Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gweneth
Hang in there. You are among friends
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Dee:
It makes a mockery of the criticisms leveled against the so-called ‘ALP machine’.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:30 pm
MTBW
Spot on re PB
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:30 pm
What’s Peter Watson done now?!
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Same strategy exposed and employed by Murdoch acolytes in the U.K.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Graeme Orr:
I am only just in myself, and haven’t seen any analysis of, or commentary on the parliamentary ramifications of Slipper ‘standing aside’.
by confessions on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:33 pm
With Slipper stood down it means that basically a Lib is paired with a Labor Speaker. Slippery cannot vote, neither can Anna.
This is essentially what the Indies wanted yonks ago.
by ruawake on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Gweneth
You have every right to be “a tad emotional” and take your own advice “deep breath” “exhale” and keep your chin up.
Not the place for this I know but I have had four breast lumps removed. The first when I was twenty one which came as a complete shock to me. I was lucky with all of them but I know the stress and strain that you go through in these situations.
As a lapsed Catholic I don’t have much credit upstairs anymore but I will try a few prayers for you!
Keep your chin up and stay as strong as you can.!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Gweneth
What you said was truth. All’s good :hugs:
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:35 pm
By separating “fraud” from “harassment”, in one brilliant stroke, Peter Sleeper neutreulised the issue and left Abbott gasping for air
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Come Tuesday night there may be some interest in Leveson by our main stream mice.
by This little black duck on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Graeme, surely a Labor Acting Speaker would have a casting vote, and in your scenario break any 74-74 result in the government’s favour.
by William Bowe on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Bemused
Thanks.I will follow with interest. I have always had the impression from neighbouring Deakin that Anna Burke is a very good MP.
by blackburnpseph on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:39 pm
my say (way back at 2588) and also victoria earlier on.
Thank you for your thoughts. We are both much better thank you, although my sister is feeling a bit “cut off” at the moment thanks to the recent landslide on the Clyde Mountain (King’s Highway), as would the other residents of that part of the coast. It is a long detour to Canberra from where she lives by any other route and my nephew and his boys were planning to visit this weekend. That has had to be postponed.
I’ve not posted much lately for various reasons but, rest assured, I’ve been lurking! We are having an interesting time re the Speaker are we not, and I’m looking forward to the Leveson inquiry resuming in a few days in the UK. Murdoch might not know what has hit him.
Doubtless he will say how “humbled” he feels (yeah, right!) just like he did before the UK Parliamentary enquiry a few months ago, together with a lot of “I don’t recall”. I do find it amusing that so many of our senior managers, directors, politicians etc “can’t recall” when faced with simple facts – don’t they have appointment diaries, or keep minutes? I realise it’s difficult for me to remember what I had for dinner last Wednesday but I think I might remember if I were up to some nefarious activity.
I’m so pleased that his son has stepped down from BSkyB. The quicker the evil empire crumbles, the better.
It’s a pity bodies like ACMA can’t be more pro-active rather than having to rely on complaints firstly to the media organisation involved and then secondly to ACMA if that organisation does not give satisfaction or does not respond within a given time. Perhaps the Minister can give some thought to changing the Act.
Also, I understand from someone who should know that the ABC is not covered by ACMA’s remit except in certain circumstances and that print media is more a State responsibility, unlike telecommunications.
Having just gone through the upset of the State election up here in sunny (rainy) Qld where even my local member (ALP) was ousted having held an 18+% margin, I now look forward to voting this Saturday in the local council elections. However that is for another thread.
All my best wishes to you – that includes you too, victoria.
by Allan Moyes on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Thanks MTBW lizzie and others.
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:42 pm
shellbell
I was very fortunate during all my years in the ALP to have on my side the likes of PB and MF we fought the good fight and eventually did over the RW after a ten year battle.
I have many great memories of those times we were a team and all played our part I am very fond of both of them.
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Do dolphins read newspapers or watch TV?
Clearly not.
EVERY SINGLE MEDIA OUTLET is saying Slipper stood down because of sexual harassment allegations. Not one that I’ve seen has mentioned the Cabcharge dockets as the reason.
I think the ABC issued a correction earlier on, but apart from that it’s blanket “sexual harassment” given as the reason everywhere you look, listen or read.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Kezza2
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/james-ashby-sues-the-implications/
I posted the link this morning but Victoria posted one from the Herald Sun skirting around a similar theme.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/claims-baillieu-adviser-hid-old-slipper-claims/story-fn7x8me2-1226335232517
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Allan Moyes
Best wishes to you too. Politics has certainly been one hell of a ride lately!!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:44 pm
CH9 did, don’t know about the rest.
by drake on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Gweneth @ 2748
You have a perfect entitlement to be like that and I am sure all will understand.
I wish you all the best.
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Rua . Watched it at the Club over dinner. Great colour, burnt orange!
Ah, well. It’s back to PB Queensland bashing.
Must be the climate south of the Murrubidgee! Gives ‘em a sense of Entitlement to everything.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Chris Kenny must be an insider, because he knows how everyone will vote.
He warms to his topic…
The government shamefully stuffed up, managing to do this in less than 24 hours. How?
Yes, that’s right. It is shameful to stand up for an accused person’s legal rights and to allow them to make the decision themselves.
According to this right wing hack, it’s a lack of leadership and against public interest not to just crucify someone because the Daily Telegraph has published an article.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:52 pm
The message is getting through BB, but it will take time.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:54 pm
The media outlets I’ve seen mux in the sexual harassment aspect of it in such a way – “amidst claims if sexual harassment and fraud” for example – that they strongly imply this is the reason for Slipper’s standing down.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:55 pm
BB
Chris Kenny is a disgrace to his profession – if you can call it a profession these days.
by BK on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:55 pm
OzPol,
Read your post earlier re Villanova.
I am a ex Villa boy,grade 12 in 1973.
Played football with Gary Long and cricket with Gordon Nuttall plus a few beers. George Brandis was a year behind.
Had and have a few connections with the girls from Loreto.
I was interested in your take on the “cool ” school tag.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Well said Gweneth!
And sending all my healing vibes!!!!
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:56 pm
And when Slipper is cleared of the pathetic $130 Cabcharge dockets “allegations” the shock jock phone lines will run hot.
Explaining the difference between criminal allegations and civil ones is far too hard an ask for our troglodytic media to undertake, or to even want to undertake.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:57 pm
And remember, Newscorpse, will do anything to divert attention as boss Rupert, faces the music of nasty culture.
by joe2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:58 pm
I don’t care what anyone says. That decision in the Grand Final will set soccer back years. I was in a club in Coogee watching it and everyone, to a man/woman was disgusted. They booed the penalty where, thirty seconds previously there was indifference. It just goes to show that Australians do have a sense of decency, although it has not reached politics yet. Although, at the very same club, Abbott got the same amnount of derision. He is a loooonnngg way from being accepted.
Can’t wait for Jonesy’s take tomorrow. And I’d imagine Bolts Hadley would be treading on eggshells as well. Shouldn’t we have had a comment from the Opposition’s legal guru by now? And their manager of House business? Curiouser and curiouser…
by Roy Orbison on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:59 pm
For another example the ABC:
It’s a smarmy, slimy way of putting the idea into people’s minds that Slipper is standing down because of the civil claims.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 22, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Sounds speculative – what should the Commonwealth have done – engage a chaperone for Peter Slipper?
An organisation is not responsible, generally, for the wilful and non-employment related acts of its employees or members. An exception is if the organisation has notice of the acts and sits by – I wonder if that is alleged?
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:03 pm
RIGHT CHOREOGRAPHY- Step by step instructions for destructive sex scandal
1. Timing: Budget/Aged Care positive acceptance
PM/Dep. PM/Slipper OS
2. Method:
Design: Seduction/Entrapment (see Monica Lewinsky/recorded ph calls/retained ‘evidence’)
Validity: File in Court using Lawyers experienced in claims that are ‘settled out of Court’,
Fund suit for (now unemployed?) ‘victim’
Leak ‘evidence’ to previously discredited ‘journalist’ with ‘form’
INSTRUCT ‘victim’ set up a scenario to discredit target, eg:
‘victim’ stays in employer’s home and feels intimidated enough to give his employer a massage, but confident enough to say WTE “that’s all you’ll get mate!”;
then carry on txt msg conversation that reads as if it is between two people who have shared a sexual experience and are now being coy about it…..
KEEP TXT MSGS for use as evidence of ‘sexual harassment’ – whether or not ‘victim’ sent them to and from himself…;
INSTRUCT ‘victim’ to be shattered by a congratulatory stroke of the arm.
Co-ordinate MSM/Lib alarm/condemnation/blame Julia (see Godwin Gretch)
3. Follow-up:
Send reporters to hound ‘perpetrator’
Destroy ‘perpetrator’s’ reputation and credibility, and family background
DO NOT send reporters to chase ‘victim’ or hang about his house or car!
DO NOT question or point out ANY discrepancies or the veracity of ‘evidence’ leaked to MSM
DO NOT draw attention to farcical circumstances surrounding entrapment
(eg. 33 year old (not a 17 year old intern), politically experienced ‘victim’ previously employed by Libs, suddenly takes job with enemy of Libs whose reputation is already widely known (especially by Libs) is so vulnerable….)
…
PS: Most Lib voters I’ve spoken to still believe Utegate was legit!
Perhaps ALP should nominate Prissy for Speaker – can’t see Slipper voting with Libs and Prissy would have to at least attempt to be seen to be following procedural conventions!
by IMOHO on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:04 pm
SKY had it correct
by jenauthor on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:07 pm
This is a modern tragedy. A road is built for mining, and an indigenous tribe is made vulnerable to extinction. Their voices could be the voices of any native tribe, but this is in Brazil.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/22/brazil-rainforest-awa-endangered-tribe?CMP=twt_gu
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:08 pm
IMOHO
Wow!!!!!!! and it all sounds so plausible. Great post!
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Now you’re getting all technical. It’s more fun with the innuendo. Anyway they’d probably think of something sometime, if only they’d just arrest him or something.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Rudd leaked constantly as has been shown and was anything but loyal.
You have a strange definition of loyalty.
by muttleymcgee on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:14 pm
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/slippers-wife-stands-by-her-man-but-struggling/story-fn7x8me2-1226335234557
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:18 pm
shellbell @2782,
This is most probably a very silly question but would you know if the PM and members of parliament are considered as employees of the Commonwealth ?
If so then who is the employer ? If it is the Commonwealth then who or what is the Commonwealth in real terms.
If the PM of the time was aware of allegations re Mr Slipper and did not act on them then who is responsible especially if the PM was a employee. If the PM is a employee then who should he have passed information onto ? The organization ? But who is the organization ?
I realize these are most probably naive questions but I was interested in your explanation of the responsibility of organizations.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Get the impression that Slipper gig really has been a short, sharp thunderstorm.
Many of the news heads have now calmed down considerably – for instance “Slipper decision heads off political storm” with wtte that the stepping aside has taken the heat out of the issue as far as parliament is concerned.
This does not mean to say the Murdoch crew will still not be out stirring up the mud.
Amazing when you come to think about it.
All Donner und Blitz on Friday from Murdoch while everyone was out of town – and by Wednesday, Anzac Day holiday – the question: “What was that all about?”
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Doyley as a 1973 senior St Laurence’s old boy (uncool CB school I know OPT) the football game against Villanova was one we always looked forward to.
by kevjohnno on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Further to my post at @2790,
Should have added in my second last paragraph,
Would the PM and cabinet be similar to a board of directors with regard to responsibility? .
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Shellbell
Allegations of sexual harrassment were made to senior Libs who chose to go for the coverup instead of addressing the issue.
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Thanks Dee. Sorry I forgot it was you! Yes, I saw the HS article, but I really liked the link you posted because it set out exactly why, in terms of the workplace, all those Howard year Libs will be swept down the drain where they belong.
And it the b*stards keep on pressing for Slipper to step down/aside then they will have to too. Can’t wait.
by kezza2 on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:24 pm
mutleymcgee @ 2788
So it is alleged by his enemies. You know, the ones who were undermining him while he was PM.
Well what is strange about what I said: “A loyal party member serves with whoever is leader, just as Rudd did under Gillard.”?
by bemused on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:25 pm
William
the tied vote is a real possibility if Wilkie votes with L-NP, and Katter shows up. In this scenario, 2 things could happen – each of them a test for Anna Burke as she will need to balance accepted precedent and the government’s program.
1. Precedents are based on Denison’s rule from the UK Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_Denison%27s_rule
So the status quo is good for the government on, say no confidence which they win, but bad on a contested bill (say an entitlement means test bill) which does not pass.
Same with the “no further heard”; or “gag motions” which abound – the precedent is for more debate rather than shutting down – with the casting vote.
2. So what if it really matters to the government that the bill passes? Anna could break with principle and cast in favor of the government, citing good policy and the unique circumstance of the self-suspension of the Speaker.
The obvious Bill(s) to pass in this case is the Budget – ie Approp Bills 1-4; and any related enabling legislation for the various Budget Measures (eg tax scale adjustments).
Get ready for more hysteria when Anna does this.
So in short, the casting vote of the Acting Speaker is not lay-down for the government.
by sprocket_ on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Thoughts on this?
by gloryconsequence on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Doyley
Great questions the answers to which I dont know.
If not employees, presumably they are officers etc which means the Commonwealth picks up any liability which flows from their professional duties.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 8:28 pm