Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
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by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:18 pm
My post at 202 is audio of Twiggy interview
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Just kidding.
You gotta love the DT. Not even minor floods. Just warnings.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:18 pm
poroti plus comment 172
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
mari
And now the song “Schadenfreude’ .THE highlight being the line
Football players getting tackled.Seeing CEO’s getting shackled
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCQGQ5qBQTA
Poroti you must have the most amazing library, I love what you post especially about our main hates the Murdochs. Can hardly to see CEOS of News Ltd being shackled
by mari on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:20 pm
ABC TV Sydney News plays it straight, quoting Tony Abbot saying:
Un-be-f**king-lieveable.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Heard this today
libs will win the next election, the electorate have already made up their minds , much like with Howard in 2007. Nothing around the edges will mater. Labor stuffed up their time in power and will be out again for at least 3 terms. High hopes let down.
From a ex labor mp up north.
by Joe6pack on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Can I tweet that poroti?
by jenauthor on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Of course Tony Abbott is a Conservationist. It means he wants to conserve, just as a Conservative wants to conserve.
He wants nothing to change, his tiny mind will explode if required to think.
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Mod lib has such gloomy imagination,
Enjoy her hloomy perspetive n life.
And her happiness fai,yre
But gee bet she would rather
be in one of our nursing homes, not tone
Cone on mod lib you know would U S E! it jydt like mei care. Ect
Whst hypocrites you are
Night
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:26 pm
People skills
I am the best friend Medicare ever had
We are all environmentalists now
You have to admit, he knows how to hit his weaknesses head on and diffuse them!
by Mod Lib on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Just like medi care ect
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Haven’t a clue what you are saying My say…
by Mod Lib on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:27 pm
jenauthor
Go for it.
by poroti on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:28 pm
I’m feeling a gut level twinge of uncertainty and for the first time in a long time, it’s not due to the stupidity of the ALP …
We’ll see if it remains over the coming months
by spur212 on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:31 pm
[Dr John
Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
Wow – Crikey pulling numerous posts right at this moment!!!!!
They missed the #180 referred to above however, which with many others has been deleted.
Have Crikey reacted enough to potential anti-privacy litigation and potential criminal action?
We will see!
by Dr John on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Joe 6 pack the bearer of imaginary friends,
You said so e weeks ago the very opposite.’
Drinking with a few mates, they want vote for to tony,
Remember that. I do
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Thanks mari, my fingers pkay tricks on me
Mari we are thimking of a cruise in the southwest of uk, then to france, just had an email from our travel sgent. Its on land and criuse in between,
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:37 pm
You know what Abbott’s like with big words. That is, words longer than one syllable. He’s got “conservationist” confused with “conservative”. Best he stick with kindergarten talk – Great Big Tax – and the like… doesn’t want to strain the brain…
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Cuppa:
You make a mistake by underestimating Abbott.
I don’t want him to be PM, but not because he isn’t smart, he is.
Very.
by Mod Lib on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:40 pm
180
Thats still there thats just me asking mari about HER link
Which i then clicked on,
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Dr John, I’ve replied to your email. I’m not going to allow any of this to play out on PB.
by William Bowe on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Just watching an item on NSW 7.30 (state) about bikies and tattoo parlours.
Can one of the Bludgers please explain to me exactly what is the fascination with tattoo parlours among criminal bikie gangs?
Drive-by shootings, murders, disappearances, arson, standover tactics etc.
What’s the deal?
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Well, if he says it, it must be so. May as well give up now.
by Gary on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:42 pm
24 hour shop fronts to sell stuff.
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:44 pm
_
179
my say Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00 min mark) http://bit.ly/J0CDQ1
Loved it I couldn’t stop
Seems to be missing
See dr john, the post is still there you must of mis read, hapoens easy enougj
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:44 pm
180
Still there
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Yes, yes, of course he is.
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:48 pm
BoF’s laws on patched gangs will achieve absolutely nothing.
by ruawake on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Hes certainly doing a right little number on the incumbent (having seen off her predecessor)…
by Mod Lib on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Passing on info Gary , but probably pretty close to the mark.
by Joe6pack on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:52 pm
ModLib
I’d call it rat cunning!
by Dee on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Abbott is not a smart operative.
His numerous minders are.
by confessions on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:53 pm
180 180
mari Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
Space Kidette Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Clip via @wrightgb , Coalition canvasses system of making kids pay for parents aged care (at 4:00
Loved it I couldn’t stop laughing
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:54 pm
It’s all based on an edifice of bullshit and whether he wins the next election or not, that edifice of bullshit will come crashing down.
by Gary on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:54 pm
SK – thanks for the Faine interview link. Like mari I cracked up – CFW was all over the shop and I didn’t know Faine had it in him to challenge a Liberal like that. Top listening for a Labor supporter for a change,
by BH on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:55 pm
A lot still to happen.
by Gary on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:55 pm
A comment someone posted on Their Drum Unleashed…
by Cuppa on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Bugger off with the football scores. I’m watching WIN.
by This little black duck on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:56 pm
spur212
Uncertainty in which direction?
by victoria on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Confessions:
You may be right!
Whether it is him or his advisers, they are wiping the floor with Gillard and her advisers.
by Mod Lib on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Joe you talk to 6 other people you get a different answer.
Some times’people agree with you though just to make conversation
I know would not but some’people do that
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 7:57 pm
I think people are attributing too much influence to Abbott for the polls. He’s despised like Gillard. I put it down to the carbon tax. Let’s see how that plays out.
by Gary on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Mod .ib u know thats not correct,’its wno gets the best media of the day
Julia does not do stuntsl
She does policy it boring, for the media
But it was in years gone by their duty to inform
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:00 pm
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2169177/mexico-senate-approves-historic-climate-change
by Dee on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:00 pm
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/wilkie-government-pokies-reform-dance-continues/story-e6freonf-1226334703154
by Leroy on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Mod Lib:
It’s pretty clear to anyone who’s ever watched the two of them in press conferences and interviews that the PM has far more substance than Abbott.
I’ve long been of the view that Gillard needs to rely less on her advisors, because the natural person she is is someone the public instinctively warms to. Abbott OTOH….
by confessions on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:01 pm
No one cares
by Joe6pack on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:02 pm
gary,
you always bring us back to earth.
Thank you. Night all
by my say on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:02 pm
So do I.
by confessions on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:02 pm
I also think the state of the world economy and Australia’s patchwork economy is also playing out in the polls. Who do you blame when you’re feeling financially threatened? The government of course and particularly one that’s bringing in a GBNT.
by Gary on Apr 20, 2012 at 8:03 pm