Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
billie# 747, from what I’ve read I dont like you all that much, but surely comparing yourself to Mirabella is too harsh a self criticism.
Did you get independent advice before doing this? Or are you locked in a garden shed signing all your rights away and wearing a nappy perhaps?
Bludger Rescue Services can be there any minute now: just say the word, we’ll make it somehow
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 17, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Mick77
I quoted Bob Carr as a member of one of the major parties in Parliament as one of several eperts in law enforcement. Sorry you cannot ignore the recently retired Nicholas Cowdery and Mick Keelty.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:01 pm
The thing is the guy tried to hide it all, maybe fearing the LNP preselection scissors that were snipping at the time.
He has no defence, he has to resign from Parliament eventually.
(Kezza this is top news story in Qld – sorry if it bores you).
by ruawake on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:01 pm
I didn’t say it was a “postal error” – you did!
I said it was not the biggest crime of the century.
And I said, who cares!
And I’d say the same about all the others you have mentioned.
It’s just not the biggest deal in the pack.
But quite delicious, nonetheless,
And if you didn’t quite understand what I was saying,
Hey, I’m glad Newman’s lost a minister.
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:02 pm
geoffrey
I can’t get quite what you are saying? Should Gillard stay the course, go or what?
by Tricot on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:02 pm
If we are going to swallow the “we must fight on because those killed will have died for nothing if don’t win” argument can one of those putting it forward at least say what a “win” actually is.
Australian troops could stay in Afghanistan for another 10 years before leaving and it will still turn even further pear-shaped within a year of their departure.
If we are to start back on the argument that we are there because of our deep concern for women’s rights when does the adventure begin in Saudi Arabai begin?
by roaldan1000 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Cough. Labor also employed more nurses (most of whom are apparently female) teachers, child workers, social workers, etc etc.
The drop in employment over the last year – particularly in these areas – are thus fairly and squarely in Ballieu’s court.
by zoomster on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Leone #742, yes and Abbott is running the same line about the National Disability Insurance Scheme – “supports” it so long as its design is handed over to a joint parliamentary committee. I have been shocked to see some people I know and respect regard this as a “bipartisan ” offer in good faith. For once the MSM got it right – its a spoiling tactic based on the presumption we only have a caretaker government.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:05 pm
billie
Her faults are her. Believe me. I know.
by zoomster on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:05 pm
ok thanks Kezza fair enough
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
guytaur
Chicken and egg situation. No tricky dicky booster rooster without the Rockefeller egg.
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Zoom
The comments about nurses, teachers, retail were made after reading this document
http://www.danielandrews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Victorian-Labors-Jobs-Investment-Plan-Have-Your-Say.pdf
I am one of the many who have been berated by Sophie so I have no love for her, but Ryan just looks less approachable
by billie on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:09 pm
The better for woman defence for being in Afghanistan being trotted out again.
That was not why we went there.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:10 pm
ru
Doesn’t bore me in the slightest.
Au contraire.
However, I can see the same sort of “new gov” belittlement that is the delight of the press, even if you can’t.
And, seriously, apart from everything else, it isn’t a BIG crime.
Or are you trying to tell me it is?
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Small steps but good steps today with Baillieu Government relenting to pressure to hold Parliamentary inquiry into sexual abuse of children principally by Catholic Church.
A judicial inquiry or Royal Commission would be stronger and more ideal. Outcome will be interesting.
Broken Rights should take a big bow. What an amazing organisation of volunteers.
In a very small way guys l could name including myself have thrown a few hand grenades.
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Re the Police minister…well ex minister he could deserve some/alot sympathy depending on what actually happened. In W.A. a few years ago there was a kerfuffle about drivers being done for driving without a licence due non paymernt of fines when a) They had not been notified of the fines (speed cameras etc) and b) They had not been informed that their licence had been suspended for non payment of fines.
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Guytaur
No one person is an expert/knows the outcome of such a drastic move in legalising drugs, not even your 3 names including Bob Carr’s. Barely a single jurisdiction in the world has taken the gamble but no worries they’re good enough for you to risk all.
Kezza
You’re obsessed with one aspect of the drug problem and that is the profits that go to criminal syndicates. That is a huge problem but so is the exposure of our youngsters to drugs and their devastating effects and legalising gives all the wrong signals. Enforcing the law (think Singapore again) gives all the right signals on drug use. This doesn’t mean you ignore the addicts in need of help but you can try to reduce the numbers of addicts being created.
by Mick77 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:14 pm
guytaur
“see the looks on their faces when they get to vote” or “smiling little girls going to school”
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:16 pm
And from our side of the continent……….
Local loud-mouth, and poisonous hater, Howard Sattler on Red Neck radio 6PR, has, for absolute months gone on and on about “bringing the troups home” from Afghanistan.
He has had Mal Washer and sundry Colonel Blimps on to support his point of view about what a waste of time and effort it is having “our boys fighting up there” while young Afghan men are heading to Oz in the boats.
So, today. with the the announcement of the draw down I thought I would listen in while he acknowledged if not praised the action by the PM.
I should have known better.
Despite all his belly-aching for absolute months, he tells his listeners – these mainly in the twilight of their years – that this policy change is…………wait for it……….
“Just politics by Gillard as she knows there is an election next year.”
To think people like him actually get paid for this crap.
There is talk of a reshuffle at 6PR with Liberal party mouthpiece to take over from Sattler in the drive session to jazz up the ratings.
Not sure where they can bury Sattler though.
Perhaps you would like him back in Sydney?
by Tricot on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Mick77
Read and inwardly digest.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1893946,00.html#ixzz1sHeKUJin
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Mick77
I am willing to go with the evidence of what happened with alcohol as a guide. I am willing to Undo the President Richard Nixon policy that has all the evidence in the world that it is a failure.
Repeating the same thingand expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Keep it up and I am going to think you are making money from drugs being illegal.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Note to Bludger Rescue Services –
If I ever lose my marbles and say that Sophie Mirabella ‘looks more like someone I have something in common with’ please come around immediately and put me out of my misery. I’ll obviously be completely, raving loony and in need of serious medical attention.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:22 pm
CTar
Does not matter. That is not why we went there. We also know that will be undone when we leave. Just the stark reality of the place.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:23 pm
well said Dr John #765. A Catholic household here, and none of us have any intention of entering church premises ever again until and unless we see some signs of genuine repentance from the church about all this.
A parliamentary inquiry is actually the soft, forgiving route – plenty of evidence of multiple counts of misprision of felony, conspiracy and other offences reaching all the way to the top if one chose to take that path …
Does criticising a hugely powerful rights abusing organisation make one a bully BTW? I dont think so …
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:23 pm
740
Looks like you might have given up before you got to my last two paragraphs suggesting I thought the government can win. Who’s throwing in the towel? Obviously you missed my earlier posts praising OPT and Tricot take on the matter.
I’m just sick of arguing to the ‘Look at the Polls’ meme. That’s what got us in this mess in the first place. KR’s obsession with the polls and evening TV coverage worked brilliantly for a while but not a lot of big things got done. By the time support had collapsed, there was really not a lot to show for it.
The Bracks Carr Faulkner enquiry, although not fully released ,made it clear that the biggest problem was nobody knew what Labor stood for anymore. This government, despite working in a minority situation has put in place Labor values and has taken the first steps towards dismantling Howardism, which was ignored originally.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:24 pm
leone
What has “our” Sophie done to raise your fears of such dementia ?
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:24 pm
I can sit in my confortable computer chair and eat hydromorphone hydrochloride pills perfectly legally.
This is because I have permission to posses a controlled drug. Surely it is not too difficult to let others have permission to posses a controlled drug as well?
by ruawake on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Mick77
You’re the one who’s obsessed with DRUGS!
You’re the one with the list of GOOD and BAD drugs.
But we are not Singapore. We are not dedicated to eradicating drugs.
Far too much money to made for the principals – and they, through their legitimate companies, contribute to our political parties.
We like drugs.
We like our freedom too.
Have you forgotten democracy in all this.
Freedom to choose?
And then, what we do if there were no drugs?
No drug police.
No fraud squad
We’d have too many people unemployed.
Ya gotta think the big picture when you’re talking aspirin.
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:26 pm
(Wiilliam this what is on the report on abc victoriaits about time you stopped the catholic basing on this site,, its actually enough for a labor person reading this site to change ones vote, yes tge church does get mentioned but, below is some of the wording, it should be madtory for links when comments like this ar made , thenbiggotary on the site is appauling
(
({The inquiry will examine the way all religious groups handle child sex abuse allegations and could result in criminal charges.
{The terms of reference include the examination of the practises, policies and protocols for handling such allegations.
The inquiry will also determine if there are practises that preclude or discourage the reporting of abuse and whether laws need to be changed to prevent abuse.
The Government says witnesses will be compelled to attend the hearings.}
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-17/government-announces-church-sex-abuse-probe/3955414?section=vic
by my say on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:26 pm
poroti
As a Sydney resident I am glad to say she is not “our” sophie.
In fact I think Boerwar might accept that as a good reason for Sydney’s existence.
by guytaur on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:27 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-17/science-fuels-push-for-education-re-think/3952496
So is this ABC presenter pushed or ABC presenter reaction to something already out there.
Lateline last night .
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:27 pm
I’ll say it again.
The current Newspoll seems to have disappeared without trace. Am I missing something?
I know the big news has been the cockup with the Police Minister in Qld, the Afghan thing, Collingwood Football club and Ben Cousins, but where is all the stuff on Newspoll?
Next to nothing on ABC news this morning, next to nothing on line all day, not even a picture of a sad-looking JG which usually comes up – or even with a smug looking Abbott on the conservative media.
Maybe tomorrow?
by Tricot on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:27 pm
my say #778 – I can only be ashamed of my own church. Is that bigotry? Dont think so.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:29 pm
If we are going to use the ‘look at all the women who are now better off’ line to justify our involvement in Afghanistan then what about the women of Iraq? Saddam was a tyrant, but his regime respected the rights of women. Iraqi women are now a whole lot worse off than they were before the Coalition of the Willing invaded their country.
There’s a lot of information out there on this subject, here’s a start -
http://www.payvand.com/news/06/apr/1118.html
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:29 pm
guytaur
fair dinkum
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:32 pm
The reactionaries are getting so used to leading in the polls it’s not really a story anymore.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Funnily enough, I was just about to write a support to billie – from last night – not tonight. She was under a bit of pressure from some.
So, I’ll never let you say that. Count me in, I’ll be there. I’d never let you go to your grave thinking that you had even the remotest resemblance to the member for Indi.
And I’d even tell your rellies, gratis!
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Funnily enough, I was just about to write a support to billie – from last night – not tonight. She was under a bit of pressure from some.
So, I’ll never let you say that. Count me in, I’ll be there. I’d never let you go to your grave thinking that you had even the remotest resemblance to the member for Indi.
And I’d even tell your rellies, gratis!
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:37 pm
throwing in the towel? – ha farq them, we havent even started yet and the BISONs are yet to stampede
by The Finnigans on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:38 pm
It’s good that the Victorian enquiry is going to look into all churches, because all varieties have things they’d rather not talk about lurking in the background. The Catholic church is not alone in this. For example, the father of Brian Houston, leader of what is now Hillsong, took over running that church in 2000 after his father, the then leader, confessed to sexual abuse of boys in his New Zealand church 30 years earlier.
It might also be good if a similar enquiry was to look at abuse by teachers in state schools and those who have positions of trust with kids, like scout leaders and swimming coaches. If we are going to get all narky about the Catholic church then lets get narky about all the others who prey on kids too.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Assuming I am one of the reactionaries (perhaps not?), its just that when there is no acceptance that the polls are bad for the ALP, there is little prospect of debating the interesting issues of where to from here.
We need to accept where “here” is first!
by Mod Lib on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
I guess the above partially refers to me, my scrambled say.
You will note that I stated the following -
“Small steps but good steps today with Baillieu Government relenting to pressure to hold Parliamentary inquiry into sexual abuse of children principally by Catholic Church.”
Is the word you don’t understand ‘principally’ see above? Therefore where’s the Catholic bashing?
You are certainly always adversarial and more akin to the Taliban than a Catholic methinks.
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Gee kezza, what can I say? Many thanks for your kind concern.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:42 pm
my say
I think you will find most of the “Catholic bashing” comes from Bludgers who were brought up in the Catholic religion.
This includes me.
I’m sorry if it offends you, but sometimes the truth has to come out.
Your experience is obviously different. But, shitty things happened to Catholic youth in Tasmania.
Look up broken rites and you’ll find out.
Just be glad none of it happened to your family.
Love ya, my say,
Kerry
by kezza2 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Criminal ‘activities’ have been facilitated and done under the cover of religious organisations of all types and other organisations as well – ie scouts, etc.
It’s a fact and needs to be dealt with – just like other solo dangers to children.
by CTar1 on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:46 pm
The latest Newspoll has disappeared because it wasn’t all that great for the Coalition. Whenever a poll shows a drop in support for Labor the msm blast it out everywhere as ‘a huge slump in support for Labor’, even if it’s just one percent. When a poll shows no change or a drop in support for the Coalition, as today’s Newspoll did, it gets ignored unless there’s some teensy little question in there somewhere that shows Julia Gillard is unpopular for whatever reason. Today it was all about ‘trust’. Sky News has had the ‘Gillard untrustworthy’ story up all day, they ignored the ‘Abbott arrogant’ finding from the same poll.
by leone on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:47 pm
The Finnigans
Darn right. Damn the torpedoes full reform speed ahead !!
by poroti on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:47 pm
MM,
No need to. Your God is omniscient and omnipresent.
by This little black duck on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Quite right – but one organisation is much more hypocritical and influential than the others. And that is a big difference for many of us.
by Dr John on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:50 pm
JAT’s argument on tobacco doesn’t sound convincing. Wtte “Packaging is the only way we can promote our product.”
by This little black duck on Apr 17, 2012 at 6:51 pm