I agree the budget surplus/deficit/interest rate link is rubbish but the PM has created a big opening which Abbott, with the help of the MSM, has driven through. Simplistic nonsense it may be but it reinforces the ‘Liberals better economic managers and better on interest rates’ meme.
The PM and/or Ministers need to get out there and call Abbott either a liar or a buffoon by pointing out the interest rate/ budget position under Howard. Unfortunately this will be much harder now she has explicitly linked the two.
by CO on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Bemused
I take your point about KR – and I know you have not lessened your loyalty to him – even in the face of quite severe criticism here, but I do not think Rudd as PM can be compared with Abbott as LOTO in this regard.
The question arose from some who think that Abbott is somehow terminal for the conservatives – and terminal soon.
I just can’t see it though it would be nice to contemplate.
My point was to ask and yes, the question is self-answering – that if say Labor were in opposition and the the party was ahead in the polls, but the leader was not accepted, would Labor engineer a leadership change at this point?
Now, I know we can walk down memory lane and see what happened with Bob Hawke and the famous “Drover’s Dog” comment, but I don’t think circumstance are quite the same.
Trying to look through the eyes of a conservative, especially many of the mindless ones – which is admittedly hard to do – why would I want to dump Abbott?
Now, if I were a thoughtful conservative and was looking for the betterment of the nation, that is another matter. However, I would be in a small minority of what used to be called “small “l” Liberals”.
They are all but extinct now.
by Tricot on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Finally GOLD!
by CO on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:40 pm
CO
I think the pensioners protesting on channel nine will carry more weight.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:42 pm
tlbd
Chelsea supporter on Telegraph online:
by shellbell on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:42 pm
CO
Pensioners might be slow at Myki but they’re swift with placards!
by lizzie on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:44 pm
TLBD
At least the Greens are out there talking up spending on the poorest in society. Labor will look centrist wedged between welfarechoices cut cut cut and Greens spend more now do surplus later.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Now if only Gillard can hold it together for a week without something going wrong Hockey may have given her a booste in the next Newspoll.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:47 pm