Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gary
He’s got the SMS’s from Slipper.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:25 am
Gary
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2012/04/21/putting-the-boot-into-a-slipper/
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:26 am
Good to see Diogenes getting his jollies from another ‘scandal’.
_______________
You don’t have to be Einstein to anticipate the media’s tactics…
Cuppa
Posted Thursday, April 19, 2012 at 6:31 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/16/newspoll-and-essential-research-56-44-to-coalition/comment-page-58/#comment-1221645
Cuppa
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 1:45 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/16/newspoll-and-essential-research-56-44-to-coalition/comment-page-76/#comment-1222531
by Cuppa on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:26 am
Could Slipper, who really wanted this job, be that silly? Something stinks.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:27 am
A thought I just had, although I don’t like asking the Q. What is the sexual orientation of the accuser?
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:27 am
Gary
Yes that is how I see it too. No reason to know that just instinct.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:28 am
thanks Vic and confessions -we have named the tumour John Howard – ther are many similarities! And I am determined to be around to witness JG win the next election. Not missing that for quids.
And Ian I agree. However much people wax on about wanting vision any politician worth his salt knows that it is the hip pocket that rules in the end. The compensation is coming, the interest rates will drop at just the right moment.
The WA story highlights the bind the Libs are in. They are really desperate now -so much so that they have almost guaranteed that slipper will cut ties completely. How smart is that?
by Gweneth on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:28 am
It’s the allegation that’s the important part – proving it is secondary and for much later and could go nowhere.
Trying to panic Slipper is the first part of the strategy.
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:28 am
Actually even the ABC couldn’t bring themselves to say “allegations”, it is “News limited is reporting allegations”. I wonder if that is ABC legitimisation, or ABC de-legitimisation.
by fredn on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:30 am
by Leroy on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:30 am
Gary
Leaking it to the press certainly stinks.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:31 am
Thanks for the link guytaur.
If Slipper has done this, a big if, then he deserves to go for being so stupid but, as I say, I smell a rat.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:32 am
kickinthefrontseat – they should have been doing it for the past few years. If that was all you took out of the week then you have been the loser because there has been some excellent policy work announced. As the media is the only voice you hear then they have done you a disservice and you should be asking why.
Mark Latham’s piece was excellent yesterday and his comments pertinent. The centre/left voice must get louder and more concise. His article was on climate change mostly but it applies to just about everything now. No decent Labor /progressive policy is left unsmeared by Abbott and his henchmen.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:32 am
Gillard doesn’t control Slipper. He is an independent.
They can move no confidence against him and send him to the cross benches.
I don’t think Abbott will be racing to line up Slipper’s support to block legislation or move no confidence. And if he did, well, good luck to him.
by drowner on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:34 am
lizzie
Ashby is gay hence Bongiorno’s comment that he could just be a jilted lover.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:34 am
Let’s hope your ‘John Howard’ suffers the same fate as the John Howard and loses its seat. All the best.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:35 am
Gweneth
Now is the time to give yourself all the treats and kindnesses you enjoy most. Not necessarily the big things – just the little everyday pleasures. Spoil yourself.
Thinking of you and wishing you strength.
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:35 am
Unless the documents were leaked by a court staffer, or one of Ashby’s lawyers (either of these too horrible a possibility to contemplate), then it must have been Ashby who leaked to Lewis.
I’d suggest that Ashby has quite possibly done a “chequebook journalism” deal with News. Don’t expect any other news organization to be able to get within co’ee of him for an interview.
These allegations are not yet in front of a court. I don’t know how the early leaking affect their status as sub-judice, or not (as the case may be). I can’t imagine that any judge hearing the case would be happy that untested court filings, not yet (or in the near future) subject to cross examination, have been splashed all over nationwide front pages as fact, with call attached for the resignation of the defendant based upon those untested allegations.
We have to ask ourselves: Why now? Why this early in the process? IT has all the hallmarks of a rushed job. Knowing the News modus operandi there are likely to have been mistakes made along the way. Usually News just bluffs or threatens their way out of blunders like this, or totally ignores them while bleating about “freedom of the press” meaning “freedom to print made-up stories”.
We’ve heard it all before – the Hanson photos, Godwin Grech and a host of others – News bluffed their way out of trouble, or stood-over their accusers, threatening retribution if action was taken.
It will take courage to confront them, to turn the tables. Surely someone in the government has the bottle to do this?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:36 am
Diog
Thanks for that info. I prefer to know the facts before I jump into the muck.
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:37 am
Gweneth – that’s the spirit. Anything that helps is good. OH blamed his prostate cancer on JH as a way of relieving his own anger.
With other things on your mind I guess you haven’t had a chance to assess JG’s visit to the West this week but from here she looked to be doing well.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:37 am
Dio
It should also be noted that Ashby has engaged the same legal firm that took on the sexual harassment case against David Jones. From what I heard on radio this morning Ashby or his legal team has engaged a spinner Anthony McLelland who has also previously done work for the ALP.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:40 am
BB
As evidenced by this tweet i posted earlier, it appears Slipper only knew when it made the papers
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:40 am
Aside from the malevolence of the coordinated attack by most of the Murdoch media over the Slipper issue a few things to keep it in perspective.
*Sex – or possibility of naught sex, always sells. Better still if it is perhaps naughty boy sex. Can’t blame Murdoch press for doing what it does well – that is, dealing in sleaze.
*Plenty here have chortled about the revelations in the UK of some of the naughtier bits of the Murdoch operation there so I guess one has to cop it both ways.
*Slipper was damaged goods long ago and I sensed a sigh of relief from the Liberals with the, “He’s your problem now” comment from Abbott to JG at the time.
*There is real danger in this for the Libs too. If it can be shown that they have known about impropriety and it may date back to 2003, and they did nothing to deal with the matter, then questions need to go out to them. It is no surprise that some Lib mouth-pieces are being extremely careful in choosing their words or having memory problems.
*The editorials in the East Coast tabloids are not read by many though the lurid front pages are not to be denied or the grist for the talk back poisoners.
*It really doesn’t matter at this stage, from the Murdoch perspective, if this issue comes to something or nothing as it still serves the purpose of somehow lining up the present government with the issue. The reported headline “….etc…etc Rocks the Gillard government” is all that is needed. I mean the fact that both Slipper and Gillard are both overseas, or will be, shows how “rocked” the government really is.
*There is not one mention of any of this in the West today. By the time it penetrates any kind of brain on Monday, Anzac Day will be upon us and by the end of the week, it will be history.
The downside of course is that the government has had a very good week and this confected, clearly confected, matter is Murdoch doing all he can again – or his minions – to further try to blacken the government.
I must say, however, to be even-handed, if such a scandal (real or otherwise) were to be shown to be on the other side whether we may not enjoy it, just a teensy, weensy bit?
by Tricot on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:41 am
MTBW
I’m guessing Ashby leaked the stuff to help get a quick, large out-of-court settlement.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:44 am
Tricot
Had the same thoughts myself!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:44 am
dont know who this is
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:45 am
Dio
Who knows but it ain’t a good look!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:46 am
These allegations are on the same day as the latest Rant on The Australian in regards to NBN:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labors-broadband-spin-exposed-by-cheaper-plan/story-e6frg71x-1226334752608
by zoidlord on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:48 am
The court documents say exactly the same thing happened in 2003 and the Libs ignored it so Abbott can hardly get too huffy.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:49 am
I’d fu@#$n love it!
by Ian on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:49 am
That is what Labor should do. Tie Abbott to the 2003 allegations so any political damage sticks to him as much as anyone else.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:51 am
Diog, methinks of a “settlement” from Current Affairs or 58Minutes
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:51 am
Victoria.
I think yesterday’s policy got a good run considering what it was. It was never going to be a gillard saver
by rummel on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:52 am
Only if it is favourable to gillard. If unfavourable to Ms Gillard then the accuser has something to gain, is a jilted lover, making things up, the public doesn’t have a right to know….and so forth.
But let us apply the Howard test, always good to show up the cultism of the immaculate gillard here.
If this was a Howard govt what would the response of worshippers here be? Of course there would be joy, laughter and ridicule of the Howard govt, and the ‘defendant’ would be assumed guilty. And there would be an out pouring of empathy for the accuser/victim.
Regardless of the out come of the cases against Slipper (sexual harassment, fraud?) – (and I gather they would have copies of said text messages) this will only go to futher highlight the legitimacy problems of Gillard, the honesty and trustworthiness of Gillard and the judgement of Gillard.
They should have dumped Gillard for the person the people overwhelming wanted as Australia’s leader, when they had the chance. Now they will just wallow and stew in their own iniquity. Ironically this will make Rudd look even more an honest clean skin.
Got to love the self destructive nature of Labor’s factions and Gillard’s supporters.
So now we have Slipper and Thomson episodes to play out in public over the next…..what else is to come out of their cesspit over the next 12 months? I am sure there will be other stuff now.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:52 am
Thomas Paine
What did Abbott know in 2003? If he did not know why not?
He was a cabinet member of the Howard Government.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:54 am
Vic 725 – appears to be a right wing supporter of abbott – several tweets against govt and obama
by Lyne Lady on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:54 am
Fairfax still not reporting it.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:55 am
LL
Yes It seems so.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:57 am
I’ve read the DT story and really, it’s a dose of the Peggy Lees.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VscVP_Gt_s
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 11:59 am
Senator Bob Brown is on QanA on Monday Night. I wonder what he is going to say about the latest incarnation of the Hate Media.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Thomas Paine,
Your hatred for Gillard and her government has produced some delightful turns of phrase. The above is another simple, yet elegant, example.
Looking forward to more Tom,
Regards,
drake
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:00 pm
I noticed that. It maybe due to legal considerations.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:01 pm
albo news 24
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:01 pm
TP just gives me the opportunity to see if my scroll wheel still operates. It does.
by Gary on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:02 pm
As far as the #MSMhacks are concerned shower with the door open or not is far more important than a major 30 year Aged Care Reforms
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:02 pm
GG
It is on the front page of every Limited newspaper including the Heraldscum.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm
guytaur
abbott is on. I cant bear to listen
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Mr Albanese: We have to respect the separation of Judicial from State based functions of government.
This is going away. Much as Abbot is trying to declare him guilty.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Guytaur – I hate to say but we have to get real. Nothing, absolutely nothing sticks to Abbott and never will until we have a media/shockjocks who report evenhandedly.
The twitterverse is alive with senior journos, commentators, etc. absolutely whacking Abbott’s declarations of himself being so wonderful. If the cartoons were the front pages, instead of the likes of Shamaham, Abbott would be done like a dinner.
Labor will wear this around their necks – as Fran Kelly says – Abbott ‘commands the space’ and don’t they just love giving it to him.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
TP @ 733
We could equally apply the Rudd test too.
Look this is politics, many people pick their sides and then judge everything through the prism of their side of politics. People on this board are complaining about trial by media. This pales into insignificance with the far more common method of determination of fact in politics,
Trial by identity
by Scrutineer on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm