Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Amazing how you all get TV.
I have switched the set to analogue.
At least that works.
Fed up.
by crikey whitey on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:18 pm
I had thought you had some capacity for rational thought – just to make it perfectly clear – the Government’s current borrowing has zero impact on interest rates.
by CO on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:18 pm
mm
0% for the rich, 25% for everyone else.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:18 pm
go to the top of the class Dan!
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Crikey Whitey,
You’re not missing much. I never turn a TV on, only watch it when other people have it on.
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:19 pm
I saw today Abbott using the always lower under liberal line.
This will make a great attack advert come election time. The whole period of government by Labor the interest rates have been lower than under the Coalition.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Special PS for Boerwar and others interested in the Japanese advance early 1942:
OH (aged 2) & his heavily pregnant mother were (before the Battle of the Coral Sea) evacuated from Far NQ on the final leg of the steamer Ban Hong Liong (formerly Van Hoorn and Winhope’s) famous “run” ahead of the Japanese invasions, picking up refugees through the archipelagos (around Borneo/ Philippines), along the south of east Indonesian islands, through the Arafura Sea & Torres Strait at night (trying to hide from Japanese Zeroes) and down Qld’s coast inside the Reef to Brisbane- where it was moored off-shore for c10 days (very boring, says MIL) because of troop movements – probably the redeployment of the 6th & 7th Divs AIF
In a fascinating article about the Straits Steamship company and what its ships and personnel did “After the fall of Singapore”, there are 2 pics of Ban Hong Liong: http://www.merchantnavyofficers.com/straits3.html I hold it responsible for OH’s having been a total steam boat/ train/ whatever tragic! (I think he was more than a bit sh^tty he’d had such an adventure as a toddler & couldn’t remember a thing about it!
There’s a footnote about it in G Hermon Gill: Royal Australian Navy 1939-42 Sorry, our book is still in storage, or I’d type the reference.
BTW: as an addendum to # 3241, don’t forget to add to the bragging list Italian cruiser Bartolomeo Colleoni sunk by HMAS Sydney and others at the Battle of Cape Spada, 19 July 1940 (Sydney sunk with all hands by the Kormorant 19/11/1941.
Super pic of the whale-like leap of her fatal explosion
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:20 pm
i actually think that would make a good bumper sticker… it applies on so many levels…
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:20 pm
middle man:
I am happy to trust the RBA to make decisions on interest rates. I have no problems with my mortgage even if interest rates reach Keating levels again. My interest is in the politics and the strategies and tactics.
Gillard screwed up again. Another epic fail followed by the usual apologists for her here.
She linked the surplus to lower interest rates, playing right into Abbott’s hands
She linked asylum seekers to the queue, playing right into Abbott’s hands
She linked the CPRS to a carbon tax, playing right into Abbott’s hands
He is really doing her over slowly!
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Mod Lib
Oz has an incredibly low Gov debt level. Irrespective of which party has been in power over the last 30 years. Your mob are complete hypocrites with their endless carping about gov debt. Abbott reminds me of Dr Evil with his endless repetition of $100 million a day. It’s an empty, shallow politic. It may win him a few headlines buts it’s fundamentally a hollow log
by Rossmore on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:20 pm
guytaur. this is the BS of his statement. If we say but they were 7.5% when you were in govt, the Libs just respond with “but they would have been higher if labor was in”. and they are now doing the reverse. ALP say the are only 4.5% and the Libs say “but they would be lower if we were in”. talking about complete BS.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Bloody good line actually, IMO.
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:22 pm
To add to Rossmore/3209. The whole panic about debt and interest rates is the fact the Coalition knows that the upcoming surplus kills 90% of their attack lines.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:22 pm
mod lib, don’t try to walk away from your comment.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Unfortunately for the ALP, interest rates have been lower under the Coalition than ALP on average over the last 4 decades.
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Good work by the pm to put “pressure” on the RBA.
When rates are cut next month, as they inevitably will, she can claim all the credit for it.
Clever.
Meanwhile Abbott and Hockey are squabbling over who said what, when and how.
Dumb and dumber.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:23 pm
What comment?
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Mod Lib
No, you didn’t quote JG, you tried to analyse (paraphrase) what she said.
Anyway, that’s beside the point.
I wasn’t accusing you of misquoting her, I was accusing you of deliberately linking cash rates with interest rises.
I pointed out to you that interest rates HADN’T risen under Gillard.
And to stop LYING about it.
I don’t think you have it in you to admit you are falsifying information.
by kezza2 on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Yes, and what he was saying, broadly speaking, was that they were planning to cut welfare payments.
by Aguirre on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:25 pm
still waiting for you to tell us what they ‘ought’ to be… come on… its your line… do let us in on the secret.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:25 pm
After watching KFC’s brain fart on Lateline last night I predict at least a 3 point bounce in the ALP primary at the next newspoll. This is of course dependent on Labor getting some traction and a compliant press.
by Peter of Marino on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Proof Modlib at 3214?
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:26 pm
get your guide dog to check out 3176.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Aguirre /3218
The problem there for them is that no amount of spin can change what was said live on National Television. Pensioners have been warned. They are now going to be demanding policy from the Opposition.
Oops!!
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Only the Liberals have brought Australia the “Trifecta of Misery’:
*) Double-digit interest rates
*) Double-digit unemployment
*) Double-digit inflation
… all at the same time
In conjunction with
*) The worst recession since the Great Depression
*) Debt and deficit that climbed year after year
The handiwork of Treasurer John Howard – Liberal economic guru.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070627-Why-John-Howard-never-made-the-cover-of-Euromoney.html
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Why don’t you copy in the post where I said this when you tell me “its your line”, I would be interested…
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Perhaps these are aspirational cuts sloppy is thinking about…
They really are in a mess.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Rossmore I think most of the people who experienced what must have been horrific were reluctant to talk about their experiences. I learned more from an Englishman after my dad passed away who wrote an article about the events of the crash dad was involved in at Lincholnshire.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:28 pm
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1011/11rp12
Feel free to analyse yourself.
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Mod, no wonder you are no longer my fav dickhead. just a plain dickhead now, solly.
by The Finnigans on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Mod Lib
You can have the line about interest rates. I am sure the PM is glad of the chance Hockey has provided to ask how much of Pensions are going to be cut. How much of Medicare is going to be scrapped. So on and so on.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Mod Lib
Posted Thursday, April 19, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
higher than they needed to be, not necessarily higher than they were
this statement implies that you knew what they ought to be. otherwise how would you know they were higher than they needed to be.
i want you to tell us what they ought to be.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30 pm
This is where you and I part company.
I would no more agree to a blatant lie than fly to the moon.
But you don’t care about truth.
ABBOTT’s ACOLYTES LOVE LIES
Sums you up perfectly.
by kezza2 on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Mod lib 3211 do you believe that gov borrowing 100m a day’ ie 4 bucks a day per person, is a such a terrible thing? In your guts, do you really believe that?
by Rossmore on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Completely agree, they should go on that hammer and tongs. Yet, they manage to shoot themselves in the foot, trying to reach an outcome which they set for themselves. Further examples of Gillard’s tactical genius I guess!
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Mod Lib
Who is the role model for Joe Hockey and his lets have Hong Kong’s Social Security?
Sarah Palin?
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:33 pm
How the poor live in Hong Kong – Article + Pictures
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html
Hong Kong – The example the Liberals want Australia to follow
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockeys-strange-road-to-entitlement-enlightenment-20120419-1x8lq.html#ixzz1sS4x0V7X
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:34 pm
No modlib that is not evidence of anything. Apart from Whitlam having the lowest real interest rates..
I think you have given yourself an uppercut.
I repeat, in your own words, where is the evidence for this assertion.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:34 pm
kezza2
Just popped in to respond…
The 105,000 is the figure from the 2006 Census. Figures are not yet available from the 2011 Census. Now the number of homelessness has risen according to more recent sources.
1. 2006 Census: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/2B580BB732AD4B49CA2574B9001F81F3
2. ABS Cat #4159.0 – General Social Survey: Summary Results, Australia, 2010 released 30/09/2011:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/831D4C53C4A5E1A3CA25791A0082C684?opendocument
—————————
3. http://www.homelessnessaustralia.org.au/UserFiles/File/Fact%20sheets/Fact%20Sheets%202011-12/Homelessness%20General%202011-12(1).pdf
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:35 pm
The black hole in the Liberal budget costings is equivalent to all the money that goes through the Medicare system over a four-year period.
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:35 pm
to which I replied:
The question should be directed to Gillard.
If she says the upcoming surplus is needed to put downward pressure on interest rates, then what is wrong with saying her previous deficits put upward pressure on interest rates?
If she did not say the upcoming surplus is needed to put downward pressure on interest rates, then how do you interpret what she said?
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:36 pm
All the data needed is in the table.
You have to remember that governments were in power for different lengths of time though…
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:37 pm
you continue to avoid the question.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Yep.
More in my wallet than my guts, but lets not be too picky!
Anyhow, I have an early start. We can resume with Morgan (if it comes) or Jim Lehrer’s Newshour on Sat.
Good night.
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Ok so you screwed up admit it.
Sheesh.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Davidwh a small irony but I grew up in a county just north of Lincolnshire. A flat but beguilingly beautiful place. I, we owe our freedom to people like your dad. You might find this link of interest….
http://www.rodcollins.com/wordpress/lancaster-crashes-in-lincolnshire-lancaster-crash-sites
by Rossmore on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Mod Lib
Just like you have to compare like with like. Two examples. Oil shock interest rates around the world at the time of Whitlam. Regulated and controlled economy not to be compared with deregulated economy after Hawke/Keating reforms.
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Not admitting any such thing Henry.
If you disagree show me where I am wrong (rather than just saying ‘you screwed up’). I was just pointing out to you that you need to factor in how many years the governments were in power, rather than just looking at the averages for each government.
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Nup.
See #3208 for a start…
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:42 pm
No modlib you made an assertion which with your own link, was proven to be false.
You screwed up simple as that.
Still waiting for you to provide some evidence for your claim.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:43 pm