Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Hey @TonyAbbottMHR , if you have balls, why dont you move an urgent non confidence motion on the Speaker when the Parliament resumes
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Is that clown still on with the “It’s a tax” line?
Why does William tolerate this para-trolling?
by Cuppa on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Mod Lib and Ctar1
I want you to understand where I see the homophobia. It is the decision to publish in such and extensive way. This could have been reported on the political pages with a headline. Speaker accused of Sexual Harassment. That way Speaker Gay Sex Scandal does not appear outside every newsagent.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
What makes you think they’re not able to post their opinion?
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
I should hope not. Team labor would be screaming blue murder again about sexsim.
If the current standing of the Labor party equals Abbott not landing a blow yet, Labor should really stop all the self inflected kicks in the head then.
by rummel on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
guytaur
You may be right to a point about the genesis but common decency would surely mean that we can have a civil discussion without the all the vehemence.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2012/04/21/putting-the-boot-into-a-slipper/
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
David. Just a couple of points. The action against Slipper is a civil matter. He is not facing criminal charges, so technically the presumption of innocence stuff is irrelevant. You also indicate Slipper should step aside if there is a “reasonable case” against him, in your view. Fair enough, that’s your view, but if that standard applied in any situation where an MP is facing civil litigation, there’d be an awful lot of MPs “stepping aside”.
But for the life of me, can you seriously put your hand on your heart, based own what we know of Ashby’s allegations, that there is a “reasonable case” against Slipper? From what I’ve seen, there would be faint chance indeed that any court will find in Ashby’s favor. Certainly nowhere near your standard of a “reasonable case”. And in any event, who is goingd to make that assessment of what is a reasonable case?
This where there is a major difference between criminal and civil litigation. Within reason, anyone can make a claim against anyone else where they believe they have been wronged, and file an action in the court. This is what Ashby has done. A criminal prosecution will only be instituted after a police investigation and, in many cases, a review by the DPP, before the matter goes to trial. And even then, we have the presumption of innocence. I think there is a degree of silliness in your suggestion, or at least impracticality.
by Outsider on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
And equally those that disagree a entitled to theirs.
by fredn on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Mod Lib what happened to David Campbell was adisgrace and showed the hypocrisy of the media. In the first months of the O’Farell government a Lib minister was questioned by police about commiting an indecent act in a Surry Hills laneway. The police did not proceed and the media have never namec the minister.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Patricia
Rabbott would be happy either way.
Slipper was branded a traitor & accused of doing a deal with the ALP.
Anyone associated with the ALP is a crook, a liar, cannot be trusted.
It’s all about building on those perceptions.
by Dee on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:44 pm
guytaur:
There is no doubt that homophobia still exists in this country, although i think there is equally no doubt it is on the way out. Fewer and fewer people care about whether someone is gay or not, but that is not to say that it is not tantalising, as an additional angle to a political scandal.
There are some circumstances when I think it is reasonable to ‘out’ a politician- when they are claiming the family value vote (like the Lib candidate for Parramatta, Ross Cameron), or where there is an allegation against them is made (as in this case). It is very difficult for the media not to report such allegations.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:45 pm
So some guy accuses another guy of making a pass, what is your problem?
by fredn on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:45 pm
rua – I had forgotten that but look how Turnbull avoided having to face the Court. The HIH failure hurt a lot of small people and Turnbull, it was alleged, was one of the blokes who helped set up that failure. Many of those who lost money are now probably on Abbott’s side because Malcolm was protected in the media from getting a share of the publicity at the time. Joe Hockey is no clean skin on the matter either.
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Outsider,
It’s a classic shake down.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Mod Lib
Ask yourself this. Would this story have been rushed to print on such apparently sketchy evidence as published to date, if it was a woman not a man in this case?
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:47 pm
So the sexual harrassment accuser grows strawberries and his water for irrigation was poisoned twice. Hmmm….
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/strawberry-poisoning-bid-foiled/story-fn6ck45n-1226059915238
Anyhow off to dinner. Buon appetito!!
by victoria on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Not at all, it was your sidekick, rummel.
The idiot way you both carry on about nothing makes it difficult to tell the difference between you and him.
Both huffing and puffing for all you are worth.
by muttleymcgee on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
fredn
No argument from me there as long as we are civil to each other.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
West Australian political news, from the ABC State Political Reporter in Perth
by Leroy on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
The obvious problem with the “stand aside until cleared” approach is that with so many party operatives who seem to think that supporting their party is something closer to a religious duty than a political choice, there would be no end of allegations against no end of politicians and no end of standing asides until the whole government became inoperable…
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Guytaur what I was saying is that anyone who holds a government position regardless of whether they are Howard, Newman, Slipper who are asked to answer charges authorities believe have sufficient substance should step aside from the position while the charges are answered. I also said right at the beginning that was not the case with Slipper based on what we know now.
I’m not really sure where all the anger is coming from because that seems to be a reasonable position and one which is generally followed by all sides of politics.
by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Mod, what about the current LOTO?
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
CTar1,
With all the Peter Slipper stuff today, I thought it was, well…, topical.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:48 pm
leone
:applause: ditto
OC – will get mari to request your email address from william and contact you….
by Lyne Lady on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:49 pm
guytaur @ 1202
It’s big news as it is a serious allegation attempting to force him to retire and was always going to be front page.
It is distasteful but that’s the way politics/news works.
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:49 pm
An allegation of sexual assault against a Speaker who had defected from his party to support a minority government teetering on the edge of oblivion…
Damn right I reckon it would have been reported!
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Heck of a way to be outed…
Father (yes) Peter Slipper is the Chancellor of the Anglo-Catholic Church in Oz.
by Graeme Orr on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:51 pm
BB
lets hope slipper has a good silk….
by Lyne Lady on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:51 pm
The only reason abbott goes about the Great CT Lye is it is all he has got, it is the fiberals have got, it is all their supporters have got. And it is the offspring of Tony Abbott’s racism.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:52 pm
OC
Totally agree and didn’t the journo Adam Walters have his reputation trashed over that?
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:52 pm
LL mari has been in contact I will RSVP her
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Mod Lib
I have to ask. Are you an editor of a News Limited Paper?
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
@KRuddMP Mr. Rudd, what is your comment on the allegation against your good friend the Speaker?
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
to which I reply:
to which you reply:
This seems a little like you making a false allegation against me, finding out it was actually another poster, and then following that admission up with not so much of an apology, as another insult.
I guess this is what MTBW was referring to eh?:
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Distasteful as it was,
why do you think it wasn’t front page news prior to 2007?
Then between 2007 and late 2011?
Anything to do with Coalition numbers?
Couldn’t be, could it!
Those harbingers of lousehood FORGOT
about the rumours.
Until now, of course.
They’re so damn predictable
about honour
when it doesn’t affect them.
What do we call that?
OPPORTUNISM??
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
No
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Ctar1
I am not arguing about reporting the story. I am saying that the rush to publish with sketchy facts and in such a big way reeks to me of Homophobia.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Possibly but I thought his Reputation had already been spoiled by being Reba Meagher’s F buddy. Allegedly his actions were some sort of revenge for the long overdue dropping of Reba
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Fredn please point out where I said I have a problem with a guy making a pass at another guy?
Actually the allegation that is most concerning is the one the FP are investigating expense claims but they are only allegations at this point.
by davidwh on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Drake
Topical – tick
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm
plus, the more important objective: #RegimeChange
by The Finnigans on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Mod Lib
Glad to hear it. Though it sounded like you could be. Careful or you will be in same gutter journo alley as them.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:57 pm
No. I don’t think there would be any public necessity for outing the current LOTO if he were gay.
If he pontificated on how he was a bastion of integrity and wanted everyone to be like him (like some Republicans do in the USA) then, yes, go for it. You cannot do it just because someone claims to be of a particular religion, only if they pontificate…thats my view anyway.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:58 pm
HAhahahahahahhahahahhaahaha
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Mod Lib
Abbott pontificates. See Marriage Equality.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 6:59 pm
OC – just saw your message. Great. I’ll get mari or lynelady to contact you
by BH on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Sexual assault claims and how any party deserves natural justice are not new to Tony Abbott as he was actually charged with indecent assault. I wonder if he has considered Mr Slippers situation in the light he proposed here, in his own defence, of much more serious claims?
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/17/1089694611809.html
by joe2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Gillard has the exact same view as Abbott, and she is an atheist, so how can you accuse Abbott of pontificating?
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:01 pm