Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Capital Hill featuring Afghanistan
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:32 pm
jenauthor
I dont blame you for being mad. These past few years have been utterly frustrating. When will the worm turn?
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Thank you maquire bob
Thats before the hockey thing and only judt on time but not noted for the bonus payments, and now the age policy
I get the feeling you know more than u let on love your posts
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:33 pm
TLBD
BOF has to get serious. Too many shootings costing him in polling.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Absolutely dreadful polling of recent times for the Govt.
However, I find it interesting that BOTH Hockey and Turnbull are in the news talking widely about either the entitlement thingo or Howard and Costello pissing it all up against the wall. Is this s concerted effort from the 2 pretenders to the LOTO post? A joint ticket? JoHo as leader and MT as Treasurer?
Glad the election is not being held tomorrow.
by Lynchpin on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:33 pm
What’s with Turnbull being honest today – firstly about Howard/Costello/Hockey/MT being slack and wasteful with money and now
by BH on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:34 pm
When Abbott loses.
by Lynchpin on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Very true SK. I have to admit I enjoyed studying economics, financial management and stats. I think I’m a bit strange.
by davidwh on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:35 pm
BH
See my post above. I smell something in the air. And I hope it is the smell of burning budgie smugglers.
by Lynchpin on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
BH
Must be leadership spill season. Takes some time to build up to it.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
From what I gather they are shot in UK, in Athens an awful lot of homelessness especially people who 2 years ago were in good jobs. When I first went over to the UK in 1991 it was a case of find the house that wasn’t for sale , don’t think it is quite as bad there yet!
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Yep, Joe did not meet Clive Palmer to discuss diet tips.
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Abbott doesn’t need to read Labor policies. Today he said on 2GB that it was enough to know this was a Labor policy for him to conclude it couldn’t possibly work.
God damn you Rudd, for caving in on Pink Batts. It validated EVERYTHING they’d been saying about the government and gave an excuse to condemn every other thing that labor had done to rescue the nation from the GFC, to the point where a majority seem to believe there was no GFC, just an excuse for Labor to send the country broke.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:38 pm
I wonder how Hadley and Jones will represent the changes to aged care.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:39 pm
ru
Yeah Joe had to be make sure he was clear of CIA involvement. No closet greens leading the liberals.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:39 pm
@conceravota I am barking madddddd!!!!!!!!!! – why do you think i did BISONs. i was FUCKING maddddd too
by The Finnigans on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm
I tweeted Paul B last week and asked him about something he tweeted and didn’t appear on Sydney ch 10, he answered and said he reported it on Brisbane Adelaide and Brisbane I think he said. Obviously Hugh R seems to be mainly on Sydney and Melbourne, wonder why?
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/warragamba-bursts-flood-warning-issued-20120420-1xc6x.html
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm
See my #114: it’s Labor, so it’s bound to fail.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm
BB
Hear Hear. Your tail feathers are safe.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:42 pm
(Absolutely dreadful polling of recent times for the Govt.)
This gap of 10 doesnt worry me at all. Only 10 in 100 need to change andwith that i read that here
very small sample
And margin of error and mobile phone its most likley less
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:42 pm
BK,
They will report that there is not enough kerosene in the policy.
by Space Kidette on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:43 pm
BB
I’m afraid you have exactly nailed it. Pink batts and BER program successes must be properly explained again and again. And there is no easy way. Perhaps they should get some well researched reviews and opinions and shove them down the MSM’s throat and call them out on it when they won’t report it.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:43 pm
my say
Agree. Plus given dates less difference now too.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Bushfire
Rudd got so many good vibes for apologising to the Stolen Gens that he thought (following Beattie) that it would always suffice. I sympathise with your frustration.
by lizzie on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Kidette
Norty!!
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:44 pm
children pay for their parents aged care #oh
Hope she means it what an assett to labor
1
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
BB and BK
What Rudd should have done was set up a Royal Commission into workplace safety in Queensland standards regarding roofing. That is the State at fault. Was not national problem from memory.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
davidwh
Econometrics ? Try some hot hot chemometrics
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:45 pm
guytar
SA had proper accreditation for “pink batt” contractors. We had negligible safety problems.
by BK on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Perhaps by the time I go O/s end of May and in UK middle of July the Murdochs will be languishing in Jail, wishful thinking I know but want to play Hallelujah courtesy of Poroti
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:47 pm
crossing fingers for you there Mari
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:48 pm
mari
Just think,whilst in Ingurland you could, if the mood takes you, go and listen to the wonderful choir that sang Hallelujah in the clip
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:49 pm
http://abetz.com.au/news/strike-first-talk-later-confirmed-by-federal-court-jj-richards-decision
Eric baby not happy!!!
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:49 pm
So am I plus a few toes etc as is Poroti and I guess a lot of other PBs
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm
guytaur
It was a Queensland problem and from memory charges were brought against some of the installers.
by MTBW on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:51 pm
This is a Test Match between Australia and New Zealand. Sack the lot of em Conroy. I want my stream TV.
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:52 pm
You are so right one of the people I am visiting isn’t too far from there, and he hates Conservatives over their (Tories so libs here)
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Singapore has a Maintenance of Parents Act, children have legal obligation to take care of their elderly parents, failing which parents can sue their children for a monthly allowance.
by The Finnigans on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Now that Can Do has won can Fed Labor go hard on difference of Qld safety compared to everywhere else? Making clear to average voter that it was a state problem not a federal labor one?
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:54 pm
BK 124
couldn’t agree more… perhaps a tweet to team gillard or could i do it for you?
by Lyne Lady on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:55 pm
guytaur
What a stupid headline.
by CTar1 on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Hugh tweeting is not Hugh on TV. Channel X fail.
by This little black duck on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:55 pm
mari
Perhaps PB could take up a collection so if you drop in to see them you can bribe the choir master to insert Hallelujah into their program
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:57 pm
There’s no way back from the perception of pink batts and BER. Rudd said sorry for Pink Batts and Gillard said government had lost its way. Facts don’t help overcome embedded perception.
Just keep delivering solid policy. Libs will have enough internal problems of their own which polls do not solve. The better polling gets for Abbott, the more the traditional Liberals will fear his power will be unshakable after election.
Many of the old style Libs have been thinking they can win with Tony, then restrain him afterwards, back away from tax on business, direct action etc and go back to more traditional Liberal policies. Won’t happen if he wins a massive victory, so they have to take him down before poll.
Might be counter-intuitive, but Abbott could actually become a victim of his own success as a big poll buffer might convince Hockey/Turnbull they can make change and still win comofortably.
by roaldan1000 on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Ctar
I saw the headline and posted straight away. Did not read article. I guess SMH must not have learnt the Orson Wells lesson about sending out information.
It seems even messing about with warnings concerning safety do not matter anymore.
by guytaur on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:58 pm
From the Liberal Party website. Gee, I hope they are right.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:59 pm
rua,
Serious stuff. I’m sure the TV news will have the results before the poloi can watch it.
by This little black duck on Apr 20, 2012 at 5:59 pm