Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Rummel 3685 I think Guytaur has sloved your problem, get off the Coalition supposed broadband and come over to the speed of ALP Broadband and you will be a happy little “vegemite”
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:54 pm
next on the agenda
http://www.smh.com.au/business/goverment-to-bankers-tell-us-how-to-regulate-you-20120420-1xbj5.html
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Guytaur
Abbott had the heart not to sell out Lib supporting middle australia to the green fruit loops. Julia won this round and signed away Labor to the greens and i am very upset it happend.
I hate one green nation and would prefer Labor govern in its own right, but Gillard knifed Kev and its been down the drain for Labor ever since.
by rummel on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:55 pm
I have been watching the response of the Aged Care Alliance which is made up of Providers, Unions and consumers and they are absolutely effusive about what the Government has delivered.
Looks like a political winner to me!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:56 pm
For instance, my husband’s electric wheelchair cost over $8,000. Furniture and equipment to nurse him at home, over $15,000. Resale value, half that if lucky. (We did get a mobile commode chair for $50 that cost someone $800 new.)
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:56 pm
@rummel/3702
Yes by one vote.
by zoidlord on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Puff
I hope the reform legislation includes some reform of the way nursing homes and retirement villages administer the capital they take away. It seems there are scams and scandals everywhere and this destroys the peace of mind of many frail aged and their relatives.
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:57 pm
I think this is a fantastic package.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Mari
by rummel on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:57 pm
It seems that try as they might, the media scrum at the aged care stakeholder presser could educe not a single negative.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:58 pm
David wh i am posting this again for you.
The only reason i am posting, is this is a passion of mine seeing allyour parents inlaws included
Go through this process,
So i posted the be low as well
t famlies re sons and daughters, in my age group and 50 something want a smooth transition Re older care and espe ially their parents home.
From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare I have a friend that has lost all her long service Leave and holidays, tring to care for her parents in their home, they are in their middle 80 s Refuse to goto a home, yet cannot even cook for t hemselves a meal ‘ the mums heart is so bad, the drs say nothing can be done, he has a touch of demintia and hard to handle. Dont underestimate the 50.s plus being glad to see more home care. I worry about my friend, she may go first, and i do note in familes, there is always one who sacrifices more.
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:58 pm
David wh i am posting this again for you.
The only reason i am posting, is this is a passion of mine seeing allyour parents inlaws included
Go through this process,
So i posted the be low as well
t famlies re sons and daughters, in my age group and 50 something want a smooth transition Re older care and espe ially their parents home.
From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare I have a friend that has lost all her long service Leave and holidays, tring to care for her parents in their home, they are in their middle 80 s Refuse to goto a home, yet cannot even cook for t hemselves a meal ‘ the mums heart is so bad, the drs say nothing can be done, he has a touch of demintia and hard to handle. Dont underestimate the 50.s plus being glad to see more home care. I worry about my friend, she may go first, and i do note in familes, there is always one who sacrifices more.
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:58 pm
rummel
Then you never wanted a compromise to respect the vote of the Australian people and you still do not.
What you want is a Coalition led government in its own right.
The Australian people did not vote for that. So get over it.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:58 pm
CTar1
No i wont support it.
by rummel on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:59 pm
rummel,
Abbott offered to sell his arse to become PM according to Tony Windsor. Imagine putting up your most valuable asset as a bribe and having it passed in.
Gillard won the election and the negotiations. That’s why they call her Prime Minister.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Sorryabout double post
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Lizzie 3706 I can confirm the scams. I had to pay a private nursing home to provide my dad the respite care he was entitled to because they knew I was desperate. Then they had the hide to offer him full-time care if I was prepared to pay them a large sum of money. Both of these things were contrary to legislation. It was an ugly system when my family went through what we did just over 10 years ago.
by davidwh on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Does any one remember the liberal mi ister
2006 may be that wtte we should get over getti g in heritances, re nursing homes.
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Puff
Some medicos are urging me to “get into the system” in case my mother needs more care or respite in the future. Remembering how stressful she found it, dealing with my father’s “carers” and filling in intrusive forms in order to gain a tiny amout of money, I want to stay out of “the system” as long as possible.
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm
What I can never reconcile with the conservatives is their “get the government out of my life” and “let sturdy self-reliance be the order of the day”,or “let the user pay” and “people should stand on their own two feet” and something about filial care (Hockey) with their sudden distaste for cuts to areas of government spending.
Contrast this by asking, “Who are the first to put their hands out for government assistance?”
Firstly, no amount of money is too much to spent in the bush – and the rural socialists – the Nationals – have this down to a fine art. From sealing roads that two people use twice a day to railways that will never earn a cracker – Alice Springs to Darwin. Oh, forgot, this might be for times of war – and of course, one sacrosanct area of conservative government largesse is always defence. Conservatives are happy to spend any amount of money here too.
Secondly, it is any business at all that hits rocky times and those “profits” which came easily in the good times, are suddenly subject to market forces. Option one is for the government to bail me out or “protect” my business. I think Harvey Norman was the latest of the bigger ones to wail and want help. However, to be even handed many of the unions wail “jobs” as well as we have seen with Holden and the car industry in general.
Thirdly is the daddy of the them all. When Labor does some legitimate trimming of middle class welfare, the conservatives suddenly have a problem with it – the recent cuts to the private health levy whereby the Liberals, without blinking an eyelid, thought is was okay for families with an income of over $150 grand to get some government help – something like 8% of the population I gather.
The conservatives are total frauds.
Why any intelligent, thinking person actually admits to supporting them has always had me puzzled.
by Tricot on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:02 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:03 pm
lizzie,
The representative of the care Providers said that the current system of remuneration made the beds uneconomical. He expected with the establishment of a process to measure these costs and a system to pay providers the appropriate amount, then Providers could then focus more on providing a quality service rather than constantly worrying about keeping their doors open.
Makes sense to me.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Your comments are great Tricot. :thumbsup:
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm
GG
Gillard did sell her arse to the Greens. There is some nice photos of Gillard signing over the deed to Bob Brown and the funny part is now Christine Milne is the property holder
by rummel on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:06 pm
It’ll be interesting to see how Abbott is going to distort this Aged Care reform. He’s there now saying that “Labor’s announcements are not what they seem” and that “Aged people are going to have to pay more in the future for their care”.
by janice2 on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Wall to wall good comments on the aged care announcement. ABC24 went to Abbott but, poor thing, the sound disappeared.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Aged Care package, I think its good. It promises to rein in the excessive rorting of some nursing home operators, bring a semblence of openness and transparency to nursing home operations, allow the elderly to anticipate how much their care will cost – its capped at $60,000 life time co-contributions.
My mother worked in the sector so I have grown up being aware of its structure, opportunities and problems plus we had to find nursing home care for mum for her final years.
At death, its not uncommon for superannuants to have contingency cash reserves of $500,000+ to pay for their aged care needs. After a life time of planning their career they also plan for their dotage and their death through wills, attorneys, living wills etc. This package will appeal to the over 50s and might steal the aged superannuants away from the Liberals
by billie on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:08 pm
GG
It all certainly needs a shake-up. Seems to me that it was early in the Howard term that things started to go off, with “rationalisation” or some buzz word. But I could be wrong.
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Er, which aged care people in particular, Tone?
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:08 pm
This is the first that Daily Terror readers got to see about the Aged Care Announcement.
As if Abbot was Prime Minister seems to be how they treat these things.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/abbott-says-aged-care-will-cost-more/story-e6freuyi-1226334346063
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:09 pm
rummel
The country party has been the tail wagging the dog for very many years.
Have a good day.
by CTar1 on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
rummel,
Your mob lost. Get over it!
Your bleating is pathetic.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:10 pm
bluegreen
I agree with you on Butler. He has the common touch and speaks to the audience rather than talking at them. He is a class act and should go far.
by MTBW on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:11 pm
BK
more like ‘media scum’
by Lyne Lady on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:12 pm
That’s what happens when the lunatics get control of, and remain in charge of the asylum for eleven years.
Now most of them are on the opposition front bench things are getting done to assist the people of Australia, not the rich ones who don’t need it but are still greedy enough to demand it.
by Gaffhook on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Tony Abbott’s vote and remember one MP couldn’t get there because of illness and she was a Turnbull supporter< Mitchen wouldn't allow a proxy!
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
mari
.
Some choir practise news.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2132407/James-Murdoch-face-U-S-lawsuit-claims-cover-hacking-paper.html#ixzz1sXxI5niS
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:14 pm
(superannuants to have contingency cash reserves of $500,000+ to pay for their aged care needs. After a life time of planning their career they also plan for their)
I would find this very very uncommon, indeed.’
I actually ask our money adviser big company, did he have many peop,e on his books
Who had reserves of a million, that he was advising, as i wondered whether our modest amount was below par, , he said no we where average, and those with a million in cash to spare he said not many
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:16 pm
GG
Im over it dont you worry and now am enjoying this stint out of government. It was tough under Keven Rudd as he was popular but life under Gillard as PM is great and enjoyable. In the end im happy Gillard is PM and looking forward to the next election in 17 months time.
Though on days like today i do have to nod my head in agreement with a Labor Policy.
by rummel on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:17 pm
lizzie,
The Presser I mentioned earlier made the point that up until 2009, the various components of the Industry were divided and self interested. But, since then, they’d got together to come up with an industry blueprint of what they needed to do.
Today’s package is the outcome of the process and they were genuinely chuffed.
Hopefully the issues you raised plus many others have been addressed. The Government has put in $500mill of new money in to this package. But, going on what the representatives were saying, the more efficient allocation of resources is going to deliver much better Aged Care Services for Australians.
It’s probably a good model for Government to address structural reforms.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:17 pm
My Say 3711 fully understand and agree with your sentiments.
I think you have to personally experience the system to really understand how bad it is.
by davidwh on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Once again, it takes Labor Govt to do another major reform, this time Aged Care. Well done PM @JuliaGillard – http://www.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/ageing-aged-care-reform-measures-toc
by The Finnigans on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm
rummel,
I can imagine you as one of those nodding dolls people have in their cars.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm
GG
Sounds good. And there are bouquets going around for the amount of consultation, too.
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Davidwh,
I was keeping my husband at home, which I did.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm
There will be more BISONs coming out of the major Aged Care in 30 years by PM Gillard. Watch this space
by The Finnigans on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Another three arrested for bribery and it is good that Bloomberg is reporting it. The US officials should be taking a keen interest in the bribery charges areas as that will assist them with FCPA charges against SeweRoo and Jimmy.
They should be able to establish that they are not fit and proper persons to own media in the US which should then snowball on to OZ.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-19/u-dot-k-dot-police-arrest-three-in-news-corp-dot-bribery-probe
by Gaffhook on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm
GG, in India, they stick pins into the doll
by The Finnigans on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Maybe not. Their heads are not hollow.
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:21 pm