Crikey



Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

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  1. My God, what have we come to? What is the issue here? Is the “junior male staffer” under age?

    Lynchpin:

    I’m not in the habit of lying in bed, “in an intimate fashion” with my boss. Are you?

    I acknowledge that there are elements of this story which reek of beat up, but let’s not try to explain away bizarre alleged behaviour as something representing normal.

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 10:58 pm

  2. I’d be very surprised if Slipper wasn’t over the dirt that inhabits members of the opposition. If I were them I’d be watching my back.

    Correct. As I said, this seems a desperate move.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 10:59 pm

  3. ModLib – You could be right. But ‘dodgey’ photocopies of the court documents could likely mean they didn’t come from either the individual filing the complaint or his solicitors. Their copies would most likely be very ‘clean’.

    In the realm of ‘out there’.

    by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm

  4. The timing of these things is always suspect so it wouldn’t surprise me if this was timed to divert attention from a poor week for the Coslition but I am only speculating. Perhaps it was just when the media got the information together. Who really knows?

    by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm

  5. Confessions, “bizarre alleged behaviour”? Who says so? I am assuming these are consenting adults. Do you think such behaviour, if true, and if “bizarre” as you say, requires the Speaker to step aside?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:02 pm

  6. Ctar and Mod Lib

    If not provided by Mr Ashby or his lawyers obtaining records before a court publishes them could be breaking the law. What law is an interesting question?

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:03 pm

  7. Perhaps it was just when the media got the information together. Who really knows?

    Wasn’t it that the documents were presented to the court yesterday? That of course doesn’t explain how the papers got copies of them.

    by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:03 pm

  8. GOVERNMENT FALLS BECAUSE SPEAKER LYING ON BED CUDDLING A MALE PERSON.

    What a load of absolute tosh.

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm

  9. lizzie

    I thought when I read it that that was a strange thing for her to say, at any level. Why offend so obviously.

    Her words were deliberate and calculated. She was dog-whistling to the conservative blue collar Labor voters who she must win back from the Coalition.

    Gillard, and her electoral strategists, obviously believe that in smearing the 1.7 million Australians who voted Greens such tactics will overall be a vote winner for the ALP at the next election.
    ——————————-
    Kezza2

    Some time ago – you posted the above.
    And I haven’t been able to reply until now.
    I agree with lizzie
    It was a stupid thing to say about the Greens.
    And you’re absolutely right.
    And I can’t defend it.
    So, cross out my defence of JG in saying that then.
    It was unworthy of a Labor leader, let alone JG.

    Thank you for acknowledging an egregious and indefensible attack when you see it :-)

    by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm

  10. Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Heres one some of you may want to pack away for a rainy day:

    I know nothing

    Nothing new there.

    Libs normally know nuthin..

    by dave on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  11. oops:

    She was dog-whistling to the conservative blue collar ex-Labor voters who she must win back from the Coalition.

    by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  12. guytaur – If they came from someone in the court registry there will be hell to pay, and there should be.

    by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  13. Gillard, and her electoral strategists, obviously believe that in smearing the 1.7 million Australians who voted Greens such tactics will overall be a vote winner for the ALP at the next election.

    Of course those 1.7 will get in a huff and preference Tone who wants to undo everything the Greens helped create. Yeah, that makes sense.

    by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm

  14. But what do you make of Hockey’s and Turnbull’s recent comments and Michael Pascoe’s article re Run Joe Run?

    The same as the plaintive cries from TP, DTT, MTBW LIberals, and bemused whenever Gillard stumbled. Notably, that any day Gillard would be replaced by Rudd or a now-infamous ’3rd candidate’.

    Abbott has the backing of the crazed Howard wingnut faction in the Liberals, who are keeping him in power. Neither MT or Sloppy have the same backing, from what I can see. It will take more than an Abbott faux pas to dislodge his support, as we’ve seen in the past. An election loss maybe? Time will tell.

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm

  15. Confessions oh okay then that will be my addled brain at work or do you tweet under a different avatar?

    by Gweneth on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm

  16. Confessions: in the habit of lying in bed with my boss …. after a long career in the public service I can say with some certainty it is a common enough occurrence….

    by Rossmore on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:07 pm

  17. confessions

    Abbott is kept in because of climate deniers. They are desperate. Their influence wanes in direct correlation to the reality of the carbon price destroying the fear campaign.

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:09 pm

  18. “bizarre alleged behaviour”? Who says so?

    The person who has lodged the complaint of sexual harassment in the courts.

    Consenting adults don’t generally tend to do this. The case might be thrown out, then again it might not.

    Do I think this “requires the Speaker to step aside?” No. As I’ve said before, this smacks of a tabloid beat up.

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:11 pm

  19. Neither MT or Sloppy have the same backing

    Talcum is seen as uncontrollable and no one knows what he’d actually do and what is known is not liked.

    Hockey would be seen a as joke holding position.

    by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:11 pm

  20. Ctar

    The question many, including me will be asking is about News Limited. Did they use UK tricks and collude or participate in breaking the law?

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm

  21. Confessions,

    Abbott has the backing of the crazed Howard wingnut faction in the Liberals, who are keeping him in power.

    So, that is the majority of the Libs Party room then?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm

  22. Confessions

    Consenting adults don’t generally tend to do this.

    Do what?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:13 pm

  23. http://www.theage.com.au/national/kfc-loses-compensation-case-20120420-1xd47.html

    A father who claimed his daughter was left severely brain damaged by salmonella poisoning after eating a KFC Twister has won a court battle against the fast-food chain.

    by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:14 pm

  24. I think Abbott is still LOTO because his party has held an election winning lead in the polls for more than 12 months when two years ago Labor led comfortably. I don’t expect things will change while that remains the situation.

    by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:14 pm

  25. Confessions: in the habit of lying in bed with my boss …. after a long career in the public service I can say with some certainty it is a common enough occurrence….

    Fabulous. So the abuse of power over underlings in order claim sexual favours is now excused simply because it suits the ideological bent of some.

    *blinks*

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:15 pm

  26. davidwh

    Yes. That is why I think the reaction of voters to the carbon price is going to be crucial. I think we will know this around November.

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:16 pm

  27. The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    My mention of Ross Cameron was in relation to the media story of him having an affair while married and campaigning as a family man.

    Mod, it wasnt a “story”, it was a fact. Hence my question to you in #1223

    The best comment on that affair came from Sedgwick over at Tje Governor-General’s Blogspot. He said,

    "I was so hoping that the Scarlet Woman in the story would be Rose Porteous."

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:16 pm

  28. I think Abbott is still LOTO because his party has held an election winning lead in the polls for more than 12 months when two years ago Labor led comfortably. I don’t expect things will change while that remains the situation.

    Perhaps. Although I think a large slab of the business community wants Sinodinis, Turnbull and Hockey to do something rather than have the prospect of Abbott and Joyce running the show. Do you agree?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:17 pm

  29. Guytaur agreed and I’m not sure which way things will play out.

    by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:18 pm

  30. BBC reporting on Newsradio French voter turnout expected to be lower than usual.

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:18 pm

  31. So, that is the majority of the Libs Party room then?

    On the face of it, yes.

    Do what?

    Take the other to court over consenting behaviour, as your comment at 1554 implies has happened.

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:18 pm

  32. (The same as the plaintive cries from TP, DTT, MTBW LIberals, and bemused whenever)

    So is mtbw a liberal , i never new that

    by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:19 pm

  33. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if there was a staffer in Tony Abbott’s office who helped Ashby by giving him Steve Lewis’ phone number.

    by Phil Vee on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:19 pm

  34. In the conspiracy or cock up stakes, the latter is invariably more likely, no pun intended….

    by Rossmore on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:19 pm

  35. Lynchpin I can’t really answer that other than to say if they think like me that is the case. Although I don’t have a lot of faith in Hockey as treasurer.

    by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  36. So the abuse of power over underlings in order claim sexual favours is now excused simply because it suits the ideological bent of some.

    Not at all. It is totally impermissible. I have been in that position (as the underling). It is a shocking abuse of power.

    But even if true in the case of the Speaker, would that, in your view warrant him stepping aside as Speaker?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  37. savidwh

    Abbott has been so expansive in spreading the fear I doubt even the tabloids can save him when reality bites.

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:21 pm

  38. Dio

    While I agree with your comments, the hypocrisy here is amazing.

    When the un-named Labor MP in SA was accused of watching kiddie porn, he was suspended from the party and removed from all positions.

    I said he was innocent until proven guilty but everyone here agreed Labor had done the right thing.

    It is a completeley different set of circumstances, in the matter in SA the person had been arrested by the police and charged, in the case of Mr Slipper an ex-flatmate has said some things which Mr Slipper has denied. Where do these two examples remotely compare?

    by HaveAchat on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:21 pm

  39. A Senator with what appears to be a mental health problem (depression)- purely my own guess, I don’t have any inside knowledge- is left to sort it out, just as Senator Sherry and Andrew Robb were.

    A number of pages ago I know but Mod Lib highlights brilliantly the current media / lib inconsistency. A convicted Lib ‘appears to have a mental health problem’ so every thing is alright, a not even charged independent and labor backbencher cop a tonne of lib shit throwing and are guilty as all hell and should resign. I’m not surprised the libs and those that follow them like rats after the pied piper but with smaller brains and less morals run this way, but why does the media.

    by WeWantPaul on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:22 pm

  40. I think Abbott is still LOTO because his party has held an election winning lead in the polls

    That explains only part of the story. Consider who and which faction backed Abbott into the leadership ballot, and then look at his front bench today. It really does say it all.

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:22 pm

  41. O and Ddt, gosh i am naive

    by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:22 pm

  42. Rossmore, what is the “cock up” you are referring to?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:22 pm

  43. guytaur

    The question many, including me will be asking is about News Limited. Did they use UK tricks and collude or participate in breaking the law?

    Or no collusion at all – just feed the info from the source. Possibly the copies they got were carelessly made or disguised by being made that way – who knows, anything possible.

    Leaking from the court registry is the least likely source.

    by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:23 pm

  44. Lynchpin … What could you mean?

    by Rossmore on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  45. So HaveAchat, were Slipper and Ashby flat-mates?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  46. Rossmore, could the “cock up” lead to an election?

    by Lynchpin on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:25 pm

  47. But even if true in the case of the Speaker, would that, in your view warrant him stepping aside as Speaker?

    I’d have to think about that.

    Mary Jo whoever continued to serve on committees and in parliament despite the very real charges against her, as well as the trial. And nothing from either the media or George Brandis SC.

    If Slipper was found to have acted inappropriately, and against the Code of Conduct for MPs, how does one rationalise his continued occupation of the role of Speaker?

    by confessions on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:25 pm

  48. Ctar

    Yes. My comment was about if leaked from register. As i put in my first post if not provided by Ashby or his lawyers. If they provided it no laws broken that this lay person can guess at.

    by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:26 pm

  49. It looks to me like a Liberal Party smear job & payback for Slipper accepting the Speaker’s gig late last year.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:27 pm

  50. Suspicious too that it’s leaked to the most anti-Labor of the News Ltd tabloids, and Abbott seems very prepared at his Presser earlier today.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:28 pm

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