Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
ML
How long did it take for you to come to this realisation.
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:23 pm
But wait, there’s more
Climate change cage match: Abbott debates Abbott
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/09/climate-change-cage-match-abbott-debates-abbott/
by Cuppa on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
kezza2 @ 1273
I think ww’re on the same page. I’m a fairly staid 50 something hetrosexual but I find nothing wrong with gays/lesbians and basically don’t care if people are or aren’t.
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Well that is news to the HREOC .
by ruawake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Notwithstanding your description (or perhaps because of it
) I hope he does come back. He is a thinker if nothing else, although further to the right than I would like.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Cuppa, how long would Abbott last if the media wanted to get rid of him with all the information they could use on him?
I would say 3 weeks!
Take your pick on any issue, from his chauvenist pig personality and swearing to 10.5 billion black hole.
C’mon Mod Lib, how long would the
last?
by Centre on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Heres a thought
If slipper stands down, then officially gives his support to the liberal party as an independent
If the government played their cards right, the independents could support an investigation into the liberal party about their claims about slipper
Then the pressure would be on Abbott to stand down as the leader
by Meguire Bob on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Maybe it will come out that the LNP has been advising/controlling Ashby and Ashby will drop his suit? Only way out I can see at this stage.
by Bar Bar on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Sexual Assault is a criminal matter. Sexual Harassment can be just a civil matter as is alleged in this case so far.
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:28 pm
The forces of Murdoch evil are unrelenting. That and the toll of a long flight would be difficult for anyone. Fortunately he is a strong soul.
by joe2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:29 pm
LOL consistency on climate change?
How many more positions has Abbott had on climate change?
More positions than a monkey at the zoo!
by Centre on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Hi just come home, dirty stop out I am, I have sent you an email, with all relevant info, if you could let me know you have received it please.So pleased as there will be 100% turnout for this inaugural meeting of the Mid North Coast Poll Bludgers, sure all will have a good time
by mari on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
ModLib
What is the reality of the legislation?
“This is a political blog, I am a political tragic, the PM stuffing up at a press conference on an absolutely pivotal politcal issue in terms of tactics and strategy would appear to be a very appropriate thing for me to comment on here.”
Your claim has changed here. Earlier you were using her comments as evidence of it BEING a tax.
sure you can talk about this bbeing an error, as it was, but if you acknowledge it was an error you have to withdraw the claim that it is a tax. Are you conceding this is not actually a tax.
“The only poster asking for people to stop attacking me personally, as you are doing, and rather talking about the issues, is MTBW.”
I am not attacking you personally I am saying you opinions are stupid. You are not your opinions.
“I have said before, the problem for the PM is what she said before the election. If it was not the case that “There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” she should not have said it. ”
Most people already agree with that. It’s a statement of the obvious. It’s the next step in your logic path that fails.
“In my view we are more sophisticated than the politicians give us credit for, and if they said something like “It is not our intention to introduce a carbon tax, we are going to introduce another policy, called a CPRS” that would be fine. When you make an unequivocal statement you can be called on it if you back down.”
Did she say they were going to put a price on carbon emissions?
by Astrobleme on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
In NSW, common law rape has been replaced by s61I Sexual Assault. See s61HA for the consent requirement. Sexual harrassment is not a form of sexual assault, or common law assault, as there need be no apprehension of imminent unlawful contact.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
CTar1
I should have put a space between my first comment “I agree” and the rest of my post.
We’re on the same team – age, sexuality (who gives a stuff which way you go)-wise, that is.
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
joe2
I think he was still in the US looked like an airport. There was one journo there.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Who is Reba (Meagher) ?
The personification of all that is wrong in the NSW ALP
Of course Cameron’s father, Jim, was an even bigger hypocrite than the son. A Santimonious God botherer who was the only member of the NSW parliament who voted against the organ transplant bill because it was against the will of God. Well guess what. Several years later he needed a heart transplant. But don’t worry, he did the right thing and prayed to Lord Jesus – fortunately Jesus came back and said it was OK for him especially to have the transplant. Initialln a Liberal MLA he finished his days sitting with Fred Nile in the Council.
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:31 pm
rua:
from NSW govt website:
http://www.sexualassault.nsw.gov.au/VOSA/sexual_assault_victims.html
I guess it is a question about the touching allegations.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Ian Posted Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 7:08 pm | Permalink
(
One of the more magical of lifes lessons is the vague understanding of heart. Not the pump, the gateway to the soul.
The amount of toxins it can absorb. The weights life and passion put upon it. When, finally, the poisons and toxins become to much we have days of sadness, disappointment and an all)
Ian your thoughts go with my philosophy on life,
Every day i read a blogg i will leave the link for you.
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Centre,
All it would take is one journalist with the guts (and the integrity) to corner him, put some hard questions to him and INSIST he answer. No wriggling out accepted, no spin, no platitudes, no slogans, no distractions, just answers – full, coherent, truthful answers.
I reckon he’d crack under the strain, and react in a most… shall we say… spectacular fashion.
by Cuppa on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Maybe Tony Abbott will wimp out and do SWF about Slipper. That is my bet.
by ruawake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:33 pm
For ian,
Or any one with lime minds
http://hopeandrelevance.wordpress.com/
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:33 pm
With like minds,
Funny that my neighbour just gave us a bucket of lime .s
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:34 pm
There are zero allegations that Slipper touched anyone.
by ruawake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:34 pm
If Slipper stands down and gives his support to the LNP then the government falls if Wilkie votes “no confidence” as he has intimated.
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:35 pm
OC
Love it! And you are right about Reba as well.
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:35 pm
SMH has changed again.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-claims-need-testing-albanese-20120421-1xdcy.html
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:37 pm
well:
from this side of the paywall:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/speaker-peter-slipper-to-defend-claims-of-sexual-advances/story-e6freuy9-1226334881630
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Campbell was seen leaving Ken’s of Kensington -a bath house specialising in older Gay men. I am told that it is commonly called “Gorillas in the Mist”
by Oakeshott Country on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:37 pm
ModLib
Is this actually alledged on are you just attempting to up the debate by making a stand alone statement that you can say was ‘true’ as such?
by CTar1 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
If Slipper stands down and gives his support to the LNP then the government falls if Wilkie votes “no confidence” as he has intimated.
mod libs
wilkie says he will not support politically motivated no confidence which this will be
and its the liberal party who is doing the misconduct not the government
plus katter said has indicated he will not support frivolous no confidence motion as this would be by the liberal party
by Meguire Bob on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
kezza2
Gillard alienated me the day she proclaimed in her Gough Whitlam Oration, on the 31 March 2011:
http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/speech-inaugural-whitlam-institute-gough-whitlam-oration-sydney
Yeah, as a Greens supporter and member, I took that as a personal attack.
by Pegasus on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:39 pm
ML
No false allegation, no apology necessary. You and rummel are indistinguishable most of the time.
Address this idiocy from you:
A minority government teetering on the edge of oblivion, that Abbott and the Noalition can’t push over, can’t win against, and don’t even look like being able to!! A speaker that the Noalition harassed until he walked away. Brilliant tactics from Abbott and Brough!!
The only ‘teetering’ I can see is the validity of your specious, stupid, empty assertion.
by muttleymcgee on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:39 pm
wilkie will be a liar and the independent version of Abtbot
if he goes against his own words
by Meguire Bob on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Mari if there where heaps of tasmanians here,, i probsbly woukd not, only becsuse this island every one knows ever one, truly thry seem to lol:-)
by my say on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
ModLib
Just for clarification, this is not a personal attack: “The only ‘teetering’ I can see is the validity of your specious, stupid, empty assertion.”
See the attack is on your assertion, not you.
by Astrobleme on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/loose_lips_could_sink_abbott_ship_2kXCjZ3w80lV8WFc0uMT1L
by guytaur on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
The Mod @1327,
That’s not penetration. At best it could be common assault (though highly unlikely).
Best that we don’t use the term “sexual assault” in relation to the Peter Slipper thing.
by drake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Centre, it is important to remember that Abbott is Murdoch’s man and still follows orders. He worked for him, can be seen entering HQ for discussions or down at Lygon St for a pep talk from one of Rupert’s main men. They are getting desperate about what is happening in the Empire and prepared to throw anything at saving home base.
by joe2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Interesting how you can comment on something you consider to be a favourable outcome to the Libs.
But you can’t comment on many posts calling you out for supporting the absolute greed of your favoured party.
I’d say you have no idea of the meaning of INTEGRITY.
And, yes, please try to justify it.
I’m all ears!
by kezza2 on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Oh shit I will never touch anyone again. What a load of bollocks.
by ruawake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Astrobleme:
She screwed up with the interview before the election
She screwed up with the interview with 7:30
It is a carbon tax, in its initial stages, but that is a technicality and can be argued reasonably either way.
It is a fixed price for a good or service and it is paid to the government.
You may be able to reference some fine print material that it is actually a levy, or a charge, or a payment or anything else you like, but it has enough of the features of a tax to warrant the use of that term. However, that is not the main issue from my perspective. It is her abject political incompetence, shown repeatedly, and across multiple issues (as listed above, generating many personal attacks as usual).
It is my opinion that she is an unmitigated disaster, and for every day she remains in power the Libs will probably end up with 3 or 4 days in government going forward!
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Pegasus,
Any chance you will graduate beyond cutting and pasting?
by Cuppa on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
The tragedy is Slipper finally found a role he was suited to.
If the allegations are true, then Labor should be fuming: you arrange someone a high office, you expect them to restrain their id.
Can Labor even afford to exercise damage control – if they require him to stand aside would he stay on the cross bench and support them?
Clinton survived much worse allegations, but as Bentsen said to Quayle …
by Graeme Orr on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Are you claiming that there have been no personal attacks on me tonight Astrobleme?
by Mod Lib on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Sexual harassment and sexual assault are two different things. One can the victim of sexual harassment without that harassment involving any assault, sexual or otherwise. Sexual assault does not need penetration as far as I am aware. Belting a guy in the cobblers with a baseball bat could be sexual assault, using his scrotum for macrame practice most certainly would be.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Labor will do the same as Abbott re Slipper, nothing. If Abbott had any balls he would move no confidence in The Speaker, but he hasn’t so he wont.
by ruawake on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
You are all stupid? get this no one cares and I mean the electorate , No one cares atm
by Joe6pack on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
guytaur @ 1336
Very interesting!
by MTBW on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Pegasus
I thought when I read it that that was a strange thing for her to say, at any level. Why offend so obviously.
by lizzie on Apr 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm