Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
WOW, the LNP did not require a single preference to form government!
That really was a hellavu win. Atkins says ALP internal polling is showing a knife edge (before the Slipper story). Apparently Reachtel may be polling on Tues, lets see.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:00 am
joe
I bet it never gets to court.
by Diogenes on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:02 am
They were released by DT, and my reading of Ashby’s reported replies were that he was saying “no” but I wouldn’t have characterised them as strongly as “cease and desist” myself.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:02 am
vic,
So what!
The allegations also reveal that Slipper changed procedures within the office so that Ashby had to go through another person to make an appointment to see Slipper.
Until we see what the response of Slipper or an agreed timeline narrative then pulling extraneous facts out means very little.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:04 am
poroti
Posted Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink
MARI
There will be people toasting to “The Downfall” on several continents. Till then a couple of Murdoch,Hitler Downfall parodies to keep you going.
Hitler Plans to throw a pie at Rupert Murdoch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfu0gyfHXQk
Downfall ,Rupert , BSkyB control and phone hacking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBxv7YSJRI8
Downfall Horsegate Parody
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVCkvBstTGk
I will look at them when I return as going out now, as I said you have an amazing library
BH 1894 Getting closer and closer now
by mari on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:06 am
GG
I agree. I will wait and see what Slipper has to say on the matter.
When the ALP offered the speakership to slipper, they were fully aware of his background. Surely they have wargamed this??
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:07 am
I hate the way that behaviour can be twisted by interpretation in this vindictive world.
Let me see.
I have frequently had a shower with the bathroom door open.
I have often touched a workmate/employee on the arm and said quietly, “Well done”.
I have brushed “intimately” against someone when passing through a narrow space.
I’ve never been sued yet.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:08 am
Vic:
The ALP has shown repeatedly that, whoever their “wise old men and women” are, they are certainly not listening to them!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:08 am
What are you saying lizzie? Are you making a judgement on the veracity of the litigant’s claim?
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:10 am
Could someone please explain to me WHY Slipper should step aside. The allegations against him are untested. Just because Abbott says he should? I don’t think so. He may; but as Slipper has said, the allegations are denied. Although one thing is for sure, Abbott pushing for him to step aside will certainly test Slipper’s ability to be independent. But that is not his fault. It is Abbott’s.
Mod Lib, I am not in denial here, but people should just take a deep breath and rationally analyse the situation. Slipper is innocent until things are proven otherwise. In addition, this is a civil, not criminal case. Sure, there may be a code of conduct that Confessions refrred to last night, but whether that has been breached is another matter.
Let’s wait and see.
Politically, it is a bad look for the Govt because it is portrayed that Slipper is holding the Govt up (which he is not – remember, Thomson is still a member of the HoR).
The Govt still has the numbers, with or without Slipper, no?
Business as usual.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:10 am
ML
I know the temptation for you and all Tories is to slobber at the mouth at the Slipper affair. I suggest you have a cold shower.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:11 am
Mod Lib,
What are you saying? Are you making a judgement on the veracity of the litigant’s claim?
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:11 am
Was it outlawed after “punchy” Rossiter’s troubles years ago?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:12 am
Mod Lib
I think we should all (media especially) take a calming pill and wait for more information.
That suggests that there was more to Ashby’s actions than he is admitting – naturally.
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:12 am
GG
Of course ML is. He is salivating.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:12 am
Lizzie
*snap*
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:13 am
the plot thickens…….. seeming like Ashby has taken a touch of the Godwins
the big hole in the story is that it is based on Slipper being gay
meanwhile, up on the Sunshine Coast
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/04/22/ashby-link-man-shocked-claims/
by sprocket_ on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:13 am
Lynchpin,
And, he should close the door!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:13 am
That’s three deep breaths and a cold shower on this page.
Commonsense may yet prevail on PB!
by lizzie on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:13 am
I notice the paper says the gov , numbers would fall ect. If slipper stands aside
Yes ok but the ind, would go up.
Anna burke tne speeker, very good also
Msmwe can think for ourselves u know
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:14 am
Lyne Lady @ 1766 re Bongiorno quote
With respect I think this quote is not Paul’s. I can’t find where he has said it. It does appear on a blog somewhere near a cut/paste of his twitter feed but it is unlikely to be his quote.
by Phil Vee on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:14 am
Like Mr Thomson this whole situation is being argued on the basis of nothing more than what the MSM puts out. We should all take s a deep breath.
Mr Thomson was going to bring the government down, Mr Slipper will bring the government down, the “debacle” re the Senate vacancy was a national crisis etc etc. Something is always going to bring the government down.
Seems to be a bit of a pattern here !
None of it will bring the government down.
Have a great day all.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:15 am
Absolutely not, GG, and I noted your posts about his background, but all of that is irrelevant to the question of the veracity of his claims.
Lizzie was suggesting that there was nothing wrong with touching an arm and saying “well done”. If the individual felt that was sexually harrassment then that needs investigation. I can understand the ALP panic, but it needs to be examined.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:15 am
now an Independent member, whose alleged indiscretions also occurred while he was a sitting Liberal member
whose alleged indiscretions occurred before he had even entered parliament.
In what bloody parallel universe is the current PM responsible for the behaviour of a person who isn’t and never has been a member of her political party and a man who has been perfectly well behaved since entering federal parliament?
This whole situation – aided and abetted by our bloody media – is giving me the screaming skidmarks.
John Howard was never held personally responsible for the behaviour of his – or other Party/Independent – MPs, so why the hell should Gillard? In fact, the media actively protected Howard when his MPs misbehaved … and let’s remember there were PLENTY of examples, which is why he set up and then abandoned the code of conduct.
Where the hell was the media then? Why was it only a “system failure” then, rather than “Howard’s problem”?
Oh, and is it just me or is wheeling out Bronwyn “Kerosene Baths” Bishop to criticise someone else’s moral compass particularly offensive?
by Danny Lewis on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:16 am
lynchpin:
Well that’s not going to happen. Media are in a state of frenzy right now. You could see that clearly on Insiders where Dennis Atkins, who I normally rate as at least somewhat reasonable, seemed to be on the verge of wetting his pants.
by Fiz on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:16 am
My say
I may be wrong, but what has changed since the previous ALP speaker resigned that position? I think the numbers go back to where they were, with Wilkie’s vote required by the Govt.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:17 am
Fiz
Agreed. But that is nothing new. I rate Atkins also.
I am not overly worried yet.
Are we seeing Peak Abbott?
Still a long way to go in this race.
Still a lot that the Tory State Govts can do to help Labor’s cause federally.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:18 am
Danny Lewis:
Who wrote that?
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:20 am
Mod Lib,
Vracity? If he’s done this sort of thing before. Why wouldn’t he do it again?
Sure the veracity needs to be questioned. But that only means that all sides of the story need to be heard before any facts are established.
But, that is not going to be fairly done in the media and on blogs.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:20 am
Lynchpin:
Just a classic post! It was more than a year ago when I first saw this posted, and here we are at 56-44 (or worse for the ALP).
Peak Abbott! LOL
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:20 am
It is only Abbott and Wilkie saying Slipper should step aside.
Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:21 am
Danny Lewis,
Labor is held to higher standards than the conservatives.
Says it all, about which side *has* standards.
It’s like with the media all falling in line behind the conservative party. Knowing it couldn’t make it anywhere without all the boosting.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:22 am
The puzzle continues with Yahoo7 on line news
Usually they would have anti-Gillard stuff on the lead with a glum looking JG as a picture. They are no friend of Labor.
And to be fair, when something goes a little badly for Abbott similar glum picture of him turns up.
Often these items stay for 24 hours.
Yesterday, Yahoo7 started with the Slipper thing in a blaze of glory and then it disappeared. I look this morning and while it is true to say the reports from ABC and AAP on Slipper are there tucked away – that is reports, on reports – nothing from 7.
This is very, very odd. One would think they would jump on the NewsLtd-ABC bandwagon and flog this story to death.
Do they know something we do not?
And……….I find it odd that a Catholic university professor from Queensland is the only “expert” opinion the ABC has cared to tap into – at least on the radio news.
But to give the offering its due, it must be there for comedy purposes as it was to do with the “morality” of the Slipper affair.
Where has the good professor been when we have seen the opposition and its leader trash the institutions of government for the last 18 months and by tacit implication, the PM herself.
Hypocrite.
I trust, as some of the opposition become enmeshed in this nasty business, he continues to talk “morality” though with both eyes open.
When talk about media bias is concerned it is events like this which really nails the issue down.
Oh, and by the way, in a survey of just over 1000 people run by the Sunday Times in Perth, 68% said “Slipper should step down”.
I am surprised 1000 people in Perth even know who Slipper is which means the survey was probably done in the offices of the Sunday Times and friends of those who work there.
A confected issue by NewsLtd.
There will be tears before all this is out and not only on the progressive side of politics.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:22 am
I have put channel 10 on while waiting for meet the press.
Bolt: Milne is a very charismatic leader.
I know he is setting up for a hatchet job. Still it is praise. He has had Peter Costello and Natasha Stott Despoja as guests. Must be getting desperate for press coverage and credibility.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:24 am
ML, just throwing it out there. I agree, he seems to be at the top of things at the moment, but I also see rumblings in the ranks. Only 14% of people think the ALP can win the next election. The media in some parts is starting to look more closely at the obvious tensions and inconsistencies in the Liberal Party. You may be right. He might reach even gigher in the polls. Who knows.
A week is a long time in politics, as Latham found out.
Don’t write this Govt off yet.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:24 am
“gigher” = “higher”
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:25 am
ML:
None of them were. In fact, nothing like it. I’d say Savva is confusing the text exchanges with the claims of conversations Ashby had with Slipper.
It’s quite clever reportage, actually. The reported conversations are there to provide context to the text messages, which don’t look like anything at all by themselves. All the salacious stuff is unprovable, and had no witnesses.
by Aguirre on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:26 am
BTW,
I believe that Mr Slippers chief adviser also stayed in the same flat in Canberra as Mr Slipper and Mr Ashby. Was he in Canberra on the same days in question as part of the allegations ?
It will be interesting when witnesses are asked to respond. Does Mr Ashby have any to back up his allegations re conversations he had with Mr Slipper ?
Mr Ashby has a great memory in that he can remember exact dates on which conversations were held and he can remember pretty much word for word the exact content of said conversations.
Hope Mr Ashby has his dates right.
Just a few off the top of my head observations.
As I said we should all take a deep breath.
by Doyley on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:27 am
I watched the Insiders Liberal Party Branch meeting on their ABC this morning and have come to the conclusion that it isn’t worth the cost of the electricity to watch it.
Far better value to go outside for an hour and watch the grass grow!
by scorpio on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:27 am
Well said. That’s not forgetting the Australia Day debacle which apparently was orchestrated by Gillard to discredit Abbott and steal thunder away from her own photo op. That was going to bring them down, as was the cabinet reshuffle at the end of last year, and then throwing out the gauntlet to Rudd.
OPT’s written the most sensible likely outcome. Slipper will take some flak over this but he’s got the hide of a rhino and is in a situation exactly like Mal Coulston. How did that damage Howard? Of course, it is a different meme today with Gillard being blamed for everything, but I can’t see any lasting damage.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:27 am
I am not saying he will reach even higher in the polls (is there any higher to go at a Federal level?), just that it is amazing that we are back at that point from over a year ago! I laughed at the suggestion in April 2011 and I laugh more heartily at it now! However, by definition, the longer you go and the more often people post “Peak Abbott” the closer we will actually get to it, because, as you say, everything eventually changes in politics…
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:27 am
Says it all really
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:28 am
Take is back a little on Yahoo 7 – again from AAP – question – that is all – about whether Slipper should “step aside” with report of Abbott saying so (obviously) and Wilkie chiming in for his own purposes.
Still no glum looking picture of Slipper/Gillard or whoever.
Maybe my faith will be restored and the glum picture is to come.
Or…………just maybe………7 has got it right and recognised that for 98% of the population they don’t really give a toss.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:29 am
Agreed, Tricot. The Libs are jumping all over an essentially private issue. Normally the affairs of MPs is off the table. We shall see. I wonder if Slipper has a dirt file.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:29 am
The law of Australian political coverage since Gillard became PM is that everything bad is her fault, just because. Its her personal failure for not being omnipotent over all political members at all times of their lives, I suppose.
by rishane on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:30 am
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:31 am
Gillard and Albanese thought they were very clever in recruiting Slipper for Speaker and getting an extra seat buffer on the floor.
Too clever by half it appears.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:32 am
I think most of the population just think that Abbott’s and the Tories’ beat up of this is the sort of grubby political opportunism we all should expect from politicians in general.
BTW, where is Chris Pyne recently? I haven’t seen his ruddy complexion in the news for a while now.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:32 am
Insiders is fast losing credibility. Spending so much time on a supposed scandal and not nearly enough on policy. Yes the scandal story is important. That important I think not. A lot of people think not. It may become one in the future. At this point in time it is not. They could have spend 20 minutes on the scandal and still covered it effectively.
As I said previously I think the cartoonist section had the priorities right.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:32 am
Mod Lib
“Lizzie was suggesting that there was nothing wrong with touching an arm and saying “well done”. If the individual felt that was sexually harrassment then that needs investigation.”
How is touching an arm construed as “sexual harrassment”?
by ausdavo on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:32 am