Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Personally I would rather see interest rates at 4.25pc and GDP at 2-3pc than what the US is experiencing. I gave up listening to the political spin on interest rates 10 years ago. It always was a furfie. Governments have little influence over what happens to interest rates in Australia.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:43 pm
davidwh/3250
+1
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:45 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockeys-strange-road-to-entitlement-enlightenment-20120419-1x8lq.html#ixzz1sS4x0V7X
Funny about that, cuppa
I posted images of caged hong kongians this morning.
Nobody gave a damn.
I thought it should have gone viral.
Perhaps Joe Hockey can help.
Cos, that’s what he envisages for Australia’s welfarechoices recipients.
by kezza2 on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:46 pm
kezza2,
Actually, ignore my post…too tired….hit post instead of preview….hadn’t finished analysing and comparing stats and years or sources….
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Henry:
I have no idea what you are talking about. Your post is a common occurrence here
1. you accuse me of something (a lie, a screw up, an attack on Wong….it varies each night but its there).
2. you don’t explain the nature of 1
3. you expect me to defend this nebulous attack
What is the assertion?
Why do you claim it is false?
As I am going to bed, if its
Interest rates lower under Coalition on average over last 40 years
Then, the average for ALP is over 4% and the average for Coalition is under 3%
Yes, I appreciate there are multiple factors which affect this, including the time the RBA made decisions independently of government. However, what I said was correct and is supported by the raw data I linked.
Now, you can work on this for 24 hours, and we can discuss tomorrow night if you wish!
Good night!
by Mod Lib on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:49 pm
nope. that didnt address the question at all.
by middle man on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:49 pm
No modlib, the simple fact is you lied and when called on it, you provided no evidence to back your statement.
The link you provided does not provide any evidence to your statement, in fact it contradicts it. Perhaps you were hoping no one would click on the link?
Either way, you have been exposed.
by Henry on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Kezza,
The link to the caged Hong Kongians article got a bit of a run on Twitter today, and shall give it another kick along tomorrow.
Here’s something I wrote earlier this month about the Liberal vision of Australia as the poor white country of Aisa…
Cuppa
Posted Wednesday, April 4, 2012 at 10:47 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/01/nielsen-57-43-to-coalition-2/comment-page-70/#comment-1209769
by Cuppa on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Thanks Rossmore. The Englishman was an official in the town near where my dad’s plane crashed and wrote a paper for the local library about the incident. He contacted me through one of dads friends. We passed on what little information we had and after he finished the paper he sent us a copy. It was amazing. Apparently some local scouts were the first at the crash scene and managed to save dad and two mates. Four others were lost.
The crazy thing I learned was that after recovering dad flew missions again. They bred them tough back then.
by davidwh on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:52 pm
More trouble for David Cameron.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/apr/19/david-cameron-pressure-nhs-waiting-times
by guytaur on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:56 pm
@Mod lib,
You can always move to another country if you want lower interest rates (same goes with Abbotto’s and Co).
In the mean time, steady as she goes.
by zoidlord on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:56 pm
kezza2,
If i have the time tomorrow, i might research more current stats that r comparable with census stats.
However from my first post this still stands:
The 105,000 is the figure from the 2006 Census. Figures are not yet available from the 2011 Census.
by Pegasus on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Zoidlord I think the RB can afford to lower rates at least twice more. Actually a 50 points move in one go would do wonders for confidence at present. Personally I think we are caught in a situation where the basic fundamentals are OK but there is a negative mindset due to residual GFC fear and political uncertainty.
I think it just needs a shift in attitude and some momentum but will it come soon enough for the Gillard government? Not sure, the jury is still out on that one.
by davidwh on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:03 am
Gosh, you’re a laugh a minute.
Did we hear you saying that when interest rates were 7.25% under Howard?
No, never. You thought you were on clover.
WTF should the question be directed to JG when interest rates are 3% lower?
That’s just a dickhead talking – and, YES, we’re all looking at YOU, ML.
Well, first of all you haven’t taken inflation into account.
And then, because they did.
Check out economists’ analyses.
She didn’t say that. She said a surplus would give the RBA room to move.
You’re just making it up as you go along.
And hoping you’re taking the half wits with you.
Good luck with that.
It must be a shit being on the same economic side as Hockey, Truss, Robb, and co.
Urrrghh!!
by kezza2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:05 am
This may have be an interesting precedent. Could this apply also to claims made about Climate Change Science? Also claims about what is and is not a Carbon Tax?
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/04/19/complaints-over-margaret-courts-gay-choice-article-trash-free-speech-group-says/
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:05 am
Criticism in the USA of the Catholic Bishops interference in politics..
(Whose surprised ??)
____________
The inclusion of birth control measures in Obama’s health care plans have brough those experts on the family…the Catholic bishops.. out fighting..talk about a War on Women!!!
http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/4/18/16518/1643
__________
by deblonay on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:08 am
rossmore
Yorkshire?
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:08 am
Gillard is spinning a bit as well. Mind you a fiscal consolidation of $40 billion, assuming its achieved, in one year may dampen growth and inflation sufficiently to have a small impact on interest rates.
by davidwh on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:10 am
From ML:
I think would do everyone a bit of good to keep that firmly in mind. It’s something I’ve definitely noticed with ModLib. It can get infuriating when you want to discuss the economy or policies or anything that might have a real impact on people, and all he wants to do is chat about the latest gotcha or the clever way in which something Gillard said has been misconstrued. Or the poll figures. But there it is.
I assume he probably cares about how the country is run and whether the economy is healthy. But he doesn’t display much of that around here. I don’t know why.
I’m fine with it, ML. But as I said the other night, I don’t know why you’d ever get offended by anyone having a go at you. You’re quite clearly pushing buttons.
by Aguirre on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:14 am
Economists warn of recession
_________________
Both speaking on ABC Lateline warned of the likelihood of a recession if there are substantial bdget cuts
This would come early next year and make the recession a major election issue
followed by a federal election like the recent Q’Land poll one imagines
by deblonay on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:15 am
Davidwh a year is very long time in politics. Contrary to much of the commentary I believe the Prime Minister of Australia’s best days lay ahead of her.
by Rossmore on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:15 am
Hey Cuppa, than’s great, thanks for that info.
I must admit I was a bit bewildered about the lack of uptake.’
However, what foresight you had/have.
It’s pretty dire, when you think about it, about how very thin the thin line is between being okay and being forced onto the street.
As a ridgy-didge Bludger, dole not poll, I know.
And I’m one of the lucky ones.
Sometimes, oftimes, it’s not too difficult to imagine your scenario.
And, I’d much prefer to be under the bridge with Labor than the wanky (Mod) Libs.
by kezza2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:17 am
Dan G 3266 yes
by Rossmore on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:17 am
WTF? Go read the AWM official histories, and stop writing unsubstantiated crap!
BTW: Very Good Video Battle for Australia – Milne Bay
Queenslanders were the predominant forces at Milne Bay. They weren’t on the Kokoda (makes you seem a bit of a dill, eh?) but they were at MB; that’s why Toowoomba is one of the 2 places allowed “Milne Bay Memorial …” naming rights (I think Enoggera is the other; 9Bn Assoc Museum maintains the Milne Bay Memorial Library and Research Centre in the old Sandgate Drill hall – now sited at Chermside).
Tmba has Milne Bay Aquatic Centre, Milne Bay Military Museum etc. There are even youtube videos of the address re 67th Anniversary of the Battle of Milne Bay by Major General Fairweather, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IryUDjSB6hg and the Service and 25th Battalion Roll Of Honour on the same anniversary http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk9uDjg4Wa8
BTW: Air Vice-Marshall Donald (Don) Bennett, founder and wartime commander of the RAFs Pathfinder Force was born Toowoomba, QLD, 14 September 1910 (a few days older than my mother) & some of the family still live here.
When PB’s Southerners stop abusing Qld & Qlders, I might reconsider giving as good as we get! But given it’s being going on relentlessly for years (started over Cubbie Station & Darling water during the drought) and has been really nasty these last 6mths or so, I can’t see that happening any time soon!
Do your research & get a life!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:19 am
Maybe Melbourne or Brisbane will be Sydney’s second airport.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2131957/Round-world-just-hours–Tube-Vacuum-tubes-used-super-fast-public-transport.html
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:19 am
And Poll Bludger has lost to banning fine progressive commenters, including Kersebleptes, whose buttons the so-called Mod Lib pushed…
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:21 am
rossmore
Same here. Born in Halifax, lived in Denholme (near Bradford), still a Leeds United supporter.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:21 am
SK 2870
6 degrees of separation – one of my family was mentioned in the funeral report of one of your family.
by MsAdventure on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:23 am
Peg, don’t sweat it, have a good rest,
Thing is, the 2006 Census 105,000 figure is the same at September 2011.
No increase at all. And the population has increased.
But, as you say, let’s wait for the 2011 figures.
by kezza2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:23 am
It’s even more basic than that, notably a diversionary tactic. From today’s news:
When things go bad for the coalition, try the old deflection trick of inventing nonsense about Labor and running with that. I’m truly surprised so many of you continue to fall for it.
by confessions on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:27 am
Kezza,
For a while I’ve had this inkling about what they’re up to. SerfChoices opened my eyes. Then I learned about the push by some Liberals in the 1980s to abolish the minimum wage. It’s known they’re hostile to public education and health, they are patronised by billionaires whose only interest is self-interest, they’ve got the media monopolised and pumping out the propaganda, the hard right faction is dominant, and they use the tactics of propaganda and spin that would do Goebbels proud.
Overlay that on an economy with Banana Republic fundamentals… and we’re looking at a new Dickensian Dark Age future, IMO.
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:28 am
In Ohio Romney’s supporters continue their attack on govt funded “Planned Parenthood”
All part of the right wing “War on Women”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/18/1084431/-Ohio-Republicans-move-to-defund-Planned-Parenthood-
by deblonay on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:32 am
Confessions:
Yes, and as we all know, when Gillard said “A surplus budget provides room for monetary policy,” she wasn’t tieing interest rates to the budget position. She was just speaking broadly.
Actually, it’s probably more appropriate to Gillard’s statement than to what Hockey said.
by Aguirre on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:33 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/19/phone-hacking-tom-watson-book-live
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:39 am
OPT
What a completely stupid thing to say about some people today criticising Cubbie station and something about water before you’ll give southern troops a go! History’s history; it doesn’t depend on how you feel personally about any damn thing.
And what’s with
in reference to Kokoda?
Are you saying your Qld forces didn’t fight on the Kokoda Trail
Or are you saying that any other Australian forces who fought at Milne Bay didn’t?
I reckon you’ll find my FIL on your precious monument.
And, for your reference, I’ve never, ever, canned Qld.
So, don’t put your parochial liver shit on me thanks.
by kezza2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:41 am
deblonay
Yes and these are the same economist that said in 2008 not to worry about a stimulus package for the economy will have a recession and instead called on the government to focus on keeping the budget balanced.
Thankfully Canberra said yep but no thanks and went ahead with its spending plans.
by mexicanbeemer on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:43 am
guytaur
i agree, why stop at canberra. having gone that far afield. why not bathurst – what a boost to midwest. one thing – wherever it goes it will be a boost for local employment. i’m not against wilton outright, but wonder if there are real water pollution issues, as well as transport, and need to know more about noise impacts and runway direction.
what exatcly is wrong with richmond? can’t it be expanded or is the defence issue irreconcilable?
by geoffrey on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:43 am
Re WW2 military numbers
______________
I’d be surprised if the % of men in the various armed forces during WW2 were very different from the percentages of the various states as a part of the national population at the time
from 1942 onwards 18th year olds were called up and one would imagine that as Victorians made up about 25% of the pop. they would have made up about that number who were called up
I had two uncles in that category …both Victorians…one in Darwin the other in PNG
Many Q’Landers would have served in the various Pacific theatres of war…but the notion that they alone saved us from the Japs can’t have any basis in fact
by deblonay on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:44 am
of course the high speed to canberra would kills two birds, and maybe just worth investment (the airport costs would be cheaper, and the high speed is beneficial in itself). the b-i–g problem is the sheer distance, time and inconvenience – probably the longest link to any international airport in the world. is there any longer elsewhere?
by geoffrey on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:48 am
gepffrey
Even if you did get the high tech super fast tube transport in place Canberra would still not work. It comes down to one word. I think that also applies to some degree to Richmond. Fog.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:51 am
Goodnight.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:51 am
Cuppa
Oooh, I hate to inform you, but I think we may be cut from the same cloth.
As soon as I heard “flexible work practices” over and over again this year- I thought Dickensian times here we come.
However, a big plus for us.
The ACTU heard it loud and clear too
And, they’re not sitting on their laurels.
They’re up and about and having a great deal to say.
So, Cuppa, I reckon we can join in and fight for our citizens’ rights.
A fair days pay for a fair days work
We live in a society.
We work to live.
Not live to work.
by kezza2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:57 am
Kezza, I think OPT took you to be referring specifically to Milne Bay when you said “Silly to claim Qld as the pre-dominant force”, though it’s fairly clear to me that you weren’t.
by William Bowe on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:04 am
So, Twiggy not pleased with Julia.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/miner-steps-up-attack-as-high-court-challenge-looms/story-fnb56a2t-1226333753018
Interesting that its being reported that:
I’d think the States may be a bit nervous about the second part of that? Interesting that W.A. is apparently NOT going to be a plaintiff?
I suspect its a move by Twiggy to cast doubt on the Govt’s upcoming Budget assumptions and give the Coalition an avenue of attack more than anything else.
by imacca on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:09 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/tony-abbotts-environmental-one-stop-shop/story-e6frg6xf-1226333815692
So, last night we have Hockey alienating, well, everyone who is or may at some time be a welfare recipient.
Tonight,
alienating every one who has any concern about environmental issues.
I mean, in this context he says:
Not a very reassuring statement from an environmental perspective.
by imacca on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:15 am
Mod Lib @3254
On the face of it your figures are correct….but to suggest that the average real housing interest rate is a useful way of comparing the performance of Labor and Liberal Governments is laughable.
On that basis the last five Australian governments in order of increasing merit are
Hawke/Keating (6.9%)
Howard (4.6%)
Rudd/Gillard (4.2%)
Fraser (0.0%)
Whitlam (-3.4%)
So Whitlam claims top spot, Howard second last and Hawke/Keating last. As I recall that is not the conventional wisdom.
Only somebody innumerate or disingenuous (or both!) would try and use these figures the way that you have.
by Jolyon Wagg on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:40 am
How is Malcolm Turnbull proposing to pay for his fibre to the node plan? Or is he advocating a smaller NBN Co?
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:55 am
La Stupenda has dementia, straight reporting without the bile in
by billie on Apr 20, 2012 at 6:00 am
Vintage Howardism and like that old phony, unrelated to actual events.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 20, 2012 at 6:26 am
joe’s entitlement thought bubble completely shot down in flames by prof white in breakfast just now…
by Lyne Lady on Apr 20, 2012 at 6:29 am