Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bushfire,
The Libs and Nats are all bullshit movers par excellence – maybe they should put them to work out in the paddocks to help their fellow dung beetles.
by janice2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:47 am
janice2
I just think that the party itself may panic and make a change in the future.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:48 am
Burgey,
It’s just the usual Greens piffle and jealousy coming to the fore whenever Garrett is in the media. They continue to never forgive Pete because he decided to join Labor and make a difference to Australian politics and didn’t join the Kumbayah ring of nothingness that is the Greens and their supporters.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:48 am
Reminds me of a Bertrand Russell quote. “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so confident of themselves, while the wiser among us are consumed with doubt.”
by rishane on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:49 am
Its another School session. When is the Canberra Press Gallery going to learn.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:49 am
Julia Gillard showing immensely more class than JWH. She will attend the NZ ANZAC service at Chunuk Bair. NZ + Australian PM’s had always attended each others services when both were there……………..untill rattus rattus snubbed the tradition.
Chunuk Bair is where the Turk’s Kemal Ataturk memoral is sited and has on it his moving words written a few short years later.
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:49 am
Pegasus,
The middle ground voters are afraid of the Greens and they don’t trust them.
by Muskiemp on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:51 am
Robb: However, he continued to say it was not clear whether ANZ was justified in increasing rates. “It hurts me as much as anyone else when these interest rates go up because I’ve got mortgages like everybody else,” he said.
Mortages. Plural. Yep, just like everybody else…
by Narns on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:57 am
Victoria
Thought we needed some light relief!
Got some great writers on this blog.
How about writing an email and sticking a rocket up ALP ministers?
Just sitting back hoping Rabbott will fall in his own crap just ain’t going to happen.
by Dee on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:59 am
Bunkum. Exactly how long before Fraser went to the GG to call election 1983 did labor change leader?
Hint: in minutes!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 17, 2012 at 10:59 am
Swan speaking well
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:00 am
Good explanation of the current state of play with the NBN.
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/17/abbott-faces-down-tassie-nbn-supporters/
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:01 am
On Boerwar’s BTWs (multiple) this morning on the Army after Afghanistan. An old Defence hand being ‘blunt’:
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/04/17/Defence-A-return-to-the-core-force.aspx
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:01 am
Remember, for those who continually complain about the government, not sufficiently out and about, putting a good case, that they actually have a day job, running the place.
Rather than the whole day free for plotting, whingeing, riding a bicycle, living off a large pension in the case of Reith, or down at KFC with a mobile phone, like Joe.
by joe2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:05 am
Swan’s explanations of policy, reasoning etc. are a mess.
His answers need to be shorter and stronger.
Eg. “How does Christine Milne being the leader of the Greens change the Labor-Greens alliance?”
He needs to say – “Nothing changes. We’re the Government.”
Instead he rambles on and looks like he’s struggling to answer the question. He’s not – he knows the answers, the journos know the answers – but he just rambles.
by gloryconsequence on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:06 am
On Garrett, he seemed to turn up to that interview without knowing the message he wanted to impart on his audience.
He could neither discuss the features, advantages or benefits of the new childcare scheme.
When in a corner, he seemed to respond with “we have instigated a national quality framework for childcare”.
He has at least a dozen people in his office. he could get at least one with sales expereince to write his q and a’s for him.
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:07 am
joe2
Reith would do the phone thing but he hasn’t been able to find it since his son last visited.
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:08 am
From Labor’s POV I think the most dangerous development over the past say, 3-6 months, is now Abbott and his front bench can basically say anything, however contradictory, however offensive, however wrong; and get away with it.
It’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy – the media has seen a change of government as inevitable, they look at the polls and see the LNP well in front, and they’ve basically decided they’re going to win, so there’s no point getting in the way of it, just let it be. The differences yesterday between Abbott and Robb being a case in point.
It’s now at the point where Tony Abbott can pretty well say anything he pleases regardless of whether it’s illogical or offensive, and the media simply say “Oh, that’s just Tony”. It’s got the point where it’s pretty well factored in by voters now as well.
And I think that’s the most disturbing thing of all.
by Burgey on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:08 am
Combet almost looked like he wanted to lose his rag over the opinion polls questions on a carbon price that has not come in yet.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:08 am
Swan now telling the journalists that he’s not “into” instantaneous analysis of polls. And good on him for that.
Journos were arguing with him, inviting him to admit defeat and… then what?
Journos don’t say. They have no idea.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:08 am
gloryconsequence
i just saw Swan at the Presser. Imo he was very good.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:09 am
gloryconsequences
No Swan does not need to do that. What the media needs to do is show why short sharp answers are detrimental to the debate.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:10 am
Did you see the news conference. For crying out loud he said just that.
by Gary on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:11 am
BG
What I got from Garrett’s interview was a guest being heckled.
Emma was virtually whinging because reforms were not done yesterday.
Have you ever seen such demanding behaviour towards the Coalition?
by Dee on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:11 am
victoria
They will not show those points made well by Swan. It does not fit their narrative of Swan being weak.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:12 am
A mutual loafing association …MSM and Liberal Opposition.
by joe2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:12 am
Dee – yeah I have. Emma Alberici has a fairly confrontational interviewing style no matter who she’s interviewing. She handed Hockey his head a couple of weeks back too.
by Burgey on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
From the article linked above by GG (#311):
I have a mate who’s relocated his business to rural Tasmania. It’s a data intensive business to do with film production. He works with clients all over the world.
He tells me that with the NBN he can interact five times faster with his international clients than he could in Sydney. He kicks himself for not making the move years ago.
It’s all upside: he owns his premises, has a healthy lifestyle, beautiful surroundings and no business downside (in fact it’s all improvement).
A perfect example of what the NBN can do for businesses everywhere, especially in areas challenged by location or relative isolation.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:13 am
Swan did a great job at the presser. The Journos and the coalition are just playing politics and nothing more. The journos continually say that the govt has no vision. The only ones with no vision are The journos themselves. They are no better than real estate agents who prance around in their suits and fancy cars showing people homes for sale. As if they are doing something useful. I have had the pleasure of telling agents that they do not make the houses, nor decorate them, nor tend to the gardens. They add no value whatsoever. Much like journos.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:14 am
I hope there are a lot of comments on twitter when articles appear on this subject when the spin comes in contradicting what we have just seen. The twitterati need to make the Canberra Press Gallery feel the heat.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:16 am
Twitter is pretty useless for interacting with journalists. Sure, you can contact them, even conduct a sort-of conversation…. But I’ve yet to see one twittering journalist concede even the tiniest point, or admit the slightest error or exaggeration.
They live in a cocoon.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:19 am
They feel no heat because they have thin skins and block those who make the mildest criticisms.
by joe2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:19 am
victoria – here’s a challenge for you. Every time you meet someone give them a couple of little positive facts about JG. Reread Nikki Gemmell’s piece which was reposted on Wendy Harmer’s The Hoopla and drew heaps of comments and all favourable to JG. All women who are getting out there and telling others that this gutsy lady is showing the blokes a thing or to. Come on, join in because there’s no point in getting morose with every poll. There are so many more to come.
Swannie has just had a go at the ‘short term’ journos who live and breathe in accordance with the polls at a press conference where clean energy was supposed to be the issue. At least Swannie got stirred up and passionate.
by BH on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:20 am
OPT
For goodness sake there is no parallel with 1983. Hawke was already popular and very well known. There is no Labor leader currently in parliament (other then Rudd and that door is closed) who has any think like the public recognition and good will that Hawke had. Any in any case as Hayden said “drover’s dog.”
Labor is at the end of a not very happy two term government. No honey moon effect. If polls start to look at the 43% TPP with primary less than 30% there will b e panic.
Who do you think could “do a Hawkie.” They would have to have character, dynamism, charm, vision and appear competent. Oh and at the same time not be too scary ie left.
Shorten is the closest but he will be linked to the night of the long knives. Also while an OK communicator I do not think I would call him charismatic. He is still untested in a hard decisions. I will judge him then.
Combet is probably too left to get support. He is not charismatic in the usual way but possibly (I mean possibly) this could evolve into charisma of a kind. He is competent and well regarded. He is tested and succeeded in hard issues. My personal choice but I doubt he would have the numbers.
Smith is too bland and while an OK choice to lead the party to defeat he may not wish to be remembered thus
Crean self destructed in February as did Swan.
Roxon – another woman would be a risk. Competent but not charismatic
Albo and Taya P – too left so no chance – also seats are vulnerable to Greens
There may be young turks but they do not have public profile
T
by daretotread on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:20 am
victoria
Going on past history I would agree regarding your comments on the Journos in the room. However I will wait to see the actual reports from the media. They may surprise us and we should give them the chance to do so before judging them on this. Of course I will not be expecting change. I just want to be fair and not do what the coalition does and think guilty until proven innocent.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:20 am
“Reminds me of a Bertrand Russell quote. “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so confident of themselves, while the wiser among us are consumed with doubt.”
Just love that qoute rishane.
I starting to believe the the great unwashed really deserve Abbott as PM they suit each other perfectly.
The irony is he and his talentless front bench couldnt give a stuff about them while sucking up to the likes of Murdoch the mining boganaires and big business.
by eric on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:20 am
I’m not saying Swan is a rubbish treasurer, or that the media are any good.
I’m saying, he needs to change the way he speaks at media conferences. Is it ridiculous that the journos are hacks and can’t report more than soundbites? Of course. But it’s reality.
The more he speaks on and on, the more misdirected he gets.
by gloryconsequence on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:22 am
On twitterati.
If the trending topic is media spin lies to the public you bet they will take notice.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:22 am
The ABC 24 “summary” of the presser noted that there had been a big announcement, but neglected to say just what that announcement was.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:24 am
Gotta disagree with you there. They’ll just indulge in an orgy of self-justification, blaming everyone for their own problems.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:25 am
I believe that Mr Russell may have had rather odious halitosis.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:26 am
BB
That will be the public reaction. However editors and strategists of the right will be uh oh we overreached. Better tone it down a bit.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:26 am
Fingers crossed over this report. Else it could WWIII here we come.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaf-plans-for-iran-attack/
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:27 am
poroti
I think you will find it is a propaganda piece. Rattling the sabres for the local population without actually doing anything.
The world will know when it is not propaganda. When supplies are seen by US spy satellites being moved into place in preparation for such an attack. The US rhetoric in public will tell us more than the Israeli Times will.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:30 am
I think Bob Carr would be leader if Julia goes.
Lots of nervous nellies on here at the moment. The polls have shifted quickly and the Others vote is still high. That tells me there are lots of loose votes out there for grabs.
Time is ticking away but I’m not writing Gillard off yet.
by trawler on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:32 am
Presser: Christine Milne about to start.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:33 am
I agree about Peter Garrett’s woeful performance last night. He should study up on a bit of background for next time. He could have done what the Fibs always did in government when they were dealing with an interviewer intent on asking for answers – blame the previous government.
He could have said something like this –
Emma, you need to understand the difference between childcare and early childhood education. The Whitlam government provided funding for the establishment of community-run pre-schools so all Australian kids would have access to government-funded, quality early childhood education. These places did a great job until John Howard became prime minister. He changed the emphasis from education to the provision of childcare. There is a huge differencee between a child care centre and a preschool. You do not get quality early childhood education in a place that is set up to provide only child care. The Howard government did a great deal of damage to early childhood education in this country and Labor now has to fix that. I agree that the most crucial years for learning are, as you say, the first years of a child’s life. It’s a shame that so many little children missed out on quality education because a government thought that profits for private companies who provided childcare were more important than the education of our kids.
That would have taken a while to get through and he could have made Ms Alberici look like a dill for assuming that childcare and preschool are the same thing.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:33 am
BH
i already do that. my mum is also a great fan of JG, and does the same thing.
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:34 am
I agree.
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:36 am
Good to hear the questions
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 11:37 am