Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition
Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).
The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.
The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.
UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.
Also:
• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.
• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.
• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Lynchpin,
Exactly what I posted last night. The problem with mandatory standing down is exactly that, the party political operatives would be out in force making tactical allegations.
It is a different point to say that individuals would need to weigh up their positions, and the impact on the office and the country, when deciding whether or not to stand down.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:55 am
Lynchpin: sorry; taking a while to catch up.
One of the perils of Poll Bludgering when you are doing other things
In answer to your question, the quote was from Samantha Maiden’s article this morning.
by Danny Lewis on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:56 am
Slipper in the hands of a major law firm, eh?
Well shit blue lights. Plenty of crap claims have passed through the hands of major law firms, with sweet FA to show for it.
I’m pretty certain he’s still sleeping at night.
by smithe on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:56 am
Vic
Albo is no fool and apparently Slipper is extremely tough… let’s wait and see what happens now he’s back and the dust settles…. it will surprise me if this doesn’t all blow up in steve lewis’ face (cracks starting to show already)….
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:57 am
Great post Tricot, thanks. The Tories really are hypocrites when it comes to morality.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:57 am
Such comments are designed to provoke. I don’t see the panic here. People are saying “wait and see”. How is that panic?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
What you should be “going with” is the question: WHY do the Liberals need the support of all the media?
Surely if they were any good they would be able to make their own way in the world without the constant support.
Their ideology says that individuals should be self-reliant. But as a political party there are none more reliant than them on constant unanimous support.
It isn’t just hypocritical, it indicates their toxicity that they need all the media in the country doing propaganda/brainwashing duties on their behalf.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
Smithe
Ashby is in the hands of a major law firm.
Amazing how these people get the money to pay lawyers. On both sides.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
Thanks Danny.
by Lynchpin on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:58 am
Is it plausible that the Liberal Party could be held responsible for alleged indiscretions, re:Slipper?
by Dee on Apr 22, 2012 at 10:59 am
Lynchpin:
Let me make it perfectly clear, it is in the long term interests of the Libs that things stay just as it is right now! Status quo is just golden for the Libs. ALP tarnished with Thomson and Slipper and anything that happens from this point onwards is so tarnished.
All those in the public who disagree with the government’s decisions on ANYTHING from this point forward (and there are always things people disagree with) have the added angle, “Oh, its only because of x and y that they managed to get that through”. Remember what happened to the Democrats? Thats an example of what I am talking about.
This stuff is Brand damage gold and it is absolutely brilliant for Liberals if nothing changes. When something aint broke, don’t fix it. Of course Abbott will be out there stoking the fire, why wouldn’t he?
In 10 years time, when reflecting back, it will be absolutely clear, that the best thing for the ALP would be to have an early election while Abbott is still there, dampening the landslide. Limping on, giving the Libs time to change leaders could be an unmitigated catastrophe for the ALP for a very, very long time!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:00 am
Dee
If the AFP investigation uncovers criminal behaviour back in Howard era and a cover up then yes. Accessories to crime could be one charge.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
smithe
Trust all is well? Anyhow, as far as I can tell, it is Ashby whose case is with major law firm. Not sure what Slipper is doing yet. He has returned home this morning.
I am keeping an eye on any tweets he may put out
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
Cuppa:
I completely understand your fear in answering the specific question I put to you, as it might send you house of cards tumbling down!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:01 am
Mod Lib
Greg Hunt did not answer the question asked by Malcolm Farr on Meet the Press
Paraphrase
Can you promise electricity prices will come down under a Coalition Government.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:03 am
ML
I would never take any advice given by you. The govt are doing what they need to do to implement good reforms for this country. As Richo said, “whatever it takes”. After all that is how your side operates. They are doing whatever it takes to bring down this govt. why should they roll over because you and the lib cheersquad tell them too. Do you seriously think the govt had no idea that the Slipper matter may have come to this point??
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:03 am
Removing the carbon tax will decrease electricity prices, however, there are other factors that determine electricity prices, not just the carbon tax. Its a trick question which he handled well.
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:04 am
Yep. James Ashby is actually suing the Commonwealth Govt over claims it failed to act over decade-old allegations. And guess who failed to act then, 2003 etc.
And the Parliament elected Slipper as the Speaker, not the Gillard Minority Govt, a slight in convenient truth
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:05 am
If the Libs are that satisfied why are they trying to bring the government down early? If they are that convinced they’ve got the next election in the bage why bother with this BS?
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:05 am
Victoria,
Yes, and how different it would be if all the shock jocks in the land spent their days calling Abbott out on his many lies.
Instead of “Juliar”, cries of “Phoney Tony” every few minutes, broadcast to cities and regions across the continent.
And imagine the effect on Liberal polling if the shock jocks thundered every day about how the Liberals want to support billionaires and give it to working people in the neck.
And so on and so on.
I wonder how long the Liberal Party would survive under that level of media honesty.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:06 am
Mod Lib
How did Utegate go for Malcolm Turnbull?
This has the same journalist writing about accusations.
I would have thought you would be more considered in your response due to this.
How about seeing the evidence tested before you condemn.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:06 am
Richo was referring to the ALP side actually, not the Lib side!
I certainly do think the govt has no idea. They have proven this time and again!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:06 am
For anyone who believes this I have a bridge they may like to acquire.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:07 am
These things have all been said before re the liberals re the other case that slipped in to history
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:07 am
Mod Lib
If you thought Greg Hunt handled the question well you have a different definition of competence than I do.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:07 am
Brilliant and complete contradiction by ML at 2000. Piroette and bow! Applause!
Morning PBS!
by Gweneth on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:09 am
Here’s the Liberal dilemma:
Abbott is personally unpopular, but if they switched from him to someone popular like Turnbull, they’d lose the line they had and the Coalition base would become disilusioned and split to other minor parties. Not to mention the fact that the Nationals would split.
Yes, Abbott is holding them back electorally, but if they got rid of him, they’d collapse. This will become more of a dilemma if the ALP manage to survive to the end of the term or if the Coalition under Abbott start to decline in the polls.
by spur212 on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:09 am
ML:
I wrote a fairly big post on this the other night. I’ll re-hash:
“Trounced” is a flexible term here. If you’re talking about poll figures, yes it’s true. But Abbott is in an interesting situation in the parliament: thanks to minority government he can actually have a say in getting bills up, and getting them passed, if he’s smart enough to work with the cross-benchers. Most of whom come from traditional Coalition heartland.
On the floor he’s failing utterly. He’s been powerless to prevent some big-ticket items from becoming legislation. He hasn’t been able to negotiate with anyone who really matters.
And this is because he’s chosen to conduct his entire political strategy through the media instead of within parliament. Where he’s being trounced. Within the house, he’s frittered away nearly two years of opportunities on points of order, SSOs and meaningless MPIs. He’s preferred to make grandiose speeches about nothing every sitting day rather than giving ALP policy the scrutiny he could be giving it.
He’s an effective rabble-rouser, no doubt about it. And when he stays on message, he cuts through to the public. But since he became opposition leader in late 2009, that’s all he’s done. Politically speaking, he’s done nothing at all. He hasn’t even put together a policy platform. And he can’t even unite his own party behind him.
That’s what you get for concentrating on polls at the expense of everything else.
by Aguirre on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:09 am
Whom have I condemned?
At the time, although I wasn’t here, I said utegate would take down either Rudd or Abbott, which turned out to be right!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:11 am
I think we all know it wasn’t utegate that did the trick. LOL.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:12 am
Mod, dont crack the champagne too soon, i smell #Utegate Mark 2
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:12 am
ABC News reporting Tony Windsor has made the same points as Albo about due process.
Thus no confidence motion not happening. No Speaker stepping down.
All that Insiders talk this morning a lot of hot air.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:13 am
spur212
I guess that is why this Slipper saga is the last roll of the dice for Abbott.
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:13 am
Phil
you could well be right – just shows how hard it is to distinguish between authentic and not authentic…
by Lyne Lady on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:14 am
gweneth
Good morning. Mod Lib used to be more even handed, but now just a partisan hack!!!
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
Mod LIb
You have condemned Gillard and Labor along with Slipper as having failed in the court of public opinion.
We do not know this. No polling done yet. Nothing has happened in Parliament or Courts to change public opinion.
All still to be seen.
by guytaur on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:15 am
The Libs are shit scared that the CT will come in and people will get used to it. Hence this campaign to get Labor out early.
by Gary on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:16 am
my say
Despite confessions’ inferences in a post last which caused you to assume that I am a “liberal” please be assured that I am not and nor is daretotread.
Twenty seven years of ALP membership and holding an assortment of executive positions let alone working for three ALP members would indicate that.
daretotread is still an active ALP member in Queensland.
by MTBW on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:16 am
Good morning Gweneth, and thank you!
by Mod Lib on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:18 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Close
@jonkudelka Should i complete that? Let he who is without sin cast the first Slipper
by The Finnigans on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:18 am
Well that shows how wrong you are again. I didn’t read your “specific question”.
by Cuppa on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:18 am
Surley slipper would vote w ith the gov. If he stood dow n
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:19 am
Victoria
The wheels of justice grind slowly.
by shellbell on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:19 am
Well, as I think several others have pointed, the initial impact of the Slipper allegations has already been felt: Friday’s well received Aged Care proposals are already out of the headlines – just look at this thread. On a purely tactical basis, the Murdoch press have played their role very well.
On the question of longer term impact, a lot now I think depends on Slipper’s own reaction; even at best the Labor Government may well still be caught up in an “aura” of sleaze, with parts of the press doing everything possible to keep that alive. However judging from the similar (but not identical) Mal Colston business, the Libs may well suffer some fallout – I would hope so.
In the end and there being no other surprises, the major impact will be loss of clear air to get out a positive Labor message.
F
by Fil R on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:20 am
integrate did not take down either Rudd or Abbott.
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:20 am
(ML at 2000. Piroette and bow! Applause!)
Havi g been to much local ballet thats when real ballerinnas leave the stage
by my say on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:21 am
Mod Lib,
The counter to your little wet dream about going to an election early to take out Abbott now is that Labor know that Abbott is a loser and are confident they can take him anytime a their discretion.
Abbott lost the last election, spectacularly failed to duchess the conservative independents,and has been unable to stop any legislation pass the Parliament (save for Off shore processing which is actually his party’s policy). Despite havng the MSM cheering from the bleachers he’s still not particularly popular, his economic policies are (to be kind) confused and he has been indulging in the longest dummy spit that australian politics has ever seen.
Gillard and co will take Abbott and the LNP when they are good and ready.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:21 am
Ute gate did not take down either Rudd or Abbott (damn self correct functions)
by zoomster on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:21 am
And to put a bit of cold shower on some of our more excitable conservative friends……………..
From the the local Murdoch rag on Slipper……….
Q: What happens if Slipper refuses to step aside?
(Of course, this question begs the one as to whether he should”
A: Depends on whether the coalition (a) moves a motion and (b) it gets supported by the independents…”the opposition only has 74 votes”
(Bit of a dead end there for the conservatives.)
Q:Can the PM remove Slipper as Speaker?
A: No – he is appointed by parliament
(A myth debunked even by the Murdoch minion)
Q: Will the government be forced to an early election?
A: No (Explains that government vote drops by one but assumes says nothing about Slippers vote if he went to the cross bench. I doubt he would vote with the conservatives now.)
Q: Who would become speaker if…………
A: Someone else selected by the government and agreed to by parliament
And the doozy, salivating question………..
Q:What about Craig Thompson………….
A: Well, of course, what about Craig Thompson?
So, folks, in a nutshell from one of Murdoch’s papers.
As I have mentioned, the hard facts even the Murdoch press admits.
This is nothing more than a sophisticated attempt to work our when your footy team is just outside the 8, and there is one more game to go, the mathematical probability of whether we can get into the 8 when all the cards fall the right way.
Desperation is the name of the game by them.
And the final gem from the Sunday Times:
Q:Could the Governor-General be involved?
(See, they don’t forget do they? Get into power corrupting one Governor-General in 1975 and maybe we can do it all over again?
A: Conceivably yes though the Gillard government maintains this is unlikely.
(I wonder who wrote this?) It is conceded it would take a vote of no confidence in the government which ain’t going to happen – all other things being equal.
What are we left with really/
Trial by (and a civil action at that) by the Murdoch media – by and large – the and ABC cheer squad.
Finally, the sub-head did get it somewhere near right by claiming ‘Scandal rocks Slipper” which as moved on from the “explosive/time bomb/destroy government/Gillard” stuff of yesterday.
Oh to be living in interesting times.
I still feel the conservatives – and the Murdoch press – will rue this.
When you elect to throw mud it tends to splatter on more than one target and it still sticks to the hands of the thrower.
by Tricot on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:22 am
shellbell
I did work in legal for a long while, but out of the loop also a long time now. I recall matters in the federal Court hearings usually giving directives very quickly upon a hearing? I am obviously mistaken
by victoria on Apr 22, 2012 at 11:22 am