Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Alternative news service:
1. http://theconversation.edu.au/is-australia-at-risk-from-green-terrorists-6523
Activists or terrorists? Watch out you are under surveillance.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/fears-over-coal-seam-gas-mining-push-country-women-to-protest-20120420-1xcce.html
3. Lenore Taylor on Christine Milne’s tour of regional and rural areas:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/working-for-greens-and-country-20120420-1xc8n.html
by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
victoria
Yes. Getting the same way but I grit my teeth as need to know.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
guytaur
Was Albo on before Abbott?
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Was it the same, or was it consensual?
If the former, then it does impact on Abbott, if it was the latter then it was completely correct to just say “ignore it” IMO, otherwise you are saying that the offence is homosexuality, rather than alleged sexual harassment.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm
victoria
Yes he was
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Mike Carlton’’s transcript of what Gillard should have said in her speech on Afghanistan:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/a-return-home-or-near-enough-to-it-20120420-1xcn7.html
Scott Ludlam on Afghanistan:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3958290.html
by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Mod Lib/753
It seems you do not understand the term exactly.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Bwahaha – well rationalised. No need for a court case as there is no case. The ‘vicitim’ is just….what a jilted, jealous admirer or some such??
If this were the Howard govt and the accuser female…I can just imagine your rationalisation would turn 180 degress.
God, so we gonna get pages of hand wringing of how this is nothing, and nasty accuser should just go away and shut (at least until after the election).
Meanwhile Gillard and her team of neo-con-Americans set about harassing Assange’s human rights lawyer (and using US teminology – making it clear where the collusion occurred). So really, Gillard govt through its security services can say an Australian can’t return to Australia??
Veiled threats anyone? Obviously the US getting upset they cant get their hands on Assange as easily as they thought, getting grumpy. Poor Assange if they do. Think they will try the death penalty on him? Their is a sealed charge against him over there, they managed to invent something. Meanwhile the real criminals that bought the global financial system to its knees through massive corruption, the banks/ters, not one jailed.
by Thomas. Paine on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Gary,
I too used to write Thomas off as an irrelevant dissident, reeling with anger, as he does, at the destruction of Kevin Rudd.
Thomas’s pathological hatred is certainly a touch bizzare, but you know what? He’s been right all along, and, as it turns out, those of us who have refused to accept that knifing Rudd was a monumental blunder have been proven dreadfully wrong.
Good on you Thomas. You’ve stuck to your guns and you’ve prevailed.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:10 pm
1. Reactions of the vested interests in the superannuation industry to possible cuts to super tax concessions:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/super-industry-warns-on-cutting-concessions-20120420-1xcpp.html
2. Peter Hartcher on the mining boom:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rescuing-the-booms-benefits-20120420-1xclh.html
Perhaps some of the resources directed towards a minority of individuals on unemployment benefits who commit fraud could be better spent on fraud committed by employment agencies.
3. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/job-agencies-facing-fraud-inquiry-after-audit-of-fees-20120420-1xcfz.html
4. Sarah Toohey, Campaign Director of Australians for Affordable Housing, on how the politics of housing is locking out affordable solutions:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3961138.html
by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Drake
For all we know Rudd could have lost the 2010 election comprehensively.
We can only proceed on reality and not the fantasy of what ifs’.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:13 pm
The DT article on Ashby/Slipper is revealing. If the DT reporting is accurate, almost without exception, all allegations made relate to conversations and actions ie, “I said he said” stuff. But very difficult to prove.
Unless the DT is holding back other content, the worst that can be said about Slipper’s text messages is that some were signed off with a “xxx”. Ok, odd, but hardly determinative of itself (and assuming the texts do exist).
What else do we know? Ashby says he’s gay. Ok. He shared a flat with Slipper and another staffer. Nothing too strange about that in Canberra, to take advantage of Travel Allowance benefits. He was an LNP member until joining Slipper’s staffer in December. Hmmmm. Not Pete’s smartest move.
The interesting thing to me is the timeline and the speed with which court proceedings have commenced. It was only this week that the Sunshine Coast Daily reported on an altercation between Ashby and one of its staffers on 7 March. The report also implies that Ashby was still on Slipper’s staff at the date of the report – 17 April. And yet proceedings were commenced on 20 April and front page news on 21 April!
My own limited experience of such matters is that timelines are usually much longer? The odor of fish is very strong…
Politics anyone?
A final comment: compare this episode with the reporting of Senator Fisher’s legal woes. I note that Senator Fisher was eventually convicted of assault. My recollection is that reporting of the proceedings was restrained.
by Outsider on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:13 pm
ML
I should have included more of the article. The 2003 stuff included sexual harassment allegations.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:14 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/20/citigroup-ceo-directors-sued-pay-packages_n_1440984.html
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:15 pm
I’m not a legal expert, but from what I can gather on twitter, the allegations against Slipper come from legal documents for a federal court CIVIL proceeding. Not a CRIMINAL proceeding. Any adverse judgment from this would not mean he has to vacate his seat.
That would suggest a lot of the political commentary about this is gross overreach not to mention a nasty smear about Slipper’s sexual preferences. Clearly designed to taint the government and in particularly Gillard.
Also not surprising that Abbott would jump all over it (okay for him to say Slipper should be presumed innocent, but not okay for Thomson).
by spur212 on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:16 pm
The inevitable from Tony Abbott.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:17 pm
spur
The AFP is investigating something about CabCharges as well, which would be a criminal investigation, but clearly not something you could have to resign from Parlt over.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Very contradictory that. You reject “what ifs”, yet postulate that Rudd could have suffered a comprehensive defeat. What is your rationale for that? Was Rudd not well ahead in his last poll? Are you saying that Rudd’s removal has no effect in the mind of voters?
As for fantasy versus reality, the reality is that Labor have spiralled downwards since Rudd was removed and it is a fantasy to think they will somehow resurrect themselves.
Anyway, we’ve all done this argument to death. Let us see what happens.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:21 pm
vic,
It’s fluff.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Apparently Abbott has a long list of pollies who should “step aside”, presumably to leave open the space he craves.
I’ve no objection to someone longing to get the ruling position in order to improve the nation, but when it’s just raw ambition, I fear it.
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Diogs,
$170 worth of Cabcharge. Seriously.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Legal people does this reporting on front page and editorials before court case comes to a decision amount to homophobia. Could this breach laws governing hate speech in any way? The last time we saw allegations against a guy with wife and kids it was David Campbell for doing a perfectly legal activity. So is this a homophobic attack by a News Organisation?
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Diogenes 693 “It allegedly happened AFTER Slipper became Speaker.”
Which is precisely why the allegations are so dangerous for Labor.
The evidence is in the emails and texts. Given that Ashby is being represented by those celebrity harassment lawyers it would be extraordinary if they turned out to be forgeries.
The timing and the media strategy would have been decided by the lawyers – not the media organisation they chose for the story.
It is utterly beyond me as to why Labor made itself hostage in the first place, after what happened with Thompson. Of course, they were aware at the time they were going to shaft Wilkie and this was the insurance – but the risks!!!! So predictable then, and now has come to pass.
This is the Labor appointed Speaker of the parliament, for god’s sake!!! The Speaker they poached off the Libs for their own political gain.
Will be truly amazed if Gillard doesn’t have to ask him to stand aside before the next sitting until the civil case has been heard. Labor could. not.possibly have him presiding over the Budget session, of all events, could they? But this mob is capable of anything.
by Bar Bar on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Well, at least many have seen Nessie:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/slipper-horrified-by-threat-to-show-office-video-20111126-1o0ax.html#ixzz1sdb6Dj22
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
GG
It is fluff, but not for the msm, the coalition and their cheersquad. They want Slipper vacated from the chair as he is doing a good job and gives the govt an extra vote.
It is another unwanted distraction for the govt, and for the msm to focus on.
There are internal ruptions in the coalition, and Abbott is handed another lifeline. Coincidence? No frickin way!!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Tony huffing and puffing again, I see. There’s been an allegation against Slipper, so Tony should be PM, eh?
by Aguirre on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
bar Bar,
Welcome to a our latest Liberal bootstrapper.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
GG, just as well we dont have death penalty, else it would be an appropriate punishment
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Howard’s privatisation of unemployment (if you’ll excuse the phrase) was bound to lead to this sort of scam. Too easy to churn the unemployed.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/job-agencies-facing-fraud-inquiry-after-audit-of-fees-20120420-1xcfz.html
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:26 pm
I wonder if any of those texts came from Godwin Grant?
by Aguirre on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:27 pm
vic,
I don’t think the Government have even made a statement. Is that a yawn?
The only distraction today is Carlton v Essendon.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Bar Bar
I doubt the texts are fake but I also doubt Slipper would send them to someone who wasn’t reciprocating to some extent.
by Diogenes on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Carn the Blues!!!!
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Finns,
Being bored to death is the best we can hope for.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm
I know conspiracy theories are ridiculous to contemplate but could the LNP Feds be holding something against Ashby much worse than this Slipper he said/she said. Has he agreed to help out for some reason. Nothing is too dirty for the Libs to do to win office as we well know. Labor’s dirt is usually chucked at their own.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm
GG
Apparently Albo has made a statement. Although I have not seen or know precisely what he said
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm
BarBar.
It is easy to make allegations. Proof is much more difficult. Assumptions are dangerous.
So far, we have a lot of allegations. What can be proved is a different matter altogether… The fact a law firm is prepared to take on a case proves nothing. I note the complainant in the Commonwealth Bank sexual harassment case is facing an adverse costs order of $5.8m. I seriously doubt that the firm representing her will collect its fees!!
by Outsider on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Bar Bar,
The powerbrokers in the ALP, including Gillard, who consorted with the big miners to remove Rudd have been forced ever since into a string of desperate high-risk decisions to avoid losing government and then being held to account for killing the goose that laid the golden egg.
A litany of mindless blunders, frankly.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:31 pm
GG
News 24 Gives Albo statement a run at the top of their news bulletin.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:32 pm
Drake
and
You are absolutely spot on! It was a huge error born out of blind ambition.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:33 pm
drake
As opposed to the mindless blunders by. Rudd whilst PM.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Diogenes. Have I missed something with the texts? What did Slipper’s text allegedly say? (beyond the odd “xxxx” sign offs)
by Outsider on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:33 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/20/wayne-rooney-phone-hacking
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:34 pm
MTBW
Your what if fantasy is that Rudd would have stayed popular and not made more blunders like he had before.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:35 pm
guytaur
But Rudd did not make blunders after as FM. Look at his conduct over the past 18 months culminating in his disgraceful resignation FM. some dont see the trees for the forest quite frankly.
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Did he say he was underwhelmed?
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:37 pm
guytaur
Just to clarify I was being ironic in my last post
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:38 pm
I sign my text messages to my wife with x, xx, xxx, xxxx and she accuses me of sexual harassment, so i harass her
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:38 pm
lizzie – surprise, surprise! I have seen the results in our area of that churn. It’s disgusting. They put the wrong people in a job, give them false hope and then do it over again when the person is found not suitable. It’s just money through the door to them – nothing much to do with suitable placements or replacing their personal phone calls with something related to employment.
I didn’t believe it until a young girl up here asked me to go with her. I kid you not but we waited 20 minutes while the darling work placement officer talked about her evening out. I was ready to get up and make a fuss but the young girl asked me not to because it would jeopardise her. I was ropeable and I don’t know how the unemployed who are desperate for work can stand it.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Vic,
Rudd was the guy who, through his own political talent, led us out of the wilderness, delivering government with a solid majority.
Look at us now.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 12:39 pm