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Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Th

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Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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3538 comments

3,538 thoughts on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

  1. The Rudd Rabids are out tonight. Time their Mummies put them to bed.

    A few things they ignore:

    Rudd is loathed in the Queensland Public Service – known as Dr Death.
    Rudd was a lousy PM and FM – antgonising the Chinese and appointing that clod Downer being but two of his many stuffups.
    Less than one third of his colleagues supported him.
    As soon as he sooked and got his stupid self dumped from Cabinet, the leaks stopped.
    As a result of the above and similar, he has no show of ever being reinstated with Labor despite what the pompous Bemused et al have to say.

    Get over it.

  2. My heavens what a night shift as soon as I saw the start of the names(appologies to some PBs as I scrolled through like Confessions Burgey Gary etc ) I just went to the morning shift Have already sent off a comment to Steve Lewis article re all this happened while he was Lib MP and how about asking Tony Abbott about what he knew about his good friend Peter etc don’t think it will be published, heard Craig Emerson come out fighting

  3. Heard Windsor on the local radio, he can not support the coalition

    Until all of slipper’s past dealings have been investigated which included , the liberal party and , what did Abbott and the former howard government ministers and who else was involved knew

    He also hinted Abbott can not really try to get the other independents on his side because he was the leader who could have stopped slipper from running in 2010

  4. Morning all – Ducky, I heard Tony Windsor on RN. He said wtte Abbott is always threatening ‘no confidence’ motions and nothing comes of them. Said he would only look at it if corruption is involved.

    Said Slipper was right to stand down but he remembers Greiner who was charged with corruption, forced to resign by the Liberals and was subsequently found innocent, so he will let things take their course.

  5. morning all
    fran worked very hard and after a lengthy interview finally got tony windsor to say something remotely negative about the govt – ie he would look closely at any increases in excise – although they may only be rumours! well done fran! now for michelle later…

  6. Rephrase Windsor “if there’s a finding of corruption and the Government is involved” he will only look at a no confidence vote at that stage – pertinent words “and the Government is involved”. No chance of that with Gillard at the helm.

    I hope Labor has lots of info re the Howard Govt.’s involvement in protecting Slipper from the allegations in previous years. That is dodgy.

  7. It seems that the media is using Prof John Williams, Constitutional expert, from Qld – Rowlands tried hard to get him to say the Govt. would fall. He doesn’t think they will but admits the minority govt has been a constitutional lawyers dream. He can say that again with Abbott as loto (from now on Abbott doesn’t deserve the respect of capital letters).

  8. Hearings will resume in the week commencing 23 April 2012. All of the proceedings will be shown here live.

    Hearings will normally be held Monday to Thursday between 10am and 4:30pm with a break for lunch between 1 and 2pm.

    h­ttp://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/hearings/

    A detailed description of Jay’s background and style:

    Robert Jay is the leading counsel in a team of three barristers who have grilled Leveson inquiry witnesses since November

    He has prosecuted multinationals for dumping toxic waste off the west coast of Africa and defended the government over alleged colonial atrocities in Kenya. And on Wednesday Robert Jay QC will come face to face with Rupert Murdoch at the Leveson inquiry.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/22/robert-jay-leveson-rupert-murdoch

    lisaocarroll: Rupert Murdoch to appear at Leveson ALL day Wed and half day Thursday. James ALL day Monday. Lebedev and Barclay Mon. http://t.co/gCaieEN4

  9. BK – did you say something norty at 3000? Surely not! That cartoon this morning was good but hard to look at. It conjured up vivid images.

  10. BH
    This is what I emailed.
    [Without News Ltd beat-ups you’d be scratching to put a program together.
    How about examining policies and lack thereof.]

  11. The independents should try to make the liberal party stand down Abbott

    The hypocrisy from Abbott is un believable

    He is the leader of the party who protected slipper whe nhe was an liberal party member

  12. Morning bludgers

    It appears our esteemed journos do not have to do any policy analysis again. They were the ones that gave us Ruddstoration for months and predicted his return to the leadership. Now we are getting the doomsday scenarios re Slipper. They were right about Rudd. Oh wait……..

  13. The #SlipperGate is smelling to me more and more like the #UteGate – Interesting times indeed

    [BLOWBACK: Peter Slipper saga might end up bad news for the Coalition, – By VEXNEWS ⋅ April 23, 2012:

    * Sources familiar with the Speaker’s expense claim say that far from rorting his parliamentary travel entitlements with Cabcharges that his use of them, complained about by Ashby as apparently dodgy, will check out as legitimate, with many other MPs also using limousine services, some favouring them over the more expensive taxpayer-owned Comcar. It seems weird that a private limo service would cost more than Comcar but we are reliably told that is the case and that some MPs prefer private operators as a result. This seems to be particularly the case with Queensland MPs.

    * However, there are dark mutterings about the James Ashby saga, which, if true, could create an enormous stink for the Coalition. The story goes like this:

    That many in Liberal circles believed that Peter Slipper had entanglements with staff member or members in the past but they couldn’t prove anything. (VEXNEWS readers will recall our reporting of these rumours a long time ago). That someone in the LNP convinced James Ashby – an openly gay and politically ambitious journalist/spin doctor – to work for Slipper with a view to digging up dirt on Slipper and acting in some kind of honey-trap, as it is referred to in espionage.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/20/morgan-phone-poll-57-43-to-coalition/

  14. Good to see Labor squirming around Slipper. Still no open talk about how politically stupid gillard was in choosing slipper and her failure in general as pm without integrity.

  15. The interesting thing about the allegations against Rudd – serial leaking and destabilisation, the unforgiveable element being that he would flout the wishes of caucus in order to give certain interest groups what they wanted – is that no one in the position to know has ever denied them.

    No journos, including those involved, have denied that Rudd selectively leaked to four of them.

    No MP, aligned with Rudd, nor Rudd himself, has come out and said that the claims Rudd leaked were false.

    No MP, aligned with Rudd, or Rudd himself, or any of the organisations involved, have come out and said that Rudd did not promise those organisations favours if he was returned to the PMship.

    Why not?

  16. [Good to see Labor squirming around Slipper. Still no open talk about how politically stupid gillard was in choosing slipper and her failure in general as pm without integrity.]
    You can’t condemn Gillard without condemning Abbott.

  17. Fins

    [Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 7:31 am | Permalink
    The #SlipperGate is smelling to me more and more like the #UteGate – Interesting times indeed]

    I see your blasting off the reservation for conspiracy and BEYOND………

  18. Slipper, we must remember, has been investigated over travel rorts before and cleared.
    I have a strong feeling that it will be the case again. If that failed the civil charge would be weaker, to some extent, because that is also a direct accusation from Ashby.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-30/slipper-cleared-over-entitlement-
    spending/3800930

    Slipper would know to be very careful, unlike Lewis who has already proved to be very sloppy with the facts, as a journalist.

  19. Slipper’s still a sore spot for you libs, Rummel?

    Just imagine! If only Abbott was politically skilled enough to keep Slipper on the Coalition benches. Then when Wilkie spat the dummy, it would have been all over for Labor. If Crook, Katter and Wilkie could have been convinced to support a no confidence motion, Abbott would have been Prime Minister!

    But that’s not the way it happened, was it? Face it, your leader is the failure through and through.

  20. Gary

    I will condemn the libs for not getting rid of him quick enough, though he was getting the boot. Then came along a desperate PM who would sell her soul to a green dream looking for some legitimacy and saved Slipper. With all her political wisdom she put him in one of the highest jobs in the land. Nice job Gillard.

  21. rumple, how can you neocons use the word integrity? It surprised me you can even spell it, let alone understand what it means

  22. zoomster

    Of course this latest saga re Slipper was always about regime change. We are constantly being reminded that the coalition will win in a landslide in 17 months, why cant they wait?

  23. I have been thinking about the Slipper appointment. I retrospect, given the hung parliament and the objectionable Abbott, even if I knew the appointment might blow up in my face, I would have still put Slipper in as speaker if I was PM.

    Why? Because any time Slipper was in the chair gave that extra bit of wriggle room to get crucial legislation across the HOR line.

  24. Sorry Von

    Slipper was being booted because he was a trouble. Labor may be happy to use such people to remain in government but I’m very happy he is not a lib anymore.

    The damage gillard has self inflected on her self is icing on the cake. The PM is a rank Amatuer compared to keven Rudd.

  25. SK

    Of course it was to get the wriggle room the PM needed. But know the govt need the numbers for the budget and the likes of Crook, Katter and Wilkie may play hard ball. The timing of This latest saga is to disrupt the budget. As Puff and others have asked, has the govt wargamed this situation?

  26. [I will condemn the libs for not getting rid of him quick enough, though he was getting the boot.]
    No, they did more than that. They hid his short comings. Abbott even tried to explain them away. Answer this rummel, why did this not come to a head a lot earlier?