Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
my say
This is for balance, because Abbott’s head always wags negatively from side to side as he speaks
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Well, we know now that you must never end your emails or tweets with a sign of affection, X, or make jokes with sexual overtones with those you think you have a friendship.
Unfortunate the PM, when handed the golden opportunity, didn’t make hay of Pyne’s & Hockey’s sexist taunting remarks as she walked the corridors of parliament.
It was widely reported but she stayed silent.
by Dee on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:21 pm
by Dee on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:22 pm
More from PvO
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:22 pm
I want watch news anything about this, it gives them ratings and not clicking to links
I know i am only one person, but i dont want to add to their clicks
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Would that pvo story be in the hard copy,
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:25 pm
my say
Sorry, I don’t know. I found it online via twitter (and skipped past the paywall
).
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:26 pm
I accept that being a labor supporting independent from a conservative leaning electorate is a hard gig, but these clowns volunteered for it.
Wilkie, Sen X, and Folky Oaky have being weighed in the balances and found short, frankly in the same category as Pauline Hanson IMHO.
Only Windsor (who I really respect and think is quite smart) and Katter, who I think is an idiot but is an idiot who is true to himself and his electorate should get enough votes to get their deposit returned.
by WeWantPaul on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:27 pm
(Well, we know now that you must never end your emails or tweets with a sign of affection, X, or make jokes with sexual overtones with those you think you have a friendship.)
Yes dee i thought that to sad sorry world its become
Our neighbour is divorced to scared to even attempt to meet any one, , i am sure he is lonley and some one out there is to. , to risky he says
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:29 pm
my say
That is why for the News Limited story I posted links to The Stump here at Crikey. You can see the story without rewarding Limited News with clicks.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Dee
Am i missing something? The transcript provided so far for sexual harrassment is laughable
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Why doesn’t Get Up run this little video of Tone and his support for a carbon price?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12PN66IBoPs&feature=youtu.be
by joe2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Just received this e-mail and thought of the pedantic ones here. Maybe they just have a point.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:33 pm
victoria
On what we have so far The Glass House Team and the Chaser Boys would have a field day.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:33 pm
joe2
That video has been floating around for a while. The ALP had it running via the internet for a while last year
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm
victoria
My point!
by Dee on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Dee isupose the pm was rared just like you and i , we ignored those type of people
And kept our dignatity, we would of also considered our parents and family re publicity
Its like the people that go n those shows and talk about themselves, i cannot work it out,
Then there is social media, dont get it
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:37 pm
guytaur
I need a good laugh. Would be great if Glasshouse was around!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:37 pm
joe2 @ 1011
The sad thing about that video is that Abbott gives a clearer explanation of how a carbon tax / carbon price works than many in the government have so far managed.
by bemused on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:37 pm
The author was cunning not to put their name to this piece of fairy tale. The rest of it is much the same.
Nooose is sure getting desperate to kill off the NBN. Time is of the essence and is running out fast, hence the undue haste in getting this latest bit re Slipper out.
They are probably hoping between this and the Thomson saga, that they might al least get one win out of the two. Both would be a blessing.
Don’t be surprised at “anything” that might come up from here on in. Desperate times demand desperate measures!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labors-broadband-spin-exposed-by-cheaper-plan/story-e6frg71x-1226334752608
by scorpio on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Just a rehash, except Albanese has spoken.
Sinodinos doing the classic Howard “can,t remember”.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-claims-need-testing-albanese-20120421-1xdcy.html
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Scorpio @ 1019
That is normally the case with editorials. They speak for the paper.
Many on this site confuse ‘opinion’ articles with ‘editorials’. They are totally different.
by bemused on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Scorpio
That and legislation requiring the Media to adhere to something like the Journalists code of Ethics. Ensuring accuracy, fairness and accountability in reporting.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:41 pm
All this is so up setting i just sewed facings of my overcoat i am making,,on back the front,
Now its therapy unpicking it,
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Even sadder is the person who made this comment has no idea of how the carbon price works.
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Blimey and doesn’t that piece fail in so many areas! Even gives the batts and school halls another run. Funny how they couldn’t fit the boats in though!
by scorpio on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Post 1000
Lizzie , post of the day,
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:47 pm
my sa
I should not laugh, but at least you get to have therapy out of it!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:47 pm
kezza
Wayne Swan could do a presser with the graph showing how the market works. Supply meeting Demand creating Stable Equilibrium etc.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:47 pm
btw if Slipper steps down from the speakership until the case is heard, who would take his place?
Of course, if he is on the cross benches, I daresay he would vote with the govt
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:50 pm
victoria
Anna Burke of course.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:50 pm
guytaur
Logical since she is current deputy speaker. How effective would she be during QT?
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm
victoria
I think she would be very effective from what I have seen when she is in the Chair.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:54 pm
The shrinking story phenomena has hit the Daily Terror. No big picture no more.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:55 pm
guytaur
Hope so. Apart from anything, Slipper was a very effective speaker and really took control of the rabble.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:55 pm
victoria
I would like to see Australia adopt an Independent Speaker like they do in the UK.
Peter Slipper has proven this improves things immeasurably.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:57 pm
my say
Thanks.
We all need a smile today, I think.
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
guytaur,
There’s a reason the photo has disappeared.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/strawberry-poisoning-bid-foiled/story-fn6ck45n-1226059915238
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Great. Burke put Abbott on the hot seat during the last session. Told him if he didn’t stop she’d sit him down and stared him down. He sat. She is excellent.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Too late
Even one rusted-on Laborite thinks er.er.ah.ah.ughh.ughh Abbott can explain that while they’re not in gummint, even they can say er.er.ah.ah.ughh.ughh they could put a tax on carbon and then er.er.ah.ah.ughh.ughh users can get a rebate.
Which is nothing like an ETS with a fixed price for a fixed time.
And he hates Gillard, to boot.
Good luck with that.
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:00 pm
GG
It has been crappy today. What frickin happened to the Blues!!!!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:01 pm
BH
I guess it will be up to Slipper if he steps aside until case is dealt with.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Having said that, it is a civil proceeding, so I am not sure he needs to do anything of the sort.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:02 pm
GG
Sloppy, Sloppy by news
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:03 pm
by Dee on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:03 pm
vic,
Didn’t take advantage of early opportunities, intensity was down and a couple of early injuries. However, we were beaten by a better side on the day.
No need to panic!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Well if the libs knew exactly what slipper is like and the shit he could cause they have been rat cunning in making life hell for him that assisted him in jumping ship. The other half of this rat cunning plan was the need for a despate sucker and along came Gillard.
It’s just like loosing the negotiations for the independents. Looked bad to loose back then but is a master stroke now. Looked bad loosing slipper back then but is a master now.
Gillard can’t put a foot right and is alway two steps behind lib strategy.
by rummel on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:07 pm
GG
Panic!! I am beyond panicked. We are doomed!!!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:07 pm
I think the current term shows that the HoR is too small to have an independent speaker.
In such a small house the political consequences of a Speaker who is not challenged at the general election makes the temptation of picking the Speaker from the most marginal seats almost irresistable.
An alternative would be to have a presiding officer from outside the house – the US senate does this by having the Vice President preside – he obviouslt isn’t politically independent but you get the idea.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Has Senator Brandis spoken yet? I thought he would have been the first one out of the blocks. Why so quiet?
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 5:07 pm