Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
ABS Government revenue stats out today
Interesting to look at the rise of state and local revenue over the period since the GFC. This goes against the prevailing wisdom.
Fed revenue has flatlined and is yet to really recover to 2007 levels. Shows that the impact of the Howard/Rudd 2007 election income tax cuts smashed the revenue and was in hindsight a policy mistake.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5506.0Main%20Features22010-11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5506.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view=
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:12 pm
2GB now “hoping” that withdrawl from Afghanistan isn’t political. Points out that many troops may be withdrawn before the election.
What do they want? Keep them there till AFTER the election?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Catch you bludgers later
by victoria on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:14 pm
glory consequence – ABC24 now has its story. No matter what JG says they will put Abbott’c comments up first to show that he is on top of the game and she is following.
It is ever thus. It’s audience is so low that it should be abandoned and the money saved can be spent on building up ABC1 again.
alpalster – I don’t think you’ve given enough credit to JG and those around her. They knew exactly what they were doing in making Kev bring on a challenge. It’s the best bit of politicking she has done since becoming PM. Now she needs to apply the same torch to Abbott and the Oppn.
by BH on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Victoria,
She is also a very engaging person in private – and always has been.( Which is why she needs to engage in old-fashioned public town hall meetings in the next election campaign – not stage factory visits etc).
by al palster on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Afghanistan – what in the world made us think that we could win there when
The British were fighting in the Khyber Pass until 1947 – say 100 years
The Russians couldn’t win in 30 years
And what pray tell did any one think peace in Afghanistan would be like?
I assume that the Australian government will pull another shameful ploy with asylum seekers, like withdraw troops, declare peace, tell asylum seekers its safe to go home and ship ‘em out. In fact we destroyed their battered livelihoods even further so we are under an obligation to repair the wrong we have done
by billie on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm
I think they are afraid it will be a popular move.
by Gary on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Gary you are very loyal. I think the death of the Ruddstoration killed off any leadership speculation for Labor although it failed to solve the problem.
I am resigned to going to the next election with it being a battle between Duddette v Dudd (tongue-in-cheek intended). Actually I have been resigned to that for a long time but still live in vein hope it may change.
by davidwh on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:15 pm
As it is hoped that the coming surplus will not be for “crass political puposes”.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Gary
If Rudd had gone to the back bench there would still be endless speculation and you amongst the others here would be blaming him for destabilization. Now at least you and the rest need to shut up on that one.
He was outmaneuvered for sure – he resigned before they could sack him and also wanted to help Anna Bligh by resolving the issue. Not sure he had a lot of choice really. If he was sacked as seems probable then he would have sat on the back bench with lots of media speculation of a challenge aka Costello, Keating.
If he had declared undying loyalty to Gillard no one would have believed him and there would be media talk of playing in footy teams.
No Labor brought the debacle on themselves and will probably pay a heavy price. Any way the Rudd chapter is closed. How about leaving him in peace. or do you like kicking sick dogs.
by daretotread on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Did you all hear Greg Combet saying that independent analysis of the carbon price is estimated to be the same as Treasury’s. $3.30 per week. Let’s see how Abbott handles when (or if) somebody asks him about it.
by BH on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:17 pm
I say it as I see it. I’m not a member of any party and I’ve voted for most of them one time or other.
by Gary on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:17 pm
This is of course fantasy. Of course if a basically has control of the Senate then getting most things on your agenda through is pretty simple. A drovers dog could do it.
Amazing thing is that the worse gillard performs the more adorated and raised up she is here. Soon they will be kneeling before her singing hymns of praise.
She is keeping the seat warm, getting bills through is basically a no-brainer since it suits most of the greens and independents agenda to do so. But as a Leader, abject failure. As a political figure she has more in common with John Howard Liberals than Labor, and she has managed to pull the centre of Australia’s political narrative to the right that it makes the loonies in the Libs seem normal.
Most Australians can see through her even if most here cannot.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Locum on 2GB now expressing amazement that “1 in 8 people, right now, would still vote for the greens”.
Segues onto the new Nine Network show The Voice.
Masters of the trivial.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Tricot I’m still red when I use my I-phone. Must be a Green conspiracy.
by DavidWH on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:20 pm
leone@346, well said!
by susan winstanley on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Is Rudd ill?
by Scarpat on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Gary 411 fair enough that’s a principled position to hold.
by DavidWH on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Hey can I change my avatar to blue?
by DavidWH on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:23 pm
I think we can now say it is fact that the reason Rudd got and has been slagged so much by people here and by Gillard’s side is BECAUSE he remained so damned respected and popular in the Australian electorate and BECAUSE Gillard had no reason to stab him, AND because Labor are doing so bad in the polls and BECAUSE Gillard is disliked by the majority of Australians.
Rudd is victim of his own continuing success and Gillard personal failures. This why they hate him so much.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:25 pm
No, I will talk about it if I desire.
by Gary on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:25 pm
TP – you are there. I knew I could lure you back. My scrolling finger has had little to do lately. Ah, that’s better.
by Gary on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:27 pm
TP I doubt Rudd has given up in his own mind. However the failed leadership challenge has left him with few bullets to fire.
I reckon I will be back green now.
by davidwh on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:27 pm
The real benefit of a new leader would also hopefully be a new Treasurer.
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:29 pm
If he continues with those big mixed ‘grill’ brekkies with Joe he will be!
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Caught the tail end of the Swan/Combet news conference. I found that Swan was excellent in his responses to the media’s questions.
by Scarpat on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Dr J,
Hockey is sasving Rudd a second time by eating half of what is on Rudd’s plate.
by Scarpat on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Back to ‘stab’ing.
sigh …
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Sign of the changing times in journalism – two online news sites, The Huffington Post and Politico, win Pulitzer prizes for journalism:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/business/media/2012-pulitzer-prize-winners-announced.html?_r=1&hp#
I like the following comment:
by Scarpat on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Thats a bit bitter from Latika
At least he has tried to make a contribution to Australian public policy.
by bluegreen on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:41 pm
And Persian rugs.
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Budget surplus – Tick
Troops out of Afghanistan – tick
NDIS – Tick
Tax free threshhold – tick
Coming up -
Use the budget to get some more money out of the mining industry and the top end of town
Who says the government doesn’t have a political strategy to win the 2013 election?
I’m sure there are more elements to come – the reason we don’t know about them yet is that the government isn’t so stupid as to telegraph them beforehand and give the opposition a chance to outflank them. The other aspect is that the MSM has again missed predicting a government move (Afghanistan). They’re not worth feeding, let alone reading.
I find it strange that some are prepared to concede to the PM that she does an excellent job of running the government and negotiating with all sorts of parties to achieve that, BUT say she is hopeless in convincing the public. She knows a lot better than most of us who post here what needs to be done to get the votes flowing in the right timeframe and there’s a fair bit of evidence now that she’s putting all the bricks in place to achieve that. She may not achieve the outcome, because nothing is certain in politics. Right now I’d have my money on her succeeding – given the price available I might just put on a real bet today.
While I’m at it, I’ve asked a few times here if anyone is aware of any opinion polls (this is Pollbludger after all) which have actually asked questions like Do you despise Julia Gillard? or Do you hate Julia Gillard? or even Do you hate Tony Abbott? Nobody has ever replied so I presume there aren’t any! All we have to go on is measures of “approval” and “trust” which are generally not good for either of them. I’m sure lots of rusted on Liberals “hate” Julia Gillard and lots of rusted on Labor people “hate” Tony Abbott but that’s not really relevant as far as voting intentions of swinging voters are concerned. I think most people’s emotions about the matter are much milder and more likely to change than the use of often bandied words like “hate” or “despise” would indicate. This is particularly true for those not particularly engaged with politics at the best of times.
by ajm on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Obviously you need to be a tough egg.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:50 pm
You’ve got to be yolking.
Anthony Albumen is a goog minister.
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:53 pm
If we are going to drag up Ruddstoration yet again – sigh! – then at least let’s make it a bit topical.
Many voters chose Labor in 2007 hoping that a new Labor government would get us out of Afghanistan. These people – including me – were sorely disappointed when Rudd chose instead to talk up committment to the war internationally and opted to increase troop numbers. He spouted all the old Howard lines like ‘staying until the job is done’ and just like Howard he couldn’t really explain what that ‘job’ really was or why we were there at all. Voter disappointment over this issue and other Rudd failures helped cause Labor’s near defeat in 2010, but of course, it was all blamed on Julia Gillard and a crappy campaign.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 12:58 pm
JG to make announcement on withdrawal of troops on ABC24.
by Space Kidette on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:01 pm
poroti
That quote of Ataturk’s deserves a critical rather than an uncritical look.
It was only last year that a democratically-elected civilian government in Turkey finally felt powerful enough to put a halt to yet another military coup and to remove the top brass at the same time. This was the end of something that Mr Ataturk started.
Military dictatorships, militarism and military solutions to political problems had their genesis partly in the Turkish response to WW1, and the immediate aftermath war with Greece. This was the dominant meme of Turkish governance in the 20th Century. It is core to Mr Ataturk’s quote. It is about those who died in war, but it is also who have suffered under military rule ever since.
Just ask the Kurds, murdered journalists and the various civilian victims of Turkish militarism.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:02 pm
ABC24 with a pixelated dial-up-esque feed.
Why do we need the NBN again?
by gloryconsequence on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Someone needs to oologize their language.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:03 pm
I am sure that an old leftie like Ms Gillard is about to acknowledge the moral courage of those who tried to stop Australia from going to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Daily Mail is in trouble.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2012/04/16/startlingly-homophobic-daily-mail-column-removed/
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Great posts OPT @261 and Triton @ 266.
I agree it’s a long while from time to panic. I’d be a bit more worried if ratsak and Ian were predicting doom.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:06 pm
JG on ABC24. 5 minutes in.
by This little black duck on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:09 pm
g
I hope they are in a huge amount of trouble.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:10 pm
As niave as this may sound the PM, Treasurer, Ministers and others have to start pushing one line….the truth….and as I see it the truth of things is this;
The world and soceity that we live in has problems that far surpass politics. Especially the toxic brand that we have now.
I ask every Coalition supporter and the undecided this;…in 100 years time do you think that your descendants are going to thank you for the sterile soil, polluted water, dead oceans and rancid air?
I ask the coalition supporters this because you seem so caught up in the hunt, so excited by the promise of a fresh kill, to be able to drink deeply of the warm blood of Julia Gillard and the Government she leads. It has to go beyond philosophical beliefs. It really is a frighteningly primal bloodlust. And the sad part? You are just as deluded as you accuse us of being. Why? Because those that own Abbott, Cambell, O’Farrell and the rest don’t give a damn about you. They need your support. They need you to be trained to hate on their behalf. They need you to repeat and believe the lies. Not only because believing and repeating lies helps their cause but , importantly, it stops you from thinking. They have trained you to the extent that upon seeing a welfare recipient they are automatically, in your minds anyway, ” dole bludgers, promiscous single mothers, druggies or a combination of all three” although the reality in most cases is far different. It would take so little understanding to cure the hatred you have been trained to perpetuate. The legacy, your legacy, your descendants, one hundred years on will inherit wont be written in stone, wont be spoken of in reverent tones. It will be in the wisps of toxic fumes that, on occasion, darken and pollute the light.
It’s sad that you seem to want not only the blood of Julia Gillard but her heart and soul as well…and yes atheists do have souls and I’ll wager a lot purer than theologians who appear in the media from time to time and offer advice to the corparately owned.
by Ian on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:10 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:11 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:12 pm
I want Q and A to use their audience to gauge popularity of the parties. The Online Audience that is.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:12 pm
SK
D’oh! Mr Fitzgibbon demonstrates again why he was unsuitable as Defence Minister.
Participation in war is as political as it gets. It just so happens that the politics in Australia is that neither the Labor Party nor the Liberal Party have the cojones to call a speedy quits on our participation in this filthy war.
by Boerwar on Apr 17, 2012 at 1:13 pm