Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
guytaur,
Wonders will never cease.
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:41 am
Abbott can’t re shuffle because to promote or demote anyone will mean he has to cut payments to two of his Shadow Ministers. so he’s stuck with the team he’s got. This is why Sinodinis can’t get a gig. It is also why up and comers like O’Dwyer, Fletcher, Frydenburg, Tehan, Briggs etc can’t get a look in to the Minsitry.
There is no secret that Turnbull calls the people driving the Liberal economic policy atm (Abbott, Andrews, etc) the DLP.
The thing that is sticking in the craw of the traditional Libs is that Abbott is promoting an expansion of middle class welfare and the unfunded aspect of many of the populist announcements being made by Abbott.
There seems to be an internal fight on for the soul of the Libs.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:42 am
Benji if you are there, I will respond to your post at 8.35 last night as you were greatly illinformed in a reply by someone else:
- Centrebet is the largest corporate bookmaker in the country on sport (excluding racing) which includes on politics and led major betting moves at the last election.
- The fact that Rudd/Smith have eased from $4 to $6 and that “any other” has firmed from $7 into $5.5 is a great indication that no challenger to Julia will emerge.
- Of course “any other” includes Bob Carr (contrary to the nonsense you were told last night).
- The fact that Carr is bracketted with “any other” implies that sufficient funds have not been placed on Carr to be represented on his own. Again a good indicator that Julia will lead to the next election.
- In the reply you received last night, the poster said he knows little about punting – no argument with that from over here.
Ignore the featherweight post you received last night, you are now informed.
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:43 am
GG
I have been saying that for months, but they have obvioulsy been able to hold it together, unlike our ALP friends. The ALP did some bloodletting in the past few months, but nothing from the other mob. I honestly thought it would have happened by now.
Is the time now?
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:45 am
Centre,
Thanks for that. I hope Julia does lead, I just enjoy following the movements in the markets.
by Benji on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:47 am
Danny Lewis
.
Tones and Greg have a shared passion, B.A. Santamaria
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:48 am
From vex
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/04/placid-shrek-turns-feral-hockey-takes-stick-to-entitlements-without-blessing-of-leader-or-colleagues/
by bluegreen on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:49 am
victoria
As awful as the ALP bloodletting over leadership was it did have one good thing. It totally stopped leadership speculation and blocking of messages because of it. (not occasional posts in PB)
The problems for the Coalition is they have several factional wars going on. Not just the Liberals, but the Nationals as well. We know Joyce is trying to get the leadership. He is not getting a lower house seat yet due to leadership factors as much as safe seat incumbency factors.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:49 am
Although the official “Heat of the MB Battle” is 25 August-7 September, engagement with the Japanese attack began on 4 August (Queensland’s at dawn on 14 March 1942 with the first attack on Horn Is), and ended on 7 September, although 1 September is now officially recognised as the day Japanese were defeated at Milne Bay. Allied (primarily US troops) landed on Guadalcanal on 7 August, and the campaign was not officially over until 9 February 1943.
Milne Bay came under attack Japanese attack 3 days before Guadalcanal landing; Battle of Milne Bay’s victory 5 months before that on Guadalcanal – that, with the reasons for the Guadalcanal campaign, explain why Milne Bay is now universally recognised (inc by the USA) as the first defeat of the Japanese in the Pacific War.
Video: Battle for Australia, Milne Bay: Milne Bay http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXmbhkcpfqA The video also mentions one of the aims of Guadalcanal
Wiki references (updated since the official recognition)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Milne_Bay
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalcanal_Campaign
Prejudice is no excuse for not getting the facts right.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:51 am
Regarding the betting on the opposition leader at the next election:
Tony Abbott is very firm at $1.20 – Unfortunately this is not a good sign for Labor Bludgers.
WHY?
Because it indicates that according to the betting – the polls are going to strongly favour the
for a good while yet!
For those who keep the faith that the
will get the boot; Hockey is the only worthwhile course of investment action at $11 and maybe a small speculator for Julie Bishop given she is $51.
Turnbull is still considered strong second elect at 4.25, but I don’t think he is likes by his party. Malcolm has a lot of sucking up to do
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
guytaur
Agreed. As I stated, I have been waiting for the Libs/Nats to have it out for ages. Obviously the issues within the ALP and poor polling have helped them avoid any real scrutiny. Also, it appears that the Nats and Abbott are becoming more emboldened as time goes on.
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
vic,
The loyal Opposition within Her majesty’s Loyal Opposition are obviously flexing their muscles.
Obviously, Abbott won’t be challenged while the Libs are riding high in the polls. However, many of the traditional Libs are doing it through clinched teeth.
I don’t expect anything much to happen with the polls until after July when the Government’s CEP benefits start to be distributed. If the polls drop thereafter for the Libs then things may get uncomfortable for Tony. It’s pretty simple to replace a Leader whose policies and utterances are out of touch with the Party from what I have observed.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
Is Baillieu seriously considering privatising VLine?
Way to hand over an election.
by bluegreen on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:53 am
GG
The Libs and the Nats are not on the same page, and that is the main problem for them
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
Benji, wait for the individual seat betting to open – that’s when the real action will start.
I’ll try and call it here first
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:55 am
bg
The teachers here in Vic are threatening to go on strike, because talks have broken down
Ballieu promised to pay teachers more. Surprise surprise, he has backtracked on that promise.
Victoria is being very poorly served by this mob.
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
Love it or hate it, Julia willhave to step down if the polls stay the same into the New Year.
by Toorak Toff on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
Anyone know the source of this brilliance?
Both of these “answers” are already being employed by relatives. Where’s the silly woman been? Asleep?
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
centre,
How do you get the monkey?
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
Centre
All betting odds are built on shifting sands. They move faster than polls do. It is not where the betting is now that counts. That just shows no change yet. As the impact of welfare choices impacts on pensioners be sure those odds will change. As is the case if any calls of a leadership spill are announced.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:57 am
Possum today
Me yesterday
by bluegreen on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:58 am
bg
It is more than a little odd. Imagine if Wayne Swan had made such a comparison
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:59 am
Click on Show Help.
by This little black duck on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:59 am
News 24 Headline: Fairer Deal for ageing.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:00 am
OPT
You are confusing the campaign in Guadacanal with the successful landing at Guadacanal.
The Japanese failed in their landing at Milne Bay. The Americans succeeded in their landing at Guadacanal. The Americans succeeded in their landing at Guadacanal before the Japanese failed in their landing at Milne Bay.
If you want to argue which campaign was concluded earlier – the Guadacanal campaign or the New Guinea campaign, then the Guadacanal campaign finished earlier.
Not that any of this matters in the military sense.
by Boerwar on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:00 am
“Soul” heh? You old exaggerator, you, GG.
Just listened to Concetta Anna (“Connie”) Fierravanti-Wells on Faine talking about aged uncare. These people are devoid of soul.
by joe2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:01 am
Vic,
The Nats are strong Abbott supporters and are currently vetoing any return for Turnbull. This is unsurprising, given Abbott’s middle class welfare tendancies.
I reckon many traditional Libs see their Party as being hijacked by Agrarian socialists and and refugees from the DLP. Their only saving grace might be they are in front in the polls.
Unlike Labor, the siren call of the the White Ministerial Limosines is a powerful aphrodisiac for most Liberal politicians.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:01 am
Christian Kerr takes shreds off Abbotts B team
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/b-team-a-drag-on-abbotts-progress/story-e6frg6z6-1226333740681
by bluegreen on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:02 am
GG
Being so far in front of the opinion polls is what is keeping this motley crew together.
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
bg
Yes proof positive there is now increasing heat in the internal Coaliton wars.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
Not just the ERC, but Lateline too.
I mean, it’s such an obvious question: “Which entitlements would you cut? Which entitlements have you suggested should be cut?”
None. Hockey is bone lazy and dangerous to boot.
There will be months of hosing this down among their baseline supporters, private meetings where “senior Shadow Ministers” say, “Nah… Joe was talking broadly“. He’s the Big Guy with the Big Ideas. Don’t worry about Joe.”
And there will be months of Abbott looking back over his shoulder, unable to sack or promote anyone for technical (read: salary) reasons and unable to sustain the fantasy that the Coalition are all just one big happy family.
Labor needs to be careful that it doesn’t fall into the trap of saying that ALL welfare is wonderful, and that there should be more of it, irrespective of its nature and target. It needs to concentrate its criticism. What Joe refused to confirm as “eligible entitlements” should be a good starting point because they were just about everything that has been cut in recent times.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:03 am
bluegreen
Goodness me,remember the outrage when Hawke/Keating said Australia was part of Asia ? Apoplexy all round.
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:04 am
SK
: mrgreen :
but no spaces between the colons
So appropriate that he is a green
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:04 am
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:05 am
Thanks Centre
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Memory may serve me badly, but as far as the bookmakers are concerned, didn’t they have really good odds on a comfortable Labor win prior to 2010?
I seem to remember just a few days out, the money was still on Labor.
Somebody smarter than me indicated the predictive value of betting on voting outcomes is even worse that so-called scientific polling.
The reason has to do with the fact, as I understand it, that all betting odds are based on historical events and thus will only ever indicate the “what was” rather than the “what will be”.
I would be pleased if someone who is more at home than me with this could elaborate.
by Tricot on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Swan on News 24
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:07 am
bg,
It was interesting that Hockey is advocating we look at Asian methods to control IR and social Welfare when nearly every country in the world is looking at trying to emulate Australia.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:07 am
gaytaur no!
When the betting starts to get fair dinkum, probably about Sept/Oct depending on demand, most certainly from Jan 13 in the election year,
the betting provides you with the Real McCoy
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:08 am
The Agrarian socialists in Victoria, bluegreen, would be very pissed off if Baillieu decided to privatise VLine. It will therefore not happen.
by joe2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:08 am
Centre
Also done with : monkey : .Strange there are two words that work.
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:10 am
joe2,
The retiring President of the VFF said he got better service from the Brumby Government than the Libs. apparently, they have not deliverd on any of their key promises.
The Baillieu Government seems to be an equal opportunity shafter.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/turnbull-admits-coalition-overspent/story-fn59nsif-1226333744178
http://tinyurl.com/7lckvdz (click google link)
http://tinyurl.com/7mldkfo (click google link)
by Leroy on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
There is clearly no shortage of horrible women in Abbott’s team. Connie is a shining exemplar of this.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
*Catch you guys later, have a good one*
Oh, what odds Dr Stalker makes a sledging remark while I’m gone
by Centre on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:11 am
Centre
I think you meant that post for Tricot. You have just confirmed the substance of my post. That being shifting sands. Odds changing due to circumstance. Just like they do with horses. e.g. A horse is perceived to be over raced and people bet more against a win as they think the horse is too tired to win.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:12 am
Look at what is the top headline at moment at Huffington Post. Hahahahahaha
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/19/phone-hacking-news-corp-rupert-murdoch_n_1438530.html
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:16 am
BB, Labor should be proud to support peoples ‘welfare’ when they are in difficulty and have no other means of financial support. The word should not be allowed to become a dirty one, as it has in America. It is, what makes this place a civil and fair society and should be a major source of pride rather than an insult.
by joe2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:16 am
BlueGreen – where did you hear that Baillieu wants to sell off VLine. Its not in the Age and I can’t see it in the Herald Sun or do I need to look in the Business pages
The Liberals have form
Kennett sold the line to Warrnambool, closed the line to Bairnsdale and nearly closed the Sandringham line, which coincidently only has one level crossing over an arterial road (at Brighton Beach at South Road – not a high traffic route)
by billie on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:17 am
http://www.afr.com/p/national/aged_care_overhaul_targets_family_UViOyZCTdHoJees1xshfKM
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/inside_story_on_the_long_goodbye_U5yTvcjcY0o77pwGp1g9rI
by Leroy on Apr 20, 2012 at 10:18 am